Saturday Forecast

102 Comments

2:47AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 10-14)
Active pattern upcoming as the fast-moving Pacific jet stream pattern continues, but now sharing itself with some colder air pressing southward out of Canada, which makes things a little more interesting. After a fair and cold Saturday and most of Sunday, the next plume of Pacific moisture will arrive with a elongated wave of low pressure Sunday night into Monday. The question continues to be where the snow/mix/rain zones will be, and the best call at this point is to go with snow to start in most areas except mix South Coast Sunday night, then the mix/rain area moving northward to at least the Mass Pike area and Boston-Providence corridor during Monday morning, but how fast and to what position will determine how much snow falls. For now will lean to mainly snow for the duration in the I 495 belt north of the Mass Pike with the mix/rain zone getting into the I 95 corridor toward the end of the event, with more rain further southeast. All of this will be out of here by Monday evening in time for an 8:30PM kick off in Foxboro of Monday Night Football between the Patriots and Ravens. Tuesday will be fair and chilly as a small high pressure area crosses the region. Wednesday will bring the next risk of precipitation but at this point it looks as if it may end up being two systems that never really get too involved with each other, one passing south and the other to the north, so while it is still several days off just going with a risk of snow showers for now.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 27-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts morning, diminishing afternoon.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 9-15 outlying areas, 16-24 elsewhere. Wind light variable.
SUNDAY: Sunshine fading behind increasing clouds. Highs 28-36. Wind light variable.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Thickening overcast. Snow develops overnight except mix South Coast. Lows 22-30. Wind light NE to E.
MONDAY: Overcast. Precipitation morning to early afternoon will be mainly snow I 495 north of the Mass Pike and northwestward from there but may end as brief mix near I 495, snow transitioning to mix and ending as mix and rain I 95 belt mainly Boston to Providence corridor, mix turning to rain immediate coast from Boston south including Cape Cod. Preliminary snow accumulation estimate: coating to 1 inch coastline and Cape Cod, 1-3 inches Boston to Providence corridor, 3-6 inches I 495 belt mainly north of the Mass Pike and northwestward from there. Highs 33-43, mildest Cape Cod. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-30. Highs 32-40.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Risk of snow showers. Lows 20-28. Highs 32-40.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 15-19)
Confidence remains lower than average overall but am pretty sure of a blast of cold air early in the period and a storm threat around the weekend of December 17-18.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 20-24)
Another storm threat may occur about the middle of the period but again highly subject to change based on the fast-flowing pattern and medium range guidance difficulty in the solution of possible systems.

102 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  5. Euro getting more and more interesting.

    with snow events Monday, Thursday and Saturday with Monday and Saturday going over to RAIN.

    Guidance continues to point to a fairly rapid change to Rain Monday AM. I really don’t
    hold out much hope for the snow to last. I fully expect Boston to come in with
    1 inch or less even. We shall see.

    Waiting on the 12Z guidance. 😀

    Heading out soon to get a crap load of packages mailed.

    Later hopefully heading to Kennebunkport, Me for dinner at Pier 77. Yes a bit of a drive for dinner, but it is a big birthday celebration for a friend.

  6. Thanks TK.
    Going to get the Christmas tree for my mom and stepdad’s house today. What a difference from a year ago getting the tree when we were in short sleeves and a fleece. The warmest temperature we ever got the tree was in 1998 when it was 75 degrees and we were in shorts. No shorts or shortsleeves today but rather the heavy winter weather gear.

  7. Thank you TK

    Was glad to see winds not as in evidence tonight. But temp alone may halt our plans. We were heading to Fatima. Trying to keep a four month old warm enough may not be possible. We shall see. There will be other days.

  8. Forgot how entertaining channel 7 is with snow. Blog last night had me at 1-2″ and said any updates will show less snow as the system is moving too fast. So then they release a map and I am in the 2-4″ zone ha.

    1. I suspect it will change again as TK said low confidence. Eric had a snow map last night that changed in a matter of hours. Ans the daily forecast bar had just rain Monday. I think they have to report and keep up as best they can.

      On the oil front…glad I saw your comment from yesterday about checking oil. I’d already forgotten this am….sigh. We still have 3/4. We had an oil delivery last week of October. It will take a bit to figure what the house uses and your advice is good since we do not know oil co either

        1. Tk best guess time for Boston so I can expect the call . Thanks . First Saturday off in quite awhile .

        2. I suspect they answer to the dictates of management. But then since I have no idea, I’m neutral. The bottom line is if a person is not smart enough to know how quickly the weather changes this far out, me thinks they have a slight problem. It feels to me as if people are hanging more and more of media rather than using their own God given intelligence

      2. Ideally you want to fill it when it’s 25% full…if it’s too low and they fill it up it will kick up a lot of the sludge on the bottom of the tank and can clog the filter or oil line (this is more important the older your tank is).

        1. Exactly. The good thing is my son in law manages a plumbing and heating company so he can do all the service. He was also the one who installed the minisplit for a song 🙂

  9. Thanks TK. Looking more like I’ll be in for a moderate snow event up here; most guidance in the 4-7″ range. It’ll just come down to how much juice we end up with; I don’t think p-type will be much of an issue here. QPF still looks like only around half an inch, give or take. Maybe an inch of snow for Boston just from lingering cold air out front? We bottomed out at 17F in Plymouth, NH last night. Brrr.

    1. If I had to bet and I don’t, I’d say Boston falls SHORT of making it’s first
      inch Monday AM. We shall see, but I think it goes to rain too quickly.
      The only way Boston makes it, is for some reason the initial WAA is more
      robust than expected and drops a quick thump of snow prior to the changeover. 😀

  11. These types of system always depend on 2nd track formation, if it’s far enough south the cold air always hangs on longer than the models forecast. I think we get an inch in Boston. EURO also has some decent lift at the start so the snow should be moderate to start with so I think we squeeze about 2-3 inches imo before a chance of rain moves in. I also think Tom eluded to this yesterday, being a weaker system like the EURO shows we won’t get a surge of warm air from the ocean. The warm air has to come from the south and that always takes longer.

  12. EURO and CMC hold on to the colder much longer than GFS/NAM/RPM, and my instincts tell me that the cold will hold on longer for sure and the front end thump will be vigorous enough to achiever the numbers.

    1. its out to 168 hour
      I am wondering what its showing for snow for Monday and any other storms afterwards. can you post the maps

      1. I don’t know what the hold up is.
        No notice either. However, while checking notices,
        I did see that they FIXED a bug in their snow and ice calculations.
        That is interesting.

  16. 12z ECMWF snow tool at 10:1 and you are not doing better than a storm aveqe of 10:1 with this storm.

    1″ Boston
    2″ 495 / LWM
    3″ ORH
    4″ CEF
    Less than an 1″ Taunton Providence
    1-2″ BDL

    Those numbers are not bad.

    I would slgihtly more 495 north LWM area, less CEF area

  17. Comments…

    Agree with JMA. I am in fair agreement with ECMWF #’s for a change. This close in I think it has a decent idea, but would also make the same adjustments mentioned above.

    Strong feeling the Wed/Thu disturbance is really just the “zone” in between storms to the south and well to the north and will really just consist of an air mass change with some snow showers from various energy spikes.

    Any threat next weekend is so far out there, in this pattern anything is on the table except a Gulf Wave coastal storm. Looking at model #’s for snow this far out is a waste of time.

        1. Yeah it’s been my experience that up on the hill here we tend to get more than other parts, but who knows. I am fine with snow after 1/1…was hoping to make it but mother nature doesn’t care one bit what I want ha. Thanks.

      1. I could see the clamor for the ECMWF numbers, so I was typing on my iPhone. Sorry about the typos.

        I am in 100% agreement with TK’s thoughts for system #1 and his thoughts on Wed / Thu.

        I have already given my thoughts on any snowfall numbers that models are displaying more than 3 days out.

  19. I have yet to burn the oil…wife is about ready to kill me but the AC heat is still working, albeit not great.

      1. Me too. My wife, however, is always cold…so we battle it out ha. I use to sleep with windows open in the winter as a kid.

        1. I can’t go there. I refuse to be cold. I have it a nice 72 degrees in here right now and the gas insert going. Sitting here in short sleeves. I also refuse to bundle up in the house. I have heat in the basement, my workshop, and the garage. I will NOT be cold. If I have to endure winter here for another 15 years, by god I’m gonna be warm.

          1. 71 in here. Still no heat on for the day. Person on zoning board said the builder wrapped these houses excessively. I think some of the heat escapes into my zone when kids run theirs. But even they find they use heat far less than they’d expect. But I think you misunderstand a bit. 71 is hot for me. I wear a tee always. Because temp is low, I never feel cold in the house. I don’t not use heat to save money. I just prefer it cooler than most. I sleep with window open always. I sleep In summer PJs and have a sheet and comforter. No blankets. And a lot of the time toss the comforter off. But I would never be uncomfortable in my own home. It is funny how different people adapt to temps but differences are what make the world go round !!

  21. Problem with my house is that there is unbalanced heating. My parents room is freezing they jack up the heat, but then my room is like 80 so I open the window, such a waste of heat and electricity but what can you do when you like the room a tad cool when your sleeping.

    1. Out old house was like that but the colder rooms were the ones the people who liked cold spent most of their time. We just got lucky. We typically used about 800 gallons of oil in old house. Curious to see what we use here.

  22. NWS leaning to a faster warming as well, I just have a feeling it will hold longer but I am probably wrong. Maybe the Russians hacked my numbers 🙂

      1. Its part of human caused climate change. Seasons are also shrinking and expanding depending on which your talking about

    1. yeah and thats when the other extremes really started as well. Also the past 10 years we have had records of all types. Snow, Drought, Rain, Heatwaves. No individual event but merge them togeather you know its happening.

      1. Are you watching, Matt? The segment on how ski areas are adapting is short but exceptional. Unfortunately, the steps they are taking cost big bucks and that will continue to impact prices…at least for a while. I’m hoping it will even out in a matter of a few years

  25. At fire and ice Kennebunkport.
    Dinner earlier at pier 77. Band is great.
    About 19 here. Nice. Beautiful night out.

          1. I haven’t even looked at any met amounts at all . It’s going to be a quick nuisance Boston/ south and seems to be coming in later meaning Monday morning .

  28. Hey, this has been bothering me for a while and I know others as well, We left the wbz blog because of the bashing going on. Can we please leave the bashing on facebook, or other blogs you are part of. I find it appalling. All tv channels have their positives. Do I agree that Channel 4 is the better of the three, Yes. Channel 7 and 5 also have qualified mets who earned a degree in Meteorology. Many including myself could not do some of the things they have to do. This includes listening to their boss.

            1. I’ve seen different maps posted on my FB page Vicki . I’m not commenting anymore there is no need to keep this going .

      2. Seriously? Comical. At least I ain’t blind by hate, and was played like a fiddle. You know darn straight I won’t be going into any so called “safe space”

    2. Maybe. Hadi usually has a good handle on things. I didn’t agree earlier, but I see a slight difference with that 0z run. I’ll stay firm for the moment, however reserve right to change mind after 12z runs tomorrow.

      for the moment, but reserve

  32. Just got connected via wifi.

    I sure don’t want to see this blog got he way of bz.

    As long as we don’t bash each other, I don’t see a problem expresses or opinions about the TV mts
    I Sur am guilty ofvthat. I simply can’t tolerate most of them. I am extremely fussy and most just don’t cut it in my eyes. You have seen some from me. I’LL refrain at the moment.

    1. My view remains constant. I left BZ because mets were being criticized. I said earlier and earlier, I have trouble bashing anyone when we have no idea of the circumstances. I know some because Pete Bouchard was open about station protocol. But that is a drop in the bucket. How do we criticize what we do not understand. Matt is right. These mets are in the business because they love weather. They are highly qualified. The bottom line is to me…and it is my opinion only….criticizing anyone on this blog degrades the blog. But that is truly up to TK to decide. it is TK who puts the time, tremendous effort and dollars into this space for us. Id be all over anyone who found fault with those on this blog who put their heart and soul into it…..JPDave, after TK, you and several others would too my list. I’m just a bystander who enjoys reading and contributing stuff that really is not important…..even though I may have a few strong opinions :).

      All of that said….I would love someone to help me understand how it enhances WHW in any way to find fault with media mets.

      1. Vicki, I almost always agree with you, but not on this count. If a TV met sucks, I feel I should be able to express my thoughts.

        If it really bothers people, i’ll keep it to myself.. my wife hears it all of the time as I yellvatvthevtv.

        1. It isn’t my choice. Just my opinion. And I respect yours. How does it make whw a better and more professional blog. I may be wrong about that being the goal and if so my view doesn’t mean anything.

  34. It all will depend on how fast precip moves in. Cold air will linger a little longer than modeled but no question rain moves up. I just think we squeeze out a couple inches before the changeover. The airmass ahead of the storms is plenty cold. Also need to watch out how much precip dries up before the column saturates. That could eat away that QPF and we aren’t working with a lot of it. Anywho fun to track as always and watch to see how it unfolds.

    Now my Skins need a win tomorrow big time!!

    3. All good points. We’ll know soon enough. One thing though, this sucker absolutely wants to track through the lakes. And unless the set up is justvright, that is some front end snow then rain. How much snow is highly depdrndent…

  36. Last night was a classic case of radiational cooling; caused a low temperature forecast bust in some areas. Here in Plymouth, NH, clear skies, calm winds, and a couple inches of snow cover caused the temperature at our AWOS to plunge to -3F. About 10 degrees colder than forecast last evening.

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