Monday Forecast

60 Comments

9:29AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 28-DECEMBER 2)
High pressure brings fair weather today. A series of low pressure areas will bring periods of rain Tuesday and Wednesday. Thinking the timing of things is fast enough so we’re getting into a drier, windy, cooler regime later in the week as December gets underway.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 42-49. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 25-32 interior, 32-37 elsewhere. Wind light variable.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Highs 42-49. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Rain mainly in the afternoon. Lows 38-45. Highs 45-55, warmest southeastern areas.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy and windy. Lows 38-45. Highs 45-52 northwest, 52-60 southeast.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy and windy. Lows 30-38. Highs 38-45.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 3-7)
Mainly dry December 3-5 though may have to watch for a weak disturbance with a few snow showers sometime later December 4 or early December 5. Next storm threat comes late in the period but odds favor a Great Lakes track with rain more likely here. This entire period has a higher than average degree of uncertainly regarding timing and strength of systems. Temperatures near to slightly below normal to start the period then moderating.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 8-12)
Pacific jet stream should send 1 or 2 low pressure areas into this area with precipitation threats more likely to be rain than mix/snow. Temperatures near to above above normal.

60 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  1. Thank you, TK.

    Sister in law said they are to receive much needed rain in Georgia today. I looked at one forecast (not having any idea how accurate it is) but only see the forecast for some storms moving through. I was hoping to see prolonged rain.

  3. Thank you TK.
    Can you please see what can be done about the Lakes Cutters? “Hopefully” we get
    them all out of the way now. 😀

    Re-post as I posted this as you were making the new post.
    Acu-rite owners/users. Please make sure you get the new upgrade.

    JpDave says:
    November 28, 2016 at 9:40 AM
    Here are 2 screen shots from my new AcuRite Mobile App that became available with
    their new upgrade to the smart hub. Personally, I think it is truly awesome. I can look
    at my weather station from any where in the world that has a wireless signal.

    http://imgur.com/a/XKygc

    And here is a screenshot of my weather station as it appears on the Wundermap.
    I had to re-do this after the upgrade, thus it is a different station name than previously:

    http://imgur.com/a/dXknt

    AS always, you can click on any image to enlarge it.

    1. That pattern will stay the same for a while, but once in a while we’ll get a more southerly track when the jet stream see-saws.

      1. Well, you’re trying anyway. 😀

        Perhaps after Dec 10th or so, we’ll see a change? Time will tell.

        I do remember one year where it was mild up through New Year’s Day. On New Year’s Day, it was like a switch was thrown and
        we entered Winter. Could this year be another like that?

        OR will Winter descend upon us a bit earlier than New Year’s Day? December 10th would be nice, Dec 17th would be OK as well. We shall see. Anything after New Year’s Day will NOT be acceptable, like I can do anything about it. 😀

            1. That’s what I was thinking. At least delay it. What worries me is that for the last several weeks as he outlines his thoughts on the transport mechanism for the intrusion of cold air, he keeps mentioning a caveat that would allow for a continuation
              of the mild weather. I do fear that is exactly what is happening.

  6. I believe for another month or so, the SE Ridge will be under forecast in the long range outlook on models. Then, as those time periods get closer to the short range, the SE ridge will project stronger and what had first appeared to be southern tracking storms in the long range will end up being over New England or further to our west.

    In January, as the atmosphere continues to cool off and at the surface, colder and colder air masses accumulate in eastern Canada, the SE ridge should get squashed enough to still bring moisture northeastward into New England, but, we will be on the colder side of the boundary. Sometimes, the cold layer will be thick enough for snow, other times it won’t be and it will be sleet or interior freezing rain.

    1. Well, I agree on one thing. Does not currently look like Winter will arrive
      much before January. There is still time for a pattern flip prior to January, but
      what you outline seems reasonable. Still does not guarantee the cold.
      We shall see.

  8. December 2013 was the last time that I can recall that winter got off to an early start. We received our first serious snowfall of the season on my mother’s last birthday on the 14th and we went on to have above normal snow that Winter 2013-14 (58.9″).

  12. Remember even our most recent history shows examples that our snowfall totals for the season can be largely accumulated in short time periods of climatic set ups favorable to snowstorms or even one off intense storms that are anomalous to the pattern.

    2014-2015 94.6″ of snow in 33 days beginning January 24 through February 25. November, December, the first 2/3 of January, the last week of February, March, and April combined for only 14″

    2012-2013 53″ of snow in 40 days beginning February 8th and ending March 19th. November, December, January, the first week of February and the remainder of March and April, 10″ of snow.

    2010-2011 66″ of snow in 38 days beginning December 26th and ending February 2nd. 14″ of snow the remaining time in November, most of December, February, March, and April

    An average of 85% of the above seasons’ snowfall fell in a 30-40 day period during a period of approximately 140-150 days where people in Southern New England are most likely looking for the potential for snowstorms. So 85% of the snow in a run of days equaling 25% of the “snowfall season”

    1. Yes, indeed. Sure, it certainly happens. Does it mean it happens this year?
      Nope. Could it happen this year? Yup.

      We shall see. 😀

        1. 😀 😀 😀 😀

          Ok, that is part of it, but your totals were only 33.5 for Boston. So I guess that means we’ll get like 25 inches in
          a 30-40 day period. Whoopie. That sounds like fun.
          So Winter will be over by Feb 15 or so?

              1. I’ll look on the bright side. Perhaps it will save me a few bucks in heating bills. We like to stay warm, so our bill is high. We can’t stand to parade around in sweaters and hats and watch TV wrapped in blankets. 😀 Plus we are officially senior citizens and can feel the cold in the house more readily than others.
                (yes, I know, outside the cold doesn’t bother me. Sometimes it does in doors, but it bothers my wife more. Sometimes I’ll watch TV in a tee shirt and she can’t believe that I am not cold. Sometimes I will the cold away, but I am fickle and sometimes I easily get cold in the house)

                TMI I suppose. 😀

                1. I’ve had heat on maybe five times tops for a total of 15-20 minutes each time. Kids keep telling me it is cold here but I don’t feel it. I currently have a long sleeve tee in but sleeves are pushed up.

  13. 12Z Euro has delayed any cool down until 12/6-12/7, followed by a sure to be
    LAKES CUTTER and subsequent warm up. What happens after that is unclear.
    Perhaps some frozen precipitation up North at the front end with even a slight chance
    of a bit of frozen up front here.

    1. Beautiful day today. I was out at lunch and it felt like Summer to me.
      IF it is cool, I sure as hell didn’t notice. 😀

      1. It is a touch of that bone chilling winter air. 37 here. Earlier was great – but of course waited until sun began to set before I went out. Darned work gets in the way. And I was not wearing anything but a light top 😉 Well, slacks also but no jacket.

          1. 35 here. We have noticed that Sutton Center is always at least three degrees colder than here and we are up on a hill with fairly constant winds

  15. Thanks, TK.

    Last beautiful day for a while, but we’ve had so many this month. We’re due for an extended period of unsettled weather (rain and clouds).

    Middle of the month I’m headed north for a few days – Quebec City – for the near certainty of snow and European-style Christmas markets. If QC doesn’t have snow and cold at that point, I’ll just have to drive further north to Sept-Iles.

      1. Thanks, Dave.

        Indeed, QC essentially has at least some snow on the ground from late November through early April.

    2. Hmmmmm. If I didn’t have the pull of kids and grandkids here, I might stowaway in your trunk. It sounds just lovely

  17. Joshua, regarding QC does that mean that the ground never gets bare from late November through April? A guaranteed white Christmas every year sounds like a dream come true. Have a good time. 🙂

    1. And bring us back some “souvenir” snow when you return. It will probably be the closest we will have a white Christmas around here! 😀

      1. Seriously–I read the whole thing, which is to say I was able to sound out most if the words, but have no idea what it means!

    3. dx/dz + dy/dz + ds/dz + the integral of 45h = snow

      (I do know Dr Cohen has a good track record and that his blogs are quite good.

      I am making fun of myself in trying to translate his blog.)

      1. Looks like a light glaze on some of the trees, and it’s definitely iced up the roads with several accidents reported.

  21. Yes it’s a great blog by the doc, but hard to follow. I even had to go back a couple times and re-read a few things…

    Basically the pattern now is the pattern for a while. And it should turn to the colder side of normal, eventually…maybe. 😉

    1. You sound like Dr. Cohen. Eventually, maybe. ha ha he he 😀 😀 😀

      It will do what it wants to do no matter what we or Dr. Cohen has to say about it.

      I don’t like the strong Pacific Jet and until that breaks down IF it breaks down,
      fuggettaboutit.

  22. On another note, given that October Rainfall was above normal and with the next
    2 decent events, November should be “near” average AND an early look at December indicates that it may be active, therefore IS there any thought that perhaps the “DRY” spell has ended 5-6 months earlier than anticipated?

    1. I don’t think that is the case. For now, we’ve slowed the bleeding, maybe stopped it, but we’re not really going to erase the issue that quickly. But this is an OK place to be now considering.

      1. Agreed we have slowed the bleeding and btw, I was not asking
        if There was thought that the drought is over. I was asking
        if the Dry pattern has been broken earlier than expected. 😀

  24. Don’t bother paying attend to the end of the 06z GFS run.

    Also, I think ECMWF may have timing issues next week.

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