Saturday Forecast

50 Comments

3:07AM

It’s the holiday season, and we have a cluster of them these 3 days (Hanukkah beginning at sundown today, Christmas Eve today, Christmas Day Sunday, and of course Kwanzaa Monday). Whichever holiday(s) you celebrate, may it find you in good health and bring happiness and joy!

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 24-28)
A cold front will cross southern New England today, bringing a period of rain from west to east, though higher elevations of central MA to southern NH will see some snow to start as the air will be just cold enough. This front will move rather rapidly and the rain will end from west to east this afternoon with some partial clearing following rather quickly. This sets up a dry and chilly night, favorable for travel around the region in general, though some areas may see patchy icy spots if rain puddles are not able to drain or dry before the temperature drops, so be aware of that. Christmas Day Sunday will be a pleasant, seasonably chilly day as high pressure tracks north of the region. The next low pressure system will follow that high into southeastern Canada Monday, and its associated cold front will bring another round of rain showers to this area Monday night, though some ice pellets may mix in as well. Impact from this will be rather insignificant as it will be a fairly weak and fast-moving system. Behind it will by dry weather with a mild Tuesday and colder Wednesday.
TODAY: Cloudy through early afternoon with a period of rain developing west to east mid to late morning except snow with minor accumulation in the higher elevations of central MA and southern NH to start, then ending from west to east early to mid afternoon, lastly on Cape Cod. Partial clearing following. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH with a few higher gusts, shifting to W in the afternoon.
TONIGHT – CHRISTMAS EVE: Partly cloudy evening. Mostly clear overnight. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY – CHRISTMAS DAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-28. Wind light N.
MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of light rain/sleet late. Highs 35-42. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Windy. Lows 25-32. Highs 40-47.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 18-24. Highs 33-40.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 29-JANUARY 2)
Same general pattern continues with frontal passages December 29 and again late in the period with rain showers favored. A shot of dry but colder weather mid period probably including New Year’s Eve.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 3-7)
Pattern persistence with fast-moving low pressure areas tracking over or north of the region with a few episodes of rain/mix possible.

50 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  3. Thanks TK.
    Waking up to a nice surprise with snow falling. I thought any snow mix at the on set would be up in the Northwest Hills of CT. Too bad it won’t last long but will go over to a rainorama.

  7. It’s 40 Degrees here, so I surely do not expect it to start as snow, although it still
    could possibly as dp is 30.

  8. It’s now turned to rain where I am. I was nice to see a little snow fall on Christmas.
    JPDave what does the 0z EURO show for snowfall with late week system not that I believe but may as well have a good laugh on a Saturday morning.

    1. I’ll post the 24 hour snow maps for the 29th and 1st.

      Click to enlarge:

      http://imgur.com/a/kTx09

      For Waterbury, it has 3.9 inches for the 29th and 2.2 inches for the 1st.

      Note this is a huge drop off from Yesterday and frankly, it seems to be trending towards the GFS. Let’s see what the 12Z run shows.

  9. Thanks JPDave. Given the pattern were in with brief wintry precipitation at the onset then over to rainorama that seems reasonable.

  11. Happy Holidays to all!
    Hope the last-minute holiday prep are going well!!!

    Does anyone remember this storm??? “Tropical Storm Santa”
    Of all of the weather that we have experienced at our home in more than 27 years, I think this storm caused the most wind damage.

    (credit to storm2k.org)

    Just before Christmas, 1994, a large coastal storm formed off Florida’s east coast. The storm seemed to become tropical, developing an eye, almost like a late season hurricane. As the storm moved northward along the Eastern Seaboard a very large upper-level storm formed in its wake over Florida. This upper level storm was huge with a wide circulation spreading northward. It seemed to reach out and grab the first storm only to slingshot it on a northwestward path into New England.

    When this first storm came ashore nearly over New York City early on Christmas Eve it blew down trees all over Southern New England with winds clocked as high as 99 mph in Westport Harbor, Mass. The storm cut power to 130,000 in Connecticut as it dumped nearly 5 inches of rain on the area.

    an intense nor’easter, a hybrid winter and tropical storm lashed New England with high winds and heavy rains. The storm had its origin in the western Gulf of Mexico and had characteristics of a tropical storm even as it reached 40 degrees latitude. The storm dumbelled around a developing winter type storm off the mid Atlantic and approached New England from the south-southeast. Winds exceeded hurricane force over coastal areas. Walpole, MA had a wind gust of 88 mph. Sustained winds of 63 mph with a gust to 84 mph were recorded at Nantucket. Falmouth, MA had a wind gust of 78 mph and Ashaway, RI a gust of 74 mph. Plymouth, MA was deluged with 4.85 inches of rain and Gloucester, MA had 4.72 inches.

    (The following is a reply by Glenn Field of NWS-Taunton to a comment on the storm2k.org blog)

    You are correct…the storm that we in the Taunton office affectionately refer to as “Tropical Storm Santa” (whether it’s subtropical or tropical) did indeed have an eye feature, seen on IR imagery when the storm was approximately at 38.5 or 39.0 degrees N and 71.0 or 71.5 degrees W (due S of Martha’s Vineyard). The deepening of this storm was so phenomenal that we decided to activate the Emergency Broadcast System (now EAS) for Cape Cod and the Islands. At the “Hotel” or 44004 buoy, located at 38.5N 70.7W, the pressure fell 11.7 mb in 3 hours and at 18Z/23rd was down to 977.5 mb. Winds at that time were NNE (020 degrees) at 54 G 70 knots (or 62 G 81 mph)! Quite a storm! Peak wind gusts when it arrived in New England were as follows: Walpole, MA 88 mph; Nantucket, MA 84 mph; Blue Hill Observatory in Milton, MA 76 mph; Ashaway, RI 74 mph; Providence, RI 72 mph; Chatham, MA 72 mph; Boston, MA 66 mph.

    Satellite imagery from the day prior to the storm revealed a very warm eddy in the sea surface temperatures protruding quite far northward toward New England, which may be what helped it develop so much, so far north.

    1. I was at a house in Waltham on the evening of December 23 and the wind gusts were so powerful some of the siding came off the house.

      It was very warm with tropical humidity.

    2. How do I not remember this? Kids all arriving soon. It will be fun to see if they remember.

      Thanks for posting. Was a fascinating read. I’m curious to hear Toms, Johns, Sue’s, Keith’s, coastal’s recollections and those of others who live along the coast.

  12. Here’s wishing you all a special holiday with family and friends, whether it be Hanukkah or Christmas (or both!)…

    Go Pats! Go Santa!

  16. AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    Which location has roughly the same average annual snowfall as the North Pole?
    A. Caribou, ME
    B. Boston, MA
    C. Washington DC
    D. Atlanta GA

    Answer later today.

    2. If we’re talking the actual North Pole, then I’ll say D. But if we’re talking North Pole, Alaska, then I’ll say A.

  22. 0.42 incg in ye ole rain gauge from today’s little rain event. We’ll take it.
    Wish it were snow, but I guess it’s not in the cards. 😀

      1. just a 50 to 80 mile further south and east will make a large difference for my area, not for Boston but for Merrimack Valley could mean first real winter storm if it happens. I am not getting overly escited unless its 3 days out.

      2. Pattern is far too progressive anyway. The redevelopment, if it happens at all, would be triple-point and not have any cold air involved in it, enough to do anything at least. You’d need a blocked system and pretty much a cut-off or much slow-moving system. Instead you have a progressive flyer with a deep low to the north. You really want to see a cold high up there where that low will be.

  25. Answer to AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    Which location has roughly the same average annual snowfall as the North Pole?
    A. Caribou, ME
    B. Boston, MA
    C. Washington DC
    D. Atlanta GA

    The correct answer is C.

  26. Merry Christmas everyone. Nice first day of vacation . I ran around this morning picking up meats for xmas here tomorrow and went to a lovely mass this afternoon . We had the usual Chinese spread and opened a few gifts. Merry Christmas woodshill gang .

  27. Driveway is like ice. Leftover rain froze a thin layer. Streets are well sanded here, but please be careful and safe

  29. Both the 0Z GFS and CMC appear to have realistic solutions for 12/29.
    ie NO SNOW for SNE. Redevelopment does not take place until
    the Gulf of Maine. Again, more realistic.

    We shall see what the 0Z Euro has to say.

    Does NOT feel like Christmas to me. Not in the slightest.

    1. Feels like Christmas here. 🙂

      Weather is never a factor. The holiday comes no matter what. 🙂

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