Friday Forecast

273 Comments

1:51AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 16-20)
Arctic cold keeps its hold on southern New England today with dry weather and gradually diminishing wind as high pressure moves overhead. The rapid progression of weather systems means that a low pressure area will approach the region Saturday, with a large area of overrunning snowfall as milder Pacific air attempts to dislodge the cold air in place, and it will be rather stubborn to go at first, meaning that a moderate accumulation of snowfall may occur in a good portion of the region Saturday morning. As surface temperatures are slow to warm while it does warm up more easily aloft, precipitation will change to rain that will likely freeze on existing snowcover and other surfaces. A plus may be that the precipitation may move out of the region before we have a chance to see much ice accretion. By Saturday evening and the early hours of Sunday, the milder air will finally overtake the region, but it won’t be around along, as a cold front will come chugging along, producing a period of rain showers Sunday morning and midday. If enough moisture hangs around behind the front, the precipitation could end as a mix or snow. What is more certain is that a fairly rapid temperature drop will result in a freeze-up of softened snow and any melt-water and rain water, so by Sunday night and early Monday it may be quite icy in some locations. Monday itself will be a dry and cold day as high pressure moves in. For the time being, it appears that Tuesday will also feature fair but chilly weather.
TODAY: Sun and a few clouds. Highs 15-23. Wind NW 15-30 MPH with higher gusts morning, diminishing during the afternoon.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Snow developing west to east after 2AM. Lows 12-20. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY: Overcast. Snow in the morning changing to rain south to north except freezing rain away from the coast by midday before ending. Snow accumulation before change over 1-2 inches South Coast and Cape Cod, 2-5 inches I-95 corridor to the I-495 belt, 5-8 inches north central MA and southwestern NH. Temperatures rise slowly to around 32 north and near 40 south by the end of the day. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Spotty drizzle and a slight chance of rain showers. Patchy fog. Temperatures rise into the 40s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog early. Rain showers likely morning and midday, may end as mix/snow from northwest to southeast afternoon. Highs 48-55. Wind SW 10-20 MPH morning shifting to NW with higher gusts afternoon.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 15-22. Highs 27-34.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Lows 12-20. Highs 30-38.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 21-25)
Low confidence on timing but at the moment it looks like the best chance of a system bringing rain/mix/snow would be later December 22 to early December 23. Mainly dry weather would start and end the period, including the Christmas Holiday and the start of Hanukkah. Temperatures during this period will be closer to seasonal normals.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 26-30)
A fairly active Pacific jet stream pattern continues with one or two storm threats possible during this period. As is expected this time of year, precipitation type would depend on track and overall set-up, but odds would favor rain as it looks like milder air will dominate with a northward-displaced jet stream in this area.

273 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  1. In my forecasts tonight, I’m leaning towards a 4-8 hour period of icing across southern NH/interior MA, with temps not getting above 32 until near or just after midnight Saturday night. My thinking is that the warm air won’t have much trouble moving in aloft, but at the surface, with little wind, the warm air will have a really hard time dislodging the arctic air already in place. The models always try to move cold air out too quickly in these situation, and as I mentioned already, there’s no forcing at the surface until nighttime. My big concern is that the cold air remains locked in across southern NH, and we only see a brief warmup as the cold front moves through. We’ve seen that enough times too.

    As for snow, I have 3-6″ from southwest NH into N central MA, a general 2-5″ for most everyone else outside 495 and into southern/central NH, with 2-4″ for Boston, 1-3″ south of Boston, and under 1″ on the Cape.

  2. Thanks TK
    Fingers crossed for later next week that system will produce snow so we have a White Christmas.

  7. Good morning and thank TK and also a thanks to SAK for that update.

    It just looks like we end up with a little break away wave locking in the surface cold for
    the most part, until the warmer system finally moves North of us. I’ve seen this set up before.

    I like the 2-4 and 2-5 amounts mentioned by SAK & TK for the I95 zone. “could” end up on the high side of those ranges and “possibly” a tad more. We shall see.

    Anxiously awaiting the 12Z runs.

    FWIW, the 0Z Euro has 3.4 inches for Boston.

    2. that 4-6 slices through neighborhoods of boston (including mine), but downtown and logan are in the 3-4 inch zone.

  14. I feel those amounts for Boston to high 4-6 slices through the neighborhoods . I could be wrong but the cold is not here all day it should be raining in Boston by mid morning I suspect .

  15. Thanks, TK.

    I am not enjoying this very cold weather. But I’ll take lots of snow with temps. in the 20’s. Looks so pretty out until you step outside!

    1. Just got into the office. Pretty chilly this morning, yet there was something
      really invigorating about it. It had a nice feel to it, even though it was very cold.

      This is more like it. May we please have some more.

      Now the anticipation builds for tomorrow.

      How much will it snow?

      I like the Euro 3.4 inches for Logan.

      I am liking about 4 inches for my house.

      Let’s see what we get.

      Not for nothing, but averaging out all of the models and we are
      in for “”about” an 8-12 hour period of snow. Intensity and how long
      it stays snow will determine the final accumulation.

      Ratios will start at “close” to 15:1 and cruise down to about 8:1 or so.

      0.4 inch of qpf at 15:1 is 6 inches. at 10:1 is 4 inches. at 5:1 is 2 inches.

      And qpf “may” be higher than 0.4 inch.

  16. Hit 0 this morning. Still patches of snow hanging around from the snow on Monday. Whatever dusting fell yesterday during the squalls was blown away during the night.

  17. Can you say SUBLIMATION? Sure had a lot of that going on with a Dew point of
    -16. Virtually ALL of the squall snow from last night is gone! Poof!

  18. Was 1 when I checked at 7:00 so suspect we could have been at zero. Cracked window just a tad and loved listening to the wind in the night. Natures “white noise”

    Sun has warmed it to a balmy 7.0

  20. JPDave what is the 0z EURO showing for me tomorrow?
    Many thanks. Lets hope we get that snow to deliver some snow late next week for White Christmas.

  21. Memory lane time….sorry, folks but I suspect this is my kind of weather because it elicits so many wonderful memories.

    I remember waking up early to get to the slopes before they became too crowded. I’d lace up my ski boots (yep, they had laces back then) and check the snow type and wax my skis (yep, we also had to use different waxes dependent on snow type). But then when my dad started skiing, he used barrel slate so we had all the newest and most modern equipment 🙂 Then my dad and brother and I would head out to take the blanket off the engine of the car. There would be a row of cars with blankets on their engines and hood pushed down as far as they could be in the hotel parking lot. Then we would hope it would start. As I recall, it always did. Once the car was warmed up, my mom would appear 🙂 Smart lady!

  23. 12z NAM represents a BACK OFF in the snow. Here it comes!!
    Delay in start of the snow and a more rapid warming aloft.

    Here is the 850mb 0C line at 18Z

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2016121612&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=030

    Here is snowmap as of that time:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016121612&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=031

    We now only get a 5-7 hour window for it to snow before flipping over.
    We “may” get some sleet before going to rain, but it won’t add to the accumulation, just delay the melt some.

  25. NAM showing about half foot for my area. The 0z run made no sense to me how Boston had more snow than my area would get as I am inland.

    1. The models have backed off.
      4KM NAM has barely 2 inches for Boston, while the 3KM NAM has about 3 inches.

      Let me post them:

      12KM NAM (10:1)

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016121612/namconus_asnow_neus_17.png

      4KM NAM (10:1)

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2016121612/nam4km_asnow_neus_17.png

      3KM NAM (10:1)

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2016121612/nam3km_asnow_neus_44.png

      Still on track for well inland, but it has backed off for coastal areas.

  27. I’m sticking with 1- 1.5 with 2 being the max for Boston especially if it gets delayed getting going.

    1. So you’re the real “Debbie Downer”, eh? 😀

      Looking at these 12Z runs, what you say would not surprise me.
      Let’s see what the other models have to say, especially the 12Z Euro.

      I want to see the HRRR as well as it get into range.

      I purposely have not posted the SREF well because honestly, I didn’t like what it was saying. BUT perhaps it has been onto something all along.

      Here is a plot of the 12 hour snow.

      http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_SNOWFALL_MEAN12HR_f033.gif

      You will note that it has 1-2 inches for Boston and that is it.

      HMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM

        2. Are you getting this information from a source, John, or just guessing? Hard to tell but I think good for those who are reading to know.

          1. I think he is going by his “gut”.

            Last night I would have said NO WAY!
            Now, I’m not as sure. I need to see more
            information. I cannot go by the NAM alone.

            IF the GFS and EURO back off as well, then
            coastal areas will NOT get as much.

            We have to wait and see. 😀

          2. Both Vicki guidance & gut . As I mentioned before timing is the key is it say 3-10 before the air change or delayed 5 or six start time.bit of a wildcard but thinking warm air is in faster in my honest opinion . Let’s see if next run backs that thinking , who knows. Hope I answered your question Vicki.

            1. Arod has been saying the same thing . And as I have said and always said I could be wrong . Ch 5 has some great maps if anyone is interested as they did a big makeover online.

              1. Yes, he has.

                last night I was certain that
                Boston would have MORE than
                1.5 inches.

                GFS will be cranking very shortly.
                We shall see what it has to say.

  28. FWIW, here are the 9Z SREF plumes (ie ensemble members) for total snowfall.

    http://imgur.com/a/v13TN

    Click on image to enlarge.

    FYI: The total snow totals for Boston range from a low of 0.56 inch to a high
    of 3.24 inches.

    Pretty nifty chart.

    I will look at the 15Z run when ready later today.

  30. Still don’t think Logan really can get more than 2. I’m very much in agreement with SAK on amounts except mine are slightly higher in a couple spots for now. Final tweak tonight.

      1. TK – a profit??? I’m not going to argue with that. I type that as I sit here shaking my head at his uncanny accuracy in his forecasts.

        I’ll, however, remain in camp snow as I believe there was the promise of wine as an enticement!! Sue????

  31. I don’t think we should directly focus on Logan as it sticks out into the ocean. We have had this discussion before as just a bad place to be taking measurements.

  33. Yes not a big storm but I think some of the surrounding neighborhoods will be around 4inches. Will see I’m usually wrong but fun to watch at least.

  36. Well let’s let it happen first. SAK would agree I’m sure that a smart forecaster will stop at confidence and avoid cockiness because Mother Nature despite being a mom has no problem using her middle finger. 😉

    1. Best advice and quote ever and has a much broader application than just meteorology for sure!

  37. Some lady just walked down my street walking her dog. She had on a heavy coat, hat, shorts, and flip flops. Holy mackerel. She just lives 2 houses up but still.

  38. TK – Any chance I can get away with not shoveling in my area given those 50+ temps overnight Saturday through most of Sunday? I have yet to get out my shovel. I lucked out the last time from early Monday’s event.

    2. NO way. Sun angle too low. And 50-55 won’t do it. You’d need 60+ and a strong southwest wind for several hours. And as Matt said the temp dives so even a partial melt would screw ya over as it froze back up.

  41. Vickie – your earlier post and the pictures you painted actually forced me to enjoy this bitter blast too – albeit for all of 15 minutes! But I’m going to keep it for the Jan and Feb zero degree mornings ahead…

  43. 12Z Euro has come in with a DECIDED uptic in Snow for tomorrow.

    Boston: 4.1 Inches
    Brookline: 4.9 inches
    Woburn: 5.6 inches
    Sutton: 6.5 inches
    Worcester: 6.4 inches
    North Adams: 6.8 inches
    Brockton: 5.2 inches”
    Weymouth: 3.4 inches
    Marshfield: 1.0 inch
    Waterbury,ct: 6.3 inches

    Here is the snow map and the surface map (click on image to enlarge)

    http://imgur.com/a/lJ9lc

    That wave development “just” South of the area is the Reason there is more
    snow.

    1. Btw, the Euro has the temperature dropping back below freezing in
      the Boston area Saturday evening, before going back up later.

        1. Billerica.
          5.7 inches of snow, NO ice accretion.

          Worcester shows 0.03 ice accretion.

          Holden shows 6.6 inches of snow and 0.05 inch of
          ice accretion.

          Pepperell shows no ice accretion.

    3. Thanks JpDave for throwing in Marshfield 🙂 🙂 🙂

      It may sometimes appear that I don’t care for snow, but when we receive it, I actually hate watching it melt. Depressing.

      I like for snow to stay on the ground for a while for days after it has fallen.

  45. The 12/23 event now is TOO warm on the 12Z Euro yielding a bit of light rain. It was
    never a biggie anyway. After Monday or Tuesday next week, it looks fairly warm
    for a period of time, until the end of the Euro run anyway. Until after Christmas.

    1. That surprised me ……… I only looked at 850mb, which looked somewhat ok. Temps around or a little below 0C from 12z Tuesday to 12z Wednesday. Must be the boundary layer ??

        1. Exactly …. and thanks !! The vast amount of info you provide this blog is superior and so very helpful !!!!

  46. Still looking like a couple of inches max for the city of boston with a few inches around I95 and several inches outside 495 before the changeover to rain or mix dependent upon where you live. Forecast on track.

    1. Totally agree. I think the concentration after this should be Sunday night / Monday morning with some ice hazards.

  47. Thanks JP for the links. The Canadian also showed the low developing further south as well. Next week just watching at the moment.

    1. TJ. I have always admired your passion and positive energy for snow. I remember being the same exact way. It’s nice to see

  50. Driving from Natick to Providence tomorrow for a basketball game (go Friars!)–leaving around 10:30 am. Snow or rain?

    2. SNOW transitioning to Rain as you head South, imho anyway. Be careful
      coming back, because after a period of rain, temps likely to fall back with
      rain changing to or mixing with sleet and/or possible freezing rain.

  53. Things to keep an eye out for with this system. Couple tweets from NY NJ PA weather. Lets see if this happens
    Interesting evolution on mesoscale guidance is low developing off NJ coast tomorrow morning.
    This process, if verified, would keep colder air in place longer.

    1. That’s what I have been saying. Euro shows it. The CMC shows it.
      The 18Z NAM also shows it, although just a tad farther North.

      I think we are getting a COlder solution. I said this yesterday or early
      this morning, we are basically getting 2 systems. The initial burst
      of snow is from a little wave on the warm front keeping Cold in here. When it moves off into the Gulf of Maine, it will draw the colder air back for a while until the 2nd burst of precipitation comes from an inside runner/cutter moving N&W of us at which time it will warm up at least briefly before
      falling back again and perhaps dramatically.

  54. 18Z NAMs have snow commencing between Midnight and 2 AM with it going over
    to Rain between 11 AM and Noon.

  56. This is a meteorologist at NY NJ PA who tweets. I have read his tweets and to me the guy knows what is he talking about.

  58. Looking at everything solid advisory level snowfall for interior SNE. Would not be surprised to see few 6 plus inch amounts.

  62. Home in Wrentham! Didn’t really expect to see any snow on the ground but there’s still a few patches. Quick peek at model guidance reveals everything on track. I think 2-4″ Boston-Providence along I95. 1-3″ south and east of that corridor. 4-7″ along and outside of 495, so a solid moderate snow event in those areas. Not a whole lot of surprise potential with this. One wildcard to watch for is the icing potential, if the surface is slow to warm. Doesn’t take much to cause problems.

    1. Not bad. I think the 2-4 in the I95 corridor applies to eastern Sections of Boston and Quincy. I think the Boston neighborhoods (ie Brighton, Jp, W. Roxbury Hyde Park) see 3-5 or pehaps a tad more. just my opinion.

      2. Certainly possible, and we’ll have to see how well Logan actually represents most of the city. I’ll say 2.9″ for the airport, but just a couple miles inland could be higher.

        1. 2.9 wouldn’t surprise me for Logan. Euro had them
          at 4.1.

          It will be interesting (at least for this season) one way
          or the other.

          I need to locate my yard stick. I couldn’t find it Monday morning.

  63. This tweet from Ryan Hanrahan. Will see if your meteorologists up there increase snow totals
    I’m increasing snow totals for many areas.

  64. I saw that. I think the 8th snow event for my town people will be shoveling. The prior 7 have been .5 1 1.5 inch events.

  65. Question …..

    Does a coastal development, in this scenario, stop the warming at all levels of the column?

    I still think the 850 mb flow is still moderate to strong from the SW.

    There’s no doubt of a signal at a small scale low on the warm front and that could definitely slow surface warming, but is it going to slow warming higher up in the column?

    1. No, it does not totally stop the warming aloft as there is still sufficient forcing aloft. Hopefully, it would retard the process a tad. However, it does keep the surface cold in and perhaps it allows for just enough thickness to keep the snow going for a longer duration. It should be interesting regardless.

  66. GettingBetterAllTheTime – you, as usual, gave me a nice chuckle. I was actually thinking of you when I typed it. It is always nice to see you here! Hope you are close to be prepared for your holidays. Mac’s and my anniversary was last Friday. 38 years ago last Thursday night we had our rehearsal dinner at your favorite Lexington hotel….which of course no longer exists.

  67. According to my AcuRite Weather station, I had a low of 4 this morning and
    a high of 19 this afternoon and it is currently 18. Does that sound about right?

    I see high cloudiness beginning to appear to the West and SouthWest. 😀

    1. Flash freeze Sunday afternoon ….

      There may be an opportunity for most of the roads to dry off before the temps drop significantly. I don’t think that’s (flash freeze) a certainly.

    2. Who said flash freeze? There have been cautions about the temperature
      falling both on Sunday and even tomorrow evening, but I didn’t see
      flash freeze mentioned anywhere. Did the NWS post something?

    2. That flash freeze that they are alerting to is for Saturday afternoon, they are wary of that small scale low on the warm front.

        1. And now in their updated discussion at 4:30 pm, interesting. Well, big bust potential in afternoon temps tomorrow for sure.

  70. short range vs long range models.
    long range models
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016121612/gfs_asnow_neus_7.png
    Canadian
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016121612/gem_asnow_neus_7.png
    gfs par
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2016121612/gfsp_asnow_neus_7.png
    euro (JPDave)
    http://imgur.com/a/lJ9lc (euro is more in line with the short range)
    Short range
    nam 12km
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016121618/namconus_asnow_neus_12.png
    nam 4km
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2016121618/nam4km_asnow_neus_11.png
    3km
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2016121618/nam3km_asnow_neus_31.png
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2016121612/rgem_asnow_neus_16.png

    All based on 10-1 ratio’s. In my opionion we could possibly see higher snow ratio’s to start out.

      1. Who knows …. Maybe some snow survives on the ground Boston, points north and west from this system.

        I do like these small scale features and the challenges of trying to figure out what they will do

    1. I cannot remember. Does your house leak? Is that why you roof rake? I was usually one responsible for roof raking the couple of spots in our old house. But it was a ranch so not too bad unless there was a ton of snow

      1. No I do it proactively…my last house did and it scared me straight to doing it. My house may not have any issue but I can’t bring myself to wait and find out. I miss having a ranch!

          1. Can’t say but I assume so…roof is only 8 years old. The hack contractor at my last house didn’t use any hence the leak.

  75. JPD. You and Philip mentioned a flash freeze Sunday ……earlier today. But tom said sat so I’m thinking you might have meant sat

    1. I am concerned for Sunday especially, since I will be coming home from work between 7 and 9 pm. I guess now Saturday is definite but not sure what if anything happens after Sunday’s rain. Any thoughts?

      1. Sadly I do not know but am also curious as we will be heading to Fatima and then son driving grandson to RI. Lots of people with plans both nights I think

      2. In my opinion, usually a flash freeze in New England, occurs when precip is occurring up to nearly the time the temp drops dramatically.

        I don’t think that happens Sunday. I think there’s a window of time where the roads can dry off and then it turns colder. Yes, there could be puddles that is up, but that would be it.

        Tomorrow though, the roads have a better chance at being wet when the air may fall below freezing in Boston and northeast Mass and thus, in my opinion, a higher chance at seeing icy conditions. An obviously, tomorrow will have travel impact for a while with the snow.

        Summary : travel impacted tomorrow ….. Much, much less so Sunday.

  77. I’m seeing some late indications that colder may be the way to go for tomorrow. It doesn’t represent a big change, but for example I would say my 2-4″ along I95 will probably be closer to the 4 for most, and Dave’s 3-5 may be a better range.

    I mentioned earlier that the “surprise” potential was limited, which I continue to believe, because there are more limitations than just the warm surge. Even if, for example, Boston were to stay all snow (it won’t), we’ll be scrounging for much more than .5″ QPF, and the highest totals in that department will be in areas that turn to mix/rain the fastest.

  78. 00z NAM continues theme of small scale low developing on warm front.

    Remember, multiply NAM snow projections by .4 🙂 🙂

  79. I’m thinking TK’s 2-5″ will verify nicely, with some isolated 6″ amounts inland. HRRR 0z run shows snow starting around 4 AM, but looks like it keeps areas NW of I95 as snow for almost the entire event. Still only shows 3-4″ for those areas, which seems a bit low, could be hinting at lesser moisture than expected. One thing I’ll be watching for on radar tomorrow is a coastal front since the NAM thinks there will be a tight gradient.

  80. Thanks Tom. I hope the sidewalks including my own have a chance to dry off. It will definitely be much colder again on Monday.

  81. Been out this evening. Just looked things over.
    I still think 3-5 is a decent bet. I just looked at the latest SREF plumes.
    It has the mean for Boston at about 3.1 inch. I think Logan will come in close to that and here in JP closer to 4 with an outside chance at 5. We shall see.

    I watched Eric and he said a general 3-6 inches from A decent amount S & E of Boston all the way to the Worcester area.

    Snow is getting close as it appears to be picking up all over not too far West
    of here.

  83. Nature called. Been snowing for a while here. I see nws
    Now calling for 4-6 inches.

    Sure looks like the colder solution is holdingm

  84. Change over delayed a bit with latest tweet from meteorologoist Ed Vallee. I would not be surprised if inland areas closer to the 6 inch mark. Here is his tweet.
    Latest modeling turns snow to sleet in NYC/LI by 10 AM, turns to rain on eastern LI, S CT/RI/MA, but not before 2-4″ coast, 4-6″ inland.

  87. Watching a heavier burst of snow the south of me and see if it maintains intensity at moves into my area.

  89. Well I’m up now. Our street has already been plowed. Although I have not been out yet, it looks like a good 2-3 inches on the ground with perhaps the heaviest precip yet
    to come. Will it change over or not?

    Latest models, including the HRRR, indicate a change over in Boston around
    the Noon hour to 1PM with precip cutting off around 2PM or so.
    So even if it changes, it will end up primarily as a SNOW event. A nice bonus
    after all.

    Looks really Wintry out there. Very picturesque.

  90. Just saw the graphic from Barry’s tweet has Boston in 4-6 inch range.
    Been snowing at a moderate clip where I am for an hour now.

  94. As of right now in Woburn it’s not bad…light snow…field in my yard is largely ecposed still. Can see some of my grass in yard.

  95. Heavier elements are on the way and should be arriving in the Boston area fairly soon.

    This event has turned into a nice little productive snow event. A monster, by no means, but 4-6 inches is a decent Moderate snow event. While I was going to school years ago, it would have resulted in a NO SCHOOL DAY for certain and as a Child I would have
    looked upon today’s event as a typical Snow Storm. So, I am NOT complaining and am
    very grateful for the turn of events.

    We could see this beginning to take shape. I love watching these events unfold.

  96. Dave you were mentioning about a colder solution with this system and its happening.
    I saw the RPM model there showing on tv and by the time the precipitation ends it may do so briefly as rain where I am where prior runs it was turning over to rain a lot quicker.

    1. Gravity waves, if it truly is one, can produce INTENSE precipitation and I mean INTENSE. Like 3-6 inches of snow per hour. Now, those echoes down there
      Are likely to be heavy rain or perhaps sleet or a mix. I don’t think it is snow down there.

      Please keep us posted. That post was awesome!

  99. Just waking up here. Looks to be maybe 3 inches with moderate fine snow. Grass covered but hill behind house has a taller grass so needs more snow to sled. Kids are checking it by the minute

  100. I am watching the radar. The heavier echoes aren’t just moving up here, they
    are expanding like crazy. I think we are in for quite a Burst of SNOW!!!

  101. From what I am reading on twitter it looks like the transition line if is central NJ right now. The changeover in NYC has been delayed to about 9am. These differences in time with regards to changeover will lead to more snow in areas.

    1. Thanks JJ. Awesome post. Very informative. Please keep them coming.

      Temperature has crept up to 26 here. I do NOT like the upward creep
      in the Temperature. Will be monitoring closely.

  103. Huh, was not expecting this much snow that quickly but I’ll take it! 4-6″ is the safest bet at this point, who knows what will happen if that intense precip gets here?

    1. Agreed, likewise, we’re going to exceed 1-2 inches here in Marshfield easily. I think we ready have that. May be headed for 2-4, probably closer to the 4.

  105. Snowing moderately in Coventry CT and closing in on 3″ already. Still only 18 degrees here. I think 6″ will be easy to attain given the low snow ratios. Good call on the colder solution Dave! Nice little storm. Too bad most of it will be washed away tomorrow am.

  108. Rain/snow line is now roughly from New London to Fall River to Plymouth. Also raining now in much of eastern LI.

  111. I have now conceded to the colder solution thanks to the surface low to the south. That was an excellent call by Dave. I also didn’t take into consideration the high snow ratio. Doesn’t take much precip for snow to pile up with temps stuck around 20 for the majority of the storm. Again, Dave has been forecasting this for over two days. Great analysis. I’d expect at least another couple of inches before the changeover.

  112. Radar showing a mix off of the coast of Marshfield and Plymouth. If that continues pushing north Logan would be in trouble. Still think the city itself can resist any warming, especially with the surface low and heavier precip moving in. If that core of moderate to heavy snow holds, this may outperform expectations inland.

    1. I’m not seeing any signs of rain …… It’s cold, there’s no wind.

      Of course, things can change quickly living by the ocean, but still very cold.

        1. 29F.

          Usually, in similar set-ups, it would be in the upper 30s or even milder. No hint of an E or SE wind ….

  114. I have not yet seen truly Moderate snow. Nice steady Light snow at a decent clip, but
    nothing I could call moderate. Hope to see that change for a couple of hours before
    the changeover. 😀

  117. Change over line is creeping north, and may be a little ahead of where the radar shows it. The HRRR looks to have a good handle on everything. Forecast on track.

  118. It’s only 24 here in Wrentham. I think warming aloft is outpacing the surface, so there should be at least a brief period of sleet/ice before changing to plain rain.

  119. I’m around this morning. Have to drop off to correct tests, but I will stop to post if there’s any changeover.

    JpDave …. Super work and super insight into the unfolding colder scenario of this event.

  121. Just measured 5.5 inches and still snow at moderate clip. Easily going to have half foot of snow and maybe a tad more than that.

  123. Agreed good work old salty . I agree never got into a heavy ban here just steady & light. But it covered good. Still thinking rain soon .

  124. Heavier snow is on my door step. Soon.
    Just surveying from the window. Looks like really close to 4 inches on the ground here.
    It is difficult to tell for sure, but I am looking at the snow around the cars where one
    can readily see the depth of it. 4 inches looks close. It may be like 3 1/2 or 3 3/4, but
    it is close. Now if we can grab a couple of inches before it mixes or changes, we’ll be
    in great shape. 😀

      1. By the time that happens, HRRR has precip shut off.

        Hmmm there is a “chance” that this event stays ALL SNOW
        in Boston, at least at my house. I said “chance”. Waiting
        on 13Z run of HRRR.

        1. There is a chance; the 13z run is out on Tropical Tidbits. Boston will go above freezing, but it’s increasingly likely that the meaningful precip will shut off by then.

          1. Yes, I agree totally.

            I don’t know how we manager, but we pulled it off and got our snow event out what at first looked
            like a tropical melt down rainorama. I love it when this happens.

  126. East wind now here in Sharon but still mid 20’s. Snow kinda sorta starting to pick up in intensity. Approaching 3″

  127. Very light E to ESE drift of the wind here. Still holding at 27.

    Snow has picked up a bit. Bordering on MODERATE or IS Moderate. Very close.

  128. Some of those stronger echos portrayed may represent lower snow ratios vs moderate/heavy snow. Just a thought.

    1. Nope, it is heavier snow. Verifying here.
      Officially MODERATE SNOW here in JP.

      Visibility is 1/2 mile or a bit less.

      Could almost call this moderate to heavy, not quite heavy but close enough
      for me. 😀

  131. Calm wind suddenly over to about a 10 mph E wind. Temp jump to 33F. Top layer of snow, 2 inches, is wet. Mix of rain and snow, visibility up to a few miles.

    We do live fairly close to the ocean, so this is for easternmost Marshfield.

  133. Growing up I would have been in 7th heaven to have all that I currently have at
    my disposal to watch storms evolve and monitor their progress. Computer models, Radar displays, Soundings, satellite images and loops, social media and of course
    WHW blog. Truly amazing times!

    1. I’m at the Natick Mall as we speak. Wife and kids are on a marathon shopping challenge. I’m at the bar with a COLD martini and a headache to come

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