Friday Forecast

40 Comments

7:15AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 16-20)…
Long term pattern remains drier and warmer than normal but this 5-day period will feature some variable temperatures and risk of some rain. Now don’t go expecting a drought-breaking rainfall. The deficit is significant and you would not want to make it all up at once, or we’d have extreme flooding. There is a risk of some beneficial rain before the end of this 5-day period, but the benefit may be limited if the source of tropical moisture does not deliver. The source? Tropical Depression/Storm Julia, which will not directly move up this way, but may have some of its moisture tapped by an trough coming in from the west and reaching New England during Sunday into Monday. Before that, high pressure dominates today into Saturday with fair weather, and after it, a fair and warm day is expected next Tuesday.
TODAY: Some early to mid morning cloudiness otherwise mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind light variable.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 42-47 rural areas and suburban valleys, 48-55 elsewhere, mildest in urban areas. Wind calm.
SATURDAY: Sunshine, filtered at times by high clouds. Highs 70-77. Wind light SE.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 54-60. Wind light SE to S.
SUNDAY: Mainly cloudy. Episodes of rain showers possible but may favor areas well west and northwest of Boston during the day. Increased chance of more widespread showers at night. More humid. Highs 68-75. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Risk of rain showers. Lows 60-68. Highs 70-78.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 60-68. Highs 77-85.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 21-25)…
A cold front likely moves through in the early hours of September 21 making it a cooler but dry day. Quick warm-up September 22 with dry weather. A shower possibly early September 23 with the next front which brings slight cooling again that day. The weekend of September 24-25 is uncertain but there may be a rain risk at some point as we enter a 2 week period of better rain chances.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 26-30)…
1 or 2 rain chances during this period but the overall pattern will still be fairly mild to warm compared to normal.

40 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  1. Thanks TK !

    Hoping the rain scenario works out …..

    45F earlier this morning in Marshfield, beautiful !!!!

    Exhilarating September baseball at Fenway !

    1. What great memories that brought back. Thank you, MassBay.

      I had the pleasure of meeting Gentleman Jim several times. It made me smile to see that clip.

      1. I was there, Vicki. My Dad and I got tix down by the right field foul pole. Looking across at the center field wall. Could not see much, but what a gas! 🙂

        1. What a thrill, MassBay. That is a memory that will last forever. I have goosebumps just thinking of how exciting it had to have been for you.

          I was at Katherine Gibbs at the time and there was some sort of a student and parent meeting. They kept interrupting to let us know what was happening — in that very prim and proper school.

  6. Good morning and thank you TK.

    49 at my house this morning. Still went off to work in a short sleeve jersey. 😀
    And very comfortable, I might add.

    I gave up on the Sox last night. IN fact, I was disgusted with them.
    Then look what happened. Unbelievable finish. Awesome.

    Haven’t looked at any guidance. Let us hope we get some decent rain in here.

  7. Took a quick peek at the latest NAM and GFS. Not too promising.
    NAM wants to give us about 1/3 of an inch, while the GFS wants to give us less
    than 1/10 inch. Euro about 1/10 inch as well.

    Perhaps things will change some with the 12Z runs.

    Right now, it just doesn’t look too good for rain.

  8. I gave up on the Sox as well last night, and like Dave really was disgusted with them. This one game doesn’t change the fact that on the whole they’ve been terrible in the clutch in close games all year, but my hope is that maybe this was the breakthrough they needed.

    Meanwhile, we got down to a chilly 40F here in Plymouth, NH this morning. Two great late summer/early fall days on tap though!

  12. I get the big picture thing and that’s what it’s really “all about”, but sometimes the good old American tradition of enjoying a baseball game for what it is, win or lose, is more important to me. That joy is being lost today.

    I know there is someone here that will immediately agree with me. 😉

  14. Thank you TK! Hope everyone has a great weekend. Probably won’t get here much over the next couple of days since it is all youth football, all the time right now. 🙂 At least the cooler temps at night make it feel a little bit like “football weather”.

      1. Thanks Vicki! Hoping for a couple of wins this weekend after a tough start last weekend. Thankfully my boys always come home smiling no matter what the outcome.

        1. That does not surprise me and that is the best lesson they will ever learn. Go get em, boys !!! And have fun while you are at it 🙂

  18. GFS likely to be the closest on this, based on 12z runs.

    Also like its forecast of less than 1 inch at Boston through the entire 384 hour period. Yes I do believe we enter a 2 week period of “better chances” about September 24, but I’m still leaning toward persistence.

    Be very careful about buying the NAM beyond 60 hours.

  19. NWS for Sunday
    Other than the heavy rain, given MU CAPE values reach
    500-1000j/kg on even the more conservative ECMWF along with 0-3 km
    shear values reaching 35kt, will need to watch for localized
    T-storms with a risk for severe elements, particularly Sun
    afternoon and then Sun night when these parameters look to peak.
    One interesting factor of note with the tropical influence and
    high shear (even 0-1 km shear is near 20 kt or more), given low
    LCLs and humid conditions, will need to monitor for localized
    spin-up tornado particularly late Sun and Sun night. This shear is
    highest in the W, as previous forecaster noted, so this will be
    area of most focus for this risk.

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