Friday Forecast

70 Comments

7:33AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 9-13)
First, the cold and wind today into Saturday. The cold lingers Sunday as an area of moisture approaches from the west but runs into dry air. Clouds will increase but the snow risk will be limited initially and have to wait for the main push of moisture with approaching low pressure by Monday, which will bring snow at least at first. The question is where the mix/change line ends up. For now will go for it pushing northward into much of the region but it may end up colder and further south. So Monday’s forecast is currently low confidence.
TODAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 34-42. Wind W 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 16-25. Wind NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chill below 10 at times.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 27-34. Wind NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts, diminishing in the afternoon.
SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of very light snow in the afternoon. Lows 13-21. Highs 30-38.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Snow likely then rain/mix line pushing northward at least part-way through the region. Lows 26-34. Highs 32-42 north to south.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers. Windy. Lows 15-23. Highs 30-38.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 14-18)
Next system brings a chance of snow/mix/rain December 14 depending on track. Snow showers possible and much colder December 15-16. Fair and cold December 17. Next system brings a precipitation threat December 18.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 19-23)
No major changes to the overall pattern. Period likely starts and ends somewhat unsettled but this pattern makes it difficult to time and figure out track of systems more than a couple days in advance so much fine tuning to be done here.

70 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  2. can anyone post the snow map of the euro… I can not tell how the system monday passes the region as it ends up in the gulf of Maine.

    1. A bit later I will. Mobile now.
      For Monday the euro does not deliver. OnKY about 2 inches boston. More North and west

        2. Some of us here (myself included) who live and/or work in Boston do care Matt. NNE always gets its more than fair share of snow.

          1. I work in Boston and go to school in Boston, but i already knew Boston will probably get next to nothing from this. More interested on how northern New england does. (Ski season on its way)

            1. Yup, I knew that. That is why I said obviously more snow up North for Skiing.
              Even a bit more snow for Wa Wa

    1. I am wondering if the above isn’t close to the final solution. We shall see what
      the other 12Z runs have to say. Now, I am NOT liking this. It’s fine for up
      North and many people like it that way, but not I.

      If we only get a dusting or coating and then go to rain, I will be quite disappointed, but honestly, I am expecting that.

      Here’s hoping for a surprise.

      1. I agree! Holidays in Halifax event is tomorrow and it would have been nice to have a little snow on the ground to give it that nice Christmas feel. At least the chill will be in the air.

  7. Thanks TK. And I echo the Happy Friday! Weekend before finals week up here.

    Monday storm: Will not be a big snow producer in SNE, especially along and south of the Mass Pike (gradient will be more W-E than NW/SE). Even to the north, I’m not sure how big a deal this will be. The system itself looks to be pretty wimpy. Still, north of the MA/NH border, at this early stage, 3-6″ looks like a decent bet, highest amounts probably central or northern NH/VT. 12z NAM is probably okay on placement of most features, but overdoing QPF as usual.

      1. Snow map for next system 12/14-12/15. RAIN along the coastal plain with SNOW inland.

        http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016120912&time=48&var=ASNOWI&hour=147

        http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2016120912&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=135

        850mb temps are OK, so I believe this becomes a boundary layer issue due to the toasty ocean temperature. We shall see.

        Not a big storm, but enough to be interesting.

        1. Agreed ….. Any reasonable, multi hour wind event off the ocean and the boundary layer near the immediate coast is toast.

  12. 12Z GFS depicts a Huge storm crashing onto the coast of California around 12/16-12/17.

    Not sure what impact it would have on us down the road, but something to monitor.

    1. Looks like it kind of splits and breaks apart in the inter-mountain region.

      I suspect all or part of it reorganizes as it comes out into the plains states.
      Where it goes from there? Who knows. Probably through the Lakes. 😀

  14. Looking like the system Wednesday/Thursday could be bigger. Kind of like the Sunday night to Monday event is like the first act.

  15. It was mentioned here a week or two ago, but today is the anniversary of the incredible snow “bomb” of 2005…snow falls of 3-4″ an hour, 85-95 wind gusts…thunder snow.

    I remember leaving the high school parking in Middleborough at around 2:15 in a complete whiteout hearing the sounds of the pine trees on campus cracking and falling because of the fierce winds and not knowing where the trees were.

    It took me two and a half hours to get home to Taunton that day. Kids were stranded at the elementary schools because the buses were ordered off the roads because of the severe weather.

    Hope everyone used the extra second of afternoon daylight well yesterday!!!!

    Have a great weekend, all!

    1. I remember it well. It took Mac six hours to go from Watertown to Framingham. I believe it is the anniversary of at least two and possibly three other major storms.

      One was Dec 9, 1978. It had rained all day and then around 4:00 turned to snow. There was better than a foot that came down very quickly. By 9:00 at night Mac and I were watching thunder snow over the Charles River from the Hyatt in Cambridge. It was our wedding day 🙂

    3. Yup. Loved it as my office shook with the violent thunder.
      I live but 3-4 miles from here and it took me 2 hours to get home.
      When I arrived at home, the snow was just stopping. The street was
      not plowed and I had to RAM the Mustang down the whole length
      of the street.
      Thank you sir, may I have another.

      1. I was in my home office on a conference call and at one point could not see the house across the street. My soon to be son in law measured just under six inches in one hour. It was awesome. And I love your last sentence!!

  16. Good afternoon,

    Well, here is the 12z Euro snow map.

    http://imgur.com/a/hid8H

    I watched each panel and the 850MB freezing line stayed below freezing
    the whole run. Farthest North I saw was from a line roughly just South of Hartford to providence to Southern Plymouth North of the canal. Did make it North of
    Fall River and New Bedford.

    925 MB (about 2,600 feet) did make it above Zero to just N & W of Boston)

    precipitation type was never rain as it showed snow to a mix for boston.

    Think there was a boundary layer issue going on here? 😀 😀 😀

    Monday PM temps at the surface made it to mid-upper 30s.

    1. I’m guessing the 850 mb temps are staying below that 0C threshold because as the system is approaching, it is weakening and thus, the winds at 850 mb aren’t strong enough to advect too much milder air northward.

      In a way, I think its the perfect early winter scenario for getting snow into Boston, maybe even into Marshfield.

      A weak system that has enough warm advection for precip generation but not too strong as to warm a mid part of the layer. And a weak system as to keep the surface winds off of the ocean fairly light.

  17. Trying to remind myself not to get too caught up on the run-to-run long range placement of surface features ….. With that said, I do think some consistent themes show up in the long range, days 8 through 10.

    Keep seeing persistent signs of a strong ridge off of the US west coast. Also seeing signs of the southeast ridge and a very strong temp gradient sitting just to our south and west.

    I kind of think these 2 features, their amplitude and placement, will go a long way in determining what we see in days 6 through 10 actually happen. And, I doubt the models will have those 2 features better resolved until another 4 to 6 days from now.

  20. I do not believe everything is lining up for SNE snows.

    At least it won’t be toasty warm most of the time. 😀

  21. 18Z NAM has changeover between 8 and 10 AM all over SNE. RAPID changeover.

    total snow

    Economic Mobility Pathways, Inc.

    2. Timing anything but good. Not only rush hour but buses will be enroute to schools.

      Haven’t seen blackstone here. I womdered if they pretreat in this area. I’ve seen sanders but no salt although my viewing are is limited

  22. Vicki, I echo what ChaseCarry said above.

    Thank you for your forecast, TK. I am wondering if mets have scientific criteria for terms such as “frigid.” It’s been bandied about quite a bit in recent days by forecasters, as in “frigid air is coming … in waves.” From what I can discern SNE will not be experiencing anything out of the ordinary in terms of frigidness over the coming two weeks. In fact, the weather pattern appears to be more conducive to slightly below normal temperatures around here. Hence, not frigid. Certainly not December 1980 frigid.

      1. High temps in the 20s and 30s is NOT frigid. Cold, yes, Frigid, hardly.

        When we stay in the single numbers and perhaps we could
        expand that to the teens, then I think we can talk about
        frigid.

  23. 18Z GFS has about the same timing for the changeover Monday AM and has BACKED OFF on snowtotals in SNE.

        1. Yes it was. Sorry I didn’t get to find the map. I got hijacked by my daughters to go out for a surprise dinner in Mendon. It was a lovely way to honor Mac’s and my anniversary. Not to mention lots of laughing and excellent food 🙂

  25. Well I made it this far without turning on the oil heat thanks to my AC heat pump. I think tonight though I am doomed…once we get below 28 degrees the system struggles. It was a good run!

    1. The kids have been using the minisplit and some oil. I have no idea why but only turn oil on for perhaps 30 minutes a day and not every day. But you reminded me to check the amount of oil. With a new house/oil company, I worry about how reliable their auto delivery is

      1. I would for sure. I had one company that filled it on time, every time…the place I use now stinks. They let it get down to like 10% which isn’t good.

  26. I believe that the 12Z Euro is an accurate depiction of what will likely occur in SNE on Monday; however, I think the snow totals are a tad too robust in central and western locales. My early guesstimate is 2-3 inches just to the west, northwest and southwest of Boston with an ultimate change to rain and several inches north and west of 128. The rain snow line likely makes it to the masspike before halting.

  27. On MSN “Polar Vortex is coming”

    I guess it’s now just part of American Consciousness. Sigh……

  28. I know people who were wearing full out winter gear back in October. They asked how i could be in shorts and a t-shirt when it was 50 out. Its their first year here and I said, Oh just wait till winter.

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