Wednesday Forecast

40 Comments

3:58PM

A lot changed in the last 24 hours, especially regarding the future of Hurricane Matthew. We knew this was possible and had been cautioning it. I first dismissed a run of a model that decided Matthew was more likely to do an anticyclonic loop off the US Southeast Coast instead of heading northeastward after its close pass to or just onto the coasts of Florida and/or the Carolinas. Now there is more evidence that this loop will take place, and the ultimate destiny still appears to be well south of New England, just much later than originally expected. But that’s weather. We forecast it. We update the forecasts. Sometimes we know sooner. Sometimes we can’t know until it’s almost too late to matter. What we do know is that there will be some significant impact on the eastern coast of Florida up through the Carolinas in the next few days, regardless if the center comes ashore or not. More about Matthew below and expanded thoughts will follow in the comments while this post is up and of course with the updated post tomorrow. And my apologies for the very late post today!

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 5-9)…
High pressure will control the weather through early Saturday with fair weather and a warming trend. Now that Matthew is not in the picture through the weekend, all we can expect is some showers Saturday night and Sunday morning with the passage of a cold front.
REMAINDER OF TODAY: Sunshine. Temperatures 58-68, mildest far inland. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 40-45 valleys, 45-52 elsewhere. Wind light E.
THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 65-73, coolest coast. Wind light SE.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 42-47 valleys, 47-54 elsewhere. Wind light variable.
FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 65-72 South Coast, 72-77 elsewhere. Wind light S to SW.
SATURDAY: Sunny start. Cloudy finish. Rain showers at night. Lows 50-58. Highs 68-75.
SUNDAY: Cloudy start. Rain showers morning. Clearing afternoon. Lows 50-58. Highs 58-66.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 10-14)…
At this time with Matthew’s resolution likely taking place well south of this area, we’ll end up with a dry and mild pattern, though it may trend cooler later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 15-19)…
A couple rain shower episodes and variable temperatures, but averaging near to above normal.

40 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  1. Thank you, TK. Please never worry about a late update. There is nothing more important than family.

    Hope your mom is doing better this afternoon.

  2. Thanks TK and everyone who kept the data flowing here in the comments section. We were able to postpone the boat haul, and the weekend weather is looking nice. It’s the last hurrah for the season!

    TK, I hope your Mom is on the mend.

  3. Thanks TK….and I echo Vicki’s comments. Don’t ever apologize for a late update. Family first!!!

  4. Thanks TK. Hope mom is doing better. Family first!

    And regarding Matthew, I agree 100%: it’s weather, it’s not a perfect science. Sometimes there are just too many moving parts for us to get it right until it’s actually happening, especially where hurricanes are concerned. We’ll move on.

  5. Thank you TK and NEVER do you have to apologize for a late post, Most especially
    when you are dealing with family matters.

    re: Matthew
    It has been fun and interesting, if not somewhat frustrating.

    If nothing else, it has hammered home the concept of timing, which was mentioned
    time and time again early on. You cautioned that timing would have a huge impact
    on when/where Matthew would go. Frankly, I find it truly fascinating.

    Thank you for your expert guidance through all of this.

  7. Thanks TK. I hope your mother starts feeling better soon! Love the new pumpkin background color too 🙂

    1. I had to play with the color scale a bit but I guess it worked out pretty well. It was indeed meant to be pumpkin colored. I apologize that I do not possess the technology to make the blog pumpkin spice flavored though. But we probably have enough of that around everywhere anyway. 😛

  8. Thanks everyone!

    Mom is steadily improving this afternoon. She’s up and about, eating light meals. It was a stomach virus that hit her particularly hard. She is in her mid 80s so no real surprise. But she’s a tough cookie, even if only just under 5 feet tall now. 😉

    Today is trash/recycle pickup day in my section of Woburn and I had told my mom (as you probably know, we live above her in a 2-family house) to leave the stuff alone when they emptied it until I got home (around 2:30PM). I drive in, and the barrels and bins are nowhere to be found. But she was ready with her excuses…

    Barrel: They left it right behind a truck that had parked out there, and my uncle was due for a visit, so she went out and moved it so he wouldn’t “get nervous” trying to park.

    Bins: They were collected while my uncle was here, and when they looked out, the bins were nowhere to be seen. So they went out to check when my uncle was leaving. Turns out they left both bins right in the middle of the street. Dumb move. For the amount of money these people get paid, you’d think they could at least put the bins back reasonably close to if not on the sidewalk. Grr!

  9. 18Z NAM would keep Matthew OFF shore of FLorida.

    Heads off shore along the coast up towards Georgia. Out to 54 hours so far.

    1. I just keep sighing as I suspect many others are doing.

      To have a system of this magnitude sitting on the doorstep of so many people who live along the coasts and not having a true handle on what will happen until it happens is scary. I agree with you, Dave. With all of our knowledge, how do we not have something better?

      What makes it worse is that people blame the meteorologists without understanding the intense frustration they have gone through trying to give the public the very best information possible.

      1. Well said. Very frustrating. It is further complicated because there is almost too much information. So many model with so many different solutions.

        1. Awww darn – TK don’t bother approving that comment. You’ll see why. I was just trying something!!

          Anyway.

          Dave, this was what the comment said that is now awaiting moderation.

          Too much information. Interesting but makes perfect sense.

    1. Ugh – that city can flood with very little rain. Is it one of the most vulnerable cities on the east coast for flooding??

  11. At about hour 78, the NAM abruptly pushes Matthew to the East. It looks like
    the NAM will join in on the LOOP as well, but a Bit later after menacing the coasts
    of Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina. Hmmm Did I see that on this blog somewhere above? me thinks I did. 😀

  12. the 12Z 60KM FIm takes matthew off shore to off shore of SC, then moves South
    all the way to Cuba again (in a super weak form).

  14. Thanks TK! No apologies necessary. Hope your mother continues to recover. Keep us posted. 🙂

  15. Major burst of convection wrapping nicely around the center. Let’s see what the pressure is in a couple hours.

  16. TK, glad to hear your mother is on the mend. Stomach viruses are the worst. Usually short-lived, but they knock the stuffing out of people, young and old.

    1. I keep thinking about Joshua’s post the other day. I tried to respond a couple of times but couldn’t find the words. You helped me figure it out, John. Thanks.

      I think when we are blessed it is easy to sometimes forget to truly appreciate it. So for us tomorrow may be really nice. I suspect reaching out …even if it is no more than a simple prayer..to those who might not waken to as nice a day would make tomorrow even better than its promise…for everyone.

  23. The satellite presentation the last 2 hrs sure makes it look like it’s headed into a strengthening phase.

    1. Yes I agree with you! The eye wall is also redeveloping! So I’m surprised the pressure hasn’t dropped more! I believe by the 5:00 Am report this will have strengthened to 125 with pressures around 956. We will see

  24. Hi all! Thanks for all the well wishes. We are all prepared for the main event! The storm track continues to shift to the west! As of right now it looks as though it will be very close to a landfall around vero beach on the treasure coast. So for now with that track it will be north of us. However a slight jog further west it could hit in southern Palm Beach County! The waiting game is now on! Also some of the better computer models are having this loop around and head back to Florida! Let’s get through this first! Talk to everyone soon!

    1. Stay safe. Our thoughts and prayers are with you and with everyone along the coast of Florida, George, South Carolina and North Carolina.

  25. Still holding out hope that the core of strongest winds and heaviest rain remain just barely offshore for most of if not all of the hurricane’s trip up the FL/GA/Carolina coast. Major impact still, yes. Catastrophic impact, may be avoided if this pans out.

    I’m not even going to deal with what happens after this just yet. We know a turn to the east happens, but after that is still up in the air.

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