Tuesday Forecast

337 Comments

7:13AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 4-8)…
Upper level low pressure sinks away to the south while dissipate today and a high pressure area ridged just north of the region will drift southward over the region through Wednesday. Improving weather will take place these 2 days. Fair and milder as high pressure drifts more to the south Thursday-Friday. Fair weather should hold into Saturday, but we’ll also be watching Matthew, whose final track is still far from a certainty. By Saturday it should be somewhere in the vicinity of the Carolinas, near or just offshore. Details to be worked out…
TODAY: Mainly cloudy with areas of drizzle and patchy fog and a few rain showers this morning. Decreasing clouds / increasing sun afternoon. Highs 58-65. Wind NE 5-15 MPH gusting up to 20 MPH especially near the coast.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Patchy fog overnight. Lows 40-46 interior areas, coolest in the valleys, 47-52 coastal locations. Wind light NE to N.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-68. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 40-53, coolest interior valleys, mildest shoreline. Highs 65-73.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 45-55, coolest interior valleys. Highs 68-75.
SATURDAY: Sunny start, cloudy finish. Risk of rain at night. Lows 50-58. Highs 70-78.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 9-13)…
Still some uncertainty, but the leaning is for Matthew to pass southeast of New England as a very strong storm transitioning from tropical to non-tropical, during Sunday October 9. Rain is most likely for at least some of this day due to a northward extension of moisture from this system interacting with a cold front moving through from the west. Will fine-tune as it gets closer. Drier, windy October 10. Fair and mild October 11-13.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 14-18)…
Mainly dry weather. Above normal temperatures expected.

337 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  2. I would welcome folks’ thoughts on Matthew… Do we haul the boat this week? It’s on a solid mooring sheltered between Winthrop and Logan. What would we expect for wind direction from Matthew at the peak of whatever we end up getting? This makes a difference up to a point.

    The past three weekends haven’t been good for boaters… but we had a spectacular rest of the summer.

    1. Glad the summer was awesome !

      If the EURO verifies, then I think the boat would be ok. If some of the other models verify, then it might be worth getting the boat hauled.

      Can you wait another day or 2 for more information from the weather models ?

      1. Ah well, it looks like we’ve decided to haul on Thursday. Tis a shame the end of the season went the way it did.

  3. Thanks TK !

    You continue to provide an accurate, sound, focused and appropriately measured presentation of Matthew, as well as our own local weather. Superb !!!

  4. Thanks again TK. Enjoying your consistent, level-headed approach to tracking Matthew. Obviously not an easy forecast, and we still have a lot of details to work out.

    Matthew is a buzzsaw this morning, he appears to have made landfall in Haiti, likely as an upper end category 4 hurricane. Next stop for him, the Bahamas, then potentially the Southeast US coast, where people will very soon have to start activating their emergency plans.

  9. Good morning again and thank you for the update TK.

    Geez the GFS cannot be consistent run to run. oZ virtually a direct hit, while 6Z is off shore still affecting us, but NOT like the 0Z run.

    What will the 12Z run show?

  12. FWIW, the Euro maintains some significant strength to Matthew all the way
    to our latitude at 966 mb. I am wondering if the 12Z Euro brings Matthew even
    a bit closer? OR moves it back off shore more?

    We shall see.

  13. Good Morning and thank you, TK.

    I have not seen reports from Haiti? Has anyone?

    Looking (as of now) that Matthew will affect the southern coastal states. Years ago they would have already been preparing. Not sure who is at the helm now but hope that whomever it is has the same approach as the folks who went before them. Although, it is a seasoned group of people. I do remember them being aghast at the lack of planning and then poor execution for Katrina.

    1. Notice that eye fill in while briefly over land. Let’s see IF it opens up again
      once it is fully over water again.

    2. Is that showing a bit more of a GA hit than SC?

      My sister in law has her last flight of almost 48 years on the 7th. It is out of Atlanta.

  19. 6Z HWRF takes the inland route up here all the way from the Carolinas.

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf-p/2016100406/hwrf-p_mslp_wind_14L_39.png

    While the GFDL stays pretty much off shore, although very briefly over land in North Carolina.

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfdl-p/2016100406/gfdl-p_mslp_wind_14L_22.png

    The GFDL solution would be pretty bad for SNE while the HWRF would be no
    big deal other than a bunch of rain.

    12Z runs to come.

  22. Thoughts and prayers are with the people of Haiti. My sister-in-law in Jamaica has reported that they were spared in Jamaica, as we already know. Their biggest complaint is that they took all their money to buy food in preparation of the storm. She said the grocery stores were practically empty.

      1. You’ll get out. I’m getting closer to being very confident of the track and speed. Not there yet….

        1. Do you think I’ll be able to get my trip in this weekend on Long Island?? I leave Fri morning and come back Sun night

              1. Rain Sat eve thru Sunday mid-afternoon initial feeling. Wind comes later, indirectly related.

                1. I was more concerned about how bad everything is going to be backed up on Monday and flight cancelled because they couldn’t get equipment in position from the day before (Sunday)

    1. Thanks Ace. If that track holds and continues towards or just south of Nantucket, we should have good soaking rains with hopefully not much in the way of damaging winds. Now my concern though is with my Mid-Atlantic relatives in VA and NC.

  27. Today’s 12z EURO may be a mover for me in terms of making some simple, but initial preparations. For example, if the EURO shifts greatly enough to the west to come over the Cape, that might set things in motion for me. If it stays out where it has been, I still won’t do anything.

    2. Expanding post tropical Matthew beginning a phase with low pressure in eastern Canada. They get a sideswipe by a pretty strong storm similar to those of the cold season.

  29. Meanwhile, Tropocal Storm Nicole as formed NE of Matthew. Blocking his exit to the east perhaps? Or…will she help to slingshot him under that ridge and way OTS?

            1. It has, just don’t have the battery backup on the pump so I get nervous when wind will be involved and potential loss of power.

  30. I need to see one more thing in a while then I may be able to explain why I think I have the track beyond the Carolina Coast figured out. Probably sometime between 3 and 6 PM I can do it.

  31. 12z GFS is bad for the Southeast, but pretty much leaves us high and dry. Matthew goes well out to sea and even the PRE isn’t that impressive. 1-2″ of rain. Would be much needed, but we could take more without running a major flood risk.

  33. 12z GFS came around to basically the euro solution from yesterday, or earlier. Not exactly the same, but fairly close.
    If this GFS run verifies, or something close to it, I’ve seen better rain and wind storms from a straight frontal passage.
    Waiting on the 12z Euro

  34. Canadian is also east. Could this be the trend. Are they all trending towards the Euro. This will be a huge win for the Euro if that’s the case

  35. When does the 12z Euro “drop” as my students and sons would say when referring to new music?

  37. Just got out of an almost 3 hour meeting to see that the GFS and the CMC have shifted
    off shore considerably. Then I see the new NHC track. I think they may be placing
    too much weight on their 2 hurricane models. It appears to be too far West now.

    Still waiting on the Euro, which I fully expect to be back farther off shore.

    We shall see.

        1. Still doesn’t have that well defined eye. It’s there, but
          it is not that spectacular doughnut hole.

          Look at the loop I posted and honestly tell me how
          you think it looks? 😀

          1. Not as good on the loop no question – looks like the eye is in the process of regenerating itself. That should happen fairly quickly though as interaction with land will be minimal moving forward.

            1. Oh, I totally agree. I was somewhat surprised that it deteriorated as much
              as it did going over that small bit of land, albeit some higher terrain.

  40. 12z HWRF crushes the outer banks:
    https://www.americanwx.com/bb/applications/core/interface/imageproxy/imageproxy.php?img=http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2016100412/hwrf_mslp_wind_14L_33.png&key=ea260492f3da36efc09866b94b14178d967858d08f402756423388f6079b02bb

    Whereas the 12z GFDL decimates south FLA with landfall at Ft Lauderdale as a Cat 5/926mb:
    https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2016_10/gfdl_mslp_uv850_14L_12.png.2ddf01b16d16c33fa11742e47de35cd4.png

    1. GFDL has max winds at 150 knots OR about 173 mph.
      Think about that one for a few.

      It’s over done, but unbelievably scary.

      1. I’m sorry, it’s 156 knots. I read the 6 as a o. (eye sight is going)

        That’s 179.5 mph!!! Totally and completely devastating!
        Let us hope this does not come to pass.

    1. I was waiting for that. When I didn’t see the initialization frame at near
      2PM, I strongly suspected something was up. FIGURES!!!

      I wonder IF the run will be F’d up as well????

  42. Tweet from Eric Fisher not too long ago:

    Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 45m45 minutes ago
    Here’s the rub – the faster #Matthew moves, the more likely it comes up the coast. The slower it moves, the farther out to sea after NC.

      1. Sorta kinda but not 100%. It would have to be taking a different trajectory and hauling. Never has a chance.

    2. In my opinion this is wrong. The path this thing would have to take to do that would mean an altering of the locations of the off shore trough and the SE ridge.

  44. Before everyone says “oh look, farther out to sea, that means less rain from the PRE”, remember this – the models ALWAYS underestimate these and other extreme precip events until you get within about 48 hours of them.

    Also, remember that the one in 1996, which dumped 6-12 inches of rain on Southern New England came with Hurricane Lili never getting north of 35N latitude.

  45. The 12z GFS run literally flirts with the entire southeast coast line practically tracing it without landfall. If this would occur, the eye wall would devastate a long swath of the southeast coast line all the way up to NC without weakening much. Thereafter Matthew would appear to fly harmlessly out to sea.

    1. Actually, it would weaken it…..a lot. Just because the eye is offshore doesn’t mean it won’t weaken. if half the circulation is over land, it would likely cause steady weakening.

      1. Even if it weakens, isn’t the left side the rain producing side? There is a lot of low country down that way. Could flooding in multiple states be a real problem if (emphasis on IF) it were to run up the coast?

    1. Then rides along the coast and takes a right Hook out into the ocean
      off of Georgia and South Carolina?????

      1. Does a complete loop and goes across Florida and dies in
        the gulf. It was delayed, so perhaps it is royally f’d up!!

        Insane loop

  50. 12z Euro makes landfall near Fort Lauderdale (similar to the GFDL) as a major hurricane, then rides up the Florida Turnpike to Orlando before turning northeast – it is sitting over Jacksonville at hour 96, then due east of Savannah GA back over the water at hour 108 – looks destined to go ENE way out to sea.

  52. Hardly a drop of rain in the Boston area on the Euro through day 6. A little more to the west (up to half an inch). Just anything we can squeeze out of that cold front. No effects from Matthew at all.

  53. The ECMWF takes Matthew into FL, up into the Southeast, loops it back over water, down and back into Florida AGAIN as a tropical storm, then westward into the Gulf.

    I don’t even know what to say about that.

    1. My feeling is that “something” happened to that run.

      Could it possibly be correct? Sure seemed screwed up to me.

      1. UKMET has the same thing though. Those are the two best models in the world, and UKMET was first to suggest the possible Florida strike. It’s not impossible.

          1. Same general idea I mean. Keeps Matthew far to the south through 6 days. Even a few GFS and CMC ensembles show something similar.

    2. Very healthy looking eye there. Appears to have recovered from any damage it sustained crossing the southern peninsula of Haiti.

  56. Well congratulations are in order for Fort Lauderdale, hit two times in a week by the same hurricane!

    My guess is that the very few of the Euro’s ensemble members are going to support the operational.

    1. Not a surprise. Need to call my friends down there. They used to be incredibly proactive. They did very well considering through Hugo

  58. Tweet from Ryan Hanrahan on latest EURO run.
    Biggest change on the new ECMWF is that it is much slower through the Bahamas. Trough to the north misses Matthew entirely.

  59. Some tweets from Eric Fisher:

    Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 53m53 minutes ago
    No real words for what the Euro just came in with. Might be a complete anomaly. We’ll have to see what ensembles look like.
    4 retweets 17 likes
    Reply Retweet 4
    Like 17
    More
    Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 57m57 minutes ago
    Eric Fisher Retweeted JOkie44
    IF it’s right (and it’s alone right now)….would essentially mean a sunny pleasant weekend in New England. Uncertainty still abounds!Eric Fisher added,
    JOkie44 @JOConnor44
    @ericfisher whats that mean for us here in MA?
    0 retweets 6 likes
    Reply Retweet
    Like 6
    More
    Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 59m59 minutes ago
    The Euro comes in fashionably late…and doesn’t disappoint. Quite a wild solution it came up with. Way more ridge dominant, less trough.

  60. There is a real shot that the new ECMWF solution can verify due to that slower movement.

    Forecasting the speed of a hurricane is always a very tricky thing to do when it’s still deep in the tropics, and just “several hours” slower can result in a complete miss by the trough, and then the destiny of the circulation is governed by the ridge.

    I agree with checking the ensembles and the 18z GFS for comparison.

  61. by looking at the current maps and the best computer models are showing a direct hit on ft Lauderdale. Do you think this will verify. Some are saying that it will come in as a cat 5. This will prove more dangerous than hurricane Andrew! What are your thoughts on this situation?

    1. Welcome! I am still not convinced of a hit of that magnitude there. The slower movement coming out of Cuba and into the Bahamas may change the game somewhat, but I am not quite sure what that change will be. I do not think, for the most part, this would top Andrew, since that hurricane made a beeline right through one of the most populated areas in the country, let alone Florida.

      There is still a chance that Matthew never makes a landfall there, but the region should prepare as if it is going to do it.

  63. thank you for your quick feedback. So if it comes out of Cuba slower will that effect the course that the models are predicting now? or will it stall just offshore and be more destructive? Will it still head just offshore of s florida?

    1. Well any slower movement and resultant different position would be taken into account with each model run. What the models do with that is somewhat a mystery. I don’t really see a stalling storm necessarily if this scenario should play out, but it could be one that loops about causing some issues for the region (maybe east coastal Florida to South Corolina) over an extended period of time. I’m still not sure if this takes place.

    1. NAM digs that trough and absolutely wants to bring matthew up here.

      Too bad we can’t forecast hurricanes with the NAM, eh? 😀

    1. I just posted what one particular model says it’s going to do.

      Unless I specifically post something along the lines of this is what I think
      it is going to do, I am generally just posting information, not a forecast.

      Also I am NOT a met. For forecasts, you want to listen to TK, our host and best met on the planet. Also 2 other absolutely outstanding mets in SAK and JMA are regular posters here.

      The rest of us post information and offer our thoughts and views in this
      outstanding forum.

    2. Sorry, I didn’t mean to not offer an opinion.

      It is difficult to say, but it is possible. It is also possible that they
      will be spared.

      Hurricanes are impossible. Please stay tuned. You will get good information
      here.

      I am waiting on the 18Z GFS, but am most interested in the whole 0Z model suite when ready.

  66. Just spoke to a friend in Charleston. They are heading inland later tonight along with everyone else. Will be interesting to see if all roads are opened so that all lanes go inland.

    1. Oh a distant lurker. Wow! No wonder you are concerned.

      Here is a zoomed in view of the Euro depiction Of Matthew. It actually does NOT come ashore in Florida until about mid state far to your North. However, it is very close and just to your North. Close enough for big time effects, but
      North of you to spare the absolute worst. (again assuming this verifies and right
      now who knows)

      Click on map for even closer, larger view

      http://imgur.com/a/tRYvy

    2. Oh boy. While it will be fun having someone here from a different location, right now I wish.,,,I know we all wish….for you to be safe.

  71. The end of that cone needs to be kinked more ENE oriented than NE. They have this thing coming way closer than is likely to occur based on the slower movement of the storm and latest guidance. The chances that this storm tracks somewhere in the western portion of that cone by the time it gets up to this latitude are fairly slim IMO. Not sure what they are seeing.

    1. They are using their well-known practice of step-by-step adjustments. They don’t make big ones all at once.

    1. I am reading that beyond 84 hours, there are two camps in the Euro ensembles…one of them stalls the storm out like the operational and the other brings it NE out to sea. There are no ensemble members that bring the storm north of the mid Atlantic.

      1. And last night, the majority of the Ensemble members were north of the Mid-Atlantic, with a mean just south and east of Nova Scotia. That kind of major shift in one run is a HUGE red flag, especially since the run before that also was trending towards a track just south of Nova Scotia.

  75. ‎@philklotzbach
    #Matthew has had a central pressure <= 950mb for past 96 hrs, setting October Atlantic record (since 1979) for <=950 mb longevity.

  76. 18z GFS doesn’t do the loop de loop, but did what I expected the 12zEuro to do. Does the coast hug up to about Jacksonville, NC, then turns due east OTS. Ends up about the lattitude of Virginia Beach then goes north east.
    We get a little rain off the cold front drawing moisture off the TC. Rain from late sat night to mid day Sunday then it’s over. Basically a non event for NE on that run.
    I suspect that’s pretty close to what happens in the end.

  78. Just for the record, Eric stated on air that he does NOT agree with the NHC track.

    GFS = up the coast towards Nantucket
    Euro = sits and sits just east of FL

    AJ Burnett on Ch. 5 compared the two models.

  79. Thanks to everyone for their concern and caring thoughts earlier today re Haiti – just getting caught up now. The latest news is that the hospital’s main campus in Fond Des Blancs is still operational and all of the patients and staff are ok. The road from PoP to FdB was taken out though by the flooding and like always they will need help immediately and no doubt it will be slow to arrive. So the next few days and weeks will be critical. St. Boniface is really the only available quality hospital on the s. Peninsula so it will be quite a load for them to carry. My friend Conor is leaving on a flight to the DR tonight – he is truly an amazing person and courageous leader. He grew up in my hometown of Concord MA btw….we do raise a good one now and again!

    1. Any bit of good news we can get will be very welcomed. We know it won’t all be great news down there, and some will be very bad. But let’s hope they did the best they possibly could have with the passage of this powerful storm, the first category 4 to go over them since the 1960s.

        1. I did see Conor on the news last night. One of Gods angels on earth. And I’d say Concord raised a good one with you as well, GettingBetter!!

    3. Thanks so much guys! I couldn’t agree more with Vickie about Conor. I believe strongly in the power of compassion and positive thought – if I’m right on that you guys helped and continue to help so much with your caring hearts.

      1. The knowledge and expertise on WHW is beyond comparison. But I think the very best of this blog is that the compassion and caring runs deep. I think there is a invisible…or perhaps not quite so invisible…thread that connects many of us.

  81. Ok. I’m reasonably confident that the weird loop of the op ECMWF was essentially an outlier compared to the ensembles. And just got a look at the 18z GFS ensembles too.

    75% sure this thing is going to have a hard time getting beyond about 35N until it’s hundreds of miles beyond Boston’s longitude.

    Is there a chance that the ECMWF’s op run can verify? Yes. I just don’t believe it will.

    1. Well there is still the matter of the rain event that may take place with a northward extension of tropical moisture along an approaching cold front. The jury is out on this part of it.

      That said, I would not cancel any plans right now.

      1. Great timing, TK. Daughter just txtd and asked if they should count out being able to leave for FL Sunday. I passed on your advice. She asked me to thank you.

        1. It is not out of the realm of possibility of having a beautiful weekend with a minor interruption from a passing front.

  83. Very slow movement over eastern Cuba tonight may weaken the hurricane just a little more than the forecast indicates. Would not surprise me to see it slightly weaker (5-10 MPH weaker than forecast) on one of the next 2 updates. Not a lock but very possible.

  84. Hi guys, random today I found a “fuzzy caterpillar” which was brown and blackish, my father (who is older) told me it’s an “old wives tale” about bad winters… has anyone heard this before?

    1. I’ve heard old timers say the wider the stripe the worse the winter. I never discount the wisdom of the ages

    2. Woolybear. The folklore says a narrow brown stripe portends a severe winter while a wide brown area foretells a mild one.

      Unfortunately, it is completely false, but fun folklore nonetheless. The stripe becomes wider as the caterpillar ages.

        1. 4 to 5 weeks to go and then I’ll give you a solid winter outlook.

          My eyes are on Siberia for the next 28 days.

            1. Somewhat. It is worth paying attention to it regarding the temperature outlook, moreso than the snowfall one.

        1. But…….”Mike Peters, an entomologist at the University of Massachusetts, doesn’t disagree, but he says there could, in fact, be a link between winter severity and the brown band of a woolly bear caterpillar. “There’s evidence,” he says, “that the number of brown hairs has to do with the age of the caterpillar—in other words, how late it got going in the spring. The [band] does say something about a heavy winter or an early spring. The only thing is … it’s telling you about the previous year.”

    1. Some of the GFS ensembles look like the 12z EURO.

      I guess that trof might just be too weak or far to the north and leave it behind. Leave it to the EURO to figure it out first.

      1. Trough too flat and timing of the storm moving out of the Caribbean too slow. Euro reigns as king again.

            1. It’s a great model, but far from infallible.

              The fact that the op run was basically the only one to do that up against its ensembles should be a red flag.

              1. Yes but my point was really that the Euro was first to pick up on the flatter trough and send this storm in an ENE direction well out to sea to the south of us. The GFS and hurricane models have now all bailed in the direction of the Euro. Op run today aside, it has had the right general idea.

                1. Of course as good as it has been with the big picture stuff, it is lacking consistency in the finer details which is creating a nightmare of a forecast for the southeast.

                2. Except that the trough in question won’t be onshore until the morning. At that point, once it’s sampled by the upper air network, then we’ll have a better idea of how strong it is. Right now, we don’t know for sure.

  89. Much of the coastal SC highways will have all lanes of traffic directed away from the coast starting tomorrow. It boggles my mind as we have travelled those highways many times pre and post Hugo, especially I-26 which was always a sign of comfort meaning we were almost there.

    1. At least they are there to be used. That is a good thing. 🙂

      Still leaning no-landfall scenario for the US.

  92. Bahamas get hit twice with 0z GFS. Then make a turn towards south Florida then is offshore at hour 240.

  94. After looking at the GFS, I keep hearing the same thing in my head over and over. Those of you old enough to remember this will understand…..

    “Well now….isn’t that special?”

    I stand by my earlier statement that until the trough moves into the West Coast Wednesday morning, I am treating all model solutions as suspect, because we still do not know exactly how strong that trough is.

    1. I think I hit my saturation point with the models struggles with this thing.

      I think I’m just going to watch the hurricane and let it tell me which way its going.

  98. DELAY on the new post. Will probably get a short version out as soon as I can then expand it this afternoon.

    Taking care of mom who has a bug that hit her pretty hard.

      1. Take care of your mother first TK! We can certainly continue posting here all day with no problem. 🙂

  100. WBZ news this morning showed a 10-year old video of Danielle Niles being interviewed on Wheel Of Fortune. She was in grad school at the time and introduced herself as a storm chaser and a huge Boston sports fan. Right off the bat, she won $1000. It wasn’t mentioned if she went on to win additional money but I didn’t get the impression that she went on to the bonus round.

    In addition, Danielle hasn’t changed a bit in appearance after 10 years. 😉

  102. Seems a bit concerning to me with a storm the size of Matthew, not far from the south coast of the United States, that there isn’t a better handle on where it is going. I’m not finding fault at all, but there are a lot of people to move along the coast . I’ve not noted any evacuations in FL but also missed that NC is evacuating some areas so may have missed some in FL as well. I would hate to be an individual responsible for the decision that could affect millions in those states.

    1. Agree. I think it is Pathetic! A disgrace actually.

      Oh I know, I know. The models do the best they can. Well, frankly, that
      AIN’T good enough. They need to be improved.

      And yes, I’m a bit cranky this morning. It happens as we age.

      1. I don’t think that is cranky – I think it is realistic. I am trying to figure how it supposedly/roughly be only three days from landfall in that area and nothing is any more certain this am than it was last night or two days ago. IMHO SC and NC are taking the responsible course of action. They may end up with nothing, but then again, no one seems to know with enough certainty to decide differently. I do know they have evacuated at least once before and it ended up being a TS. Residents seemed to understand the rationale. I cannot weigh in on FL because it has a different configuration than the states north of it.

        1. Yes, that is a given, BUT it still needs to happen.
          More research. There are very intelligent folks that
          could be working on this. Someone will eventually
          make a break through that could significantly improve
          these models. We can’t stop and say yup, this is the best we can do. Good enough.

          I once worked with a man whose name was
          Ralph Donaldson. He was not a meteorologist, but
          rather a PHD atmospheric physicist. He was brilliant.

          Atmospheric physics is a branch of meteorology and is related to climatology. Atmospheric physicists use mathematical and physical models to study and understand Earth’s atmosphere and its weather systems. For example, they apply the theory of fluid dynamics to atmospheric tides.

          They need a team of both Highly trained and skilled atmospheric physicists, meteorologists and mathematicians to be constantly working this problem.

          It CAN be improved.

          2. I agree it needs to be improved. However, I also agree with TK that it is easier said than done. But there is a third aspect….I think this is a really good indication of why there needs to be less criticism of mets who have to decipher what is far from perfect.

            1. Vicki, I agree and I disagree.

              IF a met hugs a model and takes the model output verbatim as the forecast, then that met should be open to criticism. If, however, said Met reviews all of the model output and uses applied meteorology and experience to formulate the forecast, then yes, that met should be cut some slack.

              IMHO, there is a HUGE difference. 😀

      1. Yup, you surely called that one, however, it looks to be
        regaining strength, at least to a degree. How much? We shall see later.

    1. Yes, but at that hour, NO RAIN into ANY of SNE.
      Where it goes from there is the question. Looking at the 300 mb chart
      (I don’t have access to 200MB), it looks like it would be “possible” for
      it to move more Northward and at least graze Eastern SNE with Rain.
      Not big wind, but some rain. It is also possible it moved NE or ENE
      harmlessly well out to sea.

      We shall see what the 12Z run does with it.

  107. 6z GFS does the loop but when making loop toward Bahamas a weaker system than the 0z GFS and when it get to around Miami and the Keys its moves east instead of northeast where the 0z GFS run had a system with an expanding wind field offshore with wind gusts getting into SNE.

    1. Right now, it is looking that way, however, one caveat.
      Listen to what SAK was saying. This morning’s runs will have the benefit
      of the trough that was off shore of the West coast, now being on shore
      and better sampled. It “could” change things a tad.

      We shall see.

  110. Greetings to one and all this fine brisk morning. As far as knowing where a Hurricane will be going I read, maybe here, that they create their own weather when so big and go wherever they want if their is no bigger influence on the system. I hope it stays off shore for everyone’s sake but gets us some rain. Be well!

  111. TK – hope your Mom feels better soon!! I will try my hand and returning some positive mojo.
    I think my friend’s late husband was an atmospheric physicist or something close… he taught at MIT and I believe was a pioneer in the field of global warming – his name was Reginald Newell. His son Oliver – who sadly also passed away – worked at Lincoln Labs and I think worked on radar technology. Amazingly intelligent family!

    1. Awesome. Don’t recognize that name, but anyone associated with
      Lincoln Labs is typically brilliant. I once interviewed for a position there, but
      sadly I didn’t get the job. I guess I was not brilliant enough. Of course I was
      applying for a Fortran Programming position and I only had limited
      exposure to Fortran at the time (Am I dating myself?)

      I did however, have a position with Air Force Cambridge Research Labs and was stationed at their weather radar site on the Army Labs Annex which sits on Maynard, Stowe and Sudbury. The office was on top of a hill and the staff
      were pioneers in dealing with radars for meteorological applications. They had one of the 1st dopplar radars used for tracking severe weather. The
      research they were doing was amazing. I loved it.

    2. Meant to mention, I saw Connor on the channel 4 news last night.

      Quite a guy. I hope all works out well for them down there.

  112. 12Z NAM is coming out.

    Nam insists on Matthew staying OFF SHORE of Florida and keepin heaviest
    winds in both Eastern quadrants. Spares Florida other than some heavy rain.

    Now we know the NAM is not a decent hurricane model, but this is through hour 45, which is in its range, so “manybe”, just “maybe” it is close to correct.

    We shall see.

    Waiting for the rest of the run and the other 12Z runs.

  113. Fate is playing into my hands today…

    1) I had to delay the update due to Mom’s care.
    2) I can’t use my WHW account until mid afternoon.

    The second point means I’ll have time to review all 12z data before putting the new update together.

    In the mean time I can use this name desktop and my WHW account mobile to check in on occasion.

      1. She’s up and about, taking it very slow.
        The most important thing is keeping her hydrated. This is a stomach bug and for a while she wasn’t even able to keep plain water down. But now she can, and had a light breakfast. So she’s heading in the right direction.

    1. Actually, I don’t think it quite makes landfall as it starts turning up
      the coast, “just” off shore.

  116. Cuba weaknened Matthew more than forecast, a good call by TK. However, the core of the storm is intact, and it’s already looking better. Should reintensify to a category 4 or possibly a 5 under ideal conditions over the next 48 hours. A very close call for the southeast US, although I like the latest trends keeping it just offshore of Florida and the Carolinas. Let’s face it, no one saw this kind of shift in guidance coming. Really not sure what to think beyond 2-3 days out.

  118. Winds up to 120 mph with 11am advisory.
    Hopefully the center stays offshore but with that said still going to be impacts.

  121. 12Z GFS is rolling. SO far up to hour 33, it keeps it “just” off shore of Florida.
    Watching it as it comes out.

    2. Nice link. How do you find these things?

      Matthew is surely looking better.

      http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/14L/imagery/rb_lalo-animated.gif

      Yet, eye doesn’t look good in this loop, however, there seems to be a blow up
      in convection and the CDO Looks awesome (The central dense overcast of a tropical cyclone or strong subtropical cyclone is the large central area of thunderstorms surrounding its circulation center, caused by the formation of its eyewall. It can be round, angular, oval, or irregular in shape.).

    1. Way worse than a direct hit over a targeted area imo. The whole coast getting raked like that. Not good.

  129. I suspect our new family member, steamroller, is incredibly busy with preparations. But if a second permits (and I sure understand why it would not), would love to hear what the powers that be are reporting and suggesting in FL. Whether you respond or not, please know our thoughts are with you all as well as our other neighbors to the south.

  132. 2 questions I have ….

    I wonder if the storm might be mostly “right-sided” by the time it parallels the Florida coastline, with most of the rain and wind to the center or east of the storm.

    I still worry about surge even if the eye stays offshore, because in theory, the wind should be SE then E then NE for a while at the coastline as the center moves northward. That should give it a chance to pile up the water.

    My brother-in-law is in Wilmington, NC. His house is on a peninsula with the ocean to the east and an inlet tidal river to the west (at the end of his yard)

    I told him that I think it could even be partly cloudy and not tremendously windy, but that he should still get to higher ground in another 24 hrs because I think the ocean will rise even up there, at least a couple feet. He said he was going to, that all the locals were moving to higher ground. (Their street fills with a few feet of water once a month during the full moon tides)

    1. Very nice write-up and thank you. Pretty much sums up what we have been
      discussing here.

      I am absolutely dying to see what the 12Z Euro has to say and it is unfolding now. 😀

    2. Exceptional and honest and straightforward explanation.

      I have copied and sent to my daughter who, as I’ve said, has tickets to depart here Sunday for Florida (Naples so west coast but still….)

    1. I wonder if there might be some wind surprises to the north of Matthew, maybe even substantially north. That’s a projected 70mb difference, from a 954 mb hurricane to a 1026 mb high. It does probably help that they are substantially apart, but still.

      1. Dad lives not far from Dow road, off Alabama.
        He’s not going anywhere. That’s pretty high ground where he is. He has a metal roof, hurricane shutters, and a whole house generator. He rode out Floyd, Bonnie, and Bertha right there. He lived up at Monkey Junction during Fran.

  142. From Ryan Maue
    ECMWF 12z is a disaster — Nassau Bahamas Cat 4-5 wind gusts possible. Coastal Florida hurricane conditions well inland. Cat 4 Landfall.

  144. On the Euro, Matthew is a bit too slow and allows for the trough to pass to the North
    and then Matthew responds to a building SE ridge and VIOLA, he moves to
    the Southeast. Plain and simple, nothing mysterious about it at all.

    Here are some developing 300 MB frames to illustrate this.

    http://imgur.com/a/XDmNJ

  145. Question please. I know the greatest impact would be on the east side of FL. However, daughter now wondering if it makes sense to think about canceling trip or postponing if it might be a nightmare getting into FL. She is not sure of what airport they fly into but thinks it is only 30 minutes from Naples so would assume also on west side.

    1. You should double check with TK and SAK, but for me, UNLESS
      something changes drastically, I don’t see any major impact for any area
      near Naples. The major problems would be along the East coast of Florida.
      Looking at the Euro, at worst some rain and wind gusts briefly into the 30s
      and this would be 2AM to 8 AM on Friday with conditions lessening after that.
      Also, not much happening until very late Thursday.

      Not sure when the flight would be coming in, but that is my take.

      Personally, I wouldn’t cancel a thing, but that is I and I might be a tad
      more daring that most.

      1. Thank you, Dave. That makes sense. I was thinking it was too far west to have a great impact but then since FL has a different layout was not sure how far inland the effects are.

  146. Not to make light of the serious situation unfolding in the Southeast and Caribbean whatsoever, but watching the 12z GFS unfold at noontime was like playing Pac-Man. It looks like Matthew and Nicole were running around chasing each other, much like Blinky and Pinky.

    Does the fact that these two storms are occurring in the second week of October, very late in the tropical season, make them more unpredictable and harder to forecast?

    TK, hope mom is feeling a lot better.

    Prayers and concern for the Haitians, Cubans, and all in the Bahamas and in the USA in the path of the storm.

    1. I don’t think it has anything to do with it being October. It has more to do with 3 things:

      1. Having the Nicole around certainly muddies the water.
      2. As Tk alluded to earlier, Mathew took longer than expected to pass over Cuba.
      This delay messed with the timing of the upstream trough. In short,
      matthew missed the bus to SNE. Ie by the time Matthew gets into a position
      where it would have been picked up by the trough moving Eastward(to send
      it NEwrd towards SNE), it will have been gone already and Matthew instead
      is met by a ridge which propels him SouthEastward towards the Bahamas.
      3. The upstream trough was never as sharp as originally forecast.

      Put all that together and it spells no Matthew up here. This still could have
      happened in August or September imho, If wrong, I WILL be corrected
      by TK, SAK and/or JMA. 😀

      1. It can happen any time, depending on the complete pattern. It’s more complex than most folks realize.

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