Thursday Forecast

165 Comments

7:35AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 15-19)
Arctic air moves into the region in waves through tonight and hangs on into early Saturday before being pushed out by a Pacific storm system which will bring a swath of snow eventually transitioning to ice/rain Saturday. Still some detail to be worked out regarding this system and will star to do that in the comments below and then have a full breakdown on the next blog entry. By Sunday we’re going to transition the other way from milder to colder again, and that may bring its own set of interesting weather.
TODAY: Sun and clouds. Isolated to scattered snow showers and snow squalls. Any squalls can contain briefly heavy snow and reduced visibility and produce minor accumulation and slippery travel. Highs 24-32 early, then falling temperatures. Wind W to NW 15-30 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered snow showers and snow squalls. Lows 0-12. Wind NW 20-30 MPH with gusts 40-60 MPH. Wind chill -10 to -25.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers. Highs 14-21. Wind NW 15-30 MPH with higher gusts through early afternoon, diminishing later in the day. Wind chill often below 10.
SATURDAY: Cloudy. Snow developing then transitioning to ice/rain. Lows 10-18. Highs 35-42.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers morning to midday may end as snow.. Temperature 45-55 early, then falling.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 10-18. Highs 25-33.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 20-24)
Still have watch this period for 1 or 2 potential low pressure systems bringing precipitation threats. Temperatures a little closer to seasonable overall.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 25-29)
A weak disturbance bring the chance of rain/snow showers around Christmas and a more important system may approach later in the period.

165 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

    1. Daughter just txtd. Oldest grandaughter who loves weather was watching squall. The sun was out so she asked if they’d have a “snow bow” and then said it looked like they were in a in a snow globe.

  5. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Here are some re-posts from earlier this morning in case some did not see them:

    JPDave says:
    December 15, 2016 at 6:50 AM
    0Z Euro snow map for Satuday

    http://imgur.com/a/cUMIq

    Selected location totals:

    Boston: Fri 1.1 inch, Sat 3.5 inches
    Brookline: Fri 0.7 inch, Sat 4.0 inches
    Norwood: Fri 0.2 inch, Sat 4.6 inches
    Weymouth,ma: Fri 1.5 inch, Sat 2.5 inches
    Woburn: Fri 0 , Sat 4.7 inches
    Sutton: Fri 0.2 inch, Sat 5.4 inches
    Worcester: Fri 0 , Sat 5.3 inches
    Princeton: Fri 0.2 inch, Sat 5.8 inches
    Pittsfield: Fri 0.4 inch, Sat 6.8 inches
    Waterbury,ct: Fri 0 , Sat 7.0 inches
    Burlington,vt: Fri 1.4 inch, Sat 3.6 inches
    Concord, nh: Fri 0.2 inch, Sat 6.2 inches
    Manchester,nh: Fri 0.1 inch, Sat 5.8 inches
    Portland,me: Fri 1.9 inch, Sat 7.4 inches
    Reply
    JPDave says:
    December 15, 2016 at 6:56 AM
    6Z GFS snow map for Saturday

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016121506 &time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=072
    Reply
    JPDave says:
    December 15, 2016 at 6:59 AM
    0z FIM snow map

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim9_jet/2016121412 /t3/totsn_sfc_f090.png

    0Z CMC snow map

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016121500 /gem_asnow_neus_15.png

    3km NAM snow map

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2016121506 /nam3km_asnow_neus_61.png
    Reply

  7. Thanks TK. Squall passing through here in Plymouth, NH. Looks like some good ones on radar down in northeast CT/northwest RI right now as well.

  9. Nice squall indeed that just passed through northern CT. Lasted over 30 min and was a whiteout for a few moments during that period. Ground and roads both whitened. Really wreaked some havoc on my morning commute. Sunny now.

    Was down to 18 already in Coventry when I left.

    1. I was really concerned about the kids on the buses. Grandson’s bus pulled out of here just as it began but he has about a 40 minute ride.

  10. Really surprised to see the NAM, Euro, and even GFS pumping out these 6″ snow totals for west/central MA and northern CT on Saturday. Looking like we may actually end up with a decent front end thump with this one. Certainly more so than the past few systems which quickly changed over.

      1. Surprised in that I thought the models were overdoing the front end thump and there would end up being a trend towards less accumulation and quicker changeover. If anything, they are more robust now. Granted we have a deeper pool of arctic air to scour out with this system as opposed to the last two.

    1. Interesting … The 3km enhancement must think there will initially be some snow showers coming off of Buzzards Bay. Look at that increased projected amount down by the 2 Cape Cod bridges. This, by the way, makes me question every other amount on that map.

      1. Why is not that possible. The initial arctic air is strong and cold.
        There could be some ocean effect snow at the outset before it
        warms enough to put an end to it.

        2. I look at it this way, this is a good test for the 3km. If it’s catching a localized snow enhancement event off of Buzzards Bay, then that’s a sign that this is going to be a great tool for snowfall prediction.

  13. As much as I would love to see the 3k NAM verify, ain’t gonna happen. We’ve seen in the past with systems like this and no blocking, how quickly that strong southerly flow kicks in and overwhelms the column, sending the rain/snow line surging north.

    1. With secondary type system developing in/near our area, surface winds will
      be light. Progged to be only 5-10 mph during the snow part of the event.
      They may pick up later.

      Therefore, I believe that the snow totals being modeled are possible.
      Does it mean it happens? No? BUT more possible than you are depicted,
      in my humble opinion anyway.

      12Z GSF is cranking now. We shall see if it has changed its tune. 😀

  14. Gusting to 24 here. I was just out and even the snow is cold. Squeaks every time I step on it.

    Framingham delayed for two hours tomorrow due to cold. Makes sense to me. In the 37 years we lived there, I believe they had only one delay. It is too big a town to take the chance of the world not getting out so doing it this early makes sense to me.

    And I may have been wrong when I said I understood why communities closer to Boston didn’t delay the other day. A Framingham bus got stuck. Glad that was all that happened.

  16. I think the GFS has a decent handle on it…..2-4″ generally NW of the I-95 corridor and 1-2″ SE. 4-6″ in NW CT, Berkshires and the hills of Worcester Co.

    1. Perhaps. Did you notice the backoff in precipitation intensity?
      I surely did.

      Waiting on the Euro and to a much lesser extent, the CMC.

  17. Wind just blew over a garbage can and sent it crashing into the wall below my window here at work. Then a little gustnado of snow went across the parking lot. Later today should be real interesting!

        1. I would agree. I seem to always be disappointed. We are steadily gusting to high teens low 20s. Perhaps, it is better if they are not too strong since so many have their decorations out.

  18. I think that GFS run will come very close to verifying. Generally a low impact event given the timing, with any snow in the Boston area to be quickly washed away.

    1. Agree on one thing for sure….Any snow that falls in Boston whether it be
      an inch or 4 inches, WILL be washed a way for certain. therefore, I am rooting
      for the higher amount. 😀

  19. Wow, an absolute whiteout just descended here in Plymouth, NH for the past few minutes! Don’t think I’ve ever seen anything like it. Visibility went down well under a quarter mile, probably just a few hundred feet. Winds gusting probably 30mph. Very cool to enjoy from inside, but be careful if you’re in the path of that line, it’ll continue southeast.

    1. I can see it on the Portland Radar. I highly doubt that it will make
      it all the way down to Boston. Perhaps NE Ma. We shall see.

        1. I understand that. I’m just watching it on radar.
          Even if it holds together, it won’t make boston unless
          this some additional development on the Southern end
          of the line. 😀

  21. I am on vacation until the new year!!!!!!!

    I may need it. I keep rearranging the Christmas decorations in the house. I’m a tad out of control with shopping and decorating this year. I suspect it is my way of burying my head in the sand.

  22. The squall line In NH seems to be “connecting” with another line East of Albany draped
    from MA into VT and then into NH. We shall see IF that ever gets here. 😀

  23. Certainly the models have become more aggressive with the front end snow as JPDave alluded to yesterday. I’m just not sold on this solution. I still think Boston comes in under 2 inches. Some of us may end up disappointed. Afterall, since when have the models ever been wrong? 😀

  24. One place that is seeing a storm surge today are the west facing Bayside beaches on the outer Cape.

    12ft tide plus these WNW winds piling the water up. Skaket beach web cam shows water at amazing height up the beach.

    http://www.nausetbeach.org/

    Bottom image …. Top image is nauset beach, on the east side (national sea shore). Not a wave to speak of there.

    1. On a regular high tide at skaket beach, there’s normally a long slope down to the high tide line. Today, the high tide line is not far from the parking lot level, which is incredible.

  25. To me, Saturday’s snow is kind of a paradox.

    On the one hand, the atmosphere needs a decent amount of warm advection to ride over the arctic airmass to produce snow. On the other hand, you can’t have too much warm advection, that’s usually problematic to snowfall.

    It’s like the models want to have max precip development just to our west and then, because the upper flow is so strong from the west southwest, it allows that moderate to heavy precip to surge quickly into New England while it’s still cold enough. I mean, look at where the actual low pressure area is on 12z Saturday.

    That sounds like “stringing out a system or its energy to me”, which usually has said system underachieve.

    So, I’m still wary of this kind of front end dump happening. What happens if that initial moisture surge either scoots to our south, isn’t as strong as modeled because as it gets further eastward, it’s getting further away from the dynamics that developed it in the first place?

    And of course, there’s always the fact that a low is developing to our west, a high is retreating to our east and as a result, how fast is the boundary layer going to get moderated from south to north?

    It will take until tomorrow, with the models still showing this front end dump, to say, ok, it’s coming.

    1. Don’t under estimate the ability of overunning warm air to produce snow, even
      if way out ahead of the “primary” area of low pressure. Also, I would caution
      that there looks to be some sort of secondary development that could
      also enhance the snow and keep it in here a bit longer.

      Don’t dismiss snow possibilities just yet.

  26. FWIW, the 12Z Euro has dropped the snow total for Boston just a tad
    from 3.5 inches to 3.1 inches for Saturday. Then it also has 1.4 inches between
    1PM today and 1AM Tomorrow.

    Here is the run total snowmap through Sunday:

    http://imgur.com/a/XzRIX

  27. Btw, That squall line, what is left of it, is fast approaching boston.
    We shall see what IF anything is left of it when it arrives shortly. 😀

    1. Looking pretty dark out there, almost like an approaching summer thunderstorm, but not quite that vicious.

  28. WIMP! Well there was a bit of very light snow and that was about all she wrote.
    It tried, but failed miserably.

      1. With the exception of a little bit more I think you’ll possibly be saying the same on Saturday . Just think the warm air will win out . I may Be totally wrong as well.

        1. John, I am sorry at present I cannot agree with you.
          Perhaps tomorrow I will agree with you, but not
          the way things look right now. 😀

    1. Leaving on vacation that day – may end up just taking the inland route towards the high pressure, down Interstate 81.

  30. Very solid squall moving through Wilmington. Moderate to bursts of heavy snow, tiny flakes so visibility has stayed good.

  31. 2PM Obs from Logan

    Boston, Logan International Airport, MA
    (KBOS) 42.36056N 71.01056W
    2 Day History

    Mostly Cloudy and Windy
    23.0 °F
    Last Updated: Dec 15 2016, 1:54 pm EST
    Thu, 15 Dec 2016 13:54:00 -0500
    Weather: Mostly Cloudy and Windy
    Temperature: 23.0 °F (-5.0 °C)
    Dewpoint: -8.0 °F (-22.2 °C)
    Relative Humidity: 25 %
    Wind: from the Northwest at 29.9 gusting to 42.6 MPH (26 gusting to 37 KT)
    Wind Chill: 5 F (-15 C)
    Visibility: 10.00 miles
    MSL Pressure: 1006.7 mb
    Altimeter: 29.73 in Hg

  32. Latest OBS from the Boston Bouy, located 16 NM due East of Boston:

    Conditions at 44013 as of
    (12:50 pm EST)
    1750 GMT on 12/15/2016:
    Unit of Measure: Time Zone: Select
    Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.

    Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): WNW ( 290 deg true )
    Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 29.1 kts
    Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 36.9 kts
    Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 4.9 ft
    Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 5 sec
    Average Period Average Period (APD): 4.3 sec
    Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): WNW ( 303 deg true )
    Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.62 in
    Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.01 in ( Falling )
    Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 26.6 °F
    Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 48.6 °F
    Wind Chill Wind Chill (CHILL): 9.5 °F
    Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M): 31.1 kts
    Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M): 33.0 kts

    Note: after traveling 16 miles over 48 degree water, the temperature is still 26.6.
    I find that interesting. 😀

  34. Moderate snow squall at 2PM here in Woburn. Lighter snow shower underway just now. First one heavily dusted the ground. This one should be slightly less but is it packing a ton of wind!

  35. snow squals coming through Umass Boston. While over looking the city from my lab, I see the clouds rolling in along a front, its cool

  37. I’m growing more confident that Boston sees more snow around the 12/22-12/23 period than the city sees during the wee hours of Saturday morning.

      1. But that does not necessarily mean nothing happens Saturday.
        I could mean Boston gets 3 inches Saturday and gets 6-10 inches
        on 12/22-12/23. 😀 😀 😀

    2. Agree. It’s still a 4 day window for now because of the distance needed before the energy is better sampled.

    3. I really hope you’re wrong about the 23rd. I have to pick my cat up from being an inpatient at a veterinary hospital in Wakefield… I live in Chelmsford. He hates being in the car, so the drive alone will be stressful, but coupled with ME being nervous driving in snowy weather… ugh…. If it snows AFTER we’re home on the 23rd (meaning evening/night; I have to get him at 3:00), I don’t care. Let it snow. Just not before or during. Alas, we’re more than a week out – things can change in the weather world 🙂

  39. Had a nice snow squall about 8:15 this morning. Now will see if anything else happens. Those winds will howl tonight.

    2. That’s about right in terms of who sees more snow and who sees less but the totals are inflated globally especially closer to the coast.

  43. Thank you, TK.

    Robert Frost kind of weather: In the short span of 3 days we’ll see everything from single digits to mid 50s; snow, sleet, and rain; wind and calm; gray overcast and bright sunshine. Never a dull moment. This isn’t San Diego after all.

  45. From NWS:

    — Changed Discussion —
    ***Localized Brief Heavy Snow Squalls Possible This Evening***

    ***Damaging Wind Gusts/Bitterly Cold Wind Chills Into Fri AM***

    Also re: Saturday:

    Models are hinting at weak frontal wave development
    early Sat which could initially lock in cold air in the low lvls
    until strong LLJ is able to counter.

  46. Alright, the signal has maintained into the 18z model runs and it’s only about 30 to 36 hrs out til precip arrives.

    I guess 2 to 3 inches in Boston seems reasonable, a bit less south and east and a bit more N and W.

  47. Those winds tonight could mean business.
    Too bad the snow will be washed away but hopefully I will get more than 2 inches which was the biggest total of the seven snow events I have had.

    1. We should make it back to 40+ by next Thursday if we are not being impacted by a wave passing south of the region. I am not sure about timing yet.

  49. I still maintain that boston comes in just under 2 inches but whether they receive 1.5 or 2.5, there isn’t much difference.

    1. It doesn’t matter to me I’ll be in early to work it . Hey Tk how about chiming in some on this . How early is it in 4am

      1. Current estimate of start time in Boston: 2AM to 4AM.
        Current estimate of snowfall for Boston (Logan): 1.5 to 2 inches.

      1. Last 2 Christmas’, the high in Boston has been 62F and 59F.

        I’m not sure where you want to go with that Weatherwiz …..

        1. He has been targeting me for a while Tom just let it go. Eventually he will realize that I have better things to do with my life

  51. GFS has consistently shown 1-3″ for Boston and surrounding areas, usually on the higher end of that range. 3-6″ outside 495 unless freezing rain and sleet cut into it.

  54. 19 school systems in CT delaying start of school due to the cold. Any schools delaying start of school up in Massachusetts?

    1. Framingham delayed. Medford closed. Don’t know about others. Daughter said Uxbridge considered a delay but it’ll be just as cold after 2 hours so asked parents to drive if they could. To me, it is always wise to ere on the side of caution when children are involved

      1. If the wind chills are going to be -10 to -20 you don’t want kids standing out there waiting for a bus.

      1. That again depends on town. If it is a large town such as Medford Coordinating a delay is really difficult.

        Do you think it will be warmer at 8:30 than 6:30 or 9:30 than 7:30? I was curious about that when Uxbridge said 2 hours wouldn’t make a difference.

  55. At lowes in dedham picking up some items. I figured it will be an all blizzard by the time I load up the car.

  58. Wind howling. Our neighborhood is carved into the side of a hill so surrounded by raised woods. Winds come down the hill and I to the “bowl.” All I hear is the constant roar in the surrounding trees. I love the sound.

    And for what it is worth…..a plug nickle….I have heat on for first time all day. Set to 67

    And we will drip water tonight….hot water 😉

  59. My two advisors said it would look bad for me to do the regular capstone due to my gpa being high. So they suggested the honors research.So in the Spring I be needing to start doing every step of research including proposal and asking for Grants. This is basically a taste of what grad students deal with. Any suggestions for Grant writing /research proposals from those in the research fields of science

  61. I don’t know what I was worried about. It does not snow where I am. Some light snow once I got home. Worst sliding south.

  63. 0z NAM guidance is definitely higher than the rest on the snow totals. NWS said they were leaning away from the NAM, but also came out with a pretty high snow map compared to most others I’ve seen, so not sure what to think about that. I don’t think we can completely discount the higher snow totals, or more prolonged frozen precip, snow or otherwise. Some very cold air out in front. In particular, if the precip gets in a little faster than expected, snow could pile up pretty fast in the pre-dawn hours of Saturday up through mid-morning, obviously lasting longer the farther north you go. We can reevaluate tomorrow; still entirely possible the warm surge is faster as well.

    The 2.5km Canadian is a cold solution also; in fact, the 18z run is just getting the freezing line to Boston by 18z Saturday.

  67. Maybe a little too much time on my hands with my exams over but needing to stay at school til tomorrow for a commitment here… been passing time by looking at weather stuff, of course 🙂

    Just got a look at the new Euro weeklies run from tonight. That package had a generally rough autumn season but seems to have settled down as we’ve gotten into winter, and I like the look it’s giving tonight, which combined with the CFS weeklies and my inclination of what the teleconnections will be doing gives me decent confidence on how things should play out for quite awhile. Talking general pattern of course. We’re cold now, obviously. Gradual moderation but only from well below normal to near normal for the next 7-9 days, with a brief much warmer period on Sunday because of the weather system that will be impacting us. A couple of storm systems possible just before or around Christmas. Then I think we get into at least a few days of well above normal temperatures brought on by a strong ridging pattern in the East, from around Christmas to New Year’s. Below normal precip in this time as well. The warm/ridging/dry-ish pattern continues to dominate in early January but gradually breaks down through 1/15. Around that time we should see more wholesale pattern changes back to colder and presumably with a higher risk of meaningful snowfall, since the latter should be below to well below normal for the 30 days starting 12/20, which I mentioned the other day and continue to feel good about. So those are my long range pattern thoughts; will probably lay off the long range side of things for awhile now and see how I do with this…

    1. Good stuff. I already need a bit of a break from the cold. Would like to get outside some during school vacation, hoping for some relatively mild weather.

    1. Agree. I’m worrying about a nativity I got from teak isle this year. It has a stability kit but the wind is crazy strong.

      My faucets are dripping. But the sound is interfering with wind and Christmas music 🙁

  70. Before anyone complains about how cold it is, here’s the forecast I just wrote for the radio station we forecast for in Jamestown, ND:

    Today: Breezy with light snow likely. High 0 to 5 above zero.
    Tonight: Breezy with light snow tapering off late. Low 15-20 below zero. Total accumulations ranging from 1-2” north of Jamestown to 3-5” near the SD border.
    Tomorrow: Becoming partly sunny, breezy, and frigid. High around 10 below zero.
    Tomorrow night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 20-25 below zero.
    Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds, breezy. High 0 to 5 above zero.

    Yeah, that looks like a fun place to be this weekend.

Comments are closed.