Thursday Forecast

166 Comments

7:30AM

HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION…
My concern was the slow movement changing the game since it became apparent that the hurricane would be left behind by what could have moved it a lot more quickly to a position southeast of New England. And even though it remains to be seen if the hurricane does a complete loop after this run at (or along) the coast, it may still end up eventually passing far southeast of New England. The future track carries much uncertainty, so let’s back up and deal with the much more pressing immediate future, and that’s what I will focus on here.

For the last couple days, I have been cautiously optimistic that as dangerous as this hurricane is and will be, that the absolute worst-case scenario may be avoided. How that happens I will explain in a moment, but let me preface that with saying that absolutely everybody along the coast and nearby inland areas of Florida’s eastern coast up through Georgia, South Carolina, and at least southern parts of North Carolina should be prepared for the worst. Nature has the final say, so be ready, just in case.

I still feel that there is a chance that the core of Matthew may remain JUST offshore for much of, if not all of its trip by FL, GA, SC, and NC. That does not mean a total escape by any means. We’re still going to see powerful and damaging winds especially just ahead of the closest approach of the center, along with storm surge and very heavy surf. But if the center of the storm is just offshore, the core of strongest sustained winds, just northeast and east of the center, will remain over water. That would be good news. Also, rainfall amounts of 3-6 inches and locally 6-10 inches would be common, but the core of 10+ inch rains would also remain just offshore. Since the hurricane is still a warm core system and not transitioning, we will not yet see the heaviest rain set up west of the center, as it would during a transition to post-tropical. That would also be good news for Florida and probably Georgia. The worst flooding may occur in eastern South Carolina and southeastern North Carolina due to the angle of the coast and the already saturated ground due to a very wet September and recent heavy rainfall. Another point I wanted to make is that the center being just offshore would not necessarily mean it would continue to strengthen. Nearly half of the circulation would be over land and that would at least keep the intensity somewhat steady but may initiate some slow weakening.

I realize that only a matter of tens of miles will change my forecast scenario to a worst-case. Such a fine line here. Let’s hope for the best for all of the people there. Will update thoughts in the comments below. Now on to the southern New England weather below…

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 6-10)…
High pressure will control the weather through early Saturday with fair weather and a warming trend. Now that Matthew is not in the picture through the weekend, all we can expect is some The only unsettled weather in the forecast through the holiday weekend are some rain showers Saturday night and Sunday morning with the passage of a cold front.
TODAY: Sunny. Highs 65-73, coolest coast. Wind light SE.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 42-47 valleys, 47-54 elsewhere. Wind light variable.
FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 65-72 South Coast, 72-77 elsewhere. Wind light S to SW.
SATURDAY: Sunny start. Cloudy finish. Rain showers at night. Lows 50-58. Highs 68-75.
SUNDAY: Cloudy start. Rain showers early. Mostly sunny midday and afternoon. Breezy. Lows 50-58. Highs 58-66.
MONDAY – COLUMBUS DAY: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Lows 38-45. Highs 58-65.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 11-15)…
Mainly dry and a warm up to start the period. A few mid period rain showers then fair and a little cooler to end the period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 16-20)…
A couple rain shower episodes and variable temperatures, but averaging near to above normal.

166 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  2. http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_map.php?inv=0&t=cur&region=se

    To add to your thought TK, look at the continental airmass sitting not too far inland in the southeast.

    Sure, there are upper 70 dewpoints in Florida, but mid 50 dewpoints not too far away, relatively speaking in the southeast and low 60s along the coastline in the Carolinas.

    Hopefully, some of that cooler, drier air will become entrained on the western side of the circulation.

  4. Thank you, TK. Exceptional analysis.

    If he rides the coast only miles off shore (assuming that means the eye), what are winds likely to be (very roughly). I understand the wind is on the east side and assume as it rides north it will lose some strength (that assumption may be incorrect).

    In so many of those areas (especially SC as you have said), water can be far more devastating than wind. Even if it is to a lesser degree, it seems horrific to have it literally ride along four states.

  7. Thanks TK!

    I was going to ask what happens after the loop and lo and behold you answered in your discussion above. Thanks again! 😀

    It will be very interesting as to what the upper level winds will be later next week.

  9. Thank you, TK.

    This is still a very powerful storm with the potential for extensive damage to lives and property along our southeastern coast. I hope that Matthew exhausts himself and stays off shore.

  10. Interesting that the SPC has no Tornado wording at all for today in Florida.
    I presume that is because the main tornado active area of the hurricane will
    remain off shore and won’t come on shore to cause those spin ups.

  14. My thoughts and prayers are for those affected and will be affected by the storm. These storms have a mind of their own and we do our best to predict what they will do. It is a beautiful fall day today – but as someone(or many) posted, there are those that are not having a beautiful fall day. Here’s hoping they get through this storm safely.

    1. Good thoughts. I wonder how Steamroller is doing and preparing for this.

      Steamroller will feel the effects of this storm for certain, however, the worst
      of it “appears” to be destined for North of that area. Of course, these things
      have a mind of their own, so we have to continually monitor it.

    1. I canceled our vacation next week. They are going to need some time to recover. I heard the worst was on the west side at the airport. Atlantis is holding visitors in the casino. I hope downtown and Paradise Island fare a bit better, but it’s still a small island…

  17. I haven’t looked at every single post lately – so sorry if this loop has been posted recently.

    http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-vis.html

    I know it’s not going to happen – but Matthew almost looks like it’s going to go straight west. Wouldn’t it be weird if it were to stay on a westward motion and go into the gulf. I know that won’t happen. In any case, I like the loop because it shows 2 tropical storms spinning in the Atlantic not far from each other. Impressive – but certainly not good.

      1. Ok, I tend to look at the eye of the storm and it seemed to move straight west. I probably should be looking at the storm as a whole. Thanks.

  22. Tweets from Eric Fisher:

    Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 14m14 minutes ago
    Pressure is still falling down through the 930s. What happens between Andros & Florida will be crucial in terms of strength & track wobbles.

    Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 19m19 minutes ago
    Inner core of #Matthew still hasn’t been able to completely close off. It will have a shot after Andros and before Florida.

  23. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/14L/imagery/jsl-animated.gif

    Re : storm surge ….

    The momentum of the movement of the storm concerns me.

    With a pressure in the 930s, I’m guessing out in the open ocean, there is perhaps a 1 to 2 foot rise of the ocean under the eye. It is gathering momentum in its movement towards the northwest. As that 1 to 2 foot mound of water encounters the shallower depth waters near shore, its going to rise to a storm surge of multiple feet.

    I think even though Matthew will be turning towards the NNW and then the N, the momentum of the surge is going to take it right into shore, even if the surface winds are northerly.

    And unlike a storm moving perpendicularly into the coastline, hitting a smaller area intensely, this is going to be a much larger stretch of coastline impacted significantly.

    2. Life-Threatening Storm Surge, Battering Waves, Major Beach Erosion

      Major, damaging storm surge flooding is expected as Matthew curls its way northward along the Southeast coast. If you live along the immediate coast and are told to evacuate, please do so.

      Here is how high the water could reach during this life-threatening inundation if the peak surge coincides with high tide, according to the National Hurricane Center:

      https://dsx.weather.com//util/image/w/thu-am-surge.jpg?v=ap&w=980&h=551&api=7db9fe61-7414-47b5-9871-e17d87b8b6a0

    3. Exactly what I said to daughter this am but with a far less technical view and just common sense. I pray this does not create the devastation that it appears it could. Four coastlines. Aid to one is difficult enough. I pray I am not seeing things correctly as well

  25. It now appears that Matthew will stay “just’ North of Andros island, keeping
    it over water until it strikes Florida.

  26. I know everyone’s attention is on Matthew (as it should be), but closer to home we are enjoying a couple of beautiful early fall days. Today and tomorrow are about as good as it gets around here this time of year 8)

    1. I was just thinking as I walked from one our buildings to the other. In fact it maybe just about perfect!!

  28. Thanks TK. This is potentially a nightmare scenario for the Kennedy Space Center. I visited it back in August and the tour guide noted how they have been relatively spared from a major hurricane. That doesn’t appear to be the case this time. The vehicle assembly building was built to only withstand 125 mph winds.

    1. Right, now we’ll trust it. 😀

      4KM NAM MUCH closer to coast and even briefly makes landfall around
      Cape Kennedy.

  34. Looking at Miami radar, the eye of Matthew stayed over water as it is about to pass
    by Andros Island. Did NOT pass over the Island. Bad news for Florida.

  35. Arctic is about 10 to as much as 30 degrees above normal in terms of temperature. Models and long term models through the month continues to keep the arctic well above normal.
    Looking at siberia. temperatures above normal, Long term (month) looks to increase the snow cover ( not sure exactly what part should be looked at but through most of siberia, models show an increase

  36. I’m banking on the HRRR over playing the friction between the land and the western flank of the eyewall/core. This may be causing an erroneous forecast of a wobble to the left.

    1. Just did a really close compare. I’d say with this run, it is off by about
      10 miles or so. Not too bad.

  40. NWS point and click forecast for Cape Canaveral for tomorrow, yikes!

    Hurricane conditions expected. Periods of showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce gusty winds and heavy rain. High near 83. North wind 95 to 115 mph becoming west southwest 60 to 80 mph. Winds could gust as high as 145 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

  41. Did a compare for NOON position of Matthew as depicted on the 15Z HRRR vs actual radar and it is STILL OFF. More with the Noon than 11AM. Something in the order
    of what TK said, about 30 miles or so.

    You would think the HRRR could do a tad better than that.

  44. Matthew has classic concentric eye walls. A small, intense inner one, a “moat” outside of it, and a very large outer eyewall.

        1. I’m going to guess and heaven help anyone who pays attention…Eyewall Replacement C…………….. something 🙂

    1. Last link – His comment that it would almost be better for it to hit one area rather than ride the coast is what I have been thinking

      Thank you, Keith.

  48. ERC = eyewall replacement cycle. One of the things I was hoping might take place at just the right time. Tighten it / shrink the core, keep the worst offshore. It might even turn itself a bit to the right during this time.

    2. Thanks TK and nice try Vicki as you got two thirds of that, which is 2/3rds more than I could come up with! 🙂

  51. *** Attention Kane if you are reading ***
    I just noticed a couple of your messages went to moderation. May have been a change in email? Not sure. But you are re-approved. Sorry for not catching that sooner!

  60. Thank you, TK and all, for the wonderful blog and comments. I’m always lurking but felt the need to comment now. My grandmother lives in Cocoa Beach seasonally — she evacuated first north, then west and is very worried she won’t have a condo to return to when this hurricane is finally over.

    It’s a fascinating and rather beautiful storm to watch on radar. Fingers crossed for an easterly track!

  61. We are all prepared and watching the updates! It looks to be staying offshore and heading up north! We will get into some brief hurricane winds but it’s going to be close!! Will keep you posted! Thanks for all the well wishes!

  64. I saw a banner come up on the Weather Channel just now that said:
    A Storm Like We’ve Never Seen
    *eyeroll*

    1. It’s a serious storm, yes.
      Like we’ve never seen? So over done.
      I’m sorry, but TWC , which once upon a time was great, just totally sucks. It’s sad. What a waste of a perfect platform.

      1. Technically, we really never have seen a storm of this strength take this track. But that’s true for just about any storm of any strength. So I agree it’s an alarmist headline. Thing is, it’s not the “real” meteorologists who come up with those banners. Same with their website. I have them on this evening, because the live coverage is actually quite good, and in general the quality of their programming is up big over the past couple years. Problem is, as you two realize, someone lacking our background knowledge could easily be led astray by focusing on the banners over the presenters. Which is why outside of when there actually is a potentially catastrophic event unfolding (99.9% of the time), I don’t tune in, because they’ll still try to hype up any totally normal event.

  65. Matthew has turned west right before it could landfall near Freeport. Even a SW wobble going on right now.

      1. If it doesn’t make landfall in Florida, it probably never will anywhere, at least as a hurricane and on this pass.

  69. Everything about Matthew has just been textbook major hurricanes. Eyewall cycles, changes in structure, modest fluctuations in intensity, but all the while remaining an extremely powerful storm. We see such a limited number of storms like this in the Atlantic, especially lately, it’s been a special one to track. Very sad, of course, from a human perspective, and Matthew is a name we will never use operationally again after this season.

  71. Hi from Charlotte! All of our hotels are sold out here from Matthew refugees. Brother and sister-in-law stayed in Jacksonville (about 30 miles inland) to ride out the storm. Thinking positive thoughts!

    2. Sending positive thoughts. Glad folks are heading the evacuation. Although, for the most part I think they do in that area. I remember the damage Hugo did in Charlotte…although I know Matthew is a completely different storm

      1. To be honest, when this is all done, Hugo will end up being the more damaging storm, at least in terms of intensity.

        Current dollars, maybe not, but we’ll see.

        1. Hugo travelled so far inland that it made a mess of Charlotte. When we drove down to that area even years later we could see the path it cut across highways and land. Even coming close to Hugo would be devastating.

          1. Hugo was moving along like an express train. Matthew is completely different. Much slower and will be curving away.

  72. It might be a text book storm, but it is the first time in recorded history in which a hurricane took the type of track up the east coast of florida

  74. I can’t find any outrageous winds anywhere in Florida. West Palm comes in the highest
    at 45 mph in gusts.

    1. They’re on the weaker side and probably will be the entire time unless the thing turns more to the west and stays that way.

      1. Yes, I understand. Plus, the storm may be powerful, but it
        is not as expansive as some I have seen. The hurricane force
        winds don’t come out as far from the center as they could. Of course anyone in that area is in trouble.

  75. I am sure watching this closely. I have seven family members living in two houses across the street from each other in Satellite Beach, FL. This is just a few miles from Melbourne, and even further east.

    The good news is that they are all safely evacuated.

  76. So far, watching the radar, it “appears” to be pretty much following the NAM trajectory.
    Let’s hope it stays that way. We shall see.

    1. And who said you can’t forecast hurricane with the NAM? Unless of course we
      are within 12 hours. 😀 😀 😀

  77. Current RAP and HRRR still want to make landfall, but now not until it
    reaches “about” The Kennedy Space Center. That area could get clobbered. Let’s
    hope it stays seaward.

    1. I worry about the entire coast but even more about rain and storm surge as it gets to low country. Perhaps I am wrong.

  80. Matthew might be on another wobble or jog, but it has taken a clear turn to the NE. 😀

    Baseball time!

    1. These are all track wobbles.

      I know the media wants you to think otherwise, but there is really nothing extraordinarily unusual about this hurricane. It’s a dangerous storm, the impact of which will depend on your location. We know how that works and from there it should be just about facts only.

  81. Tybee Island, Georgia for summer vacation with the kids is like one of our favorite places. Concerned that it might not exist in its present state if the ocean ends up where it might. Bummer.

      1. Either the “TBS Strike Zone” software needs some work or the ump is giving Cleveland a big strike zone!!

  84. Sox can easily come back. But:

    a. They limped into the post-season (which hurt them because they now have to start on the road)

    b. Porcello and Price have been sub-par in the post-season

    c. Don’t want to wait with scoring until the later innings because the Indians have an excellent bullpen

    1. Limped…yes after winning 11 in a row (most of those on the road) and having an excellent September (once again most of it on the road).

      Price…yes poor post season record…Porcello yes but a smaller sampling.

      Cleveland bullpen…agreed

      1. I stand corrected on the “limped” part. Their 11 in a row was remarkable. However, I wish they had won a couple more games the final week of the season. They looked a little tired and out of sync last week.

        1. I wasn’t correcting you…if anything I was trying to point out (poorly) that after 11 in a row they not only limped home but kind of mailed it in.

    1. True. And in divisional series the Sox came back against Cleveland (1999) and Oakland (2003) down 2-0. These almost forgotten series were some of the most memorable in Sox history.

  87. Nicole now Cat 2 with 105 mph winds, while Matthew is still at 130. Good call TK with it staying off the coast so far.

  88. It appears that the Red Sox will return to Fenway at 1-1 or 0-2. They seem to have a knack of coming back from 0-2 deficits in past years but it is a bad habit IMHO.

    It would be a shame for Big Papi’s sake not to see him at Fenway for at least 2 more games in his career finale. Hopefully they can tie up things tonight.

  89. I made the attempt to watch TWC for 15 minutes for the first time in a long time.

    Let’s be honest, they are one horrible media outlet. They do not know how to communicate, at all. Most of what they say is hyped up bullcrap and very misleading. And how many times do they need to say we’ve never seen a storm track like this? Why, because it’s just off the coast of Florida. It’s a hurricane, moving NNW. That happens all the damn time. What difference does it make, meteorologically, if it’s near Florida or in the middle of the Atlantic? None. Of course it makes a big difference because it’s near population, but stop trying to say this is unprecedented. It is NOT. And there have been past tropical storms and hurricanes that have taken a very similar track.

    I’ve had people contacting me today from places like southwestern Florida, and the Panhandle, telling me that TWC told them that FL was going to be devastated by a category 4 hurricane. Really? The entire state? Something is seriously wrong with not only TWC but the vast majority of media when it becomes more about the dramatic wording than the actual facts about what’s going on. Sad.

    1. They are simply an unwatchable, contrived, reckless, pathetic, agenda-ridden, perfect representation of how the modern day media communicates today. And we eat it up. Not even visible evidence to the contrary will get in their way. I put them on for the first time last night in probably over five years. What a mistake. The minute I saw the “reporter”, on Vero beach I think it was, with the parka already on over his head, giving himself probably a self-inflicting neck injury by unnaturally forcing himself into a defensive pose into what we would normally refer to as a seabreeze, I turned the channel. Shame on me. I will NEVER, EVER turn that channel on again. In fact, I should cancel my cable package altogether so I don’t even scan by it in the guide.

  91. TWC tropical dude is like beside himself with disappointment that the dominant ring of strongest winds is currently missing Jim Cantore’s location.

    This is better than The Comedy Channel.

  92. SAK this is so bad.

    Paraphrasing: “We’re seeing a weakening but it’s likely just a temporary weakening. This is an expanding hurricane. This is a reorganizing hurricane. Don’t be fooled by this weakening.”

    Let’s try this: The hurricane is weakening slightly because almost half of its circulation is over land AND it’s pulling some dry air into itself from the the northwest and west. Funny how that happens.

    1. I was talking about that with my son yesterday morning how that would happen with this storm. The whole dry air thing. And I have no idea what I’m talking about in relation. As the media and NWS bar gets lower, my qualifications get better. I might be qualified for media weather in the end after all. And without the tuition. Sweet.

  93. I’m all worked up this morning now TK. LOL.

    And one more thing!

    If the moderator and/or Clinton doesn’t slip global warming or climate change into the next debate over this, I’ll eat this laptop I’m typing on.

    1. From left to right, 3rd column gives the wind.

      Far right, look at some of the 1 hr rain totals.

      Checking tide gauges, seeing about a 3 to 3.5 ft storm surge north of the center. I couldn’t find a tide guage for cape canaveral nearest the center.

  95. TK has done it again!!! great call on matthew staying off shore. Awesome.

    re: weather channle. I do NOT watch forr all that was stated above. Did not put it on last night not even for 1 second.

    re:sox
    Porcello had a rare off night. Hope Price steps up,

    Re: umps
    They were inept!! totally. They blew chuncks!
    Home plate ump was the worst I have ever seen.! he had a brutal strike zone. brutal.
    he missed every other pitch.

  96. New post! Short one, still catching up on a few things here.

    More in the comment section during the day today!

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