Sunday Forecast

105 Comments

10:17AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 2-6)…
Upper level low pressure lifts through the region from the southwest while weakening and dissipating through Monday. Drizzle and a few more showers will be around through that time. Better weather for Tuesday and midweek as weak high pressure builds into the region.
TODAY: Cloudy. Patchy drizzle and light rain showers. Highs 56-63. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Patchy drizzle. Areas of fog. Lows 50-56. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 57-64. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Lows 50-56. Highs 58-65.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Lows 52-58. Highs 60-68.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 52-58. Highs 62-70.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 7-11)…
Continuing to watch for any possible impacts from Matthew during this time. There is still enough uncertainty to not really be able to come close to nailing anything down yet. My current thoughts are that we see fair weather October 7, unsettled weather with a northward extension of tropical moisture for part of October 8 with clearing following as Matthew stays offshore on October 9, then fair weather October 10-11. Obviously, much fine-tuning will be upcoming. See the comments below for more thoughts as the day goes on!

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 12-16)…
Tranquil, mild pattern expected toward mid month.

105 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  1. My thoughts on Matthew for now: Into the Bahamas by Tuesday, then up towards, but offshore of Eastern NC by Thursday. After that? I can’t answer that right now.

    1. SAK is no different, and I include JMA in this same category. Very pleased to have them here to add their expertise!

  3. Thanks TK! I had the pleasure of meeting South Shore Kid and his wife last night. We talked about how wonderful it is to be a part of this blog.

    1. Met “The Kid” earlier in the summer. It was a pleasure getting to meet another WHW resident. 😉

  4. Thanks TK as always!

    According to WEEI, Brissett will start and Garroppolo will be inactive for today.

    1. We still have a way to go before declaring that a certainty. It’s far from it at this point. It’s my leaning, but it’s only a slight lean right now.

  8. FYI-As you can see by my post on the previous blog I refer to Matthew by his middle name Michael.

    Whenever I capitalize an M my phone now completes Michael…

    1. I think we can all root for that run to verify. Keeps Matthew far offshore but hits us with a heavy rain event in its place. We get the rain, miss the wind.

      2. Yea, that gives us rain sat night into Sunday morning with the center well off shore. I’m sure that depiction will change run to run, but I think that’s the general idea TK and JMA had. It’s also what the ensembles indicate. Timing differences between the models, but the general idea seems to be getting a little less muddy. JMA’s analogy of what to look for re: a winter storm makes a lot of sense if you look at the evolution of the 500 mb and 850 plots through time and what the CONUS pattern does to the TC.

        1. You can be sure that run will not be the final solution down to the letter. I think it may have a decent idea of what transpires, BUT as SAK said and I agreed above, there is still a lot of time between now and then and I’m only confident for a few days on the track, and much less so after that.

      1. The issue is they’re not going to have a lot of offense today. They can’t afford to go down 10-14 points. There’s not enough fire power on the offensive side of the ball to dig out of a hole. They needed to defense to come up with some stops and so far that’s not happened.
        Offense has had 3 possessions and had a 3 and out each time, which is not surprising. The lack of defense shocks me a bit.

        1. Or they lose a game or they don’t….but sadly cannot control from here :).

          Too many folks saying after last week saying that win gave the pats 4. call it bad karma or cocky that will typically backfire but, like TK, I have had a bad feeling about this game all week. Doesn’t mean they will lose but I never expected it to be a shoe in and did expect it to be somewhat ugly

  13. I wouldn’t worry about the Pats too much… Possibly a long day ahead, but we’ll be a solid 3-1 at the end of it, leading our division, with TB12 ready to light it up next week. The Bills aren’t a great matchup for us IMO.

    1. Agree. But the lack of defense and inconsistency across these 4 games is a little concerning long term.

  14. I’d had a feeling they’d struggle in this game. So far, they are. It doesn’t mean they will lose (at this point there is plenty of time – talk to me in the 4th quarter). If they do lose, 3-1 is NOT bad without Brady. Still hoping for 4-0.

  16. Seriously think Goodell might be tampering with this game. That officiating was atrocious. First they spot Blount 1 yard short of where he actually got, costing him a 1st down. Then the BS “not in position” call. And finally a phantom hold.

    1. I detest seeing bad officiating and the two instances you mention are Inexcusible. I put nothing past Goodell.

  17. I don’t buy into conspiracy theories.
    But that crew (Pete Morelli) is basically the worst crew in the league. Tripplet is no great shakes, but Morelli shouldn’t ref a high school game.

    1. I do not either…..but there is always an exception that proves the rule. I suspect there are a lot of things in NFL that might fit into that category

  18. 13-0 at the half really isn’t that bad. And it should be 13-3 or even 13-7 if not for a couple of gifts by the officials. Still, the Pats were outplayed on both sides of the ball. Brisset definitely isn’t 100%, and the defense was lackluster at best. Couldn’t get off the field.

  19. Ugly Football.

    I was watching the PUKE Bowl!

    So much for the Pats winning handily. Oh well.

    I WISH the offense weren’t so damn conservative! It’s PATHETIC!
    QB7 proved his thumb is OK enough to throw. Let him FREAKIN throw the ball!!!!!
    They are NOT going to win with Blount going nowhere run after run after run!!!

    We are LUCKY to onlyu be down 13-0.

    Buffalo gets the ball after the 1/2. Pats best STOP them right then and there, else it is OVA!

    1. It was pretty much over when Edelman’s almost TD run was called back. Hopefully Brady’s return will right the ship.

      1. If it wasn’t for the hold, Edelman wouldn’t have made any gain really. It was the hold that sprung him. That was a actually a good call by the ref.

  22. TK – How did you figure that the Pats would have problems today?

    I will say brilliant on your part…unfortunately. 😉

    1. I’m not TK but They have a tendency to not do well when the consensus is that the game is a given. It always makes me squirrelly. The pats were not assuming they would win but the masses were.

    2. No offense, period. They had to hold the Bills to less than 14. But then again if they don’t score any points, a field goal by the Bills wins it.
      Brissett just can’t execute the play book. The Bills aren’t as inept as Houston, either.

    3. Partly what Vicki said and I just had a feeling when I looked at the schedule that this would be the first one to give them issues. I don’t tend to look at things the way many people do, because I was pretty sure they would win games 1, 2, and 3, and they did. Game 4 worried me from several weeks ago, and it’s proving to be a founded feeling. Coincidence and/or luck? Perhaps. No way to tell.

      As I type this, there are 9 minutes to go, so it’s not “over”. But even if they came back to win, the overall play in this game would be rated as poor.

  23. Just one of those days where everything went wrong. I was mostly alright with it until those two missed sacks on Taylor; that was horrifying. Other than that, my biggest concern is actually the O-line, because that group did not look good at all. Brady coming back won’t fix that.

    1. That o line is pretty bad. They need a new left tackle. I knew Solder was bad 2 years ago. He just hasn’t improved much in 4 years.

    2. But not being quite so sure of themselves might help. Overconfidence has a history of biting this team in the posterior. We have seen it is far more important games than this….a particularly ugly Super Bowl comes to mind 🙂

      1. It’s just a plain bad game for the team. They happen. Hopefully that’s the worst we see this season.

  24. After viewing the 12z ECMWF the same thought process continues. Moderately high confidence of the track until about NC, then very low after that. If there is one thing that is consistent, it’s the INconsistency of the ECMWF model.

  25. I have reconsidered Goodell. I now believe the pats, being generous competitors, decided to give another team a chance……that’s my story and I’m sticking to it.

  26. I would have thought that Brissett would at least have heaved a Hail Mary into the end zone on the final play. 🙁

    Also, maybe some kicking competition come training camp 2017 perhaps? 😉

    IMO Gostkowski is just as responsible for the shutout as the rest of the offense. Only the punter Allen truly did his job today.

    1. No need for the hail mary and the injury risk. They were going to lose. Being shut out or losing 16-7 makes no difference in the stats and makes no difference to BB. He’ll give them some hell, then move onto prep for the next game.

      They sucked in this game. They do NOT suck overall. End of story for today. Next! 😀

  27. re: Pats
    Nothing went right for them, Nothing. Game over

    re: Matthew

    I am not convinced we are out of the woods on this just yet.

    Onto the 0Z runs.

    1. I think it rains pretty good. The brunt goes east OTS. Whatever it is, I think the timing is more GFS. The euro doesn’t have this in here till New Year’s Day……2018!

      1. Still some time, but we are getting close to where the models
        should have a better handle and more consensus.

        If we can get some beneficial rain, then that is a win. 😀

        1. Rain for sure. I could do without the damaging winds. I hate to see anything that costs homeowners money.

  29. NAM comedy: 18z wants to take the center of Matthew west of the Bahamas and toward the Florida Keys. 😉

    1. Since it’s a solid week away from there, they’ll just be watching.
      If 18z GFS were correct, they’d get a solid post-tropical cyclone about 1 week from today with pretty powerful wind, but nothing they haven’t seen before.

  31. We’re set to camp up in coastal Maine near old orchard beach next weekend.

    Hope things solidify by mid week so we know how to prepare.

  32. With all the caveats of an 18z model, it looks fairly similar to the 12z. Also, the operational is coming more into line with the GEFS.
    Euro still a little slower, and more south and east. We’ll see what the 0z looks like on the euro. I’d think by Tuesday night/Wednesday we should know what the track is.
    At any rate, I think I should get out of here on Columbus Day. I just hope we get some decent rainfall.

  33. I’m very happy the Patriots are 3-1 and hope Brady transitions back smoothly and Gronk looks more like Gronk with each passing week. Bill and his staff are brilliant, but at some point, losing key players eventually catches up with you.

    I AM disappointed with the Red Sox who lost 5 of their last 6 and let Cleveland leap frog them for home field in their series.

  36. I did not watch most of the Pats today nor any of the Sox. Instead I was in Lowell for an exhibition hockey game between the University of Prince Edward Island, and the University of Massachusetts-Lowell (where both TK and I got our meteorology degrees). At least I got to see a good sporting match, as the RiverHawks (currently ranked #8 in the nation), smoked UPEI 7-0. (I have been a UML season Ticket Holder since 2000).

    I’ll be doing my usual Storm HQ Weekly Outlook after the 00z models are mostly in, and will include my thoughts on Matthew in there. I’ll post the link here once its published.

  37. 7 year olds birthday party on Sunday so hoping Mathew gets crushed by high pressure coming in.

    Pats will be fine as long as Gronk is fine. Brady will come out guns blazing.

      1. he got inside source back about 4 days before that Jimmy g was not ready, that Brissett was still injured and recieved the game plan of the patriots.
        My sources inside the New England Patriot building said that Jacoby Brissett would be the quarterback,” said Bills head coach Rex Ryan in his postgame presser

        “We had some inside knowledge that [Jacoby Brissett] was probably going to play today,” said Bills linebacker Preston Brown. “Knowing that he was going to play we knew we were going to get a lot of passes to our left side, easy one-sided reads, so we tried to limit that and pack that side.”

        I am hoping for an investigation and loss of draft picks

        1. I saw on FB. BB and the team won’t give a darn. They don’t play victim. If they do, I’ll be the most surprised person in the world. The bills didn’t cause the mistakes we made.

          We can debate this on FB 🙂 And back to weather

  41. 0z GFS operational is back west storm with the storm track over Nantucket.
    0z GFS ensemble mean is also well west of 12z with the mean just southeast of the benchmark and 9 members near or inside the benchmark:

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/14L_gefs_latest.png

    If we could hold that mean track, it would be the perfect scenario for SNE – far enough off shore to avert major wind damage but close enough to deliver a beneficial rain as the western flank of the storm interacts with the approaching cold front from the west.

  42. By the way, the GFS again initialized with the storm at 993mb while actual pressure is 943mb. It has been consistently initializing a whopping 50mb weaker than actual storm strength. Euro has been doing it too. Is this typical bias for global models when forecasting tropical systems?

    1. These models have a grid spacing of several km. The central pressure is localized to a small area and rapidly rises as you head away from it. The average pressure around the single grid the storm is in will be significantly higher than the central pressure, so it does get smoothed out.

      For the GFS, visualize a square that is 13km long and wide. Somewhere inside this square, the pressure is 943mb, but once you move away from that one point, pressure increases rapidly. The average inside that square is probably a lot closer to 993 than the 943 minimum.

  43. Hmmm
    I haven’t a clue as to what the euro Is up to.
    All other mideas have
    Matthew impacting us in some for or another.

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