64 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

1. Thanks as always TK!

   No wx woes for us anytime soon, that’s for sure. 🙂

2. Thanks TK!

3. Thank you, TK.

   So far your belief that Matthew would stay just enough off shore has verified……and that is never a surprise. I know that the noon to one hour is critical as it moves forward. Do you believe the storm surge will be more worrisome on the GA coast than when it reaches SC lowcountry?

   1. GA worries me a bit more.

      1. I saw that their surge would be a lot greater than SC. I am not familiar with their elevation. Are they same level as SC or higher? In SC, the elevation as you know makes a small surge similar to other area with a larger surge…..or even rain amounts which again I believe should be less on SC than GA.

         1. Will expand on this this afternoon.

4. Thank you TK.

5. Thanks TK and kudos to you once again!

6. Thought I would share an update from Conor in Haiti that I just received regarding conditions on the ground in Les Cayes – which was one of the hardest hit areas-

   “Lynn, Miliane Dickens and I are safe and sound in Les Cayes. Extremely troubling to see the destruction on the road, crops destroyed and houses coming down hillsides. However in addition to these problems our main concern now is for those outside of Les Cayes. Jeremie, Dam Marie, Les Anglais, Tiburon, etc. No one is hearing much and no one really has contact with these communities. The only contact people have had with them paints an extremely dire situation (no food, shelter, etc). Will hopefully know more tomorrow as heading out on helicopter early in AM to Dame Marie and trying to get additional helicopter ride through usaid. I will let you know as soon as we have info. There is almost no response to the disaster at this point in the hardest hit areas and it feels like in many ways they have been forgotten.

   St. Boniface Hospital is completely operational and we passed through the Ti Goave bridge collapse without a problem. Main issue is that no large trucks can pass and this will be a major supply chain issue (equipment, food, etc) if not fixed quickly.

   Thank you all so much for your remarkable support and hard work. We have an incredible team at SBHF (staff in FdB, staff in Newton, Board, donors, everyone) and now more than ever I feel very fortunate to get to work with all of you. This is brutal but we are making progress.

   Kenbe fem,
   Conor

   Conor Shapiro :: President & CEO
   St. Boniface Haiti Foundation”

   1. Thank you for sharing.

   2. Thank you , best of luck moving forward .

   3. Thank you for sharing. Tragic, tragic situation. Thank God for Conor and the others who are there for help and support.

7. TK, I hear what your saying and understand certain tv stations possibly overplaying things… But the storm surge to come might be very bad in Jacksonville and in georgia

   1. I did say they should prep for the worst, but the angle of the storm and the side they are on will probably cut the surge in half compared to the other scenario.

      1. Even if the TV mets had your wisdom, they could not have done less IMO. It was too close and too unpredictable. As far as emergency prep….I think SC outshined but other states followed suit. I understand there is not a hotel available on the west side of FL. I am surprised that folks moved as far inland as Charlotte but that may be because any hotels closer to the coast were already booked.

8. Thanks TK !

9. http://www.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KSGJ.html

   St Augustine, FL hourly obs.

   Wind ramping up a bit the last couple of hours.

10. that storm surge is going to be catastrophic, then again, maybe people will learn that we need Marshland/mangroves etc which absorbs so much of storm surge.

    1. They will not. Many of the oceanfront homes along Isle of Palms just east of Charleston were destroyed by Hugo. It was announced that they would not allow them to rebuild. It was not many years before rebuilding began.

       But then I look at communities such as Humarock which has weathered many catastrophic storms and there it stands. You want to believe it cannot possible survive but somehow it does.

11. I have family in Gainesville, how did Orlando make out . Sox 4:30 I can easily retire I’m enjoying these 3 unexpected days off. To bad I’m only 45 lol.

    1. I have a nephew and family who is in Orlando this week. I think they personally remained at the parks until the last second. Those crazy New Englanders 🙂

12. Matthew still looks pretty healthy and REMAINS off shore.
    It just continues to blow my mind how accurate TK is compared to all of the TV mets.
    Amazing! Keep up the great work TK.

    Here is the Jacksonville Radar

    https://www.wunderground.com/weather-radar/united-states/fl/jacksonville/jax/?region=pie

    1. Agreed….well done TK!!!

    2. No US landfall. And there is slight hope that the surge up the coast may not reach its full potential either. More on that later too.

13. GettingBetter, could you please post a link to your friends organization, I’d like to do something to help. I’m just not sure what’s needed more:money or goods

    1. Excellent and hi Kate!!

14. I too am continually amazed by TK’s accuracy. There is absolutely no reason to watch or listen to anyone else for weather information. He is a national treasure, or at least should be. Thanks for the always great information!

    1. He has unbelievable accuracy! Thanks TK, SAK and others for the continued detailed information you provide us each day.

       1. Could “Woods Hill Weather” just be God’s handle, His cyberspace interface with the world? Are we in fact communicating with God when we post on this blog? I never thought it possible to directly communicate with God. My rabbi told me that direct communication is very rare.

          In all seriousness, TK’s humble, yet bold (outside the box) approach to weather forecasting is otherworldly. With WHW we have metaphysical insights into a physical world. We can tell our friends to ignore the forecasts on TV and radio because we know what’s going to happen. They might ask who told you this, I heard something very different. We respond by saying “TK told us.” “Who’s TK,” they then ask, to which we reply, “he’s our weather God.” As they said in the 60s, that’s far out, man.

          1. It’s funny…I am often telling friends and relatives that the forecast they have is wrong…when they ask me how I know, I always tell them my personal weather blog guy tells me different and he is never wrong…

       2. Scary accurate….I’m thinking if you don’t want to be a met (and who would), perhaps course instruction? Although, I ‘m not sure you can impart the instinct that accompanies your knowledge!

15. TK, well done as usual on your part with an almost impossibly precise, accurate forecast of the exact track off the coast of FL. Very glad they were spared the worst.

    While impacts continue in the US and Matthew remains dangerous, it’s clear now that the storm will be remembered most for its impact in Haiti, where the death toll is tragically high and continues to rise. Such a sad situation there.

16. The TODAY Show this morning had a brief segment on price gouging in parts of Florida. For example, there was this single mother with her two toddlers literally stranded when the Days Inn that they were staying zoomed up their price from $50 to $200 per night and had no choice but to leave. It did have a happy ending as the reporter found them another hotel for them at a much more reasonable rate. Other examples are the usual gas stations (I forget the price per gallon) and bottled water at $30.96 per pack. The segment noted that the AG is investigating. As for the Days Inn national chain, I got the impression that any gouging is not their problem, nothing they can do, etc.

    1. Brings out the worst in some despicable people!

    2. ok, this is going to be politically incorrect but too bad. 🙂

       Price gouging is immoral in my eyes but it does serve a very important economic function and that is to entice and draw in severely needed resources to areas in dire need much quicker than would ordinarily happen including by any mandate government could enact effectively and God knows do efficiently. Doesn’t make it right but thats just a fact of life.

       1. Interesting view. I have this feeling my father in law is agreeing from heaven. I have to think about that. It brings resources but from those who are already struggling…or is that true for the most part. Hmmmm. Interesting indeed

          1. I should have added that my father in law and I rarely agreed on anything but I was always fascinated by his reasoning 🙂

17. Further out on the 12z GFS looks like it wants to bring some pretty cool weather around here the end of next weekend.

18. Savannah news has Matthew by them early morning with a possible 9-11 ft storm surge. I believe that is around high tide. I listened to a met on charleston news and he said potential is now there for eyewall to come really close or over charleston. Wild Dunes on Isle of palms already had the ocean come over its sea wall this morning. Ace, did you play wild dunes a couple of years ago?

    1. I meant to add that I am praying you still see this staying off shore at charleston and all other locations.

19. The sox just look completely flat . They don’t look good . Should we worry, if you have been watching yes indeed .

    1. They’re flat. And I’m really angry at John Farrell. Why? He spent the last 18 hours openly criticizing some of his younger players. They’re “anxious,” “tight,” “too much adrenaline.” Farrell, save your criticism for where it should be directed: At veterans like David Price and Rick Porcello. The former is a way overpaid innings eater who cannot perform in the post-season. Period. He never will. It’s not in his DNA. Porcello had a great season, but is similarly combustible in the post-season, and is also being paid a very hefty sum of cash. His outing was inexcusably bad: 3 straight homers to a team that doesn’t really hit dingers. The fact that Bradley, Bogaerts, and Betts may be a bit overwhelmed by post-season play should not have been Farrell’s priority when he went around spouting his criticism. I do hope he turns his attention to David Price when this game is over. And the media should turn its focus on Dombrowski. Not because he didn’t try. But because he brought in the wrong players: Price, Kimbrel, Pomeranz, Hill. These are not winners. They’re not even that good. I apologize for the rant. I love baseball and fear that our season could be lost.

       1. I don’t care what anybody says there leaving here down 2 games against Cleveland??? Feel bad for Ortiz!!! Oh John it’s not over have patience . It’s embarrassing watching this little league team play both last night and tonight , case closed.

       2. Nice rant.
          Farrell is a bleeping dumb-ass and he is being totally out coached bythw guy we used to have.

20. David Price postseason theme of struggling continues. I did not understand that contract for a guy who can not get it done in the postseason.
    Its amazing I hear a good amount of criticism on Joe Girardi where there are Red Sox fans who would love to have Girardi as their manager. Please anyone feel free to correct me with that but I will ask the question would you take Joe Girardi as your manager why or why not?

    1. Girardi any day of the week over Farrell.

       In terms of GMs, I’ve never been sold on Dombrowski, who’s known to trade away young talent and get little in return. Ziegler is not an especially talented pitcher. Hill is not a talented player. The Pomeranz deal may haunt the Sox, having given up their best prospect for what … junk. Then the David Price deal, which blew my mind then as it does today. He doesn’t shine when it counts. Furthermore, even as a regular season guy he’s not a top 5 starter in the league. Yet, he’s getting paid like one, and then some. I may have disliked the Kimbrel trade the most. Kimbrel’s red flag is that he walks a lot of batters and tends to wilt under pressure. He’s the antidote to, say, Uehara in 2013, or Foulke in 2004, or Papelbon in the late 2000s.

       1. Nice rant.
          Farrell is a bleeping dumb-ass and he is being totally out coached bythw guy we used to have.

       2. Agree agree. Price sucks. There’s no nice way to put it.
          Porcello has been awesome, too bad he chose last night to implode. Price’s performance was totally expected.

21. Kate – thanks so much for asking about ways to help in Haiti – I think the most beneficial is always cash donations. I work with and have served on the board of many non profits and SBHF is the most fiscally transparent and financially responsible one I have ever seen. 89 percent of donations go directly to the ground – 9th year Charity Navigator 4 star – which is given to less than 1 percent of charities each year.

    You can donate at http://www.haitihealth.org/hurricane. And THANK YOU.

    I spent the day volunteering at their Newton office and was just texting with Conor – he said the devastation is as bad as after the earthquake in 2010 – total wasteland- but without the aid or international attention. Just heartbreaking. He knows you guys are rooting for them here – he texted me to get this blogs thoughts on the storm Sunday as you may recall – and he really appreciates your support, thoughts and prayers. As do I. You guys are great.

    1. Thank you. Took several tries. iPad was trying to spell the verification words. The reports from Haiti break my heart. God bless you all for what you are doing to help

       1. Thanks Vicki! It may not work but if it does here’s a link to an interview with Conor a few hours ago from Les Cayes – http://www.cbc.ca/radio/popup/audio/listen.html?autoPlay=true&clipIds=&mediaIds=2695976683&contentarea=radio&subsection1=radio1&subsection2=currentaffairs&subsection3=as_it_happens&contenttype=audio&title=2016/10/07/1.3796106-haiti-town-like-a-wasteland-after-hurricane-matthew-&contentid=1.3796106.

          The world doesn’t know yet how bad it is in Haiti.

          1. On my mobile, it froze on loading.

          2. Loaded fine on iPad. Makes me cry

             Getting Better…if TK has a second to send you my email, maybe you could send wording and I will share with friends and also on FB. I don’t know if it will generate donations but may be worth a try

             1. Vicki – Absolutely and at this point I think just raising public awareness is huge. Somehow no one is noticing that hundreds of thousands of people are still unaccounted for – entire towns. Spreading that audio interview around may get help there sooner.

                JpDave you can also find a link on twitter – go to St. Boniface Haiti Foundation on twitter – article posted about two hours ago – article has link to the full interview on audio. I was there when they taped it today and got to say hi to Conor and hear his voice and say he was ok over the satellite phone. Good to hear his voice- the Shapiros are like family to us.

                1. Thank you, I appreciate your help in sending me in the right direction.

                   1. Kate I am so glad you asked. It sent me in the right direction as well.

22. the school for the enviornment of Umass Boston is heading down there in the spring. Not sure exactly what, but we are raising money to send supplies.

23. What time does the rain start tonight?

24. As much as Price was a big pile of steaming dog chyte last night, the bats have been equally as chyty.
    Farrell will be the fall guy (although I wouldn’t mind seeing him go).

    1. You’re right. Collectively the team has been flat on offense, defense, and pitching.

       The team as a whole was unprepared for this series. And that’s where Farrell comes in. He deserves some blame for this. And I still do not hear him publicly criticize Price the way he did the young players like Bogaerts and Bradley. That’s wrong on many counts. David Price is awful in the post-season, and Farrell should have been more candid about this, particularly in light of Price’s lack of fire, accountability. He’s an Adrian Gonzalez type, and I can’t stomach those kinds of players.

       1. I hate the Sox probably won’t make it beyond this series (there’s still a chance obviously). But I’m kinda glad it’s Tito sticking it to them. The way Henry and Werner treated him on the way out was inexcusable.

25. Dear heavens, TK. You are amazing. If that eye gets any closer to charleston it would be on top of them. But it is not. And as it approaches Georgetown, it also appears that it will turn just before making landfall there also. And Georgetown sticks further out. You would think Matthew is being steered. Phenomenal. Good news is that as they approach high tide ocean direction is moving to NE.

    It does appear that everyone here is hurricaned out. I cant help but continue to be fascinated by this guy and TKs accuracy.

    1. I may be wrong. This say it did make landfall just south of McClellanville. But if so, it was a peck on the cheek?????

       http://www.live5news.com/story/33339131/first-alert-hurricane-matthew-makes-landfill-near-mcclellanville-as-weak-category-1

26. The center got about half way onshore then stopped and started moving east.

    Sorry for the delay. Feeling under the weather. New post is up…short and sweet.

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