42 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

1. Thanks TK !

2. Thanks TK. Definitely looks more active in the coming week or two.

3. Good morning and thank you TK.

   Looks stormy to me down the road and colder. Snow possibilities? Could be.
   We shall see.

   Harvey mentioned Dr. Cohen last night and hinted at the Winter forecast.
   He didn’t come out and say it, but I got the impression he was leaning towards colder
   with at least more snow than last year. Again, we shall see. 😀

4. Thank you, TK.

   I can guarantee one thing with regard to the weather. Whatever numbers I choose for the snow contest, it will be the exact opposite!

   1. please say 5 then so then we get a bunch of snow

      1. I cannot just make up a number. I have to use Vicki logic.

         perhaps that is an oxymoron??

5. When is the deadline for the contest?

   1. Have we decided on the cities yet?

      1. A tale of 2 cities? 3 cities? 4 cities?

         1. TK said same cities as last year as well as an addional one or two from northern New england

            1. Right but those are the ones we don’t know

         2. It was the best of times…it was the worst of times

6. Excerpt from Dr. Cohen’s Blog this week:

   Of the three regions, East Asia, Europe and the Eastern US, the forecast for the Eastern US is the most difficult as we approach and begin winter. I continue to believe that the evolving PV circulation favors colder temperatures in the Eastern US. Ridging/positive geopotential height anomalies are predicted to build near Alaska in the polar stratosphere influencing similar anomalies near the surface. Furthermore the models predict the coldest temperatures in the polar stratosphere to eventually pool over Eastern Canada, this may be a sign of Arctic air eventually becoming more widespread across Canada. On the other hand the North Pacific jet looks to remain highly energetic. The more energized jet seems to be a response to the very cold temperatures across Siberia and an increased equator to pole temperature gradient. With no sign of moderating temperatures across Siberia I see little reason to anticipate a slackening of the North Pacific Jet. A strong North Pacific Jet crossing the West Coast of North America often results in a mild to very mild pattern across the continent and this remains a strong possibility. However, I wrote last week that I expect a southward displaced North Pacific Jet and for now the models agree. So with high pressure building to the north across Canada and lower pressure south across the US, if not a cold pattern it is certainly a colder pattern for North America. And certainly high pressure to the north and low pressure to the south is highly favorable for a more rapid advance of snow cover across both Canada and the Northern US.

   Link for complete read:

   https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

   1. Thank you. Great read.

      1. A bit tough in places, but I find it fascinating all of the time.

         I do believe that when Harvey Leonard gives his Winter forecast, he will rely heavily on Dr. Cohen’s findings. As I said earlier,
         he hinted at Colder and more snow. However, since he hasn’t
         given it yet, we can’t be certain.

7. Thank you TK!

8. I know that our (Hometown Forecast Services) official winter forecast is calling for near normal temperatures and near normal snowfall. Look for a blog post about it next week (once I have a chance to sit down and write it).

   1. Will it be similar? Or different? Do you and TK differ on the Winter forecast
      or are you pretty much in agreement?

      Inquiring minds would like to know.

      Many thanks

      1. I was given a copy of our Winter Outlook yesterday. I need time to digest it, and then out it in blog form. Since some of it includes stuff just for our clients, I need to strip out some of it before putting it in blog form.

         1. Oh for sure. that is understood. But how about a hint?

9. Liking the forecast for Saturday for America’s Hometown Thanksgiving parade! At least those of us in the parade will not need hand and foot warmers. 🙂

10. Has anyone looked at the 12Z Euro?
    Holy Crap Batman, quite a RAIN even, even for up North, 8-10 days out.
    4-5 inches for that event alone. Rain all the way to the Canadian border, except for
    a touch of snow at the beginning.

    Of course, this does not mean it will verify.

    Even though the system basically stays underneath us, too warm aloft for snow.

    1. Actually, it’s “only” 2-4″ for eastern New England, but the point stands – it’s advertising a heavy rain event.

       However, the models (all of them), have been all over the place with regard to potential storms between Thanksgiving and the beginning of the following week. Putting stock in any one model solution right now is ill-advised.

11. Run total precip on the 12z Euro:
    https://s22.postimg.org/wfso62rfl/Capture.jpg

    Most of that in eastern New England is from the Black Friday coastal storm that the Euro develops. This track looks perfect and if it were mid January we would probably be getting pummeled by snow but as Dave said, just not enough cold air in place, at least on that run.

    1. Mark, looks like what I saw and all but 0.08 inch for Boston area
       is from the event being discussed.

       We’ll monitor future runs as it is quite a ways out there.

       I know it’s early for snow here, but Northern New England would
       be getting hosed IF that were to verify. What a shame.

       1. The Euro has zero snow accumulation with that storm all the way up to the Canadian border.

          1. Yup, that is what I said previously. I understand us
             not getting snow, but for the Ski industry, a nice early
             season dump would be nice.

             Let’s hope some cold air gets drawn in to salvage something up there.

             1. Gotcha, I misinterpreted what you wrote. Actually, I think I read it correctly but you just wrote it wrong 🙂

                1. I just re-read it. The only thing I screwed up was leaving a “t” off of event and writing even. I suppose that could have been misleading. 😀

12. I understood less than 1 percent of Dr. Cohen’s blog and it was still an excellent read!

    That being said I remain a steadfast snow-phobic, so if Vickie will consider predicting record snowfall for this winter it would be very appreciated!

    1. Hahaha……I will try to see what my Vicki logic can do. I have to know all cities for it to work properly :). I was thinking yesterday I hadn’t seen you here in too long. Hope all is well.

       1. Vicki – Things are great, just so busy. Fall / winter is my busiest time at work and we have a 6 year old at home so too many plates spinning. Also I’ve been working to put together some fundraising events for St. Boniface as for whatever reason Haiti’s latest disaster and accompanying famine and spike in cholera has been met with mostly defeaning silence by the majority of the international relief community so the volunteer work needed is both immense and urgent (and incredibly fulfilling too!) But I’ve been lurking faithfully – if sporadically – at WHW. You guys are always my last read before bed! (Don’t note the time as you may cry! – Actually I’ll copy and repost at end of thread so this doesn’t get lost in the shuffle!). I am counting on your prediction of at least 150 inches in Westford!

13. Hopefully we get some good precipitation events soon. Latest drought monitor 44% including my area of CT in extreme drought.

    1. http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/RegionalDroughtMonitor.aspx?northeast

       1. Thank you North. I’m not sure if anyone saw that quabbin is below 80%. Not good

14. Thanks TK.

15. Fisher was talking about how parts of northeastern CT are at a deficit of nearly 40 inches for the last 5 years. And people were initially doubting we were in a drought…….

    1. TK, still think we finally go into a wet pattern in late spring?

       1. Somewhere ’round there.

          1. just to go back to dry for the summer months right.

16. Vicki – in case you miss reply above – Things are great, just too busy. Fall / winter is my busiest time at work and we have a 6 year old at home so too many plates spinning. Also I’ve been working to put together some fundraising events for St. Boniface as for whatever reason Haiti’s latest disaster and accompanying famine and spike in cholera has been met with mostly defeaning silence by the majority of the international relief community so the volunteer work needed is both immense and urgent (and incredibly fulfilling too!) But I’ve been lurking faithfully – if sporadically – at WHW. You guys are always my last read before bed! (Don’t note the time as you may cry! – Actually I’ll copy and repost at end of thread so this doesn’t get lost in the shuffle!). I am counting on your prediction of at least 150 inches in Westford!

17. New post!

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