Tuesday Forecast

76 Comments

7:34AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 13-17)
Pattern remains very progressive with weak high pressure to the south of the region today giving way to a developing area of low pressure passing south of the region tonight and early Wednesday. Energy between this and another low over the Great Lakes will bring some cloudiness into the region by tonight to very early Wednesday with just a touch of light snow possible. Then, a couple arctic cold fronts bring much colder and windy weather in for Thursday and Friday. By Saturday, temperatures moderation is underway but this will be introduced by a period of snow to ice to rain as the warmer air has to overrun the cold air in place as it moves in.
TODAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 34-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Spotty light snow. Lows 22-30. Wind SW 5-10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy morning with spotty light snow early. Mostly sunny afternoon. Highs 33-41. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered snow showers/squalls. Windy. Temperatures fall through the 20s.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Windy. Lows 0-8 except 9-14 Cape Cod. Highs 17-25.
SATURDAY: Clouding over. Snow to ice to rain. Lows 8-16. Highs 38-45.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 18-22)
Milder with rain showers December 18. Colder December 19-21 but may have to watch a wave of low pressure passing to the south about December 20 with a possible snow threat. Milder with a few rain/snow showers at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 23-27)
Weak systems may bring a few rain/snow showers early to mid period. Watch for a stronger system late period. Temperatures variable but averaging closer to normal overall.

76 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  4. Good morning and thank you TK. Will be watching that 12/20 time frame
    very closely. I liked what the 0Z CMC had for it, but GFS and Euro = Negative on that.
    Still 7 days out. 😀

    re: Ocean temperature
    The latest from Boston Buoy sitting 16 NM East of Boston:

    Water Temperature (WTMP): 48.9 °F

  5. Please Canadian be wrong, I do not want to be coming in on the 23 for a physics final. I just want to get the crap done.

    1. Sorry Matt, I am rooting for it. But, seriously, how many times is the CMC
      correct? Well, not many, however, this time it has TK on its side. 😀

        1. If I want it, then it will be a Miss. Except for 1 thing?
          TK says to be on the look out and you know what that means. 😀

                2. its camp JP, trust me I would love snow on the ground for Christmas, just not on the 20th, or 22nd I have finals those days and do not want to go in on Friday

  6. If one looks at the radar model it shows snow and rain for tonight. Looks like it might
    be a decent amount, but then look at the total accumulation precipitation (qpf) and
    it shows practically nothing. Thus the reason for TK’s “spotty snow”. 😀

  9. Within 48 to 72 hrs, kind of interesting how the SE ridge can be both foe (12/18) and potentially friend (12/20 to 12/21) for snow opportunities in southern New England.

  10. It makes me sad looking at those EURO ensembles that Ryan tweeted showing 80% chance of greater than 3 inches of snow for me only to be washed away. If this storm didn’t cut to the west and tracked south of us this could have been a decent snow event.
    Hoping the 12/20 12/21 time frame produces some snow for White Christmas.
    After that UGH with above normal temps Christmas week into early January as it looks like that SE ridge real takes hold.

    1. It’s probably not smart to question the EURO ensembles, so I guess I won’t be smart 🙂 🙂

      I’ll be curious to see if in 48 hrs, they are still that bullish. Going to have to snow quite hard in a short time period before that warm air overwhelms any part of the column.

      1. Thank you, sir TK! My guess would be that record or near record cold for this time of year would be difficult to hold onto for more than a short time. Would that be an accurate assumption?

        The water temp is still high, although SLOWLY dropping. Again, expected.

        1. That is what I thought but was slightly confused with your comment prior to the link……was not completely clear it was sarcasm 🙂

  14. Waiting on the Euro, but after looking at the 12Z GFS and CMC, I Puked all over
    my computer and am still cleaning up()!U@(#!@&#*(&!@*(&#*(!@&#*(&!@*(#&*

      1. It still blows chunks and I can’t stand it.

        Just let it stay warm. Screw this roller coaster with all storms
        cutting to the West. Bring on the heat as far as I’m concerned.

  17. Not a good looking pattern upcoming to me if you want snow. 12/1-12/20 was our window to come roaring out of the gate. The cold has generally been there and will continue to be through the end of that window. The snow, however, was a no show for the most part. Plenty of storms, but a Lakes Cutter barrage. The last 10 days of this month and at least the first 10 of January look quite warm relative to average to me. It’s winter, so it can snow even in a warm pattern, but I’d bet heavily on below normal to well below normal snow for the next 30 days, with above normal temperatures after the coming arctic blast.

    It’s an interesting pattern though, like every winter season this one will write its own storybook. Have to enjoy it for what it is 🙂

    1. I do believe, however, that eventually the pendulum will swing back. This isn’t last year when El Nino was pulling all the strings and winter never really had a chance to get going. Rarely will a cold pattern lock in for three months at a time. Likewise, the coming warm pattern will not hold for the entirety of winter.

  18. I am hoping this could get up to where I am before the dreaded rainorama takes over. This tweet from NY NJ PA weather
    ECMWF is starting to pick up on heavy to moderate snow potential for the region before change over. Saturday morning very white.

    If anyone has that 12z EURO snow map for Saturday before the change to rainorama can that please be posted. Many thanks. By the way EURO has 61 for a high on Sunday at BDL according to a tweet from Ryan Hanrahan

  21. JJ Euro snow maps NOT impressive to me. About an inch for Boston, IF that.
    About 4-6 inches NW CT and Berks.

  25. From Eric on Twitter:

    Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher · 11m11 minutes ago

    Will be a 6-12 hour window of damaging wind potential Thursday night into early Friday morning as powerful LLJ dives through. 40-60mph gusts

  27. JPDave thanks for those links. Much appreciated.
    Hang in there we still got January, February, and March and January and February to me is when we get our big ones.

    1. Hope so. Not getting encouraged by the (as WxWatcher aptly put it) BARRAGE
      of LAKES CUTTERS!()@(&*!@#)(!@#&!*@&#*!*@#

  28. I have six wimp snowfalls so far the biggest being Sun night into Mon with 2 inches. I am ready for bigger snowfalls. I was so upset on the Monday of Thanksgiving weekend that if I was up in elevation like areas north of me I would have saw double digit snowfall.

  29. From NWS:

    */ Overview…

    appears to be the dominant force with
    regards to the long-term weather pattern. Presently negative, higher
    heights and warmer temperatures across the NE Pacific and across AK
    are yielding a cross-polar flow ushering shots of Arctic air S over
    Canada into the heart of the CONUS through the downstream trough as
    a series of 1030+ highs. Support via the persistent pattern trend
    associated with La Nina, will see H85 temperatures down around -25C
    by early Friday morning, such cold we have not seen since February
    around Valentine`s Day. Ouch, cold hearted. But that all appears to
    change going into the weekend as the EPO shifts positive with all
    other teleconnections being consistent. The H5 pattern round the N
    Hemisphere becomes less deamplified. Westerlies increase off the
    Pacific ushering milder air across the CONUS and higher heights. A
    warmer pattern emerges with higher heights as Arctic air is locked
    up around N Canada / Greenland with the strong westerlies. Less
    intrusion of colder air and the absence of a block downstream, we
    are looking a continued active weather pattern, but associated
    energy becoming deamplified and stretched across the NE CONUS with
    the rising height pattern associated with the +EPO. Any outcomes are
    mainly associated with over-running with the possibility of initial
    wintry outcomes before changing over to all rain. Will highlight the
    details in the discussion below.

    So this EPO, explains or is the Pacific Jet we keep hearing about?

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/ep.shtml

  32. Changing elevations on the radar display, I can readily see that it is SNOWING aloft
    all the way to the coast up here, but it is NOT making it to the ground.

    It will not so much move up this way as it will fill in all over as the column moistens.

    Temp 39 here with dp 23. Looks like IF it does anything, it will snow.

  33. If we could just get some coastal development for the weekend system, we could end up with a cooler scenerio, It just seems like sooner or later one of these things would transfer energy to a coastal.

    1. Not with the Shitty set ups we have had in place. No High to the North and incorrect upper air set up at 500, 300 and 200 mb. Don’t get redevelopment with S and SW winds. Ain’t gonna happen. It’s worse than pissing into a stiff wind.

  34. I forgot to wish everyone a happy Santa Lucia Day…..celebration of light in Sweden on the longest night of the year

  36. The EPO has a lot to do with getting cold into the eastern Conus. It’s somewhat analogous to the NAO, only in the pacific. A negative EPO tends to bring cold into the east, positive EPO brings warmer air. It also shares domain space with the PNA. The PNA is projected to go neutral to negative, EPO positive, so that’s basically constructive interference for those 2 teleconnectors. Therefore, higher heights in the east and warmer overall. That, coupled with a southeast ridge (varying in amplitude), doesn’t allow for many or any coastal lows to form and deepen. Any snow events would be strung out over runners rather than a Miller A or B type. To get snow of significance in thiat type of pattern, you need a well timed short wave with some cold to work with. Also the AO isnt favorable either. The PV looks to strengthen and lock the cold up north.

  37. It’s 4 days out things could change. How is it that if we saw a snow storm 4 days out it would change for sure but these rainstorms are almost set in stone.

  38. Alan Thicke passed away. He was 69. Daughter said he was playing hockey with his 19 yr old son and had a heart attack. He has been a part of my TV viewing for a very long time.

  41. Not a fan of the 00z GFS run.
    I’m a half-and-half fan of the 00z Canadian.
    I’ll probably still be up for the ECMWF…

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