Wednesday Forecast

57 Comments

7:10AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 21-25)…
High pressure builds in and as the last day of summer today leads to the first day of autumn tomorrow, it will continue to feel like summer. The fall feel will have to wait for a cold front, which will not arrive until later Friday. This front will have limited moisture to work with and therefore, the threat of any showers or thunderstorms with it will be limited as well. Over the weekend, a cool and dry air mass will arrive from eastern Canada, and the first full weekend of autumn will feel quite seasonable if not a bit chilly to some.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-83. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-63. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-85. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated afternoon and evening showers/thunderstorms. Lows 55-63. Highs 78-86.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Early-day shower possible especially south of Boston. Breezy. Lows 55-63. Highs 64-71.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows 42-51, mildest Cape Cod and urban areas. Highs 62-69.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 26-30)…
Changeable weather during this time but no widespread beneficial rain. Briefly milder with late-day showers September 26, dry/breezy/cool again September 27, and dry weather with a warming trend September 28-30.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 1-5)…
A couple opportunities for wet weather during this period, though not looking for a switch to a wet pattern overall. Temperatures near to above normal.

57 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  2. The 00z GFS with its long range cut off low in the Ohio Valley and perhaps negative tilted east coast frontal boundary is having a nutty with 384 hr total projected rainfall amounts. I do suppose I recall a year, perhaps in the 90s with an event like this that caused a lot of flooding.

    1. Of course there was no sign of anything like that on previous runs and the 06z run has already subtly backed off on the timing and location. It’ll be gone in a few runs. 🙂

  3. Thanks, TK!
    Do you remember the
    21st night of September?
    Ba de ya – Say, Do you remember?
    Ba de ya – Dancing in September!
    Ba de ya – Never was a cloudy day!

        2. Well that explains it. Was never a fan of that group. In fact, I don’t ever listen to stations where there would even be a chance that their songs would play. 😀

  6. Reading TK’s comment above Re: the GFS and its end of range follies, reminds me of this note.

    GFS upgrade scheduled for today has been postponed to November 3rd. Most of the upgrade relates to the MOS products but there are some system wide upgrades that could prove beneficial. 910 new data stations. Updated equations for dewpoint, temperature, sky cover, and precipitation using and additional 30 months of new retrospective data. Also the use of a new land/water terrain data set could be beneficial to its lacking mesoscale forecasts. (probably not)

    Of course I don’t think the GFS has been any worse this summer than the ECMWF. A matter of fact the ECMWF has at times looked like a convective feedback juiced NAM with some of its mid-range precipitation forecasts.

  7. Re: Tropical System way out there on GFS (Same system TOM was talking about yesterday)

    Here is the beginning over Venezuela

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016092106/gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_32.png

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016092106/gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_36.png

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016092106/gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_41.png

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016092106/gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_45.png

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016092106/gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_52.png

    The GFS has been advertising this for 4 or 5 runs now.

    Interesting where the birth of this was. Remember the quiz the other day.
    This one was born at “about” 10 Degrees North Lattitude. I shouldn’t say born, I should say projected to be born. 😀

    2. Actually, it’s had it for 4 or 5 DAYS now, not 4 or 5 runs. Also, it doesn’t start over Venezeula. It’s had a wave come across the Atlantic fairly far south, scrape by the ABC islands, then start to blow up and turn northwest and eventually north. It’s had the same idea now on every run since the weekend and for the same time frame, just the details have been subtly different.

      We do a radio station in Jamaica and they are constantly asking us if there’s anything in the tropics they have to worry about. Whenever the GFS has something down there I always notice it.

      1. Yes, I am aware of that. It sort of came and went, and it really started to take shape over Venezuela. That is why I started there, plus I could only post 5 links before a post goes to moderation, so that is the choice I made. 😀

    1. We are starting our general flu clinics in 10 days. Employees (including myself) are getting them this week. Not too early at all.

      1. Thanks Keith. It’s good to hear other companies are starting to offer them now. My company is starting their annual flu clinic as well with shots available this week. When I first started at this company 9 years ago, the flu clinic started 3rd week of October. Every year it was sooner and sooner. Seems very early to me. I know the research is inconclusive, but from what I’ve read, peak immunity lasts ~4 months but yet the flu season lasts through March. The math doesn’t jive. The other reason I’m curious is, my wife is pregnant, and I’ve read immunity doesn’t last as long in pregnant women.

        1. I am smiling from ear to ear and have goosbumps. Oh and now happy tears!! I’m so happy for you both, Ace.

          I had the same discussion with Mac’s oncologists. They wanted us all to have flu shots in September. They seemed to think that it would last through the season. I still have my doubts. I just asked my daughter and she reminded me that flu showed up earlier last year – in the late december/january time frame.

          1. Thanks Vicki! Hopefully this time around everything goes well 🙂 They will not give a flu shot at my work to anyone that is pregnant or nursing without a written letter of approval from a doctor

            1. You and Mrs. Ace remain in our prayers!!

              I guess it makes sense that the office requires a letter although I do not know any obs who do not insist moms to be get flu shots. Best for the company to be sure I guess.

      1. Congrats Ace!!!

        Also the whole (imho) length of time thing is a crap shoot. Also for the past two years the Fluzone vaccine covers 4 different strains (that’s always a crap shoot too as they plan for which strains will hit in a particular year). That being said the Med Center I worked for has seen an early uptick in patients requesting the vaccine. Also for the past 5 years or so (since we’ve been required to get the vaccine as employees in a Health Care location) I’ve not gotten the flu 🙂

        1. Thanks Keith! Yea, I get that the research is suspect and everywhere I look I see conflicting reports. One thing is for sure, its better to get it now than not at all

  11. Oh well, guess the brief cool air advection is over …. 🙁

    Summit of Mt Washington had bottomed out earlier at 40F, but is now back up to 43.7 F.

  12. I was dancing and singing to “September” as my students were coming in for first period this morning. If you’re not a morning person, you would not like having me first period!

  15. Ooooops, typing on this phone. It sometimes types in the name area and I don’t notice it and then my comment ends up in moderation.

    Logan dp at 41F

  17. I think the well advertised cool shot lasts only through Tuesday and then temps should rebound to the mid 70’s and into the 80’s well south and west.

  18. In snooping around, the consensus I am getting is that
    Garoppolo likely will NOT start tomorrow night.

    BB did not sign a veteran back up because:

    1. He didn’t feel that a veteran unfamiliar with the system would be able to do
    better than either Brisset, an injured Garoppalo or Edleman or any combination
    thereof.
    2. He didn’t feel given # 1, that it was worth wasting a roster spot and having to make
    another player inactive.

    I thought that there might be chance 10 starts, but it’s looking like what I said yesterday may happen.

    Brisset starts and Garoppolo and/or Edelman are the back ups depending on how 10’s shoulder feels and whether or not he can throw after a “therapeutic” injection. I heard that Edelman was taking snaps. Don’t know how true that is, but knowing BB, I’ll
    be it is true.

    Should be a fun game to watch whoever starts and is back up.

  19. Here’s my first attempt at weather trivia:

    On the 78th anniversary of the Great Hurricane of 1938, here are some questions on the history of hurricane names. These questions apply only to the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean.

    1) The United States started officially naming tropical cyclones in the Atlantic in 1950. The first official name ever given to a hurricane or tropical storm was:
    A- Alfa
    B- Adam
    C- Abel
    D- Apple

    2) In 1953, the US first gave storms the names of women. The first such named storm was:
    A- Abigail
    B- Andrea
    C- Anne
    D- Alice

    3) In 1979, men’s names were added to the list of storms and alternated with women’s names. The first tropical cyclone using a man’s name was:

    A- Bob
    B- Andrés
    C- Allan
    D- Abraham

    Answers later tonight; tomorrow if I fall asleep during the Red Sox game.

    1. Thanks for the quiz. To start, I haven’t a clue and I haven’t looked it up, so
      here is a pure guess for each:

      #1. Abel
      #2. Anne
      #3. Abraham

      No see IF I can even catch one of them. 😀

      1. I think I know two and guessed at one.

        And I sent you an email earlier with a weather station question. But there is no hurry at all in answering.

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