Wednesday Forecast

129 Comments

2:20AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 14-18)
A weak disturbance will exit the region this morning after producing spotty light snow/rain over southeastern MA and RI. A couple of arctic boundaries will cross southern New England from northwest to southeast during Thursday, possibly producing snow showers/squalls. The main story will be the strong wind and bitterly cold air that moves in with these boundaries and continues through Friday, though the wind will drop off later Friday. The very progressive pattern will drive the next storm system into the region from the west early in the weekend, but its sprawling nature means it may take much of the weekend to get through here, bringing a transition out of the late-week cold to a milder spell, then back to cold at the very end, with a variety of weather during it all.
TODAY: Cloudiness decreases and sunshine develops after a little spotty light snow/rain in eastern MA and RI early. Highs 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH
TONIGHT: Clear evening. Partly cloudy with isolated to scattered snow showers overnight. Lows 22-30. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Sun and clouds. Isolated to scattered snow showers and snow squalls. Any squalls can contain briefly heavy snow and reduced visibility and produce minor accumulation and slippery travel. Highs 24-32 early, then falling temperatures. Wind W to NW 15-30 MPH with higher gusts.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered snow showers and snow squalls. Lows 0-12. Wind NW 15-30 MPH with gusts over 40 MPH. Wind chill -10 to -25.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers. Highs 14-21. Wind NW 15-30 MPH with higher gusts through early afternoon, diminishing later in the day. Wind chill often below 10.
SATURDAY: Clouding up early. Snow developing then transitioning to ice/rain. Lows 10-18. Highs 35-42.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers morning to midday. Temperature 45-55 morning-midday falling later.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 19-23)
Fair and cold December 19. Watch the period December 20-23 for 1 or possibly 2 precipitation threats from potential passing storms.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 24-28)
A couple weak disturbances bring the chance of rain/snow showers around Christmas and a more important system may approach later in the period.

129 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  1. Thank you so much, TK…

    Good morning, everyone!

    An Inflatable Holiday Lawn Ornament Warning has been hoisted by NWS – Taunton for tomorrow night.

    From their morning discussion:

    Sustained winds of up to 25 to 35 mph especially for those areas
    highlighted of seeing strongest gusts. Growing confidence of wind
    advisory headlines with possible high wind warnings. Am greatly
    concerned for inflatable holiday lawn ornaments.

    Time to batten down Rudolph!

    Enjoy the day!!!

    1. 🙂

      We are now inflatable free which does not bother me at all. Thank you for the warning. John might want to take note.

          1. I don’t know how to do that . Some folks here have seen it . My 12 yr old son basically did most of it . He designed and made a bungee xmas tree with lights .

  2. Thanks Tk. Any thoughts on the Saturday system for boston regarding the snow amounts and timing and what time does it switch over to rain.

      1. Thanks Arod nice to hear from you . Sounds like I’ll be in as all it takes is a dusting being a hospital.

        1. Although I would lean towards what Arod said,
          a word of caution. Both the Euro and CMC have MORE
          snow than the GFS. GFS has about 1/2 inch to 1 inch for Boston, the CMC has up to 4 inches and the Euro has about 3 inches BEFORE the TROPICAL MELT DOWN.

        2. No problem and thanks. By the way, I never did get that email from you. You had asked for my email address a while back. I didn’t want you to think I was ignoring you since I haven’t received it.

          1. I sent it maybe it didn’t go through . Just regarding a minor work injury ( slight lower back pull with spasms) all good now .

  5. The past 2 00z canadian runs has had a good storm 12z not so much. Will the pattern continue lets see the 12z and the 00z of tomorrow. GFS like all the others sends it to the west.EURO is to weak and to the north

  7. Granted its at the end of its range, but has anyone noticed the 12z nam holding onto the snow and cold longer for Saturday?

    1. I had noticed that on the 6Z run, but really needed that the additional time.
      Didn’t get a chance to look at the 12Z RUN until you posted the above.
      Thank you.

      Indeed it does. Here is the NAM snow map (assuming 10:1) ratio:

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016121412/namconus_asnow_neus_28.png

      Here is the snow map with the Kuchera method:

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016121412&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=084

      Hmmm both are fairly close. Kucher method must have calculated out close
      to 10:1. I am sure 15 or 20:1 at the outset and cruising down to 5 or 6 to 1 prior
      to changeover or something like that.

    2. nam has the tendency to over do the amounts when its past the 60ish hour. Nam shows a more radar like type output with its precipitation, (shows more variety in its heavy and light but I been saying Saturday the cold would have trouble getting out of the area. so I bet we have some ice issues particularly in the interior.

  9. Thanks TK !

    Both the NAM and the EURO have a hint of a small scale low trying to form on the warm front.

    The other interesting development in the last 24 hrs seems to be that the primary low is slightly weakening as it passes to our west, which may offer a slightly longer pre warm front, frozen precip opportunity.

    With that said, I still think it will be a struggle to see more than 1″ of snow in the eastern and southeastern half of New England on Saturday.

    One of those scenarios Saturday morning where it’s 23F in Boston, but Block Island and Cape Cod are in the upper 30s and rising quickly with SE winds and the precip is still 3 hrs away to the west and it’s a race in time in eastern New England against the return of the mild air that the snow loses.

    1. Thanks Tom. I am seeing more and more signs that the snow “may” be
      more prolonged than originally thought. We shall see. Would very much like
      to see the 12Z Euro. 😀

    2. Tom, supporting what you said, please see the following from the Taunton NWS office this morning:

      Friday night through Sunday…

      Initial snows transitioning to rain. Open wave disturbance, early on
      will see the bulk of forcing through the low-mid levels associated
      with isentropic over-running ahead of a warm frontal boundary. Along
      with frontogenetical forcing and moist convergence, some mid-upper
      level support via lead vortmax energy and jet dynamics, anticipate a
      good forward thump of outcomes with maritime-tropical fetch (pwats
      to an inch) over lingering low-level Arctic air possibly maintained
      by NE ageostrophic flow.

    3. I think we have a good shot at seeing some light snowfall, I really think the models are under doing the stubbornness of “valley cold”

  10. This pretty much sums up the overall pattern. Similar to what they said yesterday, with
    a little bit better description, imho.

    */ Overview…

    Main weather signal is the negative to positive phase shift of both
    the EPO / WPO . Initially negative, parent to the La Nina and -PNA,
    higher heights over the NE Pacific / AK yielding deep troughing over
    the heart of the CONUS introduces cross-polar flow ushering shots of
    Arctic air S out of Canada into the N/NE CONUS. This is what gets us
    the dangerously cold conditions Thursday night into Friday. But with
    the shift towards +WPO / +EPO, H5 flow becomes less amplified, more
    zonal. Westerlies increase off the Pacific that usher milder air and
    yield a general mid to upper level height rises across the CONUS. A
    warmer pattern as colder, Arctic air is locked up across N Canada
    into next week. Corroborating signals per forecast NAO/AO becoming
    largely positive. Less intrusion of colder air and absence of a down-
    stream block, all signs point to a progressive pattern across the NE
    CONUS, again milder as well with a storm track more or less across
    the Great Lakes region (inside-runners). Any wintry outcomes mainly
    associated with over-running before changing over to all rain. Will
    highlight the details in the discussion below.

  11. In the FWIW department, here are some Saturday snow totals from the Euro:

    Boston (logan): 1.6 inches
    Brookline: 2.4 inches
    Norwood: 3.3 inches
    Woburn: 3.7 inches
    Billerica: 4.7 inches
    Sutton: 4.4 inches
    Worcester: 5.3 inches
    Fitchburg: 6.0 inches
    Concord, NH: 5.7 inches
    Waterbury, CT: 5.9 inches
    Burlington,VT: 3.6 inches
    Providence,RI: 0.6 inches

    1. how does PayPal work. I am not totally sure and do not want to make an account with them, until I fully understand what it is and how it works. I also wondering how much it actually is for the euro system. I would really like it for the winter season, but do they automatically cancel if you do not pay it etc or do they charge your card until you cancel it.

      1. Matt,

        Unless you want to make arrangements to pay by check each month, you have to set up an account with PayPal.

        Once it is set up, the arrangement with Eurowx.com is that
        your PayPal account will be billed monthly UNTIL such time that you cancel. I am sure you can open an account and keep it for the Winter and then cancel in the Spring ($9.95 per month).

        Good luck

      2. If I may add. You’ll need to place a credit card to create an account. I know you mentioned previously that you only have a debit card. If it is possible for you to apply for an AMEX, that is what I would advise. There are AMEX cards that do not have a yearly fee. AMEX is by far the most superior when it comes to cybersecurity and working with a customer to resolve issues if they should arise.

        1. Thanks for the info Vicki, I seriously wish they taught this stuff in High school as a required class (junior year of high school)

          1. Mac was not openly vocal about much but it frustrated him to no end that high school does not teach this type of thing.

            1. Our bank participates in Credit for Life fairs in local schools which teaches this sort of thing. Unfortunately it is just a one day event but it is a good reality check for high school students.

  13. I am DIGUSTED with the results of the 12Z GFS run. PATHETIC!!!!!

    I simply hope that it is DEAD wrong and is completely missing something.

    2. GFS doesn’t have that “bagginess” in the isobars on the warm front that the NAM and EURO do. Kind of zooms the warm front through, which seems totally against December climo considering that’s not a sub 990 mb system passing to our west. …… I’m not taking the GFS to heart on a quick warm front passage inland, but I don’t think it’s error translates to a lot more snow inland. I think it means cooler surface temps than projected inland after a bit of snow.

  14. I don’t trust the GFS past 3 or 4 days given the run to run variability. Quite frankly I don’t trust any models past a few days right now.

  15. If one needs inspiration, look at the hrs 360 to 384 hr panels on the GFS and allow yourself to dream. 🙂 🙂 🙂

    I’m trying to help 🙂 🙂

    1. Tom, brought a smile to my face. 😀 😀 😀

      Of course, we ALL know that is pure fantasy bullshit at this point.
      BUT, I’ll play along. Here is the snow map for it:

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016121412&time=72&var=ASNOWI&hour=384

      Surface temps in the middle of this thing:

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016121412&time=72&var=ASNOWI&hour=384

      850MB temperatures are excellent for snow, so that is not the problem.

      Also total qpf is:

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016121412&time=72&var=APCPI&hour=384

      THEREFORE, we have boundary layer issues and we have a MIX or snow to RAIN to Snow for that accumulation OR finally an unbelievably low ratio
      like 4 or 5:1 OR some combination thereof….

      BUT it is MOOT because it AIN’T GONNA HAPPEN.

  16. seriously its been 00z vs 12z for the past few days for the 21st to 23 time frame. the canadian is having a civil war 😛

  17. Until storm origins cease from coming from the Pacific and a blocking pattern becomes more established creating a negative NOA, look for wet rather than white. Storms from Canada that joins with energy from the Gulf give us the greatest opportunity of southern new england winter storms. There is little evidence of that for the remainder of December.

  19. 12Z Euro is complete enough to tally Saturday’s snow plus a bonus Friday snow from snow showers and squalls:

    Boston: Fri 1.3 inches, Sat 2.7 inches
    Brookline: Fri. 0.8 inch, Sat 3.9 inches
    Norwood: Fri 0.2 inch, Sat 4.5 inches
    Sutton: Fri None, Sat 5.9 inches
    Worcester: Fri None, Sat 6.0 inches
    North Adams: Fri 1 inch, Sat 7.7 inches
    Concord, NH: Fri None, Sat 6.3 inches
    Burlington, VT: Fri 1.7 inches, Sat 3.5 inches
    Portland, Me: Fri 1.7 inches, Sat 4.4 inches
    Providence, RI: Fri 0.2 inch, Sat 4.3 inches
    Waterbury, CT: Fri None, Sat: 6.8 inches
    Hartford, Ct: Fri 0.2 inch, Sat 6.6 inches

    I wonder IF the Berks and Southern VT get a Winter Storm Watch/warning out of this? This is a clear uptic from the 0Z run. Perhaps the NAM isn’t so far off
    after all?

      1. I believe so. Also, temps are due to rise into the 50s before
        the next cold front sweeps through. The combination of
        the Rain and the warmth should easily wipe away ALL of the snow
        at least towards the coast. Well inland where perhaps it will
        not get as warm and there will be less rain, perhaps they will
        hold onto some.

      2. That’s assuming that this even occurs. 🙂

        In southern New England most of that snow will be long gone if it does take place.

            1. Ok – sounds good to me.

              What will Sunday night around 5:00 be? Trying to make that our rain date for Fatima. Thank you!

  21. Ha! I know just trying to get some snow to look for without turning cold,damp,and rainy as soon as snow falls. Look forward to a pattern change in January. Let’s hope for not a soaking wet spring.

    On another note 18Z NAM out soon!

    2. Arod, I always think something good is brewing when I see your name appear here. You have given me false hope my friend. 🙂

      1. Unfortunately Sue, nothing good is going to come out of me appearing here. It’s not in the cards for weeks to come.

          1. Come on over for a glass of wine. I’ll give you lessons in patience………we all know how patient I can be. But we will have fun enjoying the wine !!

  23. High Wind Watch up from the NWS for tomorrow night. Looking at some point forecasts, they’re showing gusts up to 60mph.

  24. JP, can you explain what you guys are talking about with the CMC and Euro. Are they just way off on this weekend or overall pattern? Thanks TJ

  25. Those winds will make those air temps feel a whole lot colder.
    Thanks JPDave for posting the 12z EURO amounts. Waterbury is the town over from me is I am glad to see 6.9 forecasted. Ryan Hanrahan posted the first snow map and has 2-4 inches for my area 4-6 northwest CT.

  26. Did I see a new member earlier? “Lovethesunshine” or did my old mind not remember. If new, welcome!! And if not, really nice to see you! Either way a win/win for all of us.

    2. Very nice. One big question, will the winds really be that strong?

      Typically, the NWS over cooks those wind predictions. I wouldn’t imagine
      you would. So, what’s the scoop?

      1. On the forecasts I wrote last night, I had sustained winds 15-30 mph with gusts of 40-50 mph around here Thursday into Friday morning.

        1. Those numbers show Boston closing in on 3 inches and places like norwood receiving 4 inches. I think that’s a bit robust. I like an inch or so in Boston and a couple of slushy inches between 95 and 495 with several inches outside of 495 before the changeover. The NAM amounts should be cut in half IMHO. Time will tell. Either way, not a significant snow producer.

          1. I know you think they are too Robust, BUT the
            Euro has very close to those numbers as well.
            Please see the post I made above.

            It’s only Wednesday and it could still change, but right now, I think the models are onto something here.

            We need to monitor closely. Sure, in the end, you could be correct. I am just not ready to
            totally ditch the more snow scenario right now.

            Will be watching the 0Z runs. 😀

            Oh btw, TK here is where you come in and
            say that Arod is 100% correct. Boston 1 inch or less. 😀 😀 😀

            1. Believe me. I’m rooting for more snow. I don’t think the models are taking into consideration the marine layer with ocean temps in the upper 40s and lower 50s.

              1. There I disagree. I think that
                initially, there will be a light Northerly to Northeasterly flow
                holding back any temperature rise for awhile. Eventually it pushes through and the winds shift to SE or S and it warms up. I just don’t think it happens as fast as the GFS is portraying it.

                This is the fun part of this blog where we get to have a civil conversation about how we think things will play out.

                Even though there are no prospects for a big storm anytime soon, this will suffice to
                keep my interest going for a bit. 😀

                It will be interesting to see what
                does happen.

    1. if we could get the correct set up the warm temps could be a good thing, it helps with storm development.

  30. Thank you, TK.

    Post the upcoming Arctic `blast,’ we’ll enter the zonal flow zone. In SNE, never a good thing for snow and winter lovers like myself. It also puts me in a difficult position regarding my Quebec City trip. The lakes cutters and southeasters (as opposed to nor’easters) are mostly rainy around here, but not up north. The cold tends to stick around quite a bit longer and really doesn’t get dislodged, which means … snow to extended periods of ice and freezing rain. Slated to head up this weekend, but the roads will be treacherous. It’s not the snow I worry about as much as freezing rain. And that looks like a theme this weekend up north with temperatures not getting above freezing. If I have to cancel or postpone a day or two so be it. There are plenty of nice things to do around here.

  32. Saturday looks cooler. (light to border line moderate snowfall) I do not think people along and outside 495 and north of the pike I think we see an icy mix come mid to late Saturday afternoon. Then it warms up before the next round of precipitation some time after midnight Saturday night/Sunday morning before the periods of rain end by noon time. I also do not think temperatures do not get as warm as advertise for Sunday morning. Crash in temps in the afternoon?

    1. sorry I do not think people along and outside of 495 and north of the pike see plain rain. till Saturday night/Sunday morning

  33. I think Boston will be looking at a scenario just like this past Monday maybe an inch or 1.5 . After a cold Thursday and even colder Friday I think the warm air gets in here fairly quick Saturday morning . This is just my opinion. Looking like rain again next week with temps possibly in the upper 40s

      1. For Boston for areas along the water yes, but for most of the state especially north of the pike and interior locations i think we have a hard time getting rid of the lower level cold. Sunday will be warm thats for sure but even then I do not think people north of the pike see temperatures leave the 40s.

        1. Agreed and that’s where icing becomes involved. But due to the overrunning event, snow will quickly change to mix and then rain in Boston and the surrounding suburbs. Places to the far north and west may experience prolonged icing before going over to rain Saturday evening but no major snow anywhere in southern new england is expected.

    2. Sorry, This is not the place.

      You were to chime in above. 😀

      5 models say about 3 inches or possibly a bit more.

      What sayeth you Mr. Wizard? 2 inches
      OR precisely 2.7 inches? 😀 😀 😀

  37. Sorry, was at the Winterfest concert at Woburn High School.

    I’ll take a look at some new guidance before I expand on my thoughts.

  38. The type of storm that makes me go up the wall even more than storms that give a messy mix of snow, ice and rain are snow storms that give areas south and East of Boston a bunch of snow and we get nothing. No use for snow south and east of boston… Im selfish in wishing you guys get rain/mixing issues 😛 Stating this because of what comes up on the 21st

  39. 0Z Euro snow map for Satuday

    http://imgur.com/a/cUMIq

    Selected location totals:

    Boston: Fri 1.1 inch, Sat 3.5 inches
    Brookline: Fri 0.7 inch, Sat 4.0 inches
    Norwood: Fri 0.2 inch, Sat 4.6 inches
    Weymouth,ma: Fri 1.5 inch, Sat 2.5 inches
    Woburn: Fri 0 , Sat 4.7 inches
    Sutton: Fri 0.2 inch, Sat 5.4 inches
    Worcester: Fri 0 , Sat 5.3 inches
    Princeton: Fri 0.2 inch, Sat 5.8 inches
    Pittsfield: Fri 0.4 inch, Sat 6.8 inches
    Waterbury,ct: Fri 0 , Sat 7.0 inches
    Burlington,vt: Fri 1.4 inch, Sat 3.6 inches
    Concord, nh: Fri 0.2 inch, Sat 6.2 inches
    Manchester,nh: Fri 0.1 inch, Sat 5.8 inches
    Portland,me: Fri 1.9 inch, Sat 7.4 inches

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