Sunday Forecast

71 Comments

8:19AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 11-15)
The active pattern will continue. This is not a pattern juiced with big storms, but a pattern with frequent systems and changing weather. First, a cold and dry Sunday as clouds increase ahead of the approaching low pressure area that you’ve heard about as if it’s some massive winter storm about to strike. Truth is, as far as winter-type storm systems go, it’s rather minor. Once again it’s timing as well as precipitation type that will have impact on travel. That critical time will be the Monday morning drive as snow will have fallen in much of the region starting several hours before that. The forecast is essentially unchanged from yesterday, so I’ll leave it at that. Looking ahead, there are also no significant changes to the thinking presented on the previous blog update. Tuesday will be fair and chilly as a small high pressure area crosses the region. Keeping Wednesday’s forecast mainly dry for now as systems should be weak enough and far enough apart well south and northwest that we’re in between and left with nothing. What will happen is the southern system will intensify off the Mid Atlantic as it turns more to the north, eventually joining with the northern system to form a larger storm and yank down much colder air from Canada starting Thursday.
TODAY: Sunshine fading behind increasing clouds. Highs 28-36. Wind light variable.
TONIGHT: Thickening overcast. Snow develops overnight except mix South Coast. Lows 22-30. Wind light NE to E.
MONDAY: Overcast. Precipitation morning to early afternoon will be mainly snow I 495 north of the Mass Pike and northwestward from there but may end as a period of sleet/freezing rain near I 495 and in parts of central MA to far southern NH, snow transitioning to mix then rain I 95 belt mainly Boston to Providence corridor, mix turning to rain immediate coast from Boston south including Cape Cod. Updated snow accumulation estimate: coating to 1 inch coastline and Cape Cod, 1-3 inches Boston to Providence corridor, 3-6 inches I 495 belt mainly north of the Mass Pike and northwestward from there. Highs 33-43, mildest Cape Cod. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-30. Highs 32-40.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Lows 20-28. Highs 34-42.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Windy. Lows 15-23. Highs 28-35 early but falling after.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 16-20)
Fair and very cold December 16. Unsettled over the weekend of December 17-18 with a threat of snow/mix/rain depending on evolution of 1 or 2 low pressure areas. Fair and colder at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 21-25)
From the Winter Solstice to Christmas Day expect a fast-flowing pattern with a couple minor systems and variable temperatures averaging a little closer to normal.

71 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  2. Thanks TK!

    It appears less likely now that Boston will get its first inch of snow tomorrow…probably fall just short or even a measly 1/2 inch.

    With the average date of Dec. 11 we will have to wait another week, maybe next weekend?

  3. Dave Epstein over on WBZ is now wearing glasses and has shaved off his beard. I generally don’t like beards but his did look nice and distinguished.

  7. NWS is already hinting at another quick snow to rain event next weekend.

    Is this going to be pretty much the theme for December and much of the upcoming winter TK?

  8. Thanks TK. Glad I’ll get to see one decent size snow event up here before heading home for winter break.

    Next 10 days look to remain cold to very cold for the region. Any warm-ups will be storm driven and brief. Changes are brewing beyond then though. The last 10 days of this month look quite warm to me. Lot of buzz out there about the potential for another very warm Christmas. Some models, mostly the GFS, have been wrongly trying to accelerate the warm-up for awhile. They’re all on board now though, and the timeline is moving up. Question will become, does the warm pattern take hold deep into January as well, or do we return to this colder pattern? Too far away to know.

  10. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Here is an interesting chart from the Euro. Shows a whopping 0.6 inch of snow
    for Boston.

    http://imgur.com/a/RuGss

    If I plug in Worcester, it shows 3.7 inches.

    TK, Looks like you have abandoned the idea of a decent Pre-Christmas storm.

    It looks like the weather gods have abandoned us as well.

    Looking at the 12Z NAMS (all of them, including the new Experimental NAM 3km)
    all show “about” the same, 1 or at most 2 inches for Boston.

    CMC continues to be most robust with 2-3 inches for Boston. Fat chance of that.

    I am staying firm with the rapid changeover.

    After getting down to 12, it is already up to 27 here.

    1. After that, the Euro shows a system sliding OTS on Wednesday followed
      by a MASSIVE LAKES CUTTER on Saturday.!! Damn, I despise those cutters! They piss me off to no end. Not going to snow that way!

    2. Not completely. Remember models are making forecasts about elements that are thousands and thousands of miles away. General pattern is what we have now, but the details…may questions to be answered yet.

      1. OK, that’s a relief and thank you.

        I guess it’s the proverbial “We Shall See”.

        I am not liking this current pattern. Way too often, systems
        want to cut through the Lakes and if not that, then slide OTS,
        leaving us in the middle.

        It does appear rather changeable. A feature that shows today for 10 days from now, is so different it’s not even noticeable
        on runs a few days from now.

    2. Nice job Matt. I think you have Boston covered nicely with that
      coating to 2 inches. That “should” verify just fine. 😀

  13. Thanks TK !

    Possible widespread snow showers/ snow squalls with the arctic front mid week ? Both EURO and GFS definitely show something in the hr 114 to 120 hr time frame, looking at the isobars.

  15. Greetings from SeaWorld where it is mostly cloudy and 70 degrees (sorry, had to rub it in). I only popped in to see what me and my better half would be flying home to tonight. I’ll check the models and everything else on my flight home tonight (thank you JetBlue) and my weekly outlook may even get posted from 35,000 feet. Time to go see Shamu and friends.

    1. Have fun. It must be a huge week to head to the SeaWorld although I am assuming you are at the one in Orlando and could be incorrect. I know of at least four families who are in Orlando this week.

    2. Have a safe trip home!

      I am probably going to do the Monday update very early, post it shortly after midnight, and leave extra time to deal with any cleanup in the morning. Won’t be a ton, but it will still be there.

  16. Although I think the stadium lights and HD cameras are making it look worse than it really is, the 1 pm game (on CBS) between the Bills and Steelers is being played in snow from Orchard Park, NY.
    Love watching football in the snow!

      1. Delays or closings. Even though its advisory level snowfall, The mix of it being the first regional weather event and starting over night, I am leaning towards a closing. I think There be a good amount of closings along and north of i495. Mix of Delays and closings within 495 belt, Nothing south and east of boston.

          1. Happy Birthday grandson #1…..oh wait, that wasn’t why you mentioned June 13??

            Hoping rain will move in (since it is going to anyway) early enough to avoid nasty commute – both business and school bus.

  18. I find it interesting that Cape Ann is in the WWA area but not Boston considering that it sticks out into the water.

  20. The 18Z NAMs and the 19Z HRRR ALL indicate about 1/2 inch to 1 inch max for
    Boston. I’m thinking 1/2 or perhaps less.

  23. Not the strongest storm, cold temps last 48 hrs, think cold surface air will be tough to scour out or moderate to above 32F well inland. Suspect after an inch to as much as 3 inches of snow, inland areas may have more of an icing event than being currently depicted.

  24. The various array of short range guidance is in fairly decent agreement regarding snow amounts and generally in the ranges posted above.

    2. I think Boston gets right about 1 inch, but it will depend on the solidity of the snow area. There may be a bit of a dry slot that tries to move up from the south right before everything fills back in. Timing will be everything. Boston should be raining by 6AM. I agree with that.

  27. To expand above …..

    When it begins to snow, there’s room for evaporative cooling to bring the temps down to 25 to 28F, especially inland from the ocean.

    At its strongest, this is a 1004 mb low, not too strong. It takes a strong, much more intense storm to push milder air into interior area once we get to this time of year. I feel like the models always overstate the amount of inland surface warming during the winter with inside runners unless the storm is extremely intense.

    I can envision a decent coastal front in the early hours of tomorrow morning. The kind where it’s 36F to 38F at Logan with an E or ESE breeze. This coastal front, I believe, could make it to 495 by mid morning. Anything N and W of where the Mass Pike and 495 intersect, the coastal front doesn’t make it and it stays below freezing at the surface while it precipitates.

    If this is true, then the storms quick moving dry slot has a chance to shut off the precip before a lot of ice can accumulate.

    Then, where it moderated to the east of the coastal front, no freeze or flash freeze, but I could see a midday temp drop from the low 40s back to the mid 30s in Boston and SE Mass when the secondary low develops in the Gulf of Maine and the surface winds switch around to the W.

    1. Excellent explanation. Thank you. What would happen down my way….intersect of MA, RI, CT area. Or is that not as clear

      1. Of course, this is just my guess. 🙂 🙂

        A bit of snow, up to 1 or 2 inches. I guess your area does get above freezing for a while, but not the low 40s that Logan and SE Mass will see. Perhaps in the mid 30s (34 to 38) between 9 and 11am. Might have some freezing rain for a few hours before that. I believe the coastal front’s furthest westward position won’t be too far from you and hopefully you’ll get on its eastward side for a while tomorrow morning.

        Of course, you know this means that it will end up being 45 to 50F all the way to the Mass/NH border 🙂 🙂 🙂

      1. I have only been once. My wife has gone a number of times and she loves it. We went to the Divine Mercy Shrine in Stockbridge this year. It’s was awesome and very peaceful. We follow the messages of Medjugorje as well.

        1. I would truly enjoy that. I was not familiar with Medjugorje but just read some and am very interested. My oldest grandson is an old soul. He is now 9, but From 2-3 years the focus of Christmas to him has always been the manger…no formal religious education just inner belief. I will read more with him. Thank you.

  31. In terms of sports, giants found the 2 balls they intercepted to be way under inflated even more than what the patriots had… Not sure how accurate the few sources I seen about more than the patriots balls but the fact that there is no investigation at all about it is making me mad

Comments are closed.