Wednesday Forecast

47 Comments

7:13AM

KING TIDES…
I’m a little behind with this having not been feeling well, but I wanted to address the ongoing King Tides, which are actually ending after today for this cycle, though will repeat again during the November 14-17 period during the next full moon. The King Tides are the highest tides of the year resulting from an alignment of the Earth, Moon, and Sun. The King Tides this year are also coming at a time when the moon as at its closest to Earth in 48 years, making them even more impressive. These tides run around 2 feet above the normal high tide, and will result in coastal flooding even in tranquil weather. The November King Tides will be slightly higher than these October ones. Hopefully they will not coincide with storminess, especially moderate or strong onshore wind.

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 19-23)…
The warm front that was expected to be slow getting through eastern MA and southeastern NH on Tuesday was even slower than expected, not clearing the entire region until early at night. Many of these areas experienced their highest temperatures of the day well after sunset. And now a weak cold front will slide southward with some clouds early today, though even behind this front it will still be quite warm. It will take until Thursday to be somewhat cooler as the wind turns more to the northeast, but by that time the front will already be making a come-back as a warm front and bring cloudiness and a chance of rain showers by later Thursday. Another cold front will approach from the west on Friday, and ahead of it some tropical moisture from a system to the south may get drawn northward, bringing the chance of some significant rain to the region. I’m not 100% sold on this idea yet, but will monitor it. The front itself should produce some decent rain showers Friday night. By the weekend, we’ll be in a drier, much cooler air mass, with moderate to at times strong and gusty northwest wind, and it will feel quite seasonably chilly.
TODAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Highs 74-82. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 48-56. Wind light W becoming variable.
THURSDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of rain showers by mid to late afternoon. Highs 60-68. Wind light NE.
FRIDAY: Mainly cloudy. Episodes of rain likely. Lows 50-58. Highs 60-68.
SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Windy. Lows 42-50. Highs 57-64.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Windy. Lows 35-43. Highs 54-61.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 24-28)…
Risk of light rain October 24. Windy, cool, dry October 25. Fair with moderating temperatures October 26-28.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 29-NOVEMBER 2)…
The pattern may turn a little more unsettled during this time.

47 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

      1. Define normal? The last 100-200 years or so of accurate weather data? I don’t think we have the slightest clue what normal is in terms of temps and climate. Climate cycles can last hundreds or thousands of years. Maybe what we think is normal actually isn’t. One “more active than the last few years” hurricane season only validate the averages.

        2. Hard to tell what is normal. One thing we know is not normal is our pollution of the earth. Absolutely no question that affects it negatively.

  12. Thanks TK, hope you’re feeling better. Have been busy lately but hope everyone’s doing well! A couple of climate-related reflections based on posts here and elsewhere…

    King tides… A great example of a normal phenomenon that will continue to be further enhanced in the future by sea level rise due to climate change. “Sunny-day floods.”

    West Pacific typhoons… Nothing too unusual I can see about Haima, which is the current typhoon out there. A monster storm, but not an atypical one. It does seem like there’s been a lot of such storms out there the past few years, but the climatology and data record for that basin is too short, IMO, to draw meaningful conclusions. You can looks at impacts of climate change on individual storms, Haiyan (2013) for instance, but it would be tough to correlate longer term relationships at this point.

    September 2016… Per NOAA, the second warmest September on record, missing 2015’s record mark by 0.04C. This ends a remarkable streak of 16 consecutive “warmest months on record.” NASA, for their part, rated September 2016 as warmest on record, by 0.01C, but the NOAA record is more “official.”

    Enjoy this weather!

  14. Anyone know what the EURO is projecting for precip somewhere btwn 48 and 96 hrs ?

    Quick glance, looks like it has a closed low just SW of NYC and a surface low over New England, around 988 mb.

    1. Thanks Mark and JpDave.

      EURO looks more phased to me than GFS, as if it’s capturing more Atlantic moisture and I was curious as to what that translated to in terms of rain.

      1. Seems the trend from the 12z guidance is a faster/more complete phasing scenario. Should yield a pretty impressive low pressure if that scenario pans out. Hopefully that means good rain for SNE as well.

  17. Things have been crazy busy around here.

    TK, I hope you continue to feel better and hope your mother is feeling better, too.

    Vicki – hope your procedure went well and hope you are feeling good.

    Beautiful day today. But even ‘though the temps. are summerlike – it’s hard to think it’s summer as not only the days are shorter but the trees are so colorful. And many of them are truly brilliant.

    1. Thank you rainshine. I am home as of 30 minutes ago and waiting anxiously for my crabmeat sub from linden store Wellesley. Focus on me u post procedure is the highlight for me :). I’m told it went well. I still have enough meds in me not to know pain level.

      Disclaimer……..I was told not to make important decisions today and that translates for me to please do not pay much attention to anything I say 🙂 🙂

      Although as I write that I’d say that advice could apply to me in general !!

    1. Thank you TK….I suspect you need to look up the definition of rest also…..please take care of you!!!

  20. Two swimmers (father-in-law/son-in-law) were rescued by the Coast Guard yesterday/last night after they got pulled out by riptides off Crane Beach in Ipswich.
    The older man was treading water for more than four hours!

    I am thinking this incident was the results of the King Tides???

    Wonderful effort and result from our dedicated first responders!!!

    1. I did see that and I cannot imagine how the older man held on treading for that long. I thought the son in law said rip tide

      As thank you. I am resting…..although I keep having to look up the definition of the word !! 🙂

  21. Hope you’re resting tonight, Vicki…

    You, too, TK…

    Cleveland and Terry Francona win the American League pennant!

  22. Hi All, I’m helping to coordinate a road race in Clinton on Saturday. Any early calls on weather conditions between 10:00 AM and 4:30 PM? In particular wondering about rain. Thanks!

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