Tuesday Forecast

118 Comments

7:32AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 18-22)…
Warm front lifts through the region this morning and introduces weather that will remind you of summer with warmth and some humidity. Weak cold front drops through in the early hours of Wednesday with a few showers, and it dries the air out a little but doesn’t cool it much of Wednesday, which will still have a bit of a summer feel. More legitimate cool air sinks in Thursday from the Canadian Maritimes, but the front will try to make a come back as a warm front later Thursday into Friday but the parent low pressure will start to combine with offshore low pressure and send a more significant area of rain into the region during Friday. All of this should move offshore Friday night and set up a drier, windy, cooler Saturday.
TODAY: Clouds dominate early along with a few isolated showers, then sun appearing from south to north later morning through afternoon. Last place to see sun northeastern MA and NH Seacoast. Highs 75-82. Wind light E shifting to SW then increasing to 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly to variably cloudy. Risk of a few rain showers overnight. Lows 53-60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-82. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Increasing clouds. PM rain showers. Lows 52-60. Highs 60-68.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain likely. Lows 48-55. Highs 58-66.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Windy. Lows 40-48. Highs 56-64.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 23-27)…
Mainly dry weather. Temperatures near to below normal early period, moderating later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 28-NOVEMBER 1)…
A couple opportunities for rain showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

118 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  2. JPDave says:
    October 18, 2016 at 7:39 AM
    Good morning. What a surprise with the rain, although Barry hinted that it could
    hold together for Boston.

    Picked up 0.02 inch in some evening pre-showers, however around 2:45 AM the heavens opened up and we picked up another 0.65 inch. Not too shabby. We’ll take it.

    We are in the middle of the house being painted and it was 3/4 primed yesterday.
    I hope that things will dry out enough and fast enough so they can work today.
    I just want it done. Have the contractors around is a pain in the ass.

  4. Thanks TK!

    Logan received a trace yesterday. It will be interesting how much for this morning. Hopefully it was a decent amount like what JPD got.

      1. I’m doing well. My Mom was in the hospital. She had a seizure while we were moving her into her new place which was scary. She was discharged from the hospital and moved to a short term rehab. If all goes well she should be getting out of there Friday. My Aunt(Mom’s sister) also passed away a week ago Sunday. We are happy she is at peace now with all the suffering she experienced. Thanks for asking Vicki.

        2. I am so sorry to hear of your aunt’s passing. I know she is in a better place for sure but it is so hard on those left behind. And your mom’s seizure had to be horribly scary. I’ll keep her in my prayers and hope that she is ready to move on Friday. Keeping you and your family in my prayers also!

    2. Scott, sorry for the loss of your Aunt. Wishing your Mom well in her recovery from the seizure. My Uncle just had one and they can be very scary when they happen.

    1. it would be a mix of the low over the lakes and the 99-L. Honestly would not surprise me if the rain goes to the west and to the east with a dry spot in the midel

  7. Rain friday into Saturday, then interesting storm possibility around hour 240. Gfs further north and west than the euro . This been the trend between the two models lately. gfs further north and west than the euro.

    we shall see.

    1. That’s ALL over the place. Translation: They haven’t got a clue.

      Put some Dates on the wall and throw a Dart at it and there is your date.

      Shall we have our own contest?

      I think I’d be in the Decemberists camp. Yes, that was purposeful. 😀

    3. I’m wishing for October 29th because I’ve convinced myself that when it snows in October, there’s a good chance there won’t be too much the rest of the winter !!

      1. Well darn. Now I will have to hope for no snow for the first time ever. But I can wait until November 1 😉

      2. never, let it snow and let it snow consistently. I do not want to see the brown ground till March 😉

  10. That light north northeast flow extends all the way back to Worcester, along with the low clouds.

    Will it surprise anyone if Logan waits til 6 or 7pm this evening to switch to a SW wind and to see a temp above 70 ?

  14. Barry hinted that the warm front may have a tough time pushing through
    our area. He said NE mass, but said it could affect the Boston area as well.

        1. Indeed, except this time of year, I don’t give a rat’s ass.
          If this were June, I’d be bullshit!

          It is sitting at 60 here.

            1. BAD MOM! BAD MOM!

              Hey, everyone was calling for a record
              HIGH temperature today, Even Barry, although he still stuck in that caveat to cover himself. But even so, he said: “I’m going for the Gold” and predicting a high of 83. 😀

              1. Ha! My younger son would wear shorts all year round but my older son isn’t as hardy as him when it comes to the cooler weather. 🙂

  17. I was out for a bit and thought I had misread the forecast. My son in law and older granddaughter wear shorts all year. SIL shovels in shorts and tee shirts but I’ve said that before (several times).

    And we have a coy dog in our neighborhood. Thank you, Matt, for identifying it. A neighbor took pics last night on the hill behind our house. I remember back in the mid-1970s fishing at Parmacheene Lake in upstate Maine. Folks were convinced that there were coy dogs in the area. The wildlife “experts” insisted there was no such thing. Unfortunately, ours looks awfully sick.

    1. I’m kind of frustrated at myself for not catching this yesterday for many reasons …..

      1) When that shower complex was in Ontario and upstate NY, it had a definite radar signature of a low pressure area in it. Should have put 2 and 2 together and figured a small scale low was going to cross the warm front and go out east of New England turning the surface winds northerly.

      2) How often in mid summer, when the sun angle maxes out btwn 60 and 70 degrees above the horizon, do we struggle to get warm fronts through eastern New England. Now the sun angle maxes at 38 degrees, no chance to burn this stuff off.

      3) There’s no intense low pressure passing to our west to increase the wind. Again, combining with #2, no chance to bust the warm air back in.

      Oh well, live and learn. Next time.

      1. With all that said, sometime mid or late evening, I do think winds will turn SE, then S, then SW and eastern areas will climb to 65 to 70F and then hold close to that for a very mild October night.

  20. Sunny and breezy here in Manchester CT. BDL in Windsor Locks has hit 82 as of 1PM and we have already broken the old record of 80!

  21. It is sunny and close to 70 in my parking lot at work. I drove a half mile down the street towards the coast and it dropped to 63 and is still quite foggy. Of course these are the temps displayed in my car so I know they aren’t accurate but the difference was crazy in such a short distance.

  23. Bright sunshine and up to 71 here at the Storm HQ World Headquarters. 0.53″ in the rain gauge from the overnight downpours.

  26. Not a cloud in the sky here in Brockton, up to 76. Meanwhile, on the satellite, the edge of the cloud shield looks to be in the Milton/Quincy area now. On my forecasts last night, I kept it cloudy and cool most places until early afternoon (evening for the North Shore/NH Seacoast), but I figured inland areas *(i.e. Metro West/Merrimack Valley) would have already been sunny and warmer by now. I went for low to mid 70s across much of the area, and even that could be in doubt if it doesn’t clear out soon.

  27. Will see if these tweets end up verifying for the winter.
    Meteorologist Ed Vallee
    New JMA December-February forecast quite cool, active in the central-eastern US. Much cooler than some guidance,most similar to Euro #winter

    This tweet from meteorologist Ben Noll
    New JMA seasonal advertises a cold/snowy Plains-Midwest-East “flip” in December. Fits analog narrative, agrees with ECMWF.

    1. The tides have been incredible. Very high high’s and crazy low low’s. Another set tomorrow.

      Closest full moon since I believe 1948 due in November. There’s a 12.5 ft tide in that cycle the day after the full moon.

      Hope we don’t have a nor’easter in mid November, that would be a problem. We’ve been lucky the last few days, could you imagine a 1 to 2 ft storm surge in that Gloucester picture ?

      1. Thank you for that info, Tom. I hope there isn’t anything in mid-November also. Is there any damage along the south shore beaches?

        1. No, not damage. Just lots of water 1 he either side of high tide, as is shown in the photos.

          Big swells too, maybe left over from Nicole ????

  32. A balmy 51F with fog and drizzle here in Plymouth, NH. Coldest it’s been all day. Been at 55F or less since daybreak.

      2. It is so hard to believe that we have an perfectly blue sky with sun shining on the trees and you have heavy fog. Crazy.

  34. If Barry had been on-air this morning, my bet is that he would have caught on and forecasted what most of us had today. He has a knack for these stubborn warm fronts.

  36. Warm front now through Pembroke and most of Marshfield, with the exception of the coastal roads. Busy S wind now and quite a temperature jump.

        1. Oh shame on me……I am hanging my head low. I’ll just blame it on having my focus elsewhere

          But still…………

            1. Kidding aside the fog was thick, but the warm front has pushed through as it has turned into a starry night.

        1. I am as well.

          I have a small surgical procedure tomorrow. I figure after this discussion, while under anesthesia, I’ll be talking about Charlie Brown or belting out Rudoph the Red Nose Reindeer.

            1. Thanks Tom. Just more kidney stone things. On the scale of things…..not a big deal. It is a stent so for 10 days I may turn into vicious Vicki 🙂

  39. TWC winter storm names are out.

    I figure somewhere between Jupiter and Pluto should be our big snow producer. 🙂 🙂

      1. LOL ……. I don’t want to offend any Valerie’s out there, but it just doesn’t sound like a menacing winter storm.

        1. Watch Valerie be the one that brings giant waves and flooding rain to the PNW, record snow in the Rockies, a massive blizzard in the northern Plains, an ice storm in the central Plains, a severe weather outbreak in the Southeast, and an old fashion northeaster up this way…

    2. At first, I thought this naming thing of winter storms was silly. But, I’ve changed my mind on it a bit.

      Say Nemo in Marshfield and most people will start telling stories about the 5 day power outage in most of town a few winters ago. The NStar power outage map became the site to visit for many marshfield people who were staying with relatives in nearby, less affected towns.

        1. Other than in jokes, I don’t use the names either. I won’t use them while writing forecasts.

  40. JPDave…Logan received a very paltry 0.14″ compared to your 0.65″. Are you sure that your rain gauge was correct? Of course we both know how Logan can compare with the rest of the city of Boston sometimes. 😉

    And it is certainly possible that JP and the surrounding areas happened to be in the sweet spot. I would be curious of other locations including my own (Dorchester). All I know is that it poured early this morning.

      1. Since I was driving home in it and checked the radar when I got home, I can tell you that they heaviest cells passed just south and west of Boston, so I have no doubt that his readings are correct. I had 0.53″ in Brockton. Blue Hill had 0.55″ as well.

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