Tuesday Forecast

228 Comments

2:25AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 27-31)
For the final 5 days of 2016, an active weather pattern we will see here in southern New England. It starts with the passage of a cold front this morning, with mild temperatures and rain showers, followed by a drying and cooling trend behind the front during the afternoon. Colder air will settle in tonight and Wednesday as high pressure moves toward the region from the west. This high will then push off to the east by Thursday as the next area of low pressure moves eastward across eastern Canada. Its cold front will approach New England from the west but as it gets to the northern Mid Atlantic, a new low will form on it and intensify as it tracks from near the NJ coast to likely over southeastern MA by early Friday, before exiting via the Gulf of Maine while deepening during Friday. First, the big question will be the track of the new storm and the rain/snow line that will set up somewhere in the area. Though there will likely be rapid redevelopment and intensification of low pressure off the New Jersey coast that will then track toward far southeastern New England, it will be a very progressive system and not have a lot of time for cold air to become established widespread across the region. So at this time leaning toward a wetter versus whiter scenario for all of southeastern MA and RI into parts of east central MA and southeastern NH, with more snow as you go back to the west and north. Will work on snow amounts for the next post. Behind this will come a shot of cold air for the end of the week. A weak break-away low pressure system from a larger system in the Midwest will bring the chance of some light snow later on New Year’s Eve.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy early to mid morning with rain showers ending. Partly to mostly sunny late morning on. Highs 47-54. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 24-31. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. Developing precipitation during the day, ending overnight, falling as mix to rain southeastern areas possibly ending as snow, snow to mix/rain likely ending as snow northwestern areas. Will refine this forecast on next post. Lows 22-30. Highs 38-45.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Windy. Lows 22-30. Highs 30-38.
SATURDAY – NEW YEAR’S EVE: Partly sunny day. Mostly cloudy evening. Chance of light snow late night. Lows 15-22. Highs 28-35.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 1-5)
New Year’s Day a weak system should bring light rain/snow showers. A larger system may bring mix to rain later January 2 into early January 3 followed by drier weather later in the period. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 6-10)
No major changes to the overall pattern. A couple of precipitation threats, with rain favored over mix/snow. Temperatures above normal.

228 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Euro has the system very close to boston at 980 mb.
    Nam pretty much the same, perhaps a tad farther off shore.

    Euro says no snow for boston (less than 1/2 inch)
    Nam says 4-5 or more for Boston.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016122706&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=084

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016122706/namconus_asnow_neus_29.png

    GFS says what are you talking about???

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016122706/gfs_asnow_neus_15.png

    Euro

    http://imgur.com/a/yT7AE

      1. Like Prego, it’s in there.

        Not ready to make a call. I am intrigued by the NAM. It’s
        probably out to lunch, but worth monitoring.

      1. Probably correct, however, I hold out a slim hope that the Boston
        area gets in on at least some of it. 12Z runs next. 😀

          1. You got that right. The Euro has had this feature for about 10 consecutive runs.

            There IS dynamic cooling potential here. It just depends upon how quickly and strongly it intensifies. There is cold above, BUT there is a massive warmer marine layer to overcome at lower levels. That is the main problem for snow nearer the coast. We shall see.

              1. There looks to be some wrap around potential once the winds
                shift to North. So, I’m hoping we get 2-4, 3-5 on the back end.
                We shall see.

  5. Wind has to have been stronger than last wind event. We have things blown over in yard that so far have not been affected by wind since we moved in.

    2. I thought the wind was pretty impressive last night too! I think the other thing that made a difference was the wind was from the southwest (as opposed to the NW for a lot of our wind events) so to me it sounded different and stronger the the last event.

  6. Thanks TK.

    Very windy here last night. Definitely gusted 40-50mph for a couple hours, I could hear it.

    Betting the 12z NAM comes in warmer/wetter, based on the fact that the 9z SREF came in warmer/wetter than the 3z run.

    1. I’ve noticed that there has been a disconnect recently with the SREF.
      Most input are from those ARW and NMM models and only a few ensemble
      members from the NAM. I wouldn’t go that far just yet.

      You certainly could be correct. We’ll know very soon.

    1. Reversal of fortune starting this morning? Most models have been trending colder. I guess today, they start trending in the other direction? We shall see. 😀

  12. I don’t buy that coastal parts of RI get more snow than me considering I am in the interior. The system we had back on the 17th did that same thing but corrected later on.

  14. That wrap around band on the NAM is so beautiful as depicted. This could be the coastal storm of the season, even if it’s not a big producer for us.

    Not warmer, so my prediction there was incorrect. Lot of dynamic cooling beyond shown. That’ll be the wildcard. Should still be mainly rain for most of us.

    1. Front end mainly rain. The back end is the wildcard. IF there is wrap around moisture, it will be SNOW. So does it shut off just as it is cold enough for snow
      OR does it flip while there is ample moisture. Many runs to shift through to fine tune this. Clearly some areas are in for it.

  15. JP is it possible this storm winds up so much that it actually becomes more of a coastal storm for New England? Also seems that this storm would have more dynamic cooling being so strong.

    1. It looks to be a coastal storm. There could be ample dynamic cooling.
      How much, if any, snow near the coast depends upon the exact track, the intensity and how much moisture is left for the back end.
      There will be wind on the coast, but the worst of it will be once the center
      starts moving away as it will be deeper then allowing for stronger winds.

      We can speculate all we want, but this system will do its own thing, whatever that turns out to be.

  16. If the upcoming storm is a coastal event, how does that look for coastal area damage?

    You didn’t have wind in JP,Dave?

    I have a manger from Teak Isle. It is more of a silhouette. It has guides for two 1/3 inch rods that go into the ground. It didn’t budge in the last wind event. It was tipping forward this am. I went out to hammer the rods in figuring they had loosened in the wet ground. They were bent a fair amount right at the point where they meet the ground.

    A neighbor lost a mailbox that looks as if it snapped at ground level. Daughter said the fairly heavy top to a sandbox that was in a sheltered area under their deck blew around the house and into street.

    I don’t know how I missed the forecast for this as I typically perk up when I hear wind.

  17. NAM’s sfc temperature map seems to contradict it’s snowfall projections.

    Dynamic cooling or not, I think this thing has too much boundary layer surface warming to overcome. Look at the several hours of southerly flow prior to the secondary developing. Even on the NAM, it pushes the 32F isotherm very far inland.

    Also, tomorrow’s airmass isn’t that chilly to begin with.

    I’d propose that elevated areas in the far central interior may see advisory levels of wet snow. Lower elevations of the central interior may see 1-3 inches of wet snow.

    All comes together for interior Maine and easternmost central NH.

    I think our local area gets shutout on snow on this one.

    2. I agree with your assessment for the front end of the event. Once the winds turn, providing there is ample moisture remaining, a different story. ALL of the NAM
      snow for coastal areas is back end snow. It will flip to snow almost in an instant.

      We shall see. Will be fun watching it evolve, not matter how it turns out. 😀

  18. 48F in Albany, 46F in Burlington, VT ……

    Perhaps the 50s hang on all day. Headed outside to enjoy the warmth. 🙂

  20. Is it just me, or does it seem that NWS Taunton has been unnecessarily teasing this storm as something much bigger than they know it will be. I get the TV stations doing things that way, but I feel that NWS should be above that. It started yesterday with the “Nor’easter” tease, and now with their latest “significant snowfall percentage” map. 63% chance of above 6″ in North Central Worcester County. That’s significant? It is barely Winter Storm Warning criteria!

    This type of messaging gets people’s attention, but unnecessarily so. Constant crying about wolves drowns out the message when it is really needed. I’m all for them being on social media, but this seems a bit over the top.

    Ok, rant over…

    1. Totally and completely agree!

      I liked to old days much better.

      I remember a channel 4 forecaster, something Boyd? forget 1st name.
      He was on and very very calmly said in closing, “sunny today, Blizzard tomorrow”.

    2. Excellent comment. I love that you made the distinction between TV and NWS. The TV stations/media (whether it is news or weather) look for the biggest headline. The NWS does not have to sell itself and should be absolutely reliable. I just added it to my list of folks to write to.

  21. 12Z GFS insists on NOT intensifying system so fast and less qpf. Therefore no dynamic cooling or much less of it. Keeps snow to far far inland and up North. It is the “MAINE” event! Will this be the ultimate solution? Who knows. What is it NOT falling for that the other models are? OR is the GFS just plain and simply missing the boat on this event.

    Snow map

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016122712&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=078

    surface

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2016122712&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=063

    Is the GFS an OUTLIER? OR the real McCoy?

    anxiously awaiting the 12Z Euro.

  22. Everyone has noticed the consistency of the euro. Has anyone noticed the consistency of the GFS? 😉

    1. Yes, I have noticed that for sure. Other models have come around to the Euro, while the GFS stands alone. You watch, it will probably be correct. 😀 😀 😀

      I have a hunch that the GFS is dead wrong OR perhaps that is my wishful thinking. Time will tell.

      Weather! gets us every time.

  24. If the NAM holds onto this within 48 hrs, you have to lean that way I’d think. If my memory servces me correct the GFS did not do too well with the overunning event we saw a week or so back. Completely different set up, but points out the reason we have higher resolution short term models vs soley relying on the mid to long term ones for every detail. I love these kind of storms with the wildcards embedded and potential for various outcomes. Fun to watch evolve for sure

    2. Nicely stated. We shall see.

      What is the current resolution of the GFS? here it is:

      NCEP-GFS / North America (mesh: 13 km interpolated to 25 km)
      That is now decent resolution, but it is NOT 4kM OR 3km.

      CMC coming out now.

  25. Just for fun, here is the 12Z 4KM NAM surface chart for 7PM Thursday:

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2016122712/nam4km_ref_frzn_neus_44.png

    Here is the 850 MB chart:

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2016122712/nam4km_T850_neus_45.png

    I realize this is just one model and others contradict this, but It is interesting to
    look at this regardless.

    I should also point out that the 3KM NAM has the rain/snow line about 40 miles or so to the NW of its 4KM counterpart.

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2016122712/nam3km_ref_frzn_neus_60.png

    So, even among the NAM suite of models, there is divergence.

    So what’s it gonna be boy?

    Door # 1 OR Door # 2?

    Waiting on CMC and then of course the EURO. Then we look forward to the 18z but more importantly the 0Z runs. 😀 😀 😀

    1. Was just looking at those. The 4km would present a very interesting solution. Looks poised to explode in a great position. Ignore that 3km run entirely though. I’ve liked the 3km so far on our weaker overrunning events, but that is a convective feedback disaster on the 12z run.

      And I agree with TK and JMA that the GFS solution is entirely possible.

    2. The 3km was weird with how far out to see the low was vs the other versions. That was at the very end of its range, so we’ll see how it handles the entire event once in range

  27. 12Z CMC appears to be on board with the GFS:

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016122712/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_10.png

    Too close with significant development much farther North:

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016122712/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_10.png

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016122712/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_11.png

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016122712/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_12.png

  28. Thanks, TK.

    Saying this is a “progressive” pattern is an understatement. The weather is more March-like than late December; active with a steady stream of lows coming our way (too close to SNE, in fact, to produce much wintry precipitation in these parts – a jet stream buckle and some Greenlandic blocking would be useful right about now but it ain’t going to happen), temperature gyrations, lots of wind every other day, and an ephemeral sun.

    Patterns like this tend to last 3-6 weeks, I think. I’m a bit surprised certain mets bit once again on some long-range models that depicted a change in pattern. The other day, for example, I saw PB declare that starting this weekend we’d be getting consistent cold and a different pattern. That just isn’t the case. I sort of wish TV mets would get rid of the 7-10 day outlooks. They’re invariably inaccurate, misleading, and a waste of viewers’ time. Focus on getting the 3-5 day forecast right. That would be my advice.

  32. Carrie Fisher Dies at age 60, this is from the family… 2016 has just stunk up the place. To many awesome actors and musicians died and are being replaced by garbage.

      1. A lot of rain and wind in the York, ME area. Interior Maine looks to get buried but the storm track is too close for coastal locations

  37. I’m very excited with this storm for the ski areas of NNE. I don’t mind missing out on this one as long as they are getting it. Not to mention we are at my mother’s in Amsterdam NY right now and don’t want to be coming back to a mess in the driveway.

    We had a white Christmas up here with about 6″ on the ground when I got here. Probably down to about 3″ now after the rain and warmer temps overnight. I’m hopeful for a general moderate snowfall across eastern NY on Thursday to freshen things up. We are a bit too far west to get into the heavy stuff with this late developing coastal but lake effect will get cranking in the favored areas on Friday.

    Hope everyone is enjoying their holidays!

    1. I agree. Love to see ski areas getting this. Sounds as if you had a wonderful Christmas. Enjoy your time at your moms

  38. What a crush job this is going to be up north. Wish I was up at school in Plymouth, NH. Probably 12″+ on the way there. Like Mark said, great news for the ski areas, who are having a much better go of it this year than last.

    We still need the rain around here too. Drought situation hasn’t improved a whole lot. Should be a good 1-1.5″ of rain for most of us with this storm, and another soaker possible early next week.

  40. The general pattern picture beyond a week out is the most muddied to me that it has been in awhile. I think there could be a better opportunity for more of us to see snow in the 1/5-1/8 window. But I don’t know if that will represent an earlier than expected end to the warm/progressive pattern, or if it will be a temporary break and in fact the warm pattern settles back in and drags on longer than I originally thought.

  41. I was thinking the same thing WW….it appears that the pattern is trying to break down and we MAY be transitioning into a more winter like regime in the eastern US. Judah talks about the polar vortex splitting into two lobes, the shift to -AO, and strong North Atlantic blocking developing. These are all favorable for more cold and snow chances in the NE.

    I have been skeptical of Judah’s analysis and waffling as of late but there is some support for what he is saying on the Euro and GEFS.

  43. Taking a look at the surface temps from the NAM vs the Euro. About a 5-7 degree difference, thus Euro virtually no snow Boston while Nam has upwards of 6 inches.
    please note: Euro depicts warmth at the 925 level for at least 1/2 the storm and then even after that changes, surface way too warm.

    So, which one of these is correct, IF either of them are?

    We would need a Powerful Dynamic cooling event to get that snow to the ground.

    No way I would make a final call right now. No way AND I don’t have to make it.

    I still think this could be a sneaky situation. So difficult to tell, even only about 2 days out now. If one blends all of the models together, tough to come up with a snow scenario for the immediate Boston area. Inland and up North a totally different case.

    Still monitoring. Waiting to see IF 18Z NAM backs off. We shall see soon enough.

    1. “No way I would make a final call right now. No way AND I don’t have to make it.”

      I’m not ready to make an INITIAL call yet, let alone a final call.

  45. Here is the 12Z FIM snow map, showing a bit of wrap around snow for boston.

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim7_jet/2016122712/t3/totsn_sfc_f090.png

    here are 2 surface maps:

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim7_jet/2016122712/130/3hap_sfc_f060.png

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim7_jet/2016122712/130/3hap_sfc_f066.png

    850 MB temps remain very cold throughout. That is NOT the problem.

    Like the Euro, 925 MB temps is the Problem:

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim7_jet/2016122712/t3/temp_925_f060.png

    total accumlation precip (.5 to 1 inch)

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim7_jet/2016122712/t3/totp_sfc_f090.png

    Probably NOT intense enough for sufficient dynamic cooling.

    1. btw, this is the 60KM version. The 30KM version won’t be available
      for a while yet. Also, the 15KM version hasn’t been available for days.

  46. I want it to snow here so badly, BUT I have to be very careful NOT to fall into the
    wishful thinking trap.

    But I have been thinking of an analog situation. I have come up with one, but
    I can’t say with confidence that it is a super close match. I do remember a situation
    in the 60s while I was still in High School. Either Feb 1965 or Feb 1964. We were in
    a mild air mass with day time temps in the 40s. I remember Don Kent talking about a system coming up the coast and hugging it or even coming inland a tad. He talked about NE to perhaps even SW (yes SW is what he said) gales. AND he clearly talked
    about cooling from above. He correctly predicted rain changing over to snow.

    I was living in Millis and we received 10 inches. It was still in the 40s the next day.
    I do not remember what Boston received. The storm actually crossed the canal.

    It did start as rain. It took an hour or 2, but it did mix and then change to a heavy wet snow. It was AWESOME.

    I just can’t remember if it was a triple point redevelopment or not. Seems like it
    could have been due to the cloudy mild weather ahead of it?????

    OK, I can dream can’t I?

      1. I understand that concept very well. Difference in Ocean temp
        probably about 8-10 Degrees. I was just trying to wrap my head
        around something.

  47. I am dreaming to JPDave. There was a situation back in November where if I was up around 800 feet or higher I would have had a foot of snow instead of just one inch.
    This one although not as close to the big totals still hurts.

    1. This time around you are OK temperature-wise, just TOO far away from the main moisture source. Sorry.

      I’ll be doing my special DYNAMIC COOLING DANCE!!

      We’re going out to dinner that night. I’ll probably crash the car
      staring at the windshield trying to find a snow flake splattering onto the
      the glass.

  48. Well, if I try my SREF trick again for predicting the NAM result, I’d again say warmer/wetter, since the 15z SREF is even more in that direction than the 9z. I should also say, if I were making a forecast at this point, I’d toss the entire NAM suite altogether. Through the 12z runs, it’s different enough from the field to be labeled an outlier and disregarded. That’s not quite the same thing as ignoring it, because there’s a very outside chance it’s correct, but not enough of a chance to give any weight to. It should start to correct itself soon (maybe right now on the 18z run?)

    The thing that will help nail this down is getting into the range of the mesoscale guidance, which will start with the 0z cycle tonight. In particular, I’ll be looking for the RGEM and the WRF models.

    2. My Heart says BOO!!! But my head says that you could be correct.

      There are almost 3 Camps here:

      1. GFS & CMC. Warmest and weakest with no snow anywhere near the coast.
      2. Euro and perhaps UKMET, a little colder with snow closer to the coast, but
      still no coastal snow to speak of
      3. NAMs, coldest with decent Snow to the coast.

      IF I had to bet money on this (I do not gamble), I would go with # 2
      and hope that the dynamic cooling overcomes the boundary layer, which it probably will not.

      BOO on the SREF. Remember SREF heavily weighted to WRF-ARW and WRF-NMM with only a few NAM members. 18Z NAM cranking now.
      We’ll now very soon. 😀

      1. So far, a few fellow met’s I have talked to over the last 24 hours as well as myself are leaning toward somewhere between 1 & 2 with the emphasis on 1.

  49. Thank you very much to all of you for this discussion.
    Planning to head north with my skis and a stack of exams to grade — Thursday am thru Friday pm.
    Either Cannon or Sunday River. 🙂

    1. Friend of mine is working at Cannon over winter break. I know he’s excited for this. Either way, should be a great time!

    2. Enjoy. My dad and his buddies skied cannon a lot. My older brother does now. I never liked it much and for the life of me cannot remember why. My dads ski boots are in the ski museum at cannon. I also cannot remember who made them for him but he was always so proud of them.

      1. I adored Cannon. Some really nice runs there with a nice vertical drop. Some quite Challenging. I used to use the chair and T-bar to the summit and avoided the tram, although took the tram a few times. Nice mountain.

    1. It was pointed out above by a very competent young forecaster that this run should begin the correction and I couldn’t agree more.

      1. Indeed, WxWatcher correctly predicted this.

        I’m disappointed, but NOT surprised.

        Perhaps next month, we’ll get our shot. 😀

      2. That comment made me smile, TK. WxWatcher, I tend to read your posts several times and remind myself that you are college age and literally just at the start of your career. I know I’ve said it before but then everyone on here knows how much I like to repeat. You will be a tremendous success no matter which direction you take.

        And for everyone….I agree with MassBay. This discussion is fascinating.

        1. Thank you guys! I learn things here all the time, from everyone, and it’s great to have a place like this where we can all geek out about weather in a civil environment.

          And Vicki, your comments always make me smile, your positivity is contagious 🙂

    1. WxWatcher was correct this time in predicting a warmer solution from the NAM.

      That should be the Kiss of Death on “any” chance at all of snow in SNE, especially near the coast. I’ll wait until after the 0Z runs for the funeral services, but sure looking like a death.

  54. I love the back and forth with these storms. Should be a lot of fun to watch. This gives me more hope for january. Let’s see what transpires later tonight on the models.

    1. Probably more of the same, although I haven’t started the funeral arrangements just yet. Probably later tonight, unless I am pleasantly surprised.

      Wouldn’t it be ironically funny if the 18Z GFS came in with a reversal to a colder/snowier solution?

      OK, just some afternoon humor. 😀

    1. Interesting and thank you. btw, it was the 4KM this morning that had the snow and the 3KM had the rain/snow line 50 miles to the NW. Very interesting indeed.

      Here’s hoping that the mesoscale models are picking up on something that
      the medium range models are not. ALL it takes is about a 50-100 mile error.

      Again, Probably NOT, BUT very interesting.

  56. Sunday River really in the bullseye for this. Would not be surprised if they push 2 feet by the weekend. It’s quite possible they have close to 100% of their terrain open for the holiday weekend.

  59. It must be pointed out that some fabulous young talent has been on this blog. Our friend Scott, who you don’t see post here too often but I stay in touch with, is one of the best already. Matt, of course, who will make a huge impact in this science. And of course our friend WxWatcher who prompted the thoughts above to begin with today. He reminds me of a very young version of a giant in the industry (who shall remain nameless here) that I learned a lot from when I started out.

    There is also a young lady that I am in contact with on a fairly regular basis on a social media page and have met at a conference who impresses me. She reminds me of a young Mishelle Michaels, for those of you who remember Mish. 🙂 Great to see that this science is in good hands with that kind of dedication and talent on the rise…

    1. There sure has been and is some great young talent. I am sure I embarrassed Scott on here many times with my comments as to his talent. I miss seeing him here. And Matt not only impresses me with his weather knowledge but his unwaivering knowledge of the damage we are doing to our environment and his desire to right it. He and I have great conversations on messenger.

      I remember Mish well. As is the case with my oldest, she is an equestrian. When she was on air, we asked if she could address changing temps overnight to day so the kids would know how to blanket their horses. And she did just that.

      But…it also needs to be mentioned that you have given this young talent a forum to both learn and teach, TK. It cannot be emphasized enough how much a part of learning for all of us this blog and your expertise means to me and I know to all of us.

  60. Absolutely astonishing consistency with the 12Z GFS ensemble members:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/get_ensemble.php?mod=ncep_geps&run=12&stn_type=postagestamp&stn=PNMPR&lang=en&map=na&hh=060

    Spread, which I think is the mean?

    http://meteocentre.com/models/get_ensemble.php?mod=ncep_geps&run=12&stn_type=spread&stn=PNMPR&lang=en&map=na&hh=060

    Mean

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016122712/gfs-ens_mslpaNorm_us_11.png

    Members

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016122712/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_11.png

  61. The upcoming event will be mostly mountain snow. I think we see a pattern here, and it may repeat itself for quite some time. Certainly, the mountains were left mostly bare last year, so having a good year in terms of snow is vital. However, in this pattern in which the cold is marginal at best, the lows track in a flat way and right over us, SNE will not be seeing `real’ snow for a while, I believe.

    2. Pretty much as stated in the long range forecast. 🙂

      I thought the large scale long term pattern was an easy forecast. It’s the little details and anomalies that get sticky… 🙂

  62. Upon further review…
    Staying the course, leaning toward GFS solution.

    My plan is to post the new blog (for tomorrow) before I crash tonight including snowfall #’s.

  63. The 3km NAM from 18z has a nice handle on the first part of the storm, but may be overdone with its snow on the back side, especially in eastern MA. The progressive nature of the system will probably yank the heaviest out of here before it can really get cranking. It will be close though.

  64. From the NWS as of 5:22 am:

    A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING STORM NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MAY BRING
    HEAVY SNOWFALL TO PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND…
    MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 495 NORTH OF BOSTON THROUGH TO
    WORCESTER…SPRINGFIELD INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST
    CONNECTICUT. HEAVY WET SNOW AND INCREASING WINDS TOWARD THE END OF
    THE STORM MAY RESULT IN SOME TREE DAMAGE AND SCATTERED POWER
    OUTAGES. ACROSS NORTHERN CONNECTICUT…SOUTH CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS
    AND ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE I495 CORRIDOR IN EASTERN
    MASSACHUSETTS…SNOW WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO RAIN BUT MAY CHANGE
    BACK TO SNOW WITH A SHARP DROP OF TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING
    DURING THURSDAY EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A RISK OF STRONG WESTERLY
    WINDS AND A POSSIBLE NEED WIND ADVISORIES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
    FRIDAY ALONG EAST COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS.

    1. A very close call is developing here. I think it will be a blend of the JpDave model and the Woods Hill model with more emphasis on WoodsHill, but too close for comfort to write this one off just yet.

  65. 18Z GFS blows this storm right on through with ZERO wrap around backlash. ZERO.
    NO snow anywhere near the coast.

    1. Unfortunately, backlash snow is not a very popular occurrence here like it is in down east Maine when storms develop just beyond our latitude.

      1. True, BUT it does happen as I have seen it before. NAM bullish on backlash. GFS not a bit. What a difference.

  67. Very tight snow gradient as you move north and west of 495 from 0 inches to about a foot around the MA/VT state line.

      1. That would probably not make a big difference. The boundary layer would still already be warm, the precipitation would be lighter, and the back lash should be offshore.

      2. The only way that shifts further southeast is if this storm bombs out earlier than projected and of course tracks to our east.

          1. The southerly flow before and no high to north have been 2 points I have been trying to drive home since the beginning.

            It continues to highly disappoint me that this upcoming system is being touted as a nor’easter. That’s just plain not true. I dislike that term anyway.

  68. Wankum still saying snow on Thursday . I’m switching to ch 7. Not going to happen around here Mike.

  69. Of the 4 locals on this evening (4, 5, 7, 25), ch 4 has the most realistic and hype-less approach. I watched them all with a “non-meteorologist” mindset and I got more useful info from 4 than anyone else. They win tonight.

    1. Was it Eric. Even if not I think he pushes back against management the most and may well have the most leverage since he is a feather in their cap

      2. Eric has the best personality of all of them and is most knowledgeable to boot. Not that he is perfect, because he isn’t, but looking at them all, I think he ranks #1. And he can write with the best of them, almost as well as TK. 😀

            1. When I was little, I liked Mark Rosenthal the best. He was always amplified and forecasted more snow than any other MET during a pending storm. Though my gut told me he was all hype, he was the only one that I chose to pay attention to, LOL.

              1. Quick story. My freshman year at Lowell, I interned at Channel 5 with Bob Copeland on the EyeOpener 1 day a week (how’s that for learning from a legend?) Anyways, One morning, we got the 120-hour MRF forecast in (am I dating myself yet?) and it showed a classic snowstorm – roughly 980 low centered right on 40/70. I pulled it off the printer and showed it to Bob. His reaction? “Put it in the shredder and get rid of it. I don’t want Rosenthal to see that for Noon or I’ll be spending the next 3 days explaining on air why we’re not getting a blizzard”

  70. Yesterday was the 6th anniversary of this blog. For the fun of it I went back and read some of the posts from the first couple weeks.

    It’s amazing how few comments we had at first, and many of them were from folks that I know still read the blog but don’t often comment. This was before the “regulars” were all here. It was a nice little drip down memory lane. 🙂

    3. 6 years? How long after its inception did I arrive?
      I just remember getting an email from coastal inviting me to join.

  72. I went back and looked very quickly.

    Feom the start

    Coastal
    Tom
    Christie
    Brian
    2012 names I saw at last post in the month
    Feb Ace
    March Hadi, Tjammer, John, Vicki, Hadi, rainshine
    April-June I see Philip, JimmyJames and old Salty

    Others as well of course. If TK doesn’t have time I’ll try and make a complete list just for fun. Probably not until next week

      1. I took a lot longer but had to use my trusty notebook and sit in my thinking chair before I could find you guys again…

        2. One of my first comments was thanking TK and all for having me here. I said I would not have much to contribute but would post framingham observations.

          Sorry….I am laughing at the not much to contribute comment.

          Little did you know I was your worst enemy.

          But….id like to thank TK and every single person here for making a person who loves weather but has very little knowlege feel so very welcome

      2. We worked together but he did the vast majority of the work using email to invite people from the WBZ blog.

        2. I remember reading the wbz blog and someone asking where everyone went. Thankfully someone responded with the website to WHW. I distinctly remember “begging” to be allowed to participate and telling TK that I always supported the good folks on the wbz blog and although I was no met I loved the weather discussions. I think I checked my e-mail every five minutes after that to see if I got “in”. Very appreciative to be a part of the WHW family.

          2. Love that story. This is a great time to remind lurkers that they can post any time they want!

    2. Of course keep in mind I changed my username several times during the first couple months. I went from Topkatt88 to Brian to TK then eventually to Woods Hill Weather, because well, that last one made the most sense. 😛

            2. Dave…old salty…..you could never be a nightmare.

              What a mixed up special family we have become. And to anyone reading who has not commented in a while or who would like to be part of this crazy family…..we truly love everyone

      1. I had gone back to the early days of the blog and you were one of the first to comment. Nice to know you’re still out here. Chat with us any time you wish. 🙂

  77. Nam hits interior Northern New England with a moderate snowfall but if you look at the 3nam it plasters interior southern New England with ridiculous amounts showing 12+

  78. 6 years…WOW. Thanks for keeping this going for so long. As someone responsible for a community’s snow removal operations, I know that I have appreciated the forecasting over the years. And look forward to more to come…

  79. I read this blog all the time was originally reading on bz. Don’t have much to contribute but love reading all of the no hype professional people here can’t believe it’s been 6 years glad to be a part of this family in the shadows

    1. Thanks for your support. It means just as much to have people that generally only read, but you are always welcome to post, even if it’s just a simple observation or question. It’s all valuable in my opinion.

      Enjoy the blog!

    2. Nice to see you here. Please come out of the shadows and join in the fun. Just saying Hi every day is a great contribution.

  81. My issue isn’t with not having a cold high etc… problem with this baby is the track. It’s going inside the benchmark, if it was just outside benchmark we would probably get snow even without cold high. Storms is going under bombogenisis so if it was just outside benchmark we probably would get crushed. Oh well on to early January. We will get our share here near the coast come late Jan/early feb.

    1. If this tracked outside 40/70 we’d probably have rain/mix only because the new low is simply going to be too tightly wound. It has to work with pretty much existing cold air and minor manufacturing of additional cold over the interior to result in snow where it will be. The center way out there would probably have left these areas largely behind and not done much for the coast either.

      The lack of high and the progressive nature of the system is the reason places like Boston get pretty much zippo for snow.

  82. Judah Cohen’s updated weekly blog:
    https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

    The highlights:

    -AO to trend negative in next two weeks and NAO to trend negative next week

    -The North Pacific oceanic ridge will block mild, maritime air from North America, this should lead to further cooling in western North America that will start bleeding into eastern North America. Models are predicting that the two oceanic ridges will bridge across the top of North America. This could potentially lead to a very cold period across southern Canada and the Northern US

    -With cold air predicted to be widespread across the Northern Hemisphere (NH) continents, the strongest signals of the winter so far for new snowfall for both Europe and the Northeastern US emerge

    -Timeline of the current predicted cold spell is from the first week of January through the third week or so of January.

    -Following the 2-3 week cold spell, a milder period ensues for awhile, then the PV is disrupted which results in an overall colder pattern becoming re-established for much of the remainder of the winter across the NH including the eastern US.

    Of course there are some caveats and he leaves the door open for a few other scenarios beyond 30 days out, but he seems pretty confident on a flip to colder weather and increased snow chances in the Northeast for 2-3 weeks in January.

    We’ll see……

    2. Wonderful blog but I don’t agree fully with a lot of it.

      I’ll get into that more later. Focusing now on writing the next blog for WHW. I think I got this one figured out.

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