Thursday Forecast

83 Comments

7:18AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 15-19)…
High pressure will bring pleasant weather through Friday. The weekend will start ok with fair weather, some increasing clouds, and a warm-up Saturday after a cool start. Sunday will be an unsettled day as a cold front slowly moves through, producing lots of clouds and scattered showers. Some cloudiness and a risk of a shower lingers Monday as the front never completely makes it through and falls apart over the region.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 67-74. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 42-54, coolest interior valleys, mildest urban areas. Wind light variable.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 40-50. Highs 70-78.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows 58-64. Highs 68-75.
MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows 60-66. Highs 70-77.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 20-24)…
Mainly dry weather during the period. Temperatures somewhat variable but averaging above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 25-29)…
Overall pattern remains dry and warm.

83 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  2. Thanks TK !

    Pretty neat sky this morning with plenty of angry looking, low topped cumulus coming in off of the ocean along with some sprinkles and light showers.

    2. DT had a discussion on this the other day. I got busy and forgot to post
      a link.

      He basically said no El Nino and no La Nina, therefore Winter is left
      to it’s own devices. He predicted Cold and Snowy for the Northeast.

      If I have a chance, I’ll see IF I can find that.

      1. I been paying attention to the ENSO for a bit, Every time it is more towards Neutral, currently looks to be around the Neutral to slightly negative.

        1. NEW INFO ON THE WINTER OF 2016-17

          There has been a significant development over the past few days regarding how the winter of 2016-17 may be developing over North America and how it may impact the eastern third of the CONUS. Many of the initial Winter forecasts have been premised on the idea of a weak to moderate La Nina event developing this Autumn and continuing into the Winter months. That assumption now seems to be unlikely. For winter weather lovers -without -getting too technical a Weak La Nina often favors a active stormy and cold winter for some portion of the eastern US but a moderate La Nina event often favors the Midwest and the East Coast tends to run somewhat warmer and drier than normal.

          What you are looking at here is a comparison of the recent European model and its forecast “PLUMES” for the El Nino region along the equatorial Pacific. The actual region is referred to as ENSO and the red lines represent the 50 different versions of the European model which are run at the same time. The idea here is to give forecasters a ‘TREND’ or “range of possibilities” with respect to how the ENSO region for is going to develop over the next several months.

          SO WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?
          If you compare the red lines between August and September model projections you will see that none of the red lines now even reached the basic threshold criteria for weak La Nina event. The implication here is that conditions in the ENSO region— which is the equatorial Pacific–will remain neutral for most of the winter with no strong signal one way or the other.

          https://scontent-lga3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-0/p75x225/14237751_1116461978401059_1879489269004586528_n.png?oh=fef50497ef80469cb66857bb9964cd16&oe=58848EE4

          1. Significant developments….
            This also assumes that the newer model run is correct and the older one is not. Do models improve their performance with each run?

          2. So drier and a bit above avg temp??? Where have I heard that? Although I am not clear on this. They are not saying moderate – correct? But are saying neutral??

            2. not necessarily Vicki. It actually could increase the subtropical jet which could increase the storm chances if I am not mistaking

  7. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Beautiful weather. DP 49 at the house when I left this morning.
    AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!

    Now that’s more like it. Let’s keep the facuckta 70 dew points the hell out of here!!

    Compact brief, but nifty little thunderstorm yesterday. More potent than I ever expected, but way too short lived.

    I feel badly for Porcello last night. 8 innings pitched, 4 hits and 1 stinken run.
    99% of the time a pitcher WINS with that. NOT last night as the Sox ran into
    a buzz saw and couldn’t buy a run. That happens in baseball. Really tight race.
    Baltimore behind by 1, Toronto by 2 and New York by 4. New York in here for 4 games. This should be interesting. We need the Sox to win 3. 2 wins is an absolute must. They are in deep doo-doo if they lose 3 or 4 games.

      1. Yankees if it were not for the two errors in ninth inning yesterday would have been three behind Boston one behind Toronto for second wild card. Regardless of what happens great run for the Yankees and finally getting younger and should be an entertaining four game set where the Red Sox would like nothing better than to knock the Yankees out of playoff contention.

  9. In the something to keep an eye on category. This is NWS discussion for Sunday.
    always have to be wary of these tropical environments with low LCLs when there is sufficient low level shear. GFS and EMCWF both indicate 100-150 units of 0-1 km helicity with 0-1 km shear 20-25 kt. Something to watch closely with later forecasts.

      1. They were hinting at that a few weeks ago and there was the nocturnal EF 1 tornado in Concord. Lets see if they keep that wording in future discussions.
        As far as drought and this may be the case in parts of MA as well meteorologist Gil Simmons was saying this morning if you go back to last year there are parts of CT with rainfall deficits of 15-20 inches.

        1. Yes, you are correct about that.

          Even a blind squirrel finds an occasional acorn.

          Keep throwing the crap against the wall and finally one day it might stick.

          We shall see.

          I am not shaking in my boots. 😀

  10. The other issue with that long range change is that it makes assumptions about several other atmospheric indices. Risky to begin with.

  11. Whatever patten we get this upcoming winter, as long as it is NOT El Niño which decimated the peach crop and reduced apples to the size of a wiffle ball and pumpkins to the size of a softball.

    The last two I am slightly exaggerating but you get my point. 😉

  12. Both 12z runs of American models show just enough instability for thunder on Sunday. Nothing impressive with severe weather parameters.

  13. Thank you, TK.

    Been very busy in recent days, hence no posts.

    The northern parts of Western Europe saw record after record fall in recent days as the September heat continued. Highly unusual. I spent 18 Septembers in Holland and it never got to 90F, not even 85. Even an 80 degree day in September is exceptional there, so a string of days in the upper 80s and low to mid 90s is very rare.

    Our sneak previews of fall weather feel good.

    Finally the young Yankees’ inexperience showed. The loss yesterday was huge. Maybe even back-breaking. This said, the Red Sox are a vulnerable team. The upcoming series will be tough. The Sox in particular have a lot of trouble winning close, low-scoring contests. I think the majority of the games in the final weeks will be close contests.

  14. I agree but the run the Yankees have put on after selling at the trade deadline has been impressive. You never see this with a team that sells at the trade deadline.

  15. Now that the pitching has finally come together for the most part, the hitting needs to be more consistent. You can’t score 10+ runs one night and 2 or less the next. There have been way too many 1-0 and 2-1 losses. The Sox should be ahead by several games by now instead of just clinging on by a game or two.

    1. Agree, and I do place some of the blame on Farrell. It’s the close games where managers can play an important role. Surely, some of the games were winnable had they had a better manager. Maybe only 3 or 4 games, but that would make a big difference at this point in time.

  16. JJ, You are absolutely correct. I am no fan of the Yankees, but I respect the club enormously. Have done so since their glory years in the late 70s when they always beat the Red Sox when it mattered most. In the late 90s – and until 2004 – the Yankees replayed the same tune of beating the Sox into submission. What they’ve done this year (and last for that matter) is nothing short of miraculous, given the lineup Girardi trots out there on a nightly basis. They almost took 2 out of 3 from a very talented Dodgers team. So, it would not surprise me if the Yankees go toe-to-toe with the Red Sox and win some games in the process.

  17. Joshua under Girardi the years they have not made the playoffs 2008 2013 2014 they were still mathematically in it until the last week of the season. In 2013 2014 there were a lot of injuries those years and they competed. People get on Girardi for over managing but his teams are competitive including the 2006 Marlins team he managed which had far less talent than the Yankees. There calling this a rebuild but during this rebuild process they have stayed competitive and there are a lot of fans of teams who wish they could have a rebuild like the Yankees are having.

  18. EURO advertising a day or so of heat just after the equinox, which is 9/22.

    All of New England solidly under 18c 850 mb temps.

    Lets see if this signal persists in the coming days.

  20. Did a little research into the months ahead, and I’m happy to report there will be pretty much no change to my long range thoughts. We’ll be hard pressed to find much of a southern jet stream this winter and the drought will persist into the early months of 2017. This takes into account the “new” projects about the lack of La Nina, which may or may not be accurate. I’ve been leaning toward a weaker La Nina in recent months versus the stronger one I originally thought we may get. Again though, there are many other indices to consider. ONE index does not make a long range forecast. It only has impact of varying degree, depending on everything else in the complex puzzle.

    But to recap, I lean toward a warm/dry pattern into mid autumn, continued dry pattern but trending cooler/colder late autumn and winter, though winter would likely see its share of up/down temps with a dominant polar jet and often zonal flow. You’d alternate modified Pacific air with polar and/or arctic air. Your snow would come from redeveloping or “just-right” tracking disturbances in the polar jet, and you’d get a small handful of opportunities for gulf-fueled systems, greatly limited by the lack of a strong subtropical jet stream.

    Beyond winter, we’d have a chilly/dry start to spring and then a flip to warm/wet pattern late spring and summer of 2017. They’d be a lot of heat again next summer, but this time with more oppressive humidity versus this past summer in which high humidity was virtually non-existent.

    Before all this, we still have a 2-week window coming up from around September 27 to around October 7 in which we may get 1 or 2 moderate to heavy rain events. Not holding my breath on it, but cannot ignore it.

    As you were! 😉

    2. WHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAT?

      Hig humidity virtually non-existent? Are you out of your mind?
      Tell that to my wife who just endured her worst Summer ever.

      This Summer was BRUTAL regarding the humidity.

      If next Summer is worse, we may have to move to Wyoming or something.
      I’d say Arizona, but that is too hot humidity or not.

      1. The dew point spent a lot of time in the 40s and 50s in June, 50s and 60s in July, and 60s in August, which by climate standards is a fairly dry air summer. So no, I’m not out of my mind.

        Boston’s #’s (both temp and dew point) are skewed upward. I’m convinced of it. They are WRONG.

  21. A couple things I’m watching for…

    How much rain Sunday/Monday? The Euro has consistently been showing widespread heavy rain for that period. The 12z run has 1-3″ for most of the region, less over southeast MA. The GFS generally shows half an inch or less for the same period. I think we all know what’s more likely there, but here’s hoping the Euro is correct.

    Secondly, what becomes of TD 12? That’s the storm on the Euro at 240 hours. It’s very possible it degenerates into a remnant low before reaching 55W. If it survives that far though, then it becomes a potential player. Obviously there’s huge uncertainty in how the steering patterns would look in 8-10 days time. It’ll be a waiting game for awhile.

    1. Strongly disagree with ECMWF. GFS is probably going to be close on this one.

      I don’t think TD 12 will survive as far west as the ECMWF says, but jury is out obviously.

  22. Excerpt from the NWS discussion from this afternoon… PREs, spin-ups, and heavy rain, oh my 😉

    Sunday into Sunday night …

    Approaching trough and associated frontal boundary begin to advect
    and interact with tropical moisture along with some interaction from
    the remnants of Julia. Frontal convergence coupled with modest upper
    level jet streak should provide sufficient forcing for ascent to
    yield at least scattered showers if not numerous at times. Will have
    to watch this closely as there are some signs of a PRE (Predecessor
    Rainfall Event…however jet streak aloft is not that anomalous
    along with frontal boundary lacking baroclinicity. Thus weak signal
    for a PRE but worth watching how system evolves.

    Dew pts rising into the mid to upper 60s /possibly near 70/ will
    yield modest SB instability of 500 to 1000 j/kg. Thus isolated T-
    storms possible along with a few strong storms possible as deep
    layer shear increases to 30-35 kt yielding. As previous forecaster
    noted…0-1km shear increases to 20 kt along with high dew pts
    yielding low LCLs. Hence very low risk of a brief spin-up. In
    addition with PWATs climbing to near 2″ and dew pts 65 to 70 coupled
    with modest frontal convergence and synoptic scale lift…heavy rain
    threat exist. Otherwise it will be a warm and humid day with highs
    75 to 80.

    1. I don’t think much will come of it at all this time. They just get excited really easily. 🙂 Great guys though.

      1. We think alike, Joshua. There is nothing like waking up in the morning and seeing a coat of frost on the lawn…..well, maybe a coating of snow but …

  24. JP Dave, TK may have a point regarding this summer. I felt it was oppressive at times, and I commiserate with your wife in this regard. The heat and humidity knock the stuffing out of me, pure and simple. This said, it was not like 1983, 1988, or 2002 in terms of humidity. I fear that next year may be worse for me and your wife as we may get a lot of swamp days like they experience in places like Vietnam.

    All I know is I booked several days before Christmas in Quebec City to enjoy some cold and snow. Even if it doesn’t come to Boston by then, it’s guaranteed in QC by then. With the projected zonal flow this may mean a banner year for QC as they tend to get repeated doses of snow on an almost daily basis with relatively small, moisture-deprived lows that produce fluffy 2-4 inch `storms.’

    1. Yes I am aware of that. However, my wife’s age is now more advanced and her
      health is not in the best shape, so for her, it was the Worst Summer ever.
      We did have 22 days in Boston above 90 and I know not all of them came
      with Humidity.

      I strongly disagree that humidity was practically non-existent.

      Not as much as 83 or 88, sure, but bad enough. 😀

      1. I really need to investigate Boston’s #’s. I strongly believe they had at least 5 fewer 90 degree days than they reported. And I also believe their dew point reading was too high much of the time as well. I’ve been doing this too long not to notice when something is askew. I worked along side the state climatologist for years.

        1. I still disagree.
          The dew point has been insane.
          I have a brand new sensor that has been pretty much
          spot on with the Airport.

          I have been around a long time as well and even though
          I do not have a degree in Meteorology, I have been following the weather forever. I sure know when it is humid and when it is not.

          And whatever # days Logan reported as 90, I can guarantee you we had 2-4 days more of them at my house some 6 miles away. 😀

          And I must admit, August was the Worst month of the Summer. I have had my sensor since about 8/5.

        2. Could it ever be location TK ?

          By the latter part of July, ocean temps were 70F or a bit higher. Within a couple miles of the coastline, anytime the wind goes onshore, the immediate few miles of the coastline are usually more humid and sometimes significantly so than inland locations.

          1. The pattern would not have supported that being a major factor. Even ignoring Logan’s probably dew point readings being too high this past month, the #’s for August 2016 are considerably less brutal than a sample of several Augusts going back to the 1980s.

            One example, the dew point at Logan went to 70 or higher on 10 days in August 2016 (in reality it was probably less), while in August 1984 there were 18 days of 70+ dew points and the dew point was at least 60 for at least a portion of all 31 days. In August 2016 Logan had the dew point dip into the 50s for at least a portion of 18 days and into the upper 40s for part of 3 days.

            1. Awesome data ……. Makes sense, with very low ground moisture due to the drought.

              Not to play Switzerland, but I agree with you and JpDave. Both have perspectives I can agree with. We’ve certainly had more tropical summers and yet, it was a summer that had many uncomfortably hot days, even if it was just from heat and not necessarily humidity.

            2. Then we agree to disagree. It’s like beauty, it’s in the eye of the beholder.
              And this beholder saw wicked humidity. 😀
              Especially during August.

              I wish I kept a log of the dew point.

              I readily agree it does not compare to those other years mentioned.

              It may be age where my wife and I feel it more the older we get. But in addition to that I noticed a high dp reading often.

              Oh well, life goes on.

              Can we get some rain in here this weekend?

              We’re going to dinner on Sunday evening, so you can bet on rain at that time!

  25. CPC has updated their seasonal outlooks…

    They continue the theme of a warm/dry early autumn, generally cooler but still dry late autumn and winter, cool/dry early spring, warm/wetter late spring, hot/wet summer 2017. Basically no major change from their previous outlook. They’ve been horrendous on their 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks (though today’s look OK in my opinion), but great on their seasonal ones. Go figure.

  27. Regardless of who wins tonight’s Thursday NFL game, the Patriots will wake up to a 1/2 game lead in the AFC East. 😉

  30. I am just hoping for good snow conditions for the Skiing Areas, Last year sucked. Was going to do some races, but decided not to as I remember the last time I raced with crappy man made stuff.

  33. With the windows open, it is so nice and chilly !

    Looks like Barrow, AK has had snow recently as I see some here and there on the ground looking at the Barrow cam.

    1. If I hadn’t arrived home so late, I thought of turning the fire on….with windows open of course. I love this nights weather

  34. I know so many people that turned the game off at 5-1.
    I know a couple people that LEFT the game at 5-1.
    Why? Well I guess that’s your choice, but the game isn’t over until the final out….or… The Walk-Off. 😉

      1. I so tired I went to bed after the 8th. Wow, I couldn’t believe it when I checked the score this morning. What a ninth inning.

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