Monday Forecast

133 Comments

1:26AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 12-16)
We start the week with a weak but somewhat significant system, weak in terms of its strength, but significant in terms of its impact on the morning commute, as snow will be in the process of transitioning to rain from south to north across the region, with a period of freezing rain over north central MA and southern NH for a while. The snow is expected to have accumulated less than 1 inch across far southeastern MA, southern RI, and the immediate coast of eastern MA, with 1-3 inches in the I-95 belt, 2-4 inches in the I-495 belt, and 3-6 inches from north central MA into southwestern and south central NH. By midday and afternoon it’s a done deal and the sky will be clearing for tonight’s Monday Night Football game in Foxboro between the Patriots and Ravens. In fact, with not too much cold air behind the storm, it won’t be all that bad for player and spectators. Expected dry weather Tuesday with a seasonable chill, then changes start to take place. Wednesday, a storm system will develop but should pass south of the region. We’ll have to watch for a period of cloudiness and perhaps a little snow/mix near the South Coast, but for now going with the idea of it staying too far south. This storm system will turn more to the north once by the region and combine with another low into a stronger system in the Canadian Maritimes, helping to drag down some very cold air for Thursday and Friday. A couple disturbances may result in snow showers/squalls Thursday afternoon and night. Expect a lot of wind as well on Thursday and Friday.
TODAY: Overcast into afternoon with rain southern MA/RI/CT and snow transitioning to rain northern MA into southern NH but with a period of sleet and freezing rain possible north central MA into interior southern NH, then rain ending from west to east midday and early afternoon. Breaking clouds late day. Highs 38-46 late-day. Wind variable under 10 MPH becoming W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Patchy black ice on untreated surfaces. Lows 23-31. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 34-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-30. Wind SW 5-10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy southeastern areas morning, otherwise partly cloudy. Highs 33-41. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered snow showers/squalls. Windy. Temperatures fall through the 20s.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Windy. Lows 0-8 except 9-14 Cape Cod. Highs 17-25.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 17-21)
Developing snow to mix to rain December 17 with a very cold start and less cold finish. Much milder with rain showers possible December 18. Generally dry and colder December 19-21.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 22-26)
Weak systems may bring a few rain/snow showers early and mid period. Temperatures variable but averaging closer to normal overall.

133 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

      1. Rain confirmed. Looks about an inch eyeballing it. Can still see some grass under pine tree. Any time I don’t have to roof rake is a win.

        1. I will not miss that one bit and the worry whether an ice dam will back water in. Glad you don’t have to today

  5. Snowing heavily in Holden. Unless it changes in the next hour, we should have no problem hitting 4″ my best guess. Surprised to be honest. I didn’t think an inch or two at best even out here

  6. About 2-3 inches snow just looking. Changed to rain about 30 min ago. Did not hear sleet but doesn’t mean we didn’t have some. Two hour school delay

  7. Rain now making it to Worcester. I work just south of the mass pike. 28 at home. 36 and raining at work 15 miles south

  8. Thanks TK !

    We had about an inch, but most is melted. Moderate rain with a decent E and SE wind. Well above freezing now.

  9. 2 inches even. Could be slightly compacted by rain. Measured in bare feet on deck and it was really slick. Be careful walking

  10. What is freezing rain? All Wunder stations say we have ice pellets or freezing rain in Sutton. I was just out in it and it just feels wet and not frozen. JR said Worcester reporting rain but because temp is 30 that would mean it is freezing rain. it is 30 here also but rising slowly

    1. at those temps and with the cold of the past few days, certain things may see some ice form on them. best to use reasonable caution out there until the temp gets a bit above 32F.

      It’s that area just north of rt 2 that’s even colder. Some upper 20s. Hopefully the column stays cold enough up there for snow and doesn’t change to rain.

      1. So does that mean even though it is rain as it comes down that because the ground is cold and it can freeze as it hits the ground that it classifies as freezing rain?

        1. I don’t know if on an ob they would classify it, but in the scenario you described, it would be freezing rain, even if the ob said rain.

          So, an ob could say 34F with light rain, however, if there’s snow on the ground (a refrigerant) and it’s been in the teens 3 days prior, then there’s a pretty reasonable bet that on some surfaces, you’d still be seeing some icy conditions even with a temp slightly higher than 32F.

          Conversely, for the same 34F light rain scenario, if there’s no snow cover and the previous few days had been mild, then there were be a much less likelihood of icy spots.

  11. Looks like everything is about on track generally, forecast-wise.
    Regular start time for schools in Woburn and there was no need for anything different. This should be the type of day that it’s regular time, and they don’t bother marking anyone tardy that’s up to several minutes late.

    1. I agree with no deal in your area. For here I believe the delay is absolutely justified. But we have a different road system with many more narrow, winding, hilly side roads. Most kids take bus and with changeover hitting same time as bus pickup, makes absolute sense to me to delay.

  12. Funny in my area most driveways are semi snow free or you can see the asphalt poking through by still people are out with snow blowers ha. They aren’t even throwing anything.

    1. I have only seen shovels here but there is enough to shovel. SIL shoveled before he left at 6:00. However, shoveled areas look to have a layer of ice now. I do notice that folks also shovel their sidewalks….without being told. Imagine that!

    1. Thank you. I see Logan came in with 0.9 inch.

      I think I got a tad more. Difficult to say. I looked out at 6:30 and it was still snowing, but there may have been some rain mixed in. By 7 it was all rain for sure. Looking out the window it looked like and inch inch and 1/2.

      When I cleaned my car off around 8, there was 3/4 inch of slop on it, so
      I’m sure we had at least the inch and perhaps a bit more. Certainly NOT 2-3
      inches. 😀

      1. The rain compacted it quickly. I’d say we may have had 2.5 but by time I went out to measure, it was 2.

        Street is just being plowed now. They sure seem to do a very thorough job for a side street. One bus came up the hill about 30 minutes ago and was barely crawling. Trash pickup was about 90 minutes late.

  15. I don’t like roller coaster weather. Last night Eric had a high of 16 for Friday with
    a high of 54 for Sunday with the kitchen sink in between. Gimmie a break.
    let it be cold OR if it needs to be warm, let it stay warm. None of this back and forth
    happy horse S**T!

  16. NO traffic problems heading to work. JAM (just another Monday).

    I HATE Mondays.

    Let’s see if we can crank out a bit more front end snow Saturday before
    the Tropical melt down. 😀 😀 😀

    TK, you working on that pre-Christmas snow storm to ensure our white Christmas?
    We are depending on you.

  19. It looks like the final rain/snow line was along the MA?NH border or so. I’m sure some places in MA stayed snow near the border. That is “about” where Eric said it would
    be on last night’s broadcast.

  20. Hi Vicki,

    In regards to Medjugorje there is a new book you may like. It’s very interesting and easy read. My Heart will Triumph by Miranda Soldo.

  22. All about location today… It’s a winter wonderland scene up here. Don’t have a number yet but it looks like 5-6 inches, with a little under half an inch melted so far. Storm behaved very well.

    1. Was literally just going to post that. Kind of funny, the poor DGEX.

      With that also comes a major upgrade to the NAM. The new 3km version is already public for testing- the 3km resolution is pretty slick. Will replace the current operational 4km version. Upgrades also to the 12km “parent” model.

      1. Yes, I’m liking the new 3KM NAM. That’s nice resolution and
        should render it a more superior short range model. Let us
        hope so anyway.

    1. the numbers in there for Billerica seem high to me. I reported 1.9 inches. My three other friends who measure, no one measured more than 2 inches.

  28. That was not the link I wanted to post but did show some minor snow shower activity for parts of SNE tomorrow night.

  31. All the teleconnectors and the PV getting stronger indicate a warm up after Friday’s frigid freezer (see what I did there 😉 I could write copy for channel 7)
    I have zero use for highs in the teens and lows in the single digits.

  33. Storm over the weekend (saturday looks like freezing rain could be an issue to start in the interior valleys with some snow mixing in but mainly rain.) What has my attention is what comes in afterward which could give us the only chance of have a white Christmas ( inch or more of snow on the ground) Tuesday to Thursday time frame
    12zgfs
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016121212/gfs_mslpa_us_36.png
    12zcanadian.
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016121212/gfs_mslpa_us_36.png
    EURO and the ensembles of the others are still to come out, but I strongly think if we have any form of precipitation this coming weekend despite the cold Thursday/Friday it won’t be in the form of snow, rather sleet and freezing rain before changing over to plain rain.

  34. Thank you, TK.

    It’s a fickle weather pattern which is not conducive to big snows in SNE, and is mostly conducive to rain or mix at the coast. It’s also not a “frigid” pattern (except for a 24-36 hour `stretch’ late this week). As such, it’s not at all the pattern advertised by most forecasters (not TK) last week (“December’s going to be cold to very cold as winter locks in” – heard this on several channels, and did not believe it for a second).

    JJ, your team finally got beaten last night, but it’s a good Cowboy squad. The one person I’m just not that impressed with is Dak Prescott. I’ve watched him all season and don’t understand the buzz. He runs well, and takes advantage of defensive lapses. But, he makes a lot of poor decisions. He’s lucky he hasn’t thrown more interceptions. Eliot, on the other hand, is truly impressive. I love watching him run behind that awesome offensive line. And, the Cowboys’ defense is much improved over last year.

  35. 12Z EURO has REALLY backed off on the front end snows for Saturday.
    Down from about 4 inches for Boston to about 1/2 inch. 😀 FIGURES! What else is new.

  36. Joshua I did not have a good feeling going into the Giants game. I thought we were going to lose the game. Dak past couple games has come back down to earth but I still don’t think you bench him for Romo. What was disappointing was our defense forced three turnovers last night and we could not score any points off those turnovers. If Justin Durant hung on to the Eli throw we would have had the ball in field goal range.
    The Giants beat us on one play and that was difference and the first game we played them we moved the football a lot better than last night.

  37. Several thoughts ….

    1) Quite looking forward to the arctic front Wednesday evening / night and the accompanying chance of a snow shower or squall. If the models continue to signal this disturbance with the front, then I think someone has a chance at seeing one of those 10 minute whiteouts that deposits a quick 1/4 inch to 1 inch of snow.

    2) Assuming the system next weekend stays as strong as currently modeled, I think there’s going to be very little, if any front end snow with it. Too much warming too quickly at the surface and aloft given the pressure gradient and accompanying southwesterly flow.

    3) Now that Canada has been cold, there’s some snow cover around and Hudson Bay is icing up, it wont take much to form enough cold, dense air in Canada to send a bubble of it down into New England and turn what appears to be a mild to warm long term outlook into a chillier long term outlook with possible wintry precip.

  38. Leave it to Logan to come in just short at 0.9″. Hopefully they get their first inch and maybe then some. I would assume with true arctic air (albeit leaving) a good front end thumping of snow before the changeover come Saturday.

    JPDave…actually I HATE Tuesdays moreso. I find that public transit is much more crowded believe it or not. 😉

  39. Looking 10 days ahead on the Euro, I see a SOUTHEAST RIDGE theme, so even
    IF cold gets in here, the ridge keeps building sending mild to warm air this way.

    1. I know it’s not yet cranked out a ton of snow, but at least this has been the most interesting December weather wise in a while. I can’t remember being this engaged about possible snow in December in a long time.

    1. My business associate said there was a flood warning for York Harbor. Glad to hear it was minor. I have lost track. Are the tides unusually high?

        1. Thank you, TK. I was wondering if the King Tides have anything to do with it. So this is a sort of Prince tide 🙂 Or princess…

          1. Hah! Yes King Tides are actually several months. There is a peak month and 1 or 2 significant months either side.

            The only thing “special” about this cycle is that it was the largest in over 40 years. And after 40 years of wearing down of the natural coastline and buildup along it, it’s pretty unsurprising to see the flooding we have seen.

  43. So, I ask a certain Boston TV station, is it going to be 61F or 40F next Sunday ?? No wonder the public half understands meteorologists ……. And watch this evening, based on the 12z EURO, the projection will be back somewhere in the mid 50s.

      1. 4

        In some way, I wish I hadn’t pointed that out, because I don’t want to come across as negative. But, it is a fact that the last 2 outlooks switched from 61 to 40 and again, I wonder what the evening update will show with the 12z runs.

        Just more the idea that sometimes the 7th day on an outlook is pointless 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

            1. I could be very wrong….but last year there seemed to be evidence of 4 pushing even harder than 7 to get the numbers out first. I have the sense 7 has learned a bit. Tom, you are the last person to be negative. Your very fav met is exceptional. If he is ambivalent, it says to me much more than we understand is at play…..that more would be management.

            2. I can’t criticize Barry. If he has any fault at all, sometime he has a tendancy to Hug the Euro a little too firmly. I love Barry. I have watched him since the very first time he appeared on Channel 4 ages ago. 😀

              1. But the point I am trying to make and somehow is missing. It isn’t the mets. It is management. I know for a fact that 7 insisted numbers be out first….no matter what. How does a met handle that when they know it is too soon.

                So criticize rhe station…..the management….not the individual.

                1. Agree. They HAVE to put something. The boss says so. I already know that Harvey has never been a fan of a 7-day forecast, but he has to do it.

                2. So sadly true. Pete talked to me about it several times and like the others was very frustrated. Management could care less now they look. Very sad

  45. All,

    There is a polar vortex headed this way with “extremeness”. Global warming has dislodged this anomaly and its headed this way with ruthless force and uncaring depth. Make sure there is plenty of oil in your tanks and buy extra sweaters while you still can. There hasn’t been extreme cold like this since – last year – a long time ago. One wonders how the settlers would have possibly survived those early winters in the face of scales tipped by global warming. Certainly exposure like this would have spun them around in their ships if they survived at all. Thank God the climate was constant not extreme then or none of us would be here. Take care friends. See you on the other side.

    2. Ya think? I’ve NEVER seen single digits in December! NEVER! It is unprecedented!!!!

      Wait, I lie!!! What’s the Big bleeping deal???

      😀

      Just gimmie some snow. Today does NOT count. 😀

  46. The upcoming NBC Boston Ch. 10 (cable) and Ch. 8 (over air) will have 10-day forecasts including a mobile Dopplar radar vehicle. Pete Bouchard is one of the mets as well. Not sure if he is the chief though.

    The big question is if most of Boston will be able to receive it. Central MA will have no signal…maybe limited to the south as well.

      1. Pete said tonight upper teens in the am Thursday and single digits late afternoon into evening. Brrr but not unheard of in December.

  48. JPDave .. That possible sneaky snow event just before Christmas is still on the table. I’m keeping my eye on something that may surprise us around December 20.

  49. It starts

    US National Weather Service Boston MA added 3 new photos.
    Just now ·
    [Thursday Night into Friday Morning]
    In case you hadn’t heard, it is going to turn dangerously cold.
    Simply put, arctic air out of Canada will result in plummeting temperatures Thursday down to single digit to below-zero lows by Friday morning.
    Couple that with NW winds gusting around 30 to 40 mph, possibly as high as around 50 mph, and minimum wind chills will range around 15 to 25 below-zero.
    Some safety tips …
    Frostbite can occur on exposed body parts during extreme cold. Uncovered faces, cheeks and extremities such as fingers and toes are most susceptible. When temperatures are around 0 degrees Fahrenheit and the wind is blowing at 15 miles per hour, frostbite can occur in approximately 30 minutes.
    The colder the temperatures or the stronger the wind, the faster frostbite will occur. Dress properly for the cold. If you feel pain or numbness, find warm shelter. If symptoms persist seek medical attention.

    https://scontent.fbed1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/15541930_1208100402617662_2241014148544934049_n.png?oh=b06ecd7c68ae3b146c1b51d16f5be734&oe=58B8FCEB

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N6Fq4RkWe7s&feature=youtu.be

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