Monday Forecast

100 Comments

2:40AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 5-9)
Why waste time? Let’s start the work week off with a bit of a tricky commute. The cause? Snow from a fairly weak low pressure area moving through the Northeast today. The worst areas? The initial burst of snow between 5AM and 8AM will move west to east and impact southern NH, central and parts of eastern MA most significantly, but not because of the amount of snow. In reality, accumulations will be rather small. But because of a cold night and early morning, snow that falls can lightly coat any surfaces rather quickly and make them quick slippery. Temperatures are marginal further southeast and a slightly later arrival of precipitation there will mean much less of an impact. By noon, it’s pretty much a done deal and anything left will be a mix/rain except still a pocket of snow possible in north central MA and southern NH before everything moves out. A break in the unsettled weather will be brief on Tuesday as another low pressure are will be heading in for Tuesday night and Wednesday, but this one, an elongated area, will be weakening as it moves in, with the main areas of energy really staying both northwest and south of the region. It will also be a little milder with the next system, so mix/rain is more likely than snow. And then we do it again Thursday and Thursday night as another area of energy coming along the jet stream ignites a low pressure system. This one will probably not get its act together until it gets just beyond the region, so look for rain/mix developing Thursday and probably ending as lingering snow showers Friday as we get a shot of much colder air moving into the region behind this departing system.
TODAY: Cloudy through early afternoon with a period of snow mainly northwest of a Boston-Providence line accumulating a coating to 2 inches, highest amounts in higher elevations of north central MA and southern NH and possibly interior northeastern MA, then a mix of rain/snow further southeast a bit later, changing to rain, with a mix to rain area coming northward across eastern MA while it remains mostly snow for a while to the northwest, before tapering off midday and early afternoon. Clouds may break for a little sun late day. Highs 35-43. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 22-30. Watch for patchy icy spots where snow melted but surfaces did not dry off. Wind light NW.
TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 38-45. Wind light variable.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Brief light snow to mix northwest, mix/rain southeast overnight. Lows 30-38. Wind light SE.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Spotty light mix/rain mainly morning. Highs 38-45. Wind variable up to 15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Risk of afternoon rain, nighttime mix. Lows 28-35. Highs 36-43.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Windy. Snow showers mainly morning. Lows 25-32. Highs 35-42.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 10-14)
Fair and cold December 10. The period December 11-13 will likely see some impact from 1 or 2 low pressure areas – details uncertain. Fair weather returns to end the period with another shot of cold air.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 15-19)
One or two precipitation threats from passing Pacific jet stream low pressure areas. Temperatures highly variable.

100 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

    1. Son in law drives back roads to Wellesley and said it was nasty. Lots of ambulances. Son who works in Boston said he woke up early so just headed to work to get ahead of it.

    1. One suggestion. Perhaps next time you could sort the spreadsheet
      in ascending order by the Boston Snow totals? Just a thought. 😀

    2. I like the prediction Model of WHW… Very “calculated”. Just need one more location for the 99.9 !

  16. We had a tiny whitening of the ground. Then, around 8:45, the light snow mixed with and changed to rain. At the moment, it’s sprinkling.

  18. NEXRAD radar shows it raining here. NOT! So far, it is still snowing here.
    Sure, likely to change soon, BUT it is still snow right now, despite what the silly
    radar shows. 😀

  19. About 2″ of snow in Plymouth, NH. Should taper off pretty soon. A very well-behaved system. Nice to see everything snow-covered again 🙂

        1. When it comes to Umass, it could be bitterly cold with strong winds as its right on the ocean but its raining not snowing. You can tell when you get to umass because there could be 5 or 6 inches at the JFK station on the red line and by the time you get to the campus there might be an inch. Thats within a mile, happened last year

  21. Up to 35 at home. Difficult to tell as precip is so light, but we “may” have gone over
    to a mix of rain and Snow. I still see snowflakes, but there looks to be someting
    liquid falling in between the snow flakes. Can’t be sure.

  22. It’s interesting to see, even on today’s weak system, that typical southern New England setup of where the milder air easily invades and where the colder air holds strong.

    Upper 20s to very low 30s inland and nearing 40F on the immediate coastline and SE Mass.

    I think a winter coastal front is one of my favorite New England cold season things to watch.

  24. I don’t know if it will be a true inside runner, a miller type storm or a true northeaster, but with more and more long range signs showing a bigger chunk of very cold air heading southbound through Canada and eventually into the U.S., I would hypothesize that the odds will be increasing for a powerful winter storm affecting the U.S. given an increasing temp contrast when the cold first arrives. Sometime mid month through the 3rd week of December.

  27. i HATE Colorado lows as much as Cutters! Hmm wonder why? BECAUSE
    they usually become Cutters! that’s why!

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2016120512&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=276

    Long range on the GFS shows it to be extremely active later this month.
    With the main cold banked up over more Western sections and the inter mountain
    area, as the GFS depicts, I strongly suspect most if NOT ALL activity become
    LAKES CUTTERS or at best INSIDE RUNNERS. Perhaps we log a bit of front end and or back end snow from these, but the bulk of any precipitation would be RAIN.

    The only good thing I can say is that it is a long way off and perhaps things will change.

    1. All the way out to hour 384, the 12Z GFS depicts one LAKES CUTTER after another after another with all of the cold locked up way to our West. YIKES!
      I can’t stand that! I can only hope that the mean trough moves Eastward later
      in the month or early in January. IF not, it will be a lost snow season to be sure.

      1. If we were going to get a good amount of snow it would happen late January through early march (season half of the season)

  29. Up to 3″ here. Liquid equivalent of .20″, so ratios around 15:1. Been in the 20s all day here.

    Active pattern continues, and a predominantly cold one as well. Not sure about snowy though, especially for SNE. Seems like we’re heading into the classic pattern where cold air dominates, but we see storm-induced warm-ups with a mean storm track continuing to be through the Lakes. So plenty of precipitation chances especially beyond next weekend, but odds favor more wet than white.

  30. According to the 12Z Euro, pretty chilly around these parts this Friday and Saturday.
    Model run is still cooking at this time.

    Already I can see something brewing to head right through the Gap between
    one departing cold High and a newly arriving High. Oh and where is that Gap?
    Well, right up through the Lakes! Where else would it be?

    1. Euro’s 1st Cutter passes WELL North and West of us on 12/12.

      Cold prior to this, but a warm up as it passes North and West of us.
      Hmmm where did I see this theme before? Perhaps in a previous post
      by WxWatcher? I dunno. 😀

        1. You Can smell it? 😀 Much better nose than mine.

          But, I agree.

          Just hoping the mean trough shifts Eastward. We shall see.

          Our good friend Dr. Cohen should be speaking soon. 😀

  31. I don’t know why, BUT ever since the upgrade, the Euro runs are taking MUCH longer to complete. Previously the run was completely done around 2PM ish. Now, the run is
    not complete until 2:30 to 3PMish.

  32. Yup, 1st Euro Cutter passes to the North and then next Cold High starts to move
    in cooling us off once again. More wasted cold, except allowing for snow making
    up North, only to turn to MUSH with the next cutter and freeze solid into
    BOILER PLATE!!!

  33. My Rain gauge shows a total of 0.16 inch for today. Not sure how much of that
    was the snow or not. When I went home for lunch, it was raining pretty good. 😀

    It looks like at home we received between 1/2 and 3/4 inch of snow in total. The rest
    rain on top of that.

  34. The Euro Shows the Arctic Highs being centered on the Alberta/Saskatchewan borders
    in Canada, just prior to spilling over the border into the US. That is TOO far West.
    Like to see it at least 500 or even 1,000 miles to the East of there.

  35. Well, for what it’s worth, the early part of my winter forecast still looks OK.

    No major changes to the pattern that was outlined in the outlook that I can pick out.

    Glad I went for the sun breaking out before setting today. Have some here now. 🙂

  39. Any suggestions out there for a decent Weather Cam?

    The only one I could locate is From Ambient Weather and it lists for $129.95.
    Sounds OK to me, BUT it needs to be powered by an electrical outlet, which I am
    not a fan of for outdoor applications. I don’t want outdoor extension cords hanging
    off of the house and looking ugly.

    Thanks

        1. TK, will that ridge really verify and if so, is it going to be long lasting for weeks on end? Hope not.

    3. Not consistent with a Pacific Jet at all. 😀 😀 😀

      That downright SUCKS! BUT, I am not surprised in the least.

        1. I had a sangria recipe that called for it this summer. I was surprised how sweet it is. I guess I am old 🙂

        1. Excellent point. I was very disappointed in his write up. Honestly, I expected more from him. I think that TK could school him.

          1. Actually, his temperature in Siberia, AO, etc etc hypothesis isnt some mysterious thing he csme up with. It’s been around longer than what he would like you to believe. To his defense somewhat, there has been a lot of cold, that like I’ve said before, there’s been no way to bring it over the pole. And st this point, the PV looks to strengthen and stay locked up at higher latitudes. It’ll weaken again in the late winter/early spring like it always does when the winds reverse and set up the spring/summer pattern. That will ship a little cold south like it always does and if there’s moisture around, it’ll snow. Then he’ll say his forecast verified when the reality is the last SSW always takes place around the same time every year.
            I dunno, he a good met, I guess, but I don’t live and die by every pronouncement from on high.
            I just think that SE ridge will be persistent enough, coupled with lack of moisture, and sporadic cold, that will hold the snow totals down.

  46. Tk I was wondering do I need to worry about a call in tonight as its colder and damp out . Oh how I hate these questions but I respect winter for those here as you all know I hate it. We did end up salting from 7-10.

    1. Sorry I didn’t see this til too late…
      There may be some call-ins to treat for black ice.

  48. TK alluded to it, RE: the research world. Let’s face it, Dr. Cohen, while surely a great guy with a great mind, basically has no idea what’s going on right now. Most of it just comes down to the general lack of predictability beyond 7-10 days out. A lot of research oriented mets have come up with all kinds of correlations lately that seem to be able to explain why a certain season was the way it was. But when they try to use it the next time, the relationship is much weaker or breaks down entirely, especially when it really is just one single factor being used. Snow cover, polar vortex behavior, SST analogs. Just a few baskets I’ve seen well meaning forecasters put all their eggs in to make predictions on this winter. Same thing happens for the spring severe weather season or hurricane season. Hence the reason no two seasons are alike. And hence a big reason why I hope to keep my career focused on operational short and medium range forecasting, because with that we at least have a fighting chance.

    Not to say research meteorology is useless, far from it. We’ve made big strides. But it’s a very inexact science, and many of these newer seasonal forecasting methods will need years or decades of testing before we find out how viable they are. They’re not all as clear cut as “Super El Nino= warm New England winter”.

    1. I agree with everything you said. At least in my business, I can test a hypothesis in a few days, weeks, or months with a few well designed experiments. In the long term forecast world, a hypothesis might take decades to test.

  49. I think we’ll have more nickel and dime events to get the final snow totals (whatever the final totals are). Well timed clippers, 2-4″ deals, maybe a wound up Miller B for JPDave. Whatever happens, I do hope it’s more front loaded. These back loaded winters we’ve had lately are for the birds. I’d rather see some Christmas snow thru January and February then done by St Patrick’s Day with some 50’s by April 1.

    1. Are you sitting down? If not, you might want to.

      I agree. I will take snow any time. I will take any weather any time. But I love tradition as well and am not good at waiting so a front loaded winter sounds wonderful

  51. I have had it with the attack on the research aspects of the Earth sciences, cut it out. Why is it that when a physics or chemist makes a hypothesis and then put it into what he does, wrong or right its ok but once someone in the Earth sciences particularly climate change sciences there are so many attacks. Cut the crap.

    1. we only know about 40% of physics (matter) yet we are supposed to let physicists alone and just believe them. .

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