Tuesday Forecast

71 Comments

7:27AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 6-10)
Watch for patches of black ice this morning! Otherwise, a decent day today with high pressure providing sunshine with a seasonable chill. The next system arrives late tonight and as stated in the previous update will be a split system with one low north of the Great Lakes and another passing well south of New England Wednesday, leaving us in the middle with a little light precipitation, but it may be just enough in the form of snow to create a bit of a slick road situation especially over the interior prior to the Wednesday morning commute. Still looks like Thursday’s threat evolves mainly after it goes by, so just looking for some rain to snow showers as colder air arrives. The shot of cold air will be more pronounced Friday and Saturday as we get a piece of early-season Arctic air pulled out of Canada.
TODAY: Sunshine, then increasing clouds later. Highs 38-45. Wind light variable.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Brief light snow to mix northwest, mix/rain southeast overnight. Lows 30-38. Wind light SE.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Spotty light mix/rain mainly morning. Highs 38-45. Wind variable up to 15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Risk of rain to snow showers. Lows 28-35. Highs 36-43.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Windy. Snow showers mainly morning. Lows 25-32. Highs 35-42.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Windy. Lows 15-23. Highs 27-34.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 11-15)
Next storm threat comes later December 11 through early December 13. This may be rain, mix, or snow, depending on low pressure track. Details to be worked out. Another system may threaten December 14 or 15.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 16-20)
One or two precipitation threats from passing Pacific jet stream low pressure areas. Temperatures highly variable.

71 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  1. Is the threat for Sunday/Monday small like yesterday’s, or possibly more substantial?
    Hardly any snow left on the ground at work in Dedham, but a full sugar coating remaining in my yard in Natick, and even some left on the driveway.

  3. Thank you, TK.

    Still a frozen coating here and it looks lovely.

    26.8 with brilliant sunshine and frosty blue sky.

  4. On average Boston receives its first 1″ of snow around Dec. 11. Last year it was Jan. 17.

    Will we be closer to average this time TK?

  5. I do not know who would see my comments from the other blog involving Dr cohen. I think this is an extremely important topic that needs to be talked about.
    1. It is indeed research that is on going and will be for a while. He is in the second experimental phase as I call it. he did the first part doing his research etc, now he is implementing it in forecasts.
    This goes on in all types of sciences, but it seems that in the research aspects of any earth and climate sciences we are on a tighter leash than any other field. Physics, chemistry Geology, Meteorology (short to middle) and some aspects of Biology (medical)
    If something does not come to be it was disproven, just like any other type of science yet people are critical and say the entire thing is wrong if its related to earth science/climate science.

    For example there was a 15 year study the overall study and findings were totally correct besides for one little piece saying we will not have arctic sea ice by a certain time period.

    In lets say physics (which we actually only know about 40% of what all matter is we do not know the other stuff.) they do experiments, go through the scientific method, etc etc, If they are disproven, not one really bats an eye.

    Its called double standards. With out research we do not have what we need to know. Without research we do not understand the earth or space. etc etc. I am certain in one of the most unpredictable fields Meteorology you understand things can be wrong. Please stop attacking the research fields of Enviornmental/climate/ earth sciences.

    1. Good comment with a perspective from the other side of the coin. I understand what you are saying and think it is important for folks to hear both sides. I’m not a fan of Dr Cohen’s but (and it is a big but) I am always hesitant to be critical of folks when we have no idea of the full story. That should not come as a surprise to anyone on here 🙂

      1. I certainly was not putting down his research. I find that
        most admirable. I was complaining about his constant hedging
        about what might happen. ALL I am asking is that he make a decision on how he thinks it will play out and tell us that.
        If it’s wrong, it’s wrong. Learn from it. But geez this wavering back and forth is pathetic. It reminds me of an old “Little Rascals” episode where Spanky is a golf caddie and is trying to tell the golfer which direction the upcoming putt will take. I can’t find a video reference to it at the moment.

        1. Be certain that I was only referring to me being hesitant to criticize and not implying or finding fault with anyone else 🙂

  6. Good morning and thank you TK.

    So far, I am not impressed by anything I am seeing down the road. I am hopeful
    things will change.

    0Z Euro has “some” snow for us (about 4 inches or so) along about Dec 12.
    We shall see about that. 😀 😀 😀

    GFS has a system to our North and thus NO snow for that time period.

  8. Is Boston looking at Another situation tomorrow morning early like we saw yesterday morning with salting needed . Thanks .

  9. Thanks TK.
    Looks like a repeat of yesterday morning with around an inch of snow for my area in the overnight hours. I hate these little wimpy snowfalls> If this happens it will be the fifth one so far that either has had half inch or the most 1.5 inches back on November 21st.

  10. Matt,
    I thought I’d just stay out of it, but alas I can’t.
    I’ve observed you have a huge blind spot when it comes to questioning manmade climate change. Your reaction to others is borderline, nay it is, hostile when it comes to that discussion and differing opinions. But that’s neither here nor there for THIS discussion. And, no one here is singling out earth science for criticism. If it seems that way it’s because it’s a weather blog. I could come on here and question hypothesis’ relating to cancer biology, stem cells, and immune surveillance. But no one would care much here nor understand it because this blog isn’t populated with biologists. But trust me. At biology meetings there are all kinds of knock down drag outs over stuff you have never heard of. In the popular press, yes, you do see earth science questioned more than other science just because it’s more relatable. Everyone can observe the weather and chimes in with an opinion, informed or otherwise. There’s just as much questioning in other disciplines by the scientists in the field, but the average Joe on the street isn’t exposed to the nuances of experimental biology or physics.
    Nobody “attacked” Cohn, either. Judah’s AO/Siberian temp/snowcover hypothesis has ZERO to do with climate change, so we’ll just leave that part alone. The point a few of us were trying to get across is that he CAN fit, dare I say twist, the observed outcomes to his hypothesis. At times, he claims he’s correct in his forecasts, but the mechanisms that got to a particular outcome are completely different. In other words, he’s “correct” but for the wrong reason. In science, when you make those kinds of claims, it’s really really bad form. He also has a huge ego. That’s not really a bad thing, either. A lot of what makes a scientist good is an ego. It’s how to keep it in check is the key. Again, questioning a hypothesis and/or using critical thinking skills to hold another scientist accountable is not an attack. It’s just doing what scientist do.

    1. 1. I have no blind spot I have looked at several points of view and have picked the one that has the most backing.
      2. all sciences change. hypothesis are disproven and changed/altered its part of the scientific method
      3. Climate science/Earth science is a big picture which many people fail to understand.
      4. With my comments I am stating I believe people in general put Earth/climate sciences to a strict wrong or right and using Cohen as an example. You can not be in between. That is why I stated those other fields of science.
      5. Sorry if I sound Hostile to you. I do put both sides into perspective, I hear the other side but I have the right to say that is stupid and state why I think its so.
      6 we also have enough evidence to support that climate change is indeed human induced. There are so many factors that say we should not even be warming but cooling. There are techniques (yes all have their flaws) but put them togeather they all say the same information. I believe there is only .5% of scientists that believe climate change does not exist or the 2% that does not believe climate change is not human induced. That is more scientists believing in human induced climate change than people believe the Big bang.

  11. My question regarding Dr Cohen’s blog is how far back does the Siberian snow cover correlation go …..

    Whether from natural variability or climate change, the variables in the atmosphere compared to even a microscopic 30 years ago, in my opinion, are so different. I’d say atmospheric heat is much higher, sea ice is much lower than just even 30 years ago.

    In skimming his blogs, it does seem as though he does address these changing variables and tries to account for them. But, if you believe the earth’s climate is different now than x years ago when you developed a Siberian snow cover correlation, how can you truly get a confident feel for what the big picture of the atmosphere will be when you haven’t seen it unfold under the always changing present atmospheric conditions ….

    And, I wonder if that kind of explains the multiple unknown possibilities that he describes going forward ……

    1. The correlation has not been around long in terms of his use of it. However, it has been considered before as far back as the 1980s by at the time my soon to be mentor…

        1. I meant…at that time. The guy that was my boss when I was there was using Siberian snow as a predicting tool before I worked there. 🙂

            1. I won’t say his name, but he was very well known and well respected in the agricultural forecasting community, and the weather community in general. 🙂

              He passed away a few years ago.

  12. Interesting tweet from Pivotal Weather We’ve decided to remove snowfall beyond 240hrs since data frequency decreases and estimating snowfall becomes less accurate.

  13. I believe blind spots exist on both sides of the discussion and not just on Matt’s. For some really odd reason that I will never understand, the line for global climate change is drawn along party lines. I do not mean to insult anyone when I say I find that preposterous.

    We have facts. The facts are that we are warming. The 1990s were consistently warmer than the 1980s. The 2000s were warmer yet again and the 2010s are once again warmer. Four decades may not be a lot compared to the amount of time man has been on earth but nonetheless common sense dictates that it is a warming trend.

    That facts are that man has polluted air, water and land on this earth.

    What we do with those facts seems to be the point where we fall apart. To me, and again, to me only, that makes no sense.

    I firmly believe that our destruction of this earth has altered it. However, it truly does not matter whether one believes it has influenced the climate. What matters is we stop polluting and we stop now. If it has an influence on climate, then it is a win win. If it does not influence climate, then we have cleaned up our mess and that cannot be termed anything other than a win.

    The problem is I have said this repeatedly and we (as a world people not we on this blog) simply continue to debate it. Time is running out and we are playing political games. With that I admit to having a huge blind spot. It is beyond belief that every single person on this plant would not understand we absolutely have to do something.

    hehehe – and I was going to stay out of this too. Blackstone…..we did great, didn’t we 😉

    1. I’m not getting into the global warming thing. 🙂
      That wasn’t my purpose. My response was to show no one was attacking Cohen, per se.

      1. I knew you were not getting into global warming. It was my choice, however, to do that since I know and understand why it bothers Matt.

        I do not think Cohen was being attacked. I did see it as criticism, however. Before that is taken the wrong way, I did not say I do not see what you and others mean about perhaps padding both sides. I just have trouble, as I said, critiquing a person when I have no idea of the back story. To me it serves no purpose and can really never be entirely accurate. To me.

        1. Any scientist that publishes their work, and expounds on it in a public forum, invites critique of the work. Its what makes the scientific method and the science community as a whole, work. Non scientists have a difficult time with the concept

          1. Perhaps. However, how do you critique fairly if you have no idea of the background or mechanics or reasoning. My husband was a chemist and scientist and would agree. I am a non-scientist so base my view on other criteria 🙂

            1. Sorry – I should have finished the sentence. My husband would have agreed with my comment. He set many ANSI standards, for example. They changed over the years. His would was critiqued by experts in the field who understood the process – as it should have been.

              Or do you know more about Dr. Cohen’s process, techniques, etc. than I assume. Assuming is never a good thing so I’m curious.

  14. Global warming…or is it cooling now?…is a hoax. It’s a “theory” designed so you can’t win. Seem warmer out? Ha…global warming. Seem colder out? Well that’s global warming too. So which is it? Hence the name change to climate change (unless they have changed it since then). However, climate is always changing so you can always point to instances to prove your point. We know it’s been much warmer in the past and much colder…not sure why people can’t accept cycles. The last 500 years are meaningless in any pattern identification. We simply don’t know.

    1. I’m afraid no one can say for certainty that it is a hoax. The fact, WeatherWiz, that the temperatures on earth have warmed for four decades now should be considered. And it may well be cyclical. We have no way of knowing. I did note, to your credit, that you did not say we have not polluted. May I assume that you feel we should do what we can to undo the pollution we have created?

    2. I do not think it is a hoax. There is some truth to what you say, but one thing
      is certain: Since the industrial revolution man has been spewing crap into the
      atmosphere. To say that has had zero effect is foolish.

      Therefore, why not take care of the only planet we have.

    3. Nah, it’s not a hoax. There’s absolutely no incentive for anyone to be pushing the theory when it isn’t true. Think green energy companies are doing it? Nope, there would not be a consensus on this issue if they were behind it. Oil companies have much more money, if this was a hoax they’d have used their money to “convince” scientists that global warming isn’t real. Instead, they’re starting to shift resources to clean energy so they can be the ones dominating that market. And if you think China did it, ask yourself, what’s in it for them?

  15. Red Sox get Chris Sale. I think right now there the team to beat in AL East. Got to love the top three pitchers of that staff your a Red Sox fan Sale, Porcello, and Price.

  16. Ok, I have now looked at the 12Z Euro and the 12Z GFS.

    Sorry, I just don’t see any snow chances for at least 10 days and If you believe
    the GFS, at least 16 days, which brings us awfully close to Christmas.

    1. There may be a chance or 2 up North, but down here. Nope.

      Not sure much at all happens tonight into tomorrow AM.
      Looking like the action splits North and South and leaves us with
      virtually nothing, if not nothing.

  17. Looking at the radar you would think we would get a good dose of precipitation but not in the cards for us.

          1. Different story west, for sure, at least to start. But they’d probably have mixed later except mountains.

            1. Yup. But it is all moot anyway.

              I keep looking, but I just don’t see any
              snow in the near future. I’ll keep looking
              for the unexpected, but I just don’t see it.

              Perhaps we can get a wave on a trailing front to move up into newly arrived cold air. Oh wait a minute, that isn’t going to happen. Should anything develop on a front, it will moved due East OTS. 😀

              1. The pattern is behaving exactly as forecast. Not seeing any big changes. That said, all it takes is one little see-saw tilt at just the right time and you will have your snowstorm.

                1. I understand that, but it’s not there at the moment.
                  As long as things get cooking starting around the 20th or so. Honestly, climatologically speaking, it is still TOO early to be thinking about any serious snow around these parts.

                  The earliest biggie I can remember for the Boston Area (I am not talking about well inland like Worcester) was around the 10th or 11th of December in 1960. I was living in Millis and we got 14 inches. Don’t remember Logan’s total but it must have been close to that. We had a major arctic outbreak prior to the storm. All of lakes and ponds were frozen and safe for skating. I don’t know what the ocean temp was, but all during the storm it was in the mid-teens at my house. So it can happen, but not very often. 😀

  18. The ocean temperature in Mass bay is still at 50.4 Degrees on the 6th of December.
    A tad warm I would say.

  19. JPDave – there were several December 9 storms. I’ll need help with the years. 2005 and then in mid 1990s. I know as far inland as Watertown got those but not sure about Boston proper. December 9 seems to have an attraction for storms. There was one on Dec 9 1978 complete with Thunder snow in Boston.

      1. Sorry – read wrong. I didn’t see earliest. I saw latest.

        I do not remember the 1960 one you are referring to. I am certain I was out building a fort, however!!

    1. Thanks for the update, heard they were doing this, but was not sure when they were going to do it.

  22. 35 years ago today was the ending of the first of the “book end storms” from winter 1981-1982. The storm started on Saturday December 5, late in the day, as a low that was forecast to bring a few inches of snow to Cape Cod and flurries to the rest of eastern MA suddenly backed in and dumped 10-18 inches of snow that started out sticky then quickly turned into a wind-blown powder into Sunday December 6. The wind was north to northwest for a good part of the storm.

    2. Remember that one well. We had gone out to dinner with 2 other couples in the same car. On the way home while trying to ascend a hill, the car did a complete
      360. I was not driving. If I were, I doubt this would have happened.

      Luckily no other vehicles were around and we just kept on going like
      nothing happened.

      This is the famous Bob Copeland storm. I read an article by him (in the boston Globe, I believe) where he said he was flying out to some sort of conference before the storm arrived and he stated in the article that
      he KNEW Boston and the surrounding area was in for it as he watched
      the approach of the clouds. Wish I had access to that article. I think it
      was in the Globe Magazine section.

      2 days later, John Lennon was shot and killed. Very Sad day.

  23. Also, this is the 13th anniversary of the 2003 December storm in which Boston received 16.9 inches of snow.

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