Monday Forecast

147 Comments

7:45AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 5-9)…
(Apologies for having to edit to add this discussion, albeit very short, hours later.)
Post-tropical storm Hermine will do a cyclonic loop south of New England and the contrast between it and high to the north will tighten the wind field and cause more wind today into Tuesday. As Hermine weakens and eventually falls apart midweek, just some leftover cloudiness and a few showers are possible. By late in the week, the feel of summer returns.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Risk of showers afternoon southeastern and eastern MA as well as RI. More humid. Highs 68-77. Wind E 5-15 MPH inland and 15-30 MPH coast with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers/downpours. Humid. Lows 60-68. Wind E to NE 10-20 MPH inland and 15-30 MPH east coast, 25-35 MPH south coast, with higher gusts especially South Coast.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers. Humid. Highs 68-78, coolest South Coast. Wind E to NE 15-30 MPH and gusty, diminishing gradually later in the day.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers possible. Humid. Breezy at times. Lows 60-68. Highs 75-83, coolest coastal areas.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 62-68. Highs 78-86, coolest South Coast.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 62-70. Highs 80-92, coolest South Coast.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 10-14)…
A few showers/thunderstorms possible during the September 10-11 period but likely just isolated and mainly rain-free during this time. Generally dry September 12-14. Warm to hot conditions expected.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 15-19)…
Pattern will favor limited shower threats and continued mainly above normal temperatures.

147 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  3. The apple crop is down 15% due to the drought so I guess whatever rain we get will be too little and waaay too late.

    Thanks TK!

  4. Thanks TK.
    looking out there to next Sunday and of course taking this with grain of salt 6z GFS showing some pretty good severe weather parameters.

  5. Any fall fruit, is not going to be good this year for two reasons. One the frost issues of spring and also the drought. More to do with the frost killing the blossoms back in the spring. This is from my grandfather who grows vegetables and several types of fruit.

  7. Good morning and thank you TK for the update.

    You know what Hermine was/is good for? Showing the gross inadequacies of the
    Computer models. Each run, either 6 or 12 hours apart, totally and completely different.
    They didn’t have a clue what Hermine was going to do. They still don’t

    Will it even rain in Boston? Now the GFS predicts the most rain of all things.

    We shall see. The rain is onto the Cape. How far she goes, nobody knows.

    12Z NAM and current HRRR says rain to Boston around 18-20Z or 2-4PMISH.
    Again, we shall see about that. I sure hope so.

    1. That’s ok. We didn’t have to wait for the event to unfold. SAK and I gave everyone a big heads-up on the model issues… 😉

      But yes, great example!

      1. I have the sense the discussion, similar to the anticipation of whatever is to come, is a good part of the enjoyment. Even I know models are more fickle than Mother Nature. But look at the fun everyone has had with give and take for weeks. To me, that is what sets this blog apart from all others. People can do what they love most. For some it is following the models, posting the links and then discussing them with others, all the while knowing they may be no more than a fairy tale. For others, like myself, it is part learning and part loving that others are also excited by the beauty and passion of nature. And it is all done with respect.

        Rarely do you find that combination and you give that to us here, TK. Thank you. Heck, without the countless hours you put in and without your expertise, we would lose something very special. The icing on the cake is the WHW family and the discussion and unlimited knowlege on many topics. Both parts make an amazing whole.

          1. Thank you, JPD. It did not go unnoticed the other night and then morning when you were out. Your posts were clearly missed. I think it is the same for all who post here.

  13. My gut tells me it won’t rain much at all in Boston. Nor will there be much wind. 5 on the Beaufort scale is about all we’ll get. And that’s considered a light breeze in places accustomed to wind. No rain today and only a couple of showers at best tomorrow. This storm will likely be a Nantucket special before kicking out to sea. I think they do reach gale force (8+ on the Beaufort scale) and get several inches of rain.

  22. Another breezy day. We must have had at least one healthy gust as a heavy ceramic planter was over on the deck when I got home!

  23. The only tropical storm force winds that I’ve been able to locate are on Nantucket Sound. And even there it’s barely tropical storm force wind (~40mph). Heck, in Boston we often get 40mph gusts with strong cold fronts.

    1. Sounds about right . Let’s move on to the heat . Can we get a heatwave is some part of New England starting Thursday , I suspect in some parts yes we do in western areas .

  24. Clouds thickening up.

    Maybe that batch of heavy showers north of PTown won’t completely fall apart before making it to the south shore.

      1. Good question. I don’t know as we just returned from camping.

        Judging by the wind, which is fairly strong, I’d assume the waves are big and the ocean is all white caps.

        High tide is right about now.

  25. SSK – Yes, we may get another heatwave. Certainly in the interior a possibility. Not my cup of hot tea, as you know. I prefer my tea iced. But, I know you like it. For you it’ll be a nice closing chapter to a hot summer.

    1. I do like it Josh but I also respect the folks who don’t and for the people like Mrs oldsalty who basically gets crippled by it the poor thing . It’s been a great summer and great for all the folks who shelled out big bucks for vacation rentals . I’ll be curious to see if Boston hits 90 again I bet they do it. As Tk has said it’s going to be a Warm fall. I think Boston if they don’t hit 90 again I think they might be close as long as the forecast holds .

  27. Fine line between hype and talking up. It is a holiday weekend, so it was important to have the weather situation in the forefront.

    As far as the forecast tracks? They were not great, but probably better than anyone else would have done. Not an easy situation this time. Let’s face the facts and not kid ourselves here.

    I have an errand to run and then I’ll be back to edit the blog to add a discussion after 4PM.

  32. It’s been a busy wknd. We were out doing errands and visiting neighbors. This morning I was out with a friend – browsing in some stores and grabbing some pizza. I notice that it is windy – but not a steady wind. More gusts that come up here in Sudbury. It’s not cool or warm out – kind of weird. Almost feels like one is at the beach. But then the wind is out of the east – can almost smell the ocean.

    I don’t know if anyone would remember or know – have there ever been any tropical systems near New England that meandered around for days and we couldn’t predict what it was going to do? I will make my own prediction about any rain tomorrow – especially around here – none or very little rain! What a tease – a lot of rain not that far away and we miss it – unless something changes.

  33. Wind has gusted as high as 32 mph at the airport. Steady wind has been as high as 28 mph. Currently 23 mph.

    It’s a pleasant kind of windy here. Feels nice blowing through the house.
    OH so much better than that HHH puke!

    1. Agree re wind. Although I may have to close window nearest to where I’m sitting, It keeps blowing my hair in my face and I can’t see tv :).

      It is definitely stronger with some gusts into low 20s and a bit steadier

  34. Nantucket has sustained gale-force winds, with severe gale-force gusts. Must be very rough ocean east and southeast of Sconset. MV is having heavy rain and near gale conditions and gale-force gusts. How much of the rain they’re having win pinwheel up here remains to be seen. I doubt we see much in terms of wind except the fresh breezes we already have.

  35. The rain heading up this way, keeps drying up before reaching here.
    Very frustrating to be sure.
    Wonder IF it ever gets here.

      1. It’ll go poof. Maybe the Harbor Islands might get a sip or two before Boston’s rain shield does its thing.

  36. Here is something I have never noticed before.

    In helping my wife prepare potato salad for dinner tonight, I couldn’t help but
    notice how WARM the COLD water felt. I have been living in this house for 40 years
    and NEVER have I ever noticed the cold water being this warm. NEVER.

    Our water generally comes from the Quabbin with occasional brief shots of
    water from the Wachuset resevoir. The waters must be pretty toasty out there.

    I have only noticed this the past couple of days. Even during our heat waves it
    felt colder than this.

    Any thoughts?

      1. Do you know how old this house is? It’s NEVER seen a mixing value. Turn on hot, you get hot. Turn on cold, you get cold.
        Want it warm, you mix the 2 yourself. It is not a bad mixing value.
        It is warm freaking water being delivered. 😀

        1. Wow, must be pretty old plumbing!

          Not sure what the issue is, other than relativity, but it’s not likely due to Hermine. 😉

          1. No certainly not suggesting it is Hermine.

            I looked at the plumbing work and it looks excellent.

            I still think it is warmer water being delivered.

            I’ll see how it is at work since it’s the same water
            supply.

          2. The house was built in 1842. Yeah, it’s old.
            Water delivery is via Brass pipes, except where I
            have replaced them with copper. 😀

            1. It’s built like a fortress. The Floor joists
              are 12 X 12 Beams. None of this particle board crap they use these days. 😀

        2. Wait a minute, I had a leak repaired in the basement
          the other day. Really funny that I noticed the cold water
          being warmer after that. Hmmm
          I’ll check with my son down stairs to see if his cold
          water is just as warm.

          I hope they didn’t do something stupid and water from the hot water tank is mixing in with the cold?????????????

          Will check it out.

          Now I am really curious. 😀

            1. I still think I am correct. Just checked with the Mrs. Ans she has noticed as well and thinks it was happening BEFORE the
              plumbers did their thing and I thinks so too. 😀

  38. JP Daved, I have similar issues with cold running hot, and sometimes hot running cold. It’s not a reservoir thing, global warming (or cooling), Al Gore, Donald Trump, Hillary’s emails, or Hermine. It’s just a bad mixing valve that I’ve managed to fix a few times in the building’s boiler room. But, it goes awry every fortnight or so.

      1. I hadn’t either until a year ago. It’s a peculiar problem. The building I live in is originally from 1869, though it’s been restored a couple of times. Not sure if they did much to the original pipes, however. They look antiquated.

  41. JP Dave both sons in law will be here in a bit. One has a plumbing business and other manages one. I’ll also ask them

    Where was leak repaired and what was it for? Just trying to guess questions they would ask.

    1. There were 2 leaks in brass pipe unions. They replaced those unions with
      copper. Nothing to do with any valves. I think it is just warmer water being delivered.

      Does any here receiving water from the MWRA notice how warm the cold water is? Curious.

      Many thanks

      1. Guys asked if it is through house

        But both said there could be many reasons from something to do with drier to lines sitting on top of each other to exactly what you said and just warmer water coming in. That is why they asked if it is throughout house

        Not a mixing valve even if you have one as that has a different purpose which they are now arguing about how it should be worded 🙂 🙂 🙂

        1. Could be cartridge if single handle sink.

          and did they pull Aerator

          Both said call guy back.

          You have now provides entertainment for both. While they discuss, we laugh 🙂

          1. Wow – do you realize how much good plumbing advice on Labor Day is valued at in our free market economy? JP Dave I think you owe Vicki lunch!

            Btw I really loved the banter above with Dave and TK – you two are definitely ready to take your act on the road.

    1. ha ha ha NOT!

      Big green blob over me, but it must be DRYING up before reaching the ground.
      DRY as a BONE! NO freakin RAIN! Nothing!

      1. DP has actually dropped to 50. I guess that’s the reason the rain isn’t making it to the ground. 😀 😀

        1. Remember, with that blocking high to the north, there is a lot of dry air being pulled into the circulation. A storm that is just sitting down there, barely moving or drifting, with a large bank of dry air surrounding at least half of it, will suffer. This is one of the reasons I have not called for this system produce significant widespread rain.

          1. You called it well.

            It’s just that Boston’s suffered from a rainphobia for quite some time. Sometimes the cause is dry air, and then we’ve had the recurring phenomenon this summer of storms miraculously breaking up as they approach the city’s border from the west.

          2. Dp just dropped to 48 here. It’s like a DRY AIR invasion. It AIN’T GONNA RAIN!!!!!

            Like the northern edge of a Nor’easter where the dry air just annihilates the northern edge of the snow shield.

            Happening in front of our eyes. So sad!

    1. Post-tropical against a high to the north. I figured we’d get something like this, hence the butt-covering “higher gusts” in my forecast above. 😉

      1. TK – Butt successfully covered and you just made me look wicked smaht- someone here commented on the wind and I looked up from my phone and casually “Yup – post tropical against a high to the north.”

        Thankfully they were too awestruck to ask any follow up questions. Yet…..

  45. Dp 48 at the airport with wind around to the North, losing ocean component allowing
    it to dry off even more.

  48. In Braintree. Good downpour here. Hermine appears to me moving north northwest. Spiral bands of cloud cover and rain traversing from the south and east toward the north and the west. I believe the bands get in here this evening but they will be brief and episodic but any downpour could produce a quick 0.25. I think this storm produces tropical storm wind gusts east of the belt along with 0.5-2.5 inches from northwest to southeast. Column will saturate even in JP!!!

  49. Damaging wind gusts (not a surprise) along the South Coast. Very slow cyclonic loop of the low continues.

  51. Threatening sky, some wind, but no rain whatsoever. Maybe later when the columns saturate, as Arod suggested they would, even across the hub.

  52. It’s going to be hard to saturate the air which is quite dry in the lowest several thousand feet to start with, and because the axis of the largest rain shield is going to use up most of its energy trying to accomplish this saturation. So yes it will become more moist at all levels, but even when that happens we’re looking at just waves of scattered showers/downpours. There will not be a widespread shield of solid rain. That’s heading southwestward around the low center south of New England the next few hours and won’t likely make a comeback on the other side. Regardless, we’re in the “wheel” into at least Wednesday.

      1. My biggest error with this entire system was not initially catching the reconfiguration of the upper pattern to catch the system and not allow it to just go “o.t.s.” .. But once I realize that it was going to hang in the gulf a bit longer, that was enough for me…

        There is always going to be greater potential forecast error when you are dealing with this particular situation. It’s really hard to tell when/where loops will take place and pinpoint them, or if they will just be partial loops (in other words, partial retrogression then a resumption of progression). Very very hard to do. Don’t let non-met’s who happen to guess right make you think that met’s don’t know what they are doing. We know what we’re doing. It just doesn’t mean it’s always going to be something that leads us to the right conclusion. It’s science. It’s one thing to guess right. It’s entirely another thing to analyze, use your knowledge gained through your schooling and experience, and come up with the best educated guess you can. Folks forget that.

        1. Thank you for your explanation. Your description of a “wobbling” system is so spot on. If you look at how the system is spinning and moving it’s indeed a wobble.

  53. Our Red Sox look lifeless once again. Hard to believe that the Yankees are within 4 games of the Sox. A team with limited talent after a fire sale, but an exceedingly good manager (Girardi) is actually competing in the wildcard hunt. Who knows, maybe they catch the Red Sox. Probably not, but it does show you how poorly Dombrowski has constructed the bullpen and how inadequate a manager Farrell is. The Sox have plenty of talent. Yet, they’re more or less floundering. Frustrating. With their lineup it’s relatively easy to win games 16-2. It’s the close, low-scoring games that define a team. And it’s in these games that the Sox have underperformed.

    1. Red Sox have won 3 in a row albeit against bad teams up until last night. They are 1 game out and a few ahead in the wild card. Although they aren’t actually killing it, they are in the drivers seat. Just get in the playoffs and it’s on in the playoffs. They may just surprise you. The manager is awful, but don’t fret just yet

  54. For those of you looking at radar, if you’re using the NWS radar from Taunton, use the base loop. The composite loop is making the rainfall look far more impressive on the regional scale than it actually is.

  56. Just a heads up: Tornado in Outer Banks NC a couple days ago is being represented around the net by a photo of a tornado from 2013. Once again, a misrepresentation of an event and a misuse of a fabulous medium (the internet). I’m disappointed.

  57. Well we did get ‘some” rain. Not enough to wet the pavements totally and NOT enough
    to trip the rain gauge. What a JOKE!

    1. Well, the risk is still going to be around for another 36 hours, so don’t count it out yet. A bit early to do that. 😉

  59. Last sports note for today. 8th inning; runner at 3rd with 1 out. Sox are down by 1 run and obviously need to tie up the game. Farrell elects to go with Sandy Leon as a pinch hitter for Holt, leaving Ortiz on the bench. Completely inexplicable. Leon is a bad hitter in spite of a good stretch this season – the only good stretch he’ll ever have in his entire career. In prior seasons Leon was a VERY bad hitter and known not to be able to hit any kind of pitch. He’s reverting to form, which shouldn’t surprise anyone. I can’t imagine any other manager in baseball using Sandy Leon as a pinch-hitter when you’ve got Ortiz on the bench, the lefty-lefty match-up notwithstanding. Ortiz in the clutch hits against everyone.

  60. Dew point here is 44. Dry dry dry.
    I’m looking forward to potential 90 degrees later in the week.

    On JPDave’s warm water. Not sure what’s up. BUT, a mixing valve is put onto the water system to keep scalding water from burning someone on a tub valve. Newer shower valves have a safety feature that keeps the hot water from rising above 120 degrees. But that can be adjusted. A mixing valve takes the hot water and mixes it with a little cold water to keep the hot water at the tub below 120. In done houses, a mixing valve is installed to regulate the hot water for the whole house. You might wonder why not just turn the hot water temp down. Not s good idea. The hot water should be held above 122 degrees, preferably at 130-135. Legionella grows nicely between 68 and 120. So as much as you might want to turn that tank temp down, resist the temptation.
    That’s your plumbing lesson for today.

    1. Words I am hearing or able to parse out from the discussion are Temp cannot go above 112 and hot water doesn’t backfeed into cold. And something about that being a shower valve. But both agree Dave not having trouble with mixing valve as the mixing valve has nothing to do with cold water.

      All I can say is you woke them up 🙂

    1. Actually, the rain explains the dew point. 🙂 The spiral bands are there, but they are separated by exceptionally dry air which are also set up as their own little bands. Dew points range from below 50 in the dry slots to near 60 in the shower bands.

  63. Wind is great. I set out well after dark. It is strong enough to blow into the bathroom ceiling fans and rattle them. On the whole not anything out of the ordinary but enough to truly enjoy

  64. Billerica.
    Cloudy,
    winds Northeast… been almost constant at about 20mph, measured a gust at 38mph
    Humidity at 31%

    I do not believe it gets as warm as people think Thursday through Saturday.

  65. Wind must have calmed down. I haven’t had a door slam or candle blow out in a while. Don’t ya love my official sources. DP on rise to 51. Temp 64.2

    1. It’s just starting to relax, but slowly. My peak gusts of about 30-35 MPH were in the last 3 hours.

      1. I am sure we didn’t get near that peak

        I so smell rain. My other official source. I suspect as much as before…..not even enough to trip gauge. It was a cold rain. I sat out in it and it felt great

        Will winds pick up again? I already miss them

  66. An off thought. If there is the risk of winds tomorrow, will some schools close on SS or is everything winding down?

  67. No Tom tonight. Hoping he is just preparing for class tomorrow and has electricity….and if he doesn’t have electricity, ill be right there !!

    1. :).

      Nothing exciting. Electricity the whole time. Was preparing for school.

      Fairly light winds this morning, it’s become mild and muggy overnight.

  68. RE:. MWRA water. All water in the system flows from Quabbin Reservoir to the Wachusett Reservoir. From the Wachusett, it flows to the Carroll Treatment Plant in Marlborough, and then out to the distribution system.

    Out here in Clinton, we direct tap the Wachusett through our own water treatment plant.

    With all that being said, I have noticed the water being warmer than usual as well. Can’t seem to get it real cold.

    However, I don’t really think it is the reservoir itself. I’m more inclined to believe it relates to ground temperatures, not surface water temps. Especially getting into Boston. It takes a good amount of time for water to get to Boston.

    Maybe ground water levels are down enough to reduce some of its insulating effects on the pipeline? Pure speculation on my part…

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