Friday Forecast

80 Comments

2:23AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 23-27)
High pressure provides very pleasant late December weather today, favoring for work commutes, errands, and any travel. On Saturday, Christmas Eve, a low pressure system will track eastward across southeastern Canada, dragging a cold front through New England, producing a period of rain, though some brief mix is possible in higher elevations of north central MA and southwestern NH. Another area of high pressure brings very nice weather for Christmas day, Sunday. The next system, similar to that of Saturday in track but somewhat weaker, will bring the chance of rain showers late Monday before fair weather returns on Tuesday.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 39-46. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear evening. Clouds arriving overnight. Lows 25-33. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy through early afternoon with late morning mix/rain higher elevations of central MA and southwestern NH, midday and early afternoon rain elsewhere. Partial clearing west to east late. Highs 40-47. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to W in the afternoon.
SATURDAY NIGHT – CHRISTMAS EVE: Partly cloudy evening. Mostly clear overnight. Lows 22-30. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: CHRISTMAS DAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Late-day and evening rain showers. Lows 28-35. Highs 40-47.
TUESDAY: Sun/clouds. Breezy. Lows 28-35. Highs 40-47.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 28-JANUARY 1)
Timing is likely to bring next system as a rain event into the region about December 29 followed by a shot of colder air to end 2016. Progressive pattern likely brings the following low pressure system into the region to begin 2017 on an unsettled note but will fine-tune.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 2-6)
No significant changes to the large scale pattern with a couple systems bringing precipitation threats with rain favored over snow and temperatures generally above normal.

80 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  1. Meanwhile, there’s going to be one heckuva blizzard in the Northern Plains for Christmas Day into Boxing Day. The forecast I write tonight for Jamestown, ND should be interesting. They are under a blizzard watch for Sunday and Monday.

  4. The Euro, GFS and CMC equally Putrid. If I see another facuckta lakes cutter I am going to yell so loud, they’ll hear me in London!

    Oh well I guess it is time to relax and enjoy the tranquil weather. I feel like it is 2011-2012 all over again. I know different, yet the same as far as I am concerned.

    1. OS, don’t fight it man. Drink up by the fire. The weather will do what it does and it’s only going to give us snow when the pattern flips. Until then, it’s just a waiting game.

      2. Can’t help. Doing the best I can. I know that Nothing can be done about it, nothing at all.

        Very busy at work and with a few other projects, so time shall pass. 😀

  7. Maybe the pattern will shift mid/late January? I would hope so. The past few years now true winter doesn’t take hold until the new year. We will see.

    Btw, today is little Christmas Eve! 🙂

    3. I thought that little Christmas was 1/6 (the day the wisemen arrived?)

      Or am I mis-remembering? or nuts? or other?

      1. I found this:

        January 6th
        January 6th or Little Christmas is a very interesting date on the calendar. Traditionally Yule ended on January 6th. The Christian Calendar celebrates “Epiphany” on January 6th also. Nollaig na mBan (Women’s Christmas) or “Twelfth Night” closed out the Season!

        1. Never saw Women’s Christmas. Philip said little Christmas Eve. You are correct that little Christmas is January 6. My grandson begins Dec 25 moving the Wise Men closer to our manger every day until the 6th.

  8. Thanks TK! Just a few more hours until I am officially out of here until January 3rd. Love my job but boy do I need some time away from this cubicle!!!

  9. I just started to read Dr. Cohen’s blog. I had to stop as I couldn’t stomach his constant
    wavering back and forth. I think this is going to happen, BUT if this happens then it will be this instead. yatta yatta yatta Total BULLSHIT!

    When I weigh through all of the babble, this is what I think is going to happen:
    MILD for the next couple of weeks. A shift to colder that won’t last too long, 2-4 weeks, and back to MILD for the remainder of the Winter.

    In short, for Cold and Snow, we have a very small window of undetermined length
    at this point.

    We shall see.

      1. Retrac, I have ALWAYS been unhinged in case you haven’t
        figured that out. I am obsessed with SNOW in the Winter.
        Always have been. 😀

    2. JP he is saying how different scenarios could happen… That is what researchers do. We have an idea and then we explained one or more possible outcomes. People seem to forget the more possible outcomes.

      1. Yes, that is what he is doing. It may be the way things are done, but for someone trying to figure out what is going to happen, it makes for an impossible read.

        I might just as well say, when I see a pig fly, it will snow.

        1. problem is he did say a forecast, he said what he though will be happening and said what he was leaning towards

          1. Not really. It was like prego, it was in there somewhere. He “should” discuss all of the what ifs and so on, but at the end have HIS DEFINITIVE FORECAST. He does NOT do that. And, I for one, DETEST that.

  10. Anyone recognize anything in this OLD video of the “Rocking RamRods”, one of my favs from my college days. A friend of mine went to school in Newton with 2 of the band members, Ronnie and Vinnie Campisi.

    The Surf Ballroom at Nantasket beach, oh does that bring back memories.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=itk4cBl3g4A

    1. We like to see Topkatt every now and then!!

      Also, helps anyone who is a newer reader to the blog understand why we all call you TK!

  13. Don’t let the media mets fool you into thinking Christmas Eve is a wash out. Some of alluded to such an event. It will probably rain about 3 hours in any given location (earlier west including mix/snow higher elevations) later east especially Cape Cod. But we should see sun before sunset in many areas. Christmas Eve (night time) will be gusty, cool, and dry – a far cry from the summerlike night of our El Nino December 2015.

  14. 12Z GFS shows a bit of promise for New Year’s Day. Not that the pattern has flipped,
    But we finally get a system developing along a trailing cold front well to our
    South. System moves up along the front just about right over Boston.

    No snow on coast, in fact snow limited to far Western Sections and Up North, but
    FAR better than a Cutter. We shall see IF the Euro is thinking along those lines.

    This

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016122312/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_34.png

    to this

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016122312/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_37.png

    With this result (it is run total, but Most comes from this event)

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016122312/gfs_asnow_neus_41.png

  15. Regarding my post above regarding Little Christmas Eve, my aunt used to refer to today as that being the day BEFORE Christmas Eve (tomorrow). As for Little Christmas on January 6, I never heard of it. The date is also when the Three Wise Men arrived bearing their gifts to baby Jesus. 🙂

    I guess we all grow up with different Christmas stories passed down through the generations. 🙂

    1. Mac told me that when he lived in Rome, La Befana would visit the children on January 5 and leave trinkets in the stockings of good children and coal for those who were not as good. The legend, as I recall, was that the Wise Men stopped at the old home of a witch on the last night of their journey to the Manger to ask for directions. They asked her to go with them and she did not. Then shepherds stopped and asked her to go with them and she did not. But when she saw the bright light in the sky, she also decided to go welcome the Christ child.

      I love the stories passed through the generations, Philip. I have always called today Christmas Eve’s Eve so smile when I saw you called it little Christmas eve! It is a nice part of you always thinking of your aunt on December 23.

  16. 12z GFS showing a Northwest Hills of CT special with snow there and everyone else rain for the New Year’s day system.

        1. I am going to guess redevelopment over VA/ or the Delmarva area somewhere and moving up over Boston
          or “Just” East or “just” West of Boston.

          Preliminarily 850mb temps plenty cold enough.

          Dying to see what it really looks like and where
          the rain/snow line sets up. “probably” just West
          of Boston, perhaps as far West as Worcester. We shall see.

            1. How is it a bold call when I ONLY made a guess based on a model forecast map 9 days out? I’m only playing with model output here. I was simply trying to guess
              how one frame progressed to the next. 😀

              1. NOT ONLY that, I had the days ALL MESSED UP.

                That was the 12/29-12/30 system.

                😀 😀 😀

  18. OMG,

    The Euro has a totally and completely different solution for 12/29!!!!!
    It includes a Crapload of snow inland and exactly:

    Logan: 3 inches
    Brookline: 4.8 inches
    Norwood: 5.9 inches
    Worcester: 11.9 inches
    Sutton: 10.3 inches
    North Adams: 13.4 inches
    Holden, MA: 13.9 inches
    Waterbury, CT: 13.9 inches

    Map:

    http://imgur.com/a/qshcw

      1. Its not just that the snowfall amounts are questionable (on their own).

        What’s too bad, for a decently performing model on the whole, is that what it depicts happening at the surface doesn’t equate to its projected snow amounts.

        I remember one a few weeks ago where the primary low was sitting north of Burlington, VT and it had all this heavy snow falling south of it on gusty westerly winds, which never happens …

        And now this one …. a fairly progressive system that develops a secondary late in the game. Those always dry slot so quick. Its pretty unlikely this type of set-up would produce enough precip to come close to these snow amounts.

        I always thought we could at least count on the EURO.

      2. as of late we have seen the secondary coastal development being to weak , being absorbed or happening to far north. It would be great if we could get that to happen. I am just not sure with the parameters in place if that happens or not.

    2. Funny, on WeatherBell, the amounts are all a bit less. Also, I think you misjudged where North Adams is. Using WeatherBell, those totals would be as follows (rounded to the nearest inch):

      Logan: 2 inches
      Brookline: 3 inches
      Norwood: 4 inches
      Worcester: 10 inches
      Sutton: 7 inches
      North Adams: 7 inches
      Holden, MA: 11 inches
      Waterbury, CT: 11 inches

      1. Believe me I know Exactly where North Adams is and those
        totals are off of my Euro Service precisely. Not estimated
        from the grid totals map. Now could this service have a screwed
        up snow algorithm? Certainly.

        Just reporting what was on my service. Check it for yourself:

        http://imgur.com/a/OaFg6

        click on image to enlarge.

  19. 12/29 feels like a model carrot to me. I think TK hit the nail on the head yesterday with the phrase “over-forecasting of triple-point development”. I’ve seen models do that a lot 5-8 days in advance. Rarely if ever does it pan out as impressively as they initially depict.

    In any case, the Euro also shows a frigid forecast for First Night. That may be more plausible, although the timing could change. At least one of the nights around then should end up quite cold.

  21. Been back and forth with this theme for days. 😀
    Probably won’t happen, but we shall see. Nice map to look over in any case. 😀

  22. From NWS re: Next Thursday System (12/29)

    Thursday…

    Low confidence forecast this far out. Both the GEFS/EPS ensembles
    indicating a shortwave/low pressure system impacting southern New
    England. There is a large spread in the potential track from inland
    runners to those with more of a coastal track. So plenty of
    uncertainty, but the potential for some rain/ice and/or snow is
    possible sometime next Thu/Thu night.

  23. I am not holding my breath on that one. If it were to happen I am glad its next Thursday and not next Wednesday when my mom and stepdad have a house party.

  24. With the current overall weather pattern, I think snow storms will be sneaky in southern new england where something suddenly occurs a day or two before onset. I enjoy those surprise storms.

    1. That will probably be the case except during a relatively short period where we may see 1 or 2 coming several days in advance sometime later in the winter.

    1. Haha. I thought food shopping at 8:30 am today would have been an easy in and out. Not sure what part of my brain wasn’t working to think that. There was not one parking space.

      And I have to pick up shrimp tomorrow morning. Arghhhhhhhh

    1. Please tell Mrs OS that I just looked at it for a very long while and felt an Inner peace. Oddly…or maybe not oddly….it was something I needed just now

  27. All I know is that it better not be raining on New Years eve…..of course since I have plans thats going to be the day in which it poors.

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