Thursday Forecast

73 Comments

7:29AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 22-26)…
High pressure will dominate today with another summer-feeling day for the first day of autumn. A cold front will drop through the region Friday but have limited moisture to work with, minimizing the shower threat. High pressure north of the region will send a cooler northerly fair flow in for the weekend and early next week.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-85. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-63. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated afternoon and evening showers/thunderstorms. Highs 78-86. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Early-day shower possible especially south of Boston. Breezy. Lows 55-63. Highs 64-71.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows 42-51, mildest Cape Cod and urban areas. Highs 62-69.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-50, coolest interior valleys, mildest Cape Cod. Highs 64-71.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 27-OCTOBER 1)…
Changeable weather during this time but no widespread beneficial rain. Dry/breezy/cool September 27, and dry weather with a warming trend September 28-30. Chance of some showers or rain October 1.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 2-6)…
A couple opportunities for wet weather during this period, though not looking for a switch to a wet pattern overall. Temperatures near to above normal.

73 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  6. Thanks, TK:

    Answers to last night’s trivia:

    1) C – Able…Storms were first named after the phonetic alphabet that police, army and NATO uses (Able, Baker, Charlie)

    2) D – Alice. Alice was the first storm named after a woman.

    3)A -Bob. Bob was the first storm named after a man. The first named storm of 1979 was Ana, named after a woman.

    The winner, I guess, was Vicki who went 3-for-3. Vicki, you win “A NEW CAR!!!”
    (I watch too many game shows.)

    1. Thank you Captain.

      We always enjoy quizes. Longshot have been providing them for a long time.
      Once in a while one of us will throw one out there.

      Thanks again.

    2. hehe – it its manufacturer Matchbox.

      I knew 1 as I recalled they were Able, Baker, Charlie.

      3 was an educated guess which we all know I rarely employ. I figured the first male would not be an A as a woman always leads the way so Bob was the logical choice.

      I completely guessed at Alice and chose her because JPD was the only other person who answered and he didn’t say Alice and I didn’t think the other two names fit. And yes, that puts us right back to the illogical logic I typically employ!!

      Anyway…thank you for a fun three quizzes.

    3. We will have to watch this area during that time frame.

      Pattern will briefly support a similar scenario if a storm is there in reality at that time, and for several days leading to this time.

      1. Any thoughts on whether or not there will be a system around
        at that time or near that time? OR is the GFS just blowing smoke?

  8. The ECMWF does something interesting next weekend as well. It has a low get caught under an upper-low off the East coast and retrograde back in, giving us some decent rain next weekend. Not sure I buy that any more than the pure fantasy of the 6z GFS, but it’s at least a bit more plausible.

    1. Agree. Been quietly watching this period of time (last week of September and first week of October) for some rain opportunities.

  10. I think it’ll be a fairly low scoring game of the pats defense plays like they are capable. I figure the pats offensive plan is a lot of Blount, screens, hot reads, and some motion to make Houston show zone or man. Ball control, run the clock type stuff to shorten the game. I figure 17-10, 14-10, probably a 3-7 point differential, one way or the other.
    If the pats defense looks like the second half of last Sunday, it’ll be a long night. If Houston gets up by a couple scores early, man, that’s gonna be brutal.
    Then again I could be totally wrong, but I think the 2 senerios above are the most likely.

  11. Sure feels like summer yet again today. Bring on the cold front!

    As for the Pats, I foresee an ugly night- I’m thinking along the lines of a 27-13 defeat. Not really something I’m worried about though; I hope they rest Jimmy G (and Gronk), get out without any more big injuries, and live to fight another week. They should be fine.

    And how ’bout those Red Sox! The Hanley walk-off in the Yankees series changed the whole season. Just glad we’ll get to watch some meaningful October baseball this year.

    1. 27-13 sounds about right if the defense lays an egg again. But I’m banking on them to play better and hold the score down to something manageable. But yea, 27-35 points for Houston is not out of the question at all.

      1. Texans are 1 point favorites.

        I would not be surprised to see 1 or perhaps 2 trick plays from BB. One thing I like about Brissett is that he has always had poise. He is not the most accurate passer, but not erratic either. The other thing I like is the Pats can play this any way they want. They’ll play hard, but a loss is not the end of the world and a win is gravy.

  12. The 12z GFS has the same idea as the 6z for the end of the period. The storm crosses PR, then heads northward while exploding. The difference is, this time it does it about 300 miles farther east.

  13. The Pats defense won’t look like last week because Hightower should be back. They are a completely different team without him calling the signals on defense and anchoring the middle.

    Would anyone be surprised if the Pats came out on the first play of the game and Brissett threw one deep? Everyone is expecting a heavy-run game. Come out an air one out to start, just to get them thinking.

    1. Agree. They need to let the kid throw some with the run mixed in.
      I for one do NOT want them to run most plays. The kid can throw and he
      throws a good deep ball. Let’s see it!

    2. I was just going to post that about Hightower. Collins had a poor game, and I think partly because he was asked to call the defense; that’s Hightower’ s gig. with him back, I think it may be a different result.

    1. Awesome videos. In first I Suspect I would have used a bit stronger language. Terrifying. What touched me most was that he took a few minutes To observe the destruction of his own home and then turned to the safety of his neighbors.

      The cloud in the second looked like something in a scifi movie. When it started to come down it gave me chills

      The third was fascinating but didn’t have the impact for me that the first two had

      Thank you so much

  15. Following up on what SAK said about the GFS tropical system way out in time.

    For the same time period, ie: 10 days from now, while the GFS has the system farther East and a bit more North, the Euro also has this system.

    here it is:

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016092212/ecmwf_mslpa_watl_11.png

    So this is clearly something to watch.

    Oh and here is the GFS at the same time.

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016092212/gfs_mslpa_watl_41.png

    And here is the GFS as it gets up this way.

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016092212/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_47.png

    That is 945 mb, which could equate to a low end Cat 4 hurricane, certainly a decent
    CAT 3 as the mb conversion to category doesn’t quite apply the same way
    at this latitude. In any case, it would clearly be a potent system.

    So, it looks like IF it should come to be, there is kind of a wide range of solutions
    out there. Stay tuned. 😀

    2. Actually, even though it’s that strong, it likely isn’t completely tropical any more at that point. Probably in the middle of transitioning to extratropical, or a hybrid, similar to Sandy.

  17. The GFS and ECMWF both show support for the potential tropical event. The wave responsible for spawning it is just now emerging off Africa. Still early to be speculating, and it’s possible nothing happens at all as we’ve seen a lot of in the Atlantic this year. However, I’d rate the ECMWF “Caribbean cruiser” scenario as more likely than what is shown by the GFS where the storm winds up north of the Greater Antilles. Several reasons for that, involving both the tropical entity itself and its development, as well as the mid-latitude pattern. No need to get into details at this point though; we’ll no doubt see many variations in model runs over the coming days.

  18. Imagine what could have been accomplished if all of the rioters used the same amount of energy toward a collective positive act of kindness the last two days. Sky is the limit!

    1. Probably more to help block up front. He might catch a few, but he’s most likely more valuable tonight blocking.
      In really interested to see what their game plan looks like.
      Basic and simple I would think.

          1. I think you are correct. It gives QB7 another
            option and all he has to do is get the ball in
            the general vicinity of Gronk and he’ll catch it.

      2. I sure hope they let the kind throw the ball. I want to see what
        he can do. Simply handing it off each play shows us NOTHING.

  26. Solid half by the Pats. Let’s see if they got another one in them. I say yes.
    I think the Sox hold on.

    Speaking of holding on..the drought is going NOWHERE. Do you hear me? NO. WHERE. Even with room for a significant rain event in the next 2 weeks, assuming things come together, and we’ll need luck, we’re going to be adding a whole lot to the deficit between now and the end of 2016.

    1. I gave up thinking the drought would be gone too long ago to remember. I continue use to be surprised that all towns do not have a full ban

  27. That’s what they needed. Defense needs to play another 30 minutes. But offensively looks like a safe, clock running plan.
    Gronkowski a non factor so far.

  28. Even the normally over-juiced GEM gives Boston only about 0.40 inch of rain through 240 hours (12z run).

  30. Game plan is working like a charm. Shorten the game, short passes to the outside. No underneath over the middle stuff that could get picked off. I don’t think a slot receiver has caught a ball all night.
    Defense has smothered them, and special teams has come big.

  31. What can I say about the Pats… I don’t know how they do it. Granted, sloppy play and a terrible game plan by Houston is a factor, but that doesn’t take away what the defense has done. And how about Ryan Allen too? Field position has been huge.

  32. And while all of us had our attention on Foxborough, the Red Sox won their 8th in a row tonight. Magic number to clinch a playoff spot is 3 and to clinch the division is 5.

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