Thursday Forecast

161 Comments

7:19AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 27-31)…
No big changes today. Low pressure approaches from the west via the Great Lakes today and redevelops over southern New England tonight and early Friday before departing via the Gulf of Maine. Rain moves in later today but may start as some snow/sleet in higher elevations of north central MA and south central NH. A front nearby this weekend may bring a couple periods of wet weather with current timing favoring later Saturday and again later Sunday. Still some fine tuning to do here. Monday (Halloween) looks dry and cool.
TODAY: Clouding up morning. Rain develops west to east and may start as a brief period of snow/sleet especially well northwest and west of Boston favoring higher elevations. Highs 44-52. Wind light NE to E.
TONIGHT: Overcast. Periods of rain, may be heavy at times. Lows 40-48. Wind variable becoming SE, 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of rain early. Highs 50-58. Wind SE to variable 5-15 MPH, becoming W 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Risk of rain showers favoring late-day. Lows 32-40. Highs 52-60.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Risk of rain showers favoring afternoon. Lows 40-48. Highs 54-62.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 33-41. Highs 52-60.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 1-5)…
Current indications are for mainly dry and milder weather early to mid period and a rain risk later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 6-10)…
Mainly dry weather. Temperatures near to above normal.

161 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  3. Thanks TK. A frigid 27F here in Plymouth, NH. Had the precip arrived a little earlier things may have gotten more interesting here. As it is, we may start as snow/mix but it should go to rain pretty quickly.

  4. Good morning!! Thank you, TK.

    This is at least our fourth frost. 28.1 with 25 DP. Hoping to see at least one flake.

    Have a great game, MassBay!!

  5. Thanks TK! Hoping I will be able to watch Pats-Bills on Sunday. The WBZ tower could be vulnerable once again. I don’t recall these issues with analog tv.

    According to their website, the tower is 1,200 feet high.

  9. Thanks TK !

    The radars last night on the TV weather casts showed sprinkles and light showers along the coast this morning with the onshore breeze and sure enough, it was misty with some bigger rain drops in there for good measure.

  10. Thanks TK.
    Seeing my first flakes right now. I hope I will be seeing many more of them in the coming months.

  11. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Hit a frosty 29 at my house in JP this morning. It was already up to 34 by the time
    I headed to work. Coldest of the season so far and the 1st day below freezing since
    last Spring some time. 😀

  13. Ok – my blinds are pulled up rather than just opened. I don’t want to miss even one little snowflake!

  14. Vicki hopefully you will see some flakes as well today. Not expecting any accumulating snow where I am but just north of me in the northern parts of Litchfield county they may get a slushy coating inch on the grass.
    This is not unheard of here to have flakes in October here in CT. Thankfully this won’t be like the October Noreaster of 2011 which caused lot of damage and largest power outage in CT history.

  17. Jimmy, I wouldn’t get too excited about seeing accumulating snow if I were you…just remember what happened (or didn’t) during the 2011-12 winter.

  19. I remember that quite well that one big storm in October and very little snow that winter. 12.3 of the 24 inches of snow that fell that winter fell with that October Noreaster. Hopefully that won’t happen this time but it always seems when it snows in October the snowfall for the upcoming winter is way below normal. I do love the snow and I am enjoying this since its not going to cause the damage it did in that 2011 storm. With that said I want to enjoy the fall colors and get the leaves raked. After the trees are bare and the leaves are raked bring on the snow.

    1. Lucky you.

      I see on radar, the snow is running into somewhat less cold air and is
      mixing with or becoming rain as it progresses Eastward. Totally expected!

  24. Its been snowing pretty good here where I am for about two and half hours now. Snow covering the grass, cars, roofs, and leaves on the trees. Good news is nothing sticking to the pavement.

  25. For eastern areas, though its not snow …… perhaps a chance at a thunderstorm tonight as the energy and surface low pass nearly overhead.

    Just an early autumn observation … The west coast looks like its going to do better as a whole this cold season receiving rain and snow than it did during last season with a strong El Nino.

    In the east, feels like its been cold shots followed by inside runners. If that’s the pattern throughout the winter, once we get to the heart of winter, those type of scenarios can still crank out decent front end dumps of snow.

  26. Been snowing about an hour here at my office in Manchester CT but intensity has definitely picked up since it started. Everything is just wet and it’s not sticking but still very pretty. I would not be surprised if the ground is getting whitened back at my house which sits at 800′ elevation. Should have set up a video camera 🙂

  28. Snow still coming down moderately in Manchester. Now sticking to the grass and trees. Enjoying it while I still can!

    1. Let’s not get over zealous Mark!

      Some large flakes here in Manchester, CT. This is going to ruin my plan to take care of the leaves tonight. . .

      2. Hi Ken! My mind forgets but I do not remember seeing your name here and apologize if I am wrong. Welcome if you are new. And very happy to see you if you are not!

        Are the leaves off of your trees? A good portion of the leaves are still on the trees in Sutton.

        1. Hey Vicki! I am a friend of Mark’s and came on last year. Thank you so much for the warm welcome back!

          The leaves are still on the trees around here. With all this precipitation as of late, they are slowly falling down.

  32. It was very cold out this morning around 5:00 a.m. I know as I was rushed to the hospital for bad pains in my back and stomach. To my surprise, I have kidney stones. I usually drink a lot of water so I was somewhat surprised; but I guess anyone can get them. It was quite an experience in the ambulance and the whole ordeal.

    Vicki – I know you have kidney stones. My husband has had them. Not only do they cause bad pain but for me I felt really sick. More fun for our household – I’m being sarcastic. I am hoping for happier times.

    1. Sorry to hear about that. I had a few bouts with them in the past.
      Not pleasant. I hope you are feeling better quickly.

    2. Oh dear, rainshine. I am sorry to hear that. What did they do? And has the stone passed? I currently have a stent in my right kidney to try and get a few to vacate. And they do make me feel sick as well. I’ll send you an email.

  34. The sleet rain mixture has gone back over to all snow where I am. I thought I was done seen snow today when the transition happened.

  35. Just rain here. It is simply TOO WARM being right around 49 or 50 Degrees.
    It would have to stay cold above and come down in buckets to get anything to happen here. I just don’t think cold stays here long enough above before it can precipitate hard enough.

    hmmm HRRR keeps it cold at 850MB (Below freezing) until 9PM or so.
    Interesting, but it’s just TOO WARM at the surface.

    1. Boston Bouy water temperature:

      Water Temperature (WTMP): 57.4 °F

      That sure the bleep isn’t helping matters anywhere near the coast.

      Not for nothing, but when we had that late October snow in 2011,
      the bouy temp was 52 Degrees. It’s 5 Degrees higher this year, perhaps only 4 if it drops another degree before Oct 30. 😀

      1. The ocean is crazy warm this year.

        That could be fun for some intense cyclogenesis and extra moisture thrown back into cold air later this winter.

  36. JJ, same thing happened here. Started mixing with sleet briefly now back to moderate snow. Been snowing for 3+ hours now!

  37. Mark there is actually some snow now sticking to the pavement with the heaviest burst I have seen so far today.

  38. Bradley has had measurable snowfall today. I guess this means below normal snowfall if the trend of measurable snowfall in October holds.
    Tweet from Ryan Hanrahan
    0.2″ of snow at BDL makes today the 4th snowiest October day in the Hartford area since 1905!

    1. below normal in CT. I love your state, JJ, but that is one thing you can keep inside your borders 🙂

  39. The cold air barrier cut off seems to be about the CT/RI border going due North
    right through into NH. Interesting.

  41. Is something happening here?

    I see that winds have shifted from SE to NE across many of the reporting stations?????
    Temp still 48 at Logan.

  43. I agree. Now will see how much more we add to the 0.2 that has fallen so far in the winter of 16-17.

  44. Any wind shift to NE was just temporary OR a big truck went by the observation location as all winds are now back to SE. 😀

  47. I am hearing we got 1-2″ in Coventry and sticking to the roads. Much different story in the hilltowns! Co-worker just said I-384 (my route home) just east of here is closed in Bolton with multiple spin outs.

  48. Listening to NOAA weather radio, Paxton, they are saying we could have thunderstorms tonight and early tomorrow morning. Quite a potpourri of potential weather scenarios.

  49. Thank you, TK.

    The inevitable transition to late fall has begun. Cool, crisp mornings, less than half our 24 hour day is daylight, foliage has peaked, and the first snowflakes have fallen across a swath of interior New England. I realize that this transition is not everyone’s cup of tea. I sympathize with those who experience S.A.D. with the approach of winter. For some weird reason, I feel a sense of exhilaration as the heat and humidity of summer are reduced to memories, bugs disappear, and hot beverages replace cold at the neighborhood coffee house.

    1. Hi Joshua. The colder weather has always given me a shot of exhilaration. There is something about it that just feels pure.

  50. Looking at the way the snow was coming down at Bradley about half hour ago I would not be surprised if they get another tenth or two of snow to add to the 0.2 they got today.

  51. Today worked about as planned. It snowed where it was supposed to. A zone a little further southeast got more than “expected” which was the result of earlier onset with more cold available. The sharper line to the east was simple the edge of deeper marine air. So, no big surprises, just a few tiny ones.

    Now the bluster arrives tomorrow. Not a bad weekend but still may get wet a couple times. Chilly but dry Halloween then milder the first couple days of November. Vigorous shortwave, if timed correctly, may bring some snow to northern New England later next week and deliver a brief shot of cold air here. Will keep an eye on that.

  52. Some interesting things on radar right now. There is an odd precip hole over SE MA, persisting even as most of the rain moves northeast. There are also a few cells starting to move northwest into Cape Ann.

  53. As we sit in the rain, the weekly drought monitor came out this morning. Extreme drought in MA was slashed from 37.83% of the state down to only 37.82%, so we’re really making some big strides. With today’s rain, I wonder if we can knock it all the way to 37.81% next week 😉

    http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?MA

    Regionally, there were some more meaningful improvements, but still a ways to go.

    http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/RegionalDroughtMonitor.aspx?northeast

    1. Your’re funny. With the deluge last Friday, I would have thought it could
      have been reduced by a tad more than that.

  54. As of now, on the radar loop bostbliz posted, there’s some deep oranges/reds over much of western and northern RI. Given temps at 850mb and above still at or below freezing, I’d imagine radar is hitting some solid matter out that way.

  56. Just got home. We received about 2″ of snow in Coventry, CT and still sitting at 32F. Have not cracked freezing all afternoon. There is still some frozen precip. mixing in with the rain. Solid snow cover on grassy areas and the secondary roads are slush covered and slippery in spots. Went back roads to avoid the closed interstate and actually had to turn on the auto 4 wheel drive. I snapped a few pictures:

    Road near my house:
    http://s13.postimg.org/7tbp2qsdj/IMG_4316.jpg

    Back deck:
    http://s13.postimg.org/99n7kvvaf/IMG_4317.jpg

    Snow accumulation on deck table:
    http://s13.postimg.org/t5j70fcbr/IMG_4320.jpg

  57. Saw a few smaller trees on the way home with leaves still on them and the branches were sagging under the weight of the couple inches of heavy wet snow. It doesn’t take much. No wonder we had the damage we did in Oct 2011 when we got 8-12″

    Hopefully this doesn’t jinx us for the year. I don’t think it will. 🙂

  58. Mark nice pics.
    Bradley ended up with 1.5 inches of snow making it third highest snowfall total on record in the month of October.
    1. 12.3 in 2011
    2. 1.7 in 1979 a week after an F4 tornado struck Windsor Locks
    3. 1.5 today
    2011-12 and 1979-80 winter ended up with below normal snowfall. I hope this is the first winter where we had snowfall in October we get normal to above normal snowfall.

    1. This explains what I am seeing, I think.

      From NWS:

      The increased instability with the approach of the dry slot will
      lead to some elevated thunder. These more convective elements may
      produce even heavier rain. Regardless, am not expecting any
      widespread flooding. Areas with heavier rain could see some
      instances of poor drainage and urban flooding.

  67. Lightning detector shows no strikes in New England, but some in New Jersey. Wonder if that will make it’s way here.

    1. I checked if too. Aren’t we a pair :). Will have to sleep with window open so I can hear just in case

  68. From Eric Fisher
    Just peeked at Euro Weeklies just in…yep…still gnarly mid November into December. Stormy pattern after next week, y’all.

    1. TJ to me that means the potential is there once we get to mid November for a turn to a colder weather pattern along with one that could be stormy either snow mix or rain events.

    2. several models are picking up on the active pattern with some cold highs to the north and northwest does an active pattern mean snow, for us here in southern New England maybe, maybe not. We could have the ingredients but like everything else we need them to line up just right for this time of year

    1. I’ll be darned. Some nice totals for october in MA also.

      I reserve the right, since we did not get any snow, to have lots this winter. Those locations can just receive less if they would like!!

  71. Morning folks. I’m on my alternate account for a bit.

    I apologize for the fact the update won’t get done until this afternoon around 3PM.

    In the mean time carry on in the comments below.

  72. Where are the reports from Berkshire County? Are there no observation stations out there?? I would assume they would have the biggest snowfall totals, if anything.

  73. Good morning. Not sure when my Rain gauge reset or if it did?

    before midnight it was reading 0.59 inch.
    This morning, it was 0.71 inch, so I am thinking the .71 was for the entire event.
    It says previous event was .35 on 10/22 or last Saturday after the deluge.

  74. Good morning, y’all!

    Boy, it was dark on the commute in this morning!!!! I kept checking my watch and car clock to make sure it wasn’t 2:45 am instead of 6:45 am!!!!!

  75. Good morning! The rain washed away all our snow overnight and there isn’t anything left on the ground, other than a tremendous amounts of leaves that need to be removed. At least the snow cover made me forget about that for about 12 hours 🙂

    Just under an inch of melted liquid in the rain gauge from a combination of the rain and wet snow.

  76. Pete Bouchard spoke of “taking a sledgehammer to the drought” with this system. I think that’s an exaggeration. Mother Nature dug a huge hole for us and She’s gradually filling in the water deficit, but we have a long way to go. Perhaps the storminess JJ and others alluded to, starting in mid November, will further alleviate drought concerns. But, for those of us in SNE who like snow, having a pattern switch to storminess `too’ early (mid November) may translate into more rain and perhaps kitchen sink precipitation than snow, especially at the coast. I’ve found that historically early winter storminess favors snows in ski country and the interior of New England, but not the coast. Factors include ocean temperature which works to `warm’ the air along the coast even when there’s a northeast wind. I’d rather have a pattern change in mid December than mid November, because we coastal dwellers may be in for more cold rain than anything else.

    1. I agree . The water is going to take some time to drop in my opinion . But I do remember thanksgiving two yrs ago with that storm . We were salting that Wednesday night.

    2. There’s nothing wrong with a pattern switch to cold and stormy in mid Nov, as long as it holds until April!

    1. Thanks Mark…very surprised though that NWS Taunton would leave out a county within the same state. I will try to remember for future reference.

      1. CT is even more bifurcated. Litchfield Co is handled out of Albany. Hartford, Tolland, and Windham Counties are covered by Taunton, and the four southern counties are handled by Upton. I agree, would be much more intuitive if all of SNE were just handled by Taunton!

  78. I had heard or read a couple of weeks ago that we were around -20″ of precipitation for the last couple of YEARS! Statistics may reset on January 1, but watersheds and ground water, water tables, etc. do not!

    These October rains are wonderful and we are +1.29″ for the month. But we are -9.14″ for the year and around -18.5″ for the last couple of years.

    It’s a scratch, but not even a dent into our drought!

  81. Latest sunrises of the year till Daylight Saving Time ends in about a week. Even the sun doesn’t rise this late during the winter solstice into early January!

  83. From the Killington facebook page…

    “10” of goodness fell overnight. Snowfall never changed over to rain as forecasted, making this October surprise deeper than any single snow event last season!”

    1. Let’s think about that for a minute, 10″ last night was more than ANY single snow event all of last season. Goes to show how bad last season really was up there. I sincerely hope this is the first of many snow events for them all the way through to April.

      1. Pretty incredible. Even if they only receive average snowfall this year (which they should – at least), this season will put the last one to shame.

    1. Thank you Mark. Then I think I have a problem with when and how my
      rain gauge resets.

      So I had 0.59 prior to midnight and then this morning it had 0.71

      So, I believe it reset at midnight as it should. No problem.
      Then my total was .59 + .71 = 1.30 inches which sounds about right based
      on those reports.

      The problem with my rain gauge is the previous event display. It is actually
      display the previous rain event (last Sat) and not the daily reset. That
      actually may be the way it is supposed to work, because it was counting
      yesterday and overnight into this morning as one (1) rain event. Ok got it.

      Thank you very much Mark for those totals. I helped me a lot.

  85. several skiing areas received snowfall and some did not change at all. I am going to Killington this year for the race. I am honest scared of it the race that I am taking part there as its the first time I will be racing and its on the same trail that I injured myself on. I am hoping for a lot of soft POW

      1. not sure yet, it depends on the season, but I am guessing one of the usual trails they use. It depends on what they use for the GS race.

  86. Today is my absolutely favorite Fall Day Type. I love the clouds and the cool, crisp air and the breeze and the smell and the GREAT feel.

  87. So are we going to see rain into the night now? Big playoff football game for North Reading High School tonight, so hope it clears up by 7 p.m.

    1. I am heading to the Silver Lake playoff game tonight so I do hope it stays dry! Good luck to North Reading!!

  89. What a difference 24 hours makes where it looked and felt like winter yesterday. Now gusty winds cloudy skies today.

  90. My Winter 2016 – 2017 Outlook (Guess 🙂 )

    Ok, I’ve noticed the west coast, especially the northern half having a very wet autumn and even the southern half of the west coast has already gotten a few shots of rain.

    I think, by and large, there will be a neutral ENSO throughout the winter.

    Already, there is an impressive Siberian/ Northern Hemisphere snow cover and a likewise impressive Siberian Arctic airmass.

    Putting the early clues together ……..

    I see the Pacific Jet stream being very active and further south than in recent winters. The west coast will be well above average on precipitation.

    Many of the storms that crash into the west coast, will traverse the country from Thanksgiving through to late February.

    Many storm tracks will track from the Ohio Valley into the St Lawrence Valley. However, some of those will still result in impressive snowfall amounts changing to inland sleet and freezing rain due to arctic air banked just to our north in January and February.

    A few will be true inside runners, tracking up over the Great Lakes.

    1, maybe 2 will head to our south and be classic Northeasters.

    I guess 56.3 inches of snow at Logan.

    Unlike recent winters, the most snow will fall to the north and west and in the mountains, where over 100 inches will fall in Concord, NH. Conversely, Plymouth, MA will see 37 inches and Hyannis on the Cape will see 21.5 inches.

    There will be episodes of decent snow cover in the Boston to Providence area, however, occasional mild days and warmer storm systems wont allow for an individual snow cover to last more than a week.

    Temps on a whole from Dec to March will be average to 1F below average.

    March will return to drier times with temps remaining near normal.

    1. Thanks Tom. Very interesting.

      I hope you are wrong about the inside runners. I can’t stand those. 😀

    2. i believe at this point for at least second half of November through December, we will see an active pacific jet, sending systems across the Northern tier of the country weakening as it does so, with redeveloping some systems off the coast with varying locations, some right over us some redeveloping in the gulf of maine, some possibly going to the south of us, Sort of like this system with varying locations. I also believe we start seeing some small clippers comming in from the lakes that could hold some moisture.

  93. Cold air aloft is NOT very far West of us. Could we get everything to line up
    where the colder air moves in while we still have some precip going on?

    Hmmm

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