Tuesday Forecast

84 Comments

7:18AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 27-OCTOBER 1)…
The idea today is generally the same as yesterday, so this update is basically a carrying forward of what was on the previous blog post. A cold front moves across the region today but slows down and comes to a stop just offshore tonight. The next few days will see a trough of low pressure drop southward from the Great Lakes to the Ohio Valley, cut off from the main flow, and mill around southwest of New England. The front that goes by today will carry a low pressure area southeast of New England Wednesday and this will help set up an east to northeast air flow as high pressure banks itself north of the region. This air flow will remain in place through late week. Eventually the low to the southwest will get closer and this may increase the rain risk around Friday/Saturday after just spotty mist and showers Wednesday/Thursday.
TODAY: Cloudy with rain showers ending west to east this morning. Partial clearing west to east midday and afternoon. Highs 62-70. Wind SW to W 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 52-60. Wind light variable.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Spotty drizzle and isolated showers. Highs 66-74.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows 50-58. Highs 62-70.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows 52-60. Highs 64-72.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows 50-58. Highs 60-68.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 2-6)…
Episodic showers early to mid period with a similar set up to what we see take place during the next few days. Also may need to watch a tropical system or its associated moisture by the very end of the period, but high uncertainty on that.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 7-11)…
A potential tropical system to the south may at least send some of its moisture northward toward or into the region early in the period with a rain risk. This would be followed by drier weather, initially cooler, then with a warm-up.

84 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  1. It appears that the beginnings of the end of our long term drought ahead during the next few weeks? We will see.

    1. Not even close. Long term regime is still dry. And we may not even get all that much rain out of this upcoming “interruption” unless tropical systems get involved, directly or indirectly.

  6. Good morning and thank you TK. Some rain. yeah

    0.26 inch at my house so far with a bit of rain still falling. Just about done.

    re: Invest-97L

    OZ GFS

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016092700/gfs_pres_wind_97L_40.png

    6Z GFS

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016092706/gfs_pres_wind_97L_41.png

    Either way we would be spared Major wind, yet benefit from some substantial rain.

    Wouldn’t that be nice. Still 10 days out and we know what that means. Many different
    solutions on the horizon.

    CMC has it mill about off of the mid-Atlantic before finally moving ots.

    The Euro is a little slower and in 10 days has it over the North Coast of Central Cuba.

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016092700/ecmwf_mslpa_us_11.png

    500 MB

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016092700/ecmwf_z500a_us_11.png

    300 MB

    http://imgur.com/a/QIIQF

  9. Thanks TK.
    Interesting runs by both 6z and 0z GFS
    This day in the weather history 31 years ago Hurricane Gloria made landfall in CT. This was the last hurricane to make landfall in CT..

      1. One of my favorite times in my life. I was a senior in high school and spent the week at my best friend’s house since school was closed. Such great memories.

  10. I don’t remember Gloria since I was a year old at the time but it the first big storm to affect CT in my lifetime. When I look back its amazing how much weather I have witnessed in my life just living here from Northeast Tornado Outbreak of 89 Super Storm of 93 the 95-96 winter including the Blizzard in January 96 April Fools Storm of 97 Irene October Noreaster 2011 Sandy and Blizzard of 2013.

  11. The aftermath of Gloria was my very first memory. I was only 2 but its not uncommon to have memories of traumatic events prior to age 4. All I remember is seeing a huge tree laying across our street right in front of the house. Gloria wasn’t a huge rain maker in eastern MA, but will be remembered for the wind.

    2. This is one of my favorite maps. I especially like to look at this in the Winter.
      I just wish it were available on a more timely basis.

  14. If it goes over Hispanola or Cuba that could rip this part since a lot of mountainous terrain there. Then the question can it get itself back together when getting back over the water.

    1. Well on Hispanola, Pico Duarte exceeds 3000 meters (9843 feet) elevation.
      So I suppose that could cause some problems for a Tropical entity, however,
      models show it pretty much maintaining intensity. Also, there is a chance
      it sneaks up in between Hispanola and Cuba. It needs to be watched.
      And even if it weakens, it will re-enter some mighty warm water so it should
      be able regain at least some of it’s former strength.

    1. On this potential projected track (spaghetti plots), this entity would have a lot of ocean heat content to work with. If the upper level environment is ever favorable ……..

  16. That 2 week “window of opportunity”(Sep 24 thru Oct 7) that was introduced last week is open. Got the first shot this morning, though brief and not generally that helpful. We wait and see to find out what else may fly in…

    1. I have been anxiously awaiting this 2-week “window of opportunity” to see what may transpire. When TK speaks, I listen. 🙂

      1. I hold out hope for Friday and/or Saturday. Also, the potential tropical moisture later the following week. After that the window slams shut.

  18. The aftermath of Gloria dulled the fall foliage IIRC much like the current drought conditions will do this fall as well.

  19. Comparing ooz 500mb chart to 12z 500 mb chart, enough of a difference seen in the strength of the Atlantic Ridge for the eastward displacement of the projected track on the 12z run.

    The 00z run has a 588 dm atlantic ridge that is more amplified, where the 12z run has it at 576 to 582 dm and is a flatter ridge.

    1. Interesting, Sue. So he thinks past Jamaica before turning. And Friday into Sat to make the decision. Thank you.

  21. GFS is changing quite a bit from run to run, EURO somewhat consistent with the storm staying near Cuba around 10 days from now.

    1. I suppose IF that trough does some digging, there is a possibility that it
      could get up here or at least part of it. Time will tell.

        1. Well of course, that’s a given. Didn’t I say it looked destined to got OTS? In fact, that looks more
          likely than it digging. But we shall see.

  25. For the record, I stand by what I say about the models and tropicals, but if you want to lean toward something based on track record of placement of systems, go with the GFS as far out as you find consistency. In the beyond where there is less, disregard it.

    1. Hmmmm. If I understood Bernie correctly he said toss the GFS. I have to say I truly enjoy learning different perspectives; but when all is said and done, I’ll stay with camp TK

      1. In all fairness to Bernie he also said he doesn’t look at model tracks. He tries to understand stream flow. In my limited understanding, my sense is that is what gels with what euro is seeing…..more west

        1. He also said old rule of thumb is that if it isn’t storm by time it reaches islands it won’t be until it reaches central Caribbean. All of my wonderous knowledge is thanks to Sue’s link above 😉

          1. My reference was really more toward the past performance. Perhaps it means nothing. I tend to take Bernie’s approach myself with these.

            1. That was my point. Like you..if I understand him correctly…he doesn’t go by model runs. He was not promoting euro but just saying the euro is following his current way of thinking. Sounds like someone else I know. 🙂

  26. The paragraph below is from the NWS discussion today. Not much more needs to be said. 97L is a more imminent threat for parts of the Caribbean, but for us, we have plenty of time to watch it and there’s no telling whether it’ll have any impacts here, direct or indirect. Watch yes, worry no.

    “Beyond that, still way too early to say much on Invest 97L. We`re
    sure many folks have seen longer range track guidance but we need to
    caution against jumping on any one particular solution. Our advice
    is to stay aware and informed over the next several days.”

    1. I think we are all in agreement on that. And even when we psot a model direct
      hit for SNE, we know all too well that it is so far out in time, the solution
      is highly UNLIKELY to verify. Even so, we love to look at those models and
      watch them struggle. 😀

      1. That’s the 60KM version. The 30KM and 15KM are not ready yet.
        I did see the 30KM out to 168 hours and it is more North and West than the 60KM counterpart. I’d like to see later frames
        of that one. I may be busy this evening and not have a chance
        to post it.

        If anyone is interested, here is the main link to the FIM site:

        http://fim.noaa.gov/

        Once there you can select the 60KM, the 30KM or the 15KM

        Actually, it might be best to go here:

        http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=fim9_jet

        And in the model drop down select on of these:

        15KM FIM9_jet
        30KM FIM9_jet
        60 KM FIM_jet

        All of the other ones in there are more experimental.
        By all means check them out if you like.

      1. ok, well …. the 264 and 276 hr frames just brought me back to earth. A left hook, then a stall. That looks suspicious ….

        Anyhow, that was an entertaining run.

        2. Again, your ability to pick things out shines quite brightly. There is a problem with this run. This solution is highly unlikely.

          1. Many thanks TK !

            I was following your guidance from an earlier post. To paraphrase, I believe you suggested we follow the GFS for its placement of features until we got to a point where there didn’t seem to be run to run consistency. And it was that advice that made me write the above post, because once I saw the projected hurricane get captured by the upper level low, well that didn’t look very consistent with anything from previous runs.

  31. So that’s 4 of the last 5 runs by the operational GFS have had a Northeast US landfall with one near miss out to sea….

    1. I’m surprised the hype hasn’t been more than it has so far. Yeah, I would expect it to ramp up after the last 24 hours of model runs!

      1. Maybe people are starting to realize that these runs mean diddlycrap this far out…or they are too busy arguing politics, which I am VERY glad did not make its way onto this blog. 😀

  34. This to me is like a model showing 12-24 inches of snow a week or more out. Rarely when a model shows something like that far out it happens. I am not buying the 18z GFS but with that said this needs to be watched.

  35. Watched the Bernie Rayno video twice.
    GFS v. ECMWF
    American v. European

    It’s like the Ryder Cup of weather models!

    Looking forward to a fun weekend of golf at Hazeltine in Minnesota. Love the excitement and format of the Ryder Cup!

    1. The Ryder cup was one of Macs favorites. I still can’t watch golf…can’t even look at a golf course when I drive by but like hearing here what is on so I sort of keep up.

      1. I understand – if only just a little bit- Vicki. I am not sure I will ever play again the course my dad and I played so often. Mac was so blessed to have you. 🙂

        1. Thank you, MassBay. What a lovely sentiment to begin my day. Although, I think I was the one who was blessed 🙂

          And I believe you understand far more than a little. I’m so very happy you have that wonderful memory with your dad. Memories can be bittersweet, but they can never be taken from us and the keep our loved ones very close.

  36. I am truly into the country living thing. Farm day here in Sutton….both weekend days. Sure would appreciate it if you’d let us know which weekend day will be better and also if rain is expected all day either day. Thank you!!!

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