Wednesday Forecast

132 Comments

3:17AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 28-JANUARY 1)
High pressure brings dry and chilly weather today. The much-talked-about “false nor’easter” arrives on Thursday. No, this storm will not be a classic nor’easter. What we have is a parent low pressure area on the Pacific jet stream moving rapidly across southeastern Canada – a common storm track in this pattern. The front that trails from it will focus energy and moisture and with some upper level support a new low pressure area will form on the front and strengthen fairly quickly as it tracks from off the New Jersey coast to across far southeastern New England by Thursday evening then accelerating into the Gulf of Maine and the Canadian Maritimes Friday morning and beyond. For southern New England, the initial precipitation before the second storm forms will move in from west to east during the morning and midday, mainly as snow/mix far inland and rain possibly starting as mix further east. The second storm will only serve to pull in warmer air from off the ocean and bring largely a rain event a good portion of the region with the exception of higher elevations from north central MA and southwestern NH westward through western MA and northwestern CT. It is in these areas that 4 or more inches of snow are very likely. Any snow further east will have to wait until the storm is accelerating away. Only then will enough cold air flow in to start changing rain to snow, but this will also occur as the precipitation is getting ready to exit. So the drop off in snowfall may be very rapid with perhaps 2-4 inches in the I-495 belt especially north of the Mass Pike, and 2 inches or less to the east. It may never snow at all along the coast from Cape Ann to Boston and especially to the south. This area is a bit of a wildcard and it will come down to a tight squeeze in timing. Behind this comes a blustery and colder but dry day Friday. Looking ahead to New Year’s Eve on Saturday, a dry day is expected, but at night a weak low pressure system approaching from the west may bring a little light snow. This does not look like a significant system at all and may just add to the festive atmosphere of the evening. This should move out by the morning of the first day of 2017.
TODAY: Clouds dominate the morning. Sun prevails in the afternoon. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear evening. Clouds increase overnight. Lows 23-31. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. Snow/mix develops in the morning southwestern NH and higher elevations of central MA into northwestern CT. Mix to rain developing in areas to the east later morning and midday. Highs 32-40 occurring late-day. Wind SW to S 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Overcast with rain except snow higher elevations of southern NH, central MA, and northwestern CT. Then precipitation changing to mix/snow from west to east as it tapers off from southwest to northeast later at night. See above for accumulation forecast. Temperatures ranging from near 32 in snow areas to 40-45 Cape Cod during the evening falling to 27-35 overnight. Wind S to SE shifting to E 10-20 MPH with higher gusts evening, shifting to NE then N 15-25 MPH with higher gusts overnight.
FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
SATURDAY – NEW YEAR’S EVE: Sun and clouds day. Clouds with a risk of some light snow at night. Lows 20-28. Highs 32-40. Evening to nighttime temperatures generally 27-33.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Lows 22-30. Highs 37-45.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 2-6)
Low pressure area approaches on January 2 with a chance of mix to rain into January 3 before departing with drier weather returning. Generally fair and colder January 4-5 then a risk of some unsettled weather by January 6.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 7-11)
Pattern remains generally the same, temperatures averaging on the milder side of normal with a little unsettled weather at times mainly early and again late in the period.

132 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  3. Good morning and thank you TK. I think you have nailed the forecast.
    This baby is coming in hot, too far inside. over the last 24-36 hours, the track has shifted
    50 miles or so to the NW. FUGGETTABOUTIT! done fini except for up north and waaaaaaaaaaaaaay inland.

    Despite all of the talk I am hearing about a flip to colder, I say BULLSHIT.

    Surely looks like the same ole shitty pattern to me for at least the next 2 weeks.

  4. WSW hoisted here for 6-12. Seems quite rich to me and everything will have to go almost perfectly to even hit that bottom number. If we get near or over six here I’m figuring it would snow in Boston then at least some amount. One thing that gives me some hope of measuring is being at around 1,000 ft. Either way, I’ll drive up to Princeton Center about 7 miles up the street too that’s at about 1,300 ft. to see how it pans out at that elevation and even slight distance north. Witnessing the affect of important subtleties with “storms” like these are really fun to do in this part of Massachusetts.

    1. Right on Retrac.

      Unless something changes, it is just coming too far inside.
      only hope is a massive comma head wrap around event that is very heavy duty even if short lived.

      Keep us posted from your neck of the woods. 😀

      I really don’t expect anything here, except maybe a few flakes as it quits.

      Too bad. Pretty sorry season so far. I sure hope it changes.

  7. If there is enough precipitation I think areas at and above 1000 feet and favorable east slope areas of Berks and Worcester could do ok with snow with 4-8″ – Valleys east and west not so much.

    Inside 495 2″ of snow or less trending to almost nothing at the coast, south of Cape Ann.

  8. Thanks TK !

    Great analysis and well explained as always !! Also like your snowfall projections.

    I’m looking at some of the most likely snowfall amounts on the NWS site. 8″ in Lawrence, 6″ in Bedford …… I think that’s going to be very very difficult to achieve, but I could see a 5% chance of half of those amounts happening IF the wrap around (comma head) somehow has enough left to it AND it gets cold enough in the boundary layer.

    The western amounts in northern Mass ….. how ??? The effect of this second low, I think, is only going to make it so far west. Strengthening storm, the precip area should intensify, but consolidate. I think western areas get most of their precip from the initial storm, when temps are marginal inland. So, I think the Amherst, greenfield and Monroe projections are way too high.

    1. Excellent Tom and JMA.

      Personally, I think the NWS are a complete farce for this event.
      We shall see.

      I think what TK and JMA are throwing out there make the most sense
      considering how things look.

      Prior to Yesterday, I “thought” there was even a chance that Boston could get
      involved in the snow at least at the end. Now, that is a remote shot at best.
      The snow gods always conspire to alter the track either too far East to lower amounts or eliminate snow OR alter too far West to produce rain. It is rare event to have the perfect track for snow, Cold high to the North not withstanding.

      Tis the season for crappy snow in SNE.

      On the other Hand, NH and ME are going to do very well with this one.
      I am happy for the ski areas up there, they deserve a good season.

      Here’s hoping things change next year (next month).

    2. I agree Tom. They are actually exceeding the most robust model snow output in western areas. Funny thing is if you look at there 3 panel maps, the most snow is expected is than the top end of the range in their most likely panel.

      If you notice I wrote above if there is enough precipitation. If this gets itense enough, fast enough to pull down enough cold air to create significant snow well then you are going to have dry slots forming and rapid drying from the west eating away at the precip fields.

  9. Thank you, TK. Great explanation.

    I am not clear on amounts for this area but think you are saying 2″. I’m actually not sure what to call this area. South central MA??

    Tom, JPDave, JMA – wonderful followup discussion. Retrac – would love to see some pictures from Princeton center.

  12. I am trying to figure out why NWS out of Taunton has winter storm watch for Hartford and Tolland Counties in CT. To me boarder line advisory level. NWS out of Albany has issued a winter weather advisory for where I am in southern Litchfield county but again I think its boarder line whether we reach that level and I think that watch for the northern part of Litchfield County will be downgraded to an advisory as that area has the best shot of accumulating snow being up in elevation.

      1. I love that it will be a major storm in the ski areas…especially this week. I have wonderful memories of being up north during big snows. There was nothing like standing on the slope and looking out over the valley and its surrounding mountains through the snow.

      1. FIGURES!!! With a PACIFIC JET, I should have known the initial track was too far South and East. Bad me! Bad, Bad, Bad me!!

    1. My Ugh meter doesn’t function anymore, so I don’t know what it is
      reading. All I can say is that I have NEVER seen so many Lakes Cutters
      and other Northern Path systems in my life. Look at the latest GFS.

      A whole SQUADRON of them for the next 16 days.*(!@*#&*!@&#*(&!(

  18. Sounds like wind and rain for Boston.

    I know it’s not much consolation for the snow fans, but this pattern is wonderful for those of us who are not fond of shoveling the stuff or having much anticipated plans cancelled due to poor weather-related conditions.

    2. Wonderful too, for those of us who want to ski up north and not lose a day shoveling at home 🙂
      At the sane time I completely sympathize with the disappointment of the snow lovers. 🙁

  19. JPDave, Indeed the Pacific jet stream does not bode well for snow at the coast or Boston and points south. We need a significant pattern shift for coastal snows.

    I’m also skeptical about any flip to cold in the near future. It hasn’t happened this month, in spite of incredibly over-hyped and wildly inaccurate TV forecasts. I’ve heard everything from “frigid,” to “December to remember,” to “consistent cold wintry pattern on the way” – all of it wrong, in my opinion. We’ve had a few cold days, yes, and one nice little snowstorm. I’m glad it’s been a more normal December than last year. But, on the whole it hasn’t been cold or snowy, except in Northern New England.

    1. Totally agree!

      I have a feeling that the good Dr. Cohen will be wrong yet again about
      his shift to cold. This pacific jet is LOCKED in and so far shows ZERO
      signs of abating. There is still time, but it better happen soon.

      1. I’m shocked beyond belief that he thinks January could be cold and have a chance of snow. I asked my 7 yo if she thought January could be cold with snow and she said yes. Probably February could be cold too.
        December climo in SNE isn’t too hospitable for snow. The sweet spot is mid January to later in February.

  20. what a difference a day makes. Oh well, maybe things change again, but I think TK and others have rather eloquently stated why this will not be a snow maker for much on SNE

    1. Indeed they did and deep down I knew that, but I love snow storms so much,
      I kept looking for any possibility to get snow in here. I was encouraged initially by the Euro and later by the NAM. ALAS, it was nothing but a TEASE.
      Well warned by TK and JMA! Well warned.

      I know we can expect changes in the track of a storm system as the event gets closer, but the change in this one is pretty dramatic, at least in terms of
      snow chances for Boston. A Colossal difference. Oh well, nothing we can do about it, just enjoy the storm for what it is and relish in the fact that at least
      there will be a SNOW BONANZA for the ski areas up North who will welcome it very very much. 😀

      Meanwhile, I have some projects I have been working on and will continue to do so. Perhaps later in January the pattern will flip. We shall see, but right
      now this Pacific Jet is so LOCKED in, it is amazing!

  22. With this type of pattern we really need an area of high pressure North of the Lakes/north of the area pushing the storms east as well as a negative NAO as we need blocking to slow the systems. Its not like the past few snowy years in which we haver extremely large high pressures taking control of the Continent and letting storms travel along the southern boundaries of them.

  23. As I recall, and I have not read it recently, what we are seeing is pretty much what TK said we would see back as far as maybe October or earlier.

    I’d love to see snow. In the meantime, I’ll just enjoy the great days we are having!

  26. It is one thing for the tv newscasters and reporters calling this a “nor’easter” but the tv mets are touting it as well. The mets should refer to this as a mostly rain event for SNE with the significant snow restricted to the Berkshires, northern Worcester County and especially NNE. This is primarily a NNE snowstorm…period! The winds are going to be mostly from the south/southeast and not the northeast anyway, regardless of precip type. This on air hype on tv news these days makes absolutely no sense. With all the social media out there the general public is misinformed enough as it is.

      1. So for MANY needless hours they let people think they are
        going to be inundated with SNOW when that is simply NOT
        the case. Highly irresponsible! Don’t you think?

  28. I’ve already had customers cancelling orders because of the “blizzard Boston’s getting on Thursday night…….”

      1. In all honesty, I don’t drive any more when it snows. I’m an excellent driver in snow. I know – sounds as if I’m tooting my own horn – but I learned from the best. Even knowing that we may get very little, I’d postpone plans also.

    1. Yup, IF it doesn’t Go OTS or IF it doesn’t cut through the Lakes. 😀 😀 😀

      It will be gone tomorrow anyway.

  30. Mark I was just about to post that. I see high pressure to the north which is a good sign. Now can it make the turn up the coast.

  32. We had a nice little burst of lake enhanced snow here in Amsterdam NY this AM and picked up a quick inch. We have about 5″ total on the ground here. Pretty scene. You’re all welcome to come out here and enjoy…we’ve got extra space!

    It’s looking like a general 2-5″ on the way in this area tomorrow, with most of the snow being from the parent storm and energy transfer to the coastal as opposed to the coastal storm itself. I’m hoping this will set up some decent conditions when we head up to Gore Mtn skiing on Saturday.

    These are the types of winters I remember growing up here where the pattern favored more snow in Upstate NY and NNE and coastal areas get more of the mix/rain events.

  33. Well, it sure looks like the models have BACKED off on a super storm.
    No more 965 Lows or 975 off the coast of MA.

    Euro has come in a bit more off shore than the rest, however, elongated in
    the wrong direction. Here is snow map and surface.

    http://imgur.com/a/zIvi9

  36. Thanks, TK.

    My opinion only – I agree. A lot of hype. Models, meteorologists (except for TK – he gets it right most of the time!) whatever, no one knows what this storm is really going to do. We’ll know Fri. morning. Right now in Sudbury after such a cloudy start earlier; bright sun and blue skies w/just a few clouds. Nor’easter? I like to picture a nor’easter with heavy snow. Yes, I know a Nor’easter can have rain. Rain – I think Boston and eastern areas get a rainorama w/a brief switch to snow as the storm departs and cold temps. move in, unless storm moves out fast enough. Western areas and higher elevation could get good amount of snow. In any case, if we don’t get a good snowstorm this time – we are sure to get at least One good snowstorm this winter. My guess it will be at the very end of winter or even early spring! That would figure, the way things go nowadays.


  37. ‏@ryanhanrahan
    As expected the NWS is beginning to to downgrade the winter storm watches to advisories. Less snow expected. #nbcct

  38. From Henry Margusity at Accuweather:

    The snowstorm coming to the Northeast is the start of winter’s return to the East. On the Professional AccuWeather site, I go into more detail on the why the snows are returning the potential for bigger storms after the new year. The storm Thursday night is a quick hitter that is part of the change that is going on across the East. In general, snow amounts will be in the 1- to 6-inch range and skiing will be great!

    1. Thank you Mark for both of those. Henry is the pure hype-master, so I take what he says with a freight train of salt! BUT, I surely hope he is correct.

      I’d wager there are a few here who would argue against what he is saying.

  40. From NY NJ PA weather
    GEFS Members suggest a rather snowy set up for the first weekend of January. Have to watch this period.

    1. And here is your regular 32KM NAM snow map.

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016122818&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=060

      12KM NAM snowmap

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016122818/namconus_asnow_neus_21.png

      4KM NAM snowmap

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2016122818/nam4km_asnow_neus_18.png

      3KM NAM snowmap

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2016122818/nam3km_asnow_neus_58.png

      Some mighty BIG snow numbers up North. The mesoscale NAMS bring
      a fair amount of snow to NW CT.

        1. You’ll need it up there as that is ground Zero.
          Enjoy! It should be awesome. Hope you get up
          there before the worst of it strikes.

              1. I am a bit of a quasi-Luddite with a trusty old flip phone that serves me very well. Can’t figure how to post pics from it tho. 🙂

                1. I used to do it with a flip phone. You just need a proper cable, usually the same one you charge it with. Just need one end with the micro connector for the phone and the other a regular USB connector.
                  Assuming you have the correct software on your computer, you’ll be in business. You’ll see the phone when you click on “my computer” or whatever it is called on y our computer. If you don’t have the software, it should be easily downloaded and installed.

                  But understood if you’re not up to it. 😀

              2. Well, I fiddled with your suggestion, but it was definitely beyond me. I will have to report via narrative. Thanks.

  43. I’ll be re-re-re-reviewing stuff soon. Not expecting to make a lot of changes, but will start to specify soon.

    1. Sure seems that way doesn’t it. That 60 mile or so change in the track makes
      a crapload of difference. 24 hours ago we were talking about a track over the Canal. Now it’s over Boston.

      2. I agree with TK on the rain snow line and I am trending my thinking to anywhere that is not at a significant elevation East of I-91 and South of Rt 2 is going to get diminished amounts.

        It does amaze me how smart forecasters get fixated on the ECMWF and can’t ponder possibilities of why its solution may not be viable. Kind of like a good QB who gets locked on a single receiver and does not see the rest of the field.

  47. I am guilty of sticking to hypotheses for too long so I get it, but you all know my style enough that when a situation warrants about big snows I will go big. Thinking January 2015…However you got to see limiting factors to any model’s output and you can’t ignore others just because the alternative output doesn’t support the outcome you originally foretasted and / or hoped for.

  48. NWS Albany has hoisted advisories for all of eastern NY and calling for 4-8″ here in the Capital/Saratoga region. I’d be surprised if we got more than 2-4″. They must be collaborating with Taunton with these bullish snow amounts.

  49. Track continues its westward trend, but also notice how this storm zips on through like a Lamborghini. Not sure Boston even gets much rain out of this – perhaps a 3-4 hour stretch of steady rain but that’s really it. I think that this storm will almost exclusively be a northern NE event. Even the interior of SNE and even CNE is not going to see much. Temperatures are marginal at best, mixing will be problem (even in places west and north of Worcester).

    Yet, I still see forecasts talking about a nor’easter. I want to tell these mets that this storm is unlikely to result in a northeasterly wind in any part of SNE. The only forecasts that may say this is a nor’easter are the ones for St. Johnsbury, VT, Franconia, NH, and maybe Bangor, ME. Even in Bangor the prevailing wind will be an easterly.

  51. Looks like everything is on track for tomorrow, although the R/S line continues to get pushed back. I think it’s a central and northern New Hampshire and western Maine jackpot, but the mountains of Vermont increasingly look in line for good totals as well. There will be some impressive satellite/radar imagery tomorrow, a developing behemoth. Only thing that will limit totals up north is that the storm will be progressive, another result of no high to the north. Still a huge hit though. The Gray, ME NWS snowfall map looks pretty good to me.

    I looked back through the model archive at Tropical Tidbits, one of many great features on that site. In terms of details on how this is going to develop, it looks like it’ll be closer to the GFS solution of the past few days than the ECMWF solution. They’ve both moved a bit in the other’s direction though (and TK predicted exactly that a day or 2 ago, a blend of the two but a little more towards the GFS).

    However, looking further back, it took the GFS until Christmas Day to sniff out the general potential for a big storm. The Euro had the idea 2-3 days prior. A forecaster looking at either would have realized the potential for either a big storm or a near miss, but the Euro soundly beat the GFS in connecting the dots that the pieces would come together for something big.

    1. Your last paragraph illustrates a point I make at times. The ECMWF is still probably the best at seeing things first, but in a general sense, not so much detailed. If you know the model’s biases you can further use that to your advantage.

      Detailing events is much more complex.

    2. What a great discussion; even for a layman/rank amateur!
      This blog is to die for 🙂

      Thanks thanks thanks

      1. That is a great observation – the euro was definitely the first to sniff out the idea of a rapidly developing coastal storm but then it suffers with the details (snow amounts, rate of intensification, thermal profiles) in the days leading up to the event. Something to keep in mind for the rest of the winter.

    3. Yes the ECMWF picked up on potential disturbed weather but its difficulty in diagnosing the subtleties of a zonal flow, its want to over amplify and then slow down and hang on to precip fields was on advertisement. Frankly it’s solution was just wrong.
      A week ago the GFS had a dry forecast for 12/29 but at 96-108hours out from event it had a solution that has been remarkable in its consistency and if you had spit out the GFS forecast at 84 hours out you would have been much closer to a plausible actual outcome compared to the ECMWF at the same time.

      My point here is their is forecasting bias to swallow the ECMWF whole while ignoring the GFS and a lack of willingness to acknowledge the consistent weaknesses in the model.

  52. The tv mets are finally emphasizing that tomorrow will NOT be a nor’easter. I don’t know about Mike Waunkum but JR and Eric have stated that on air as such. In fact, Eric is calling it a “sou’easter.” The mets should have squashed the nor’easter talk days ago instead of letting the tv newscasters have their way.

  53. Lo and behold, the 18z GFS sends that system we were talking about earlier for next weekend up the coast as a nor’easter. Pattern looks interesting after that with a few snow chances. More cold air around to work with and even some blocking going on near the end of the run. We’ll see if this has any legs.

    1. Don’t think so.

      Warm system ~ Jan 3

      Cold system but suppressed south ~ Jan 6-7

      Warm system ~ Jan 11-12

      Post Jan 15-25 before any change, but still think we have a 3 week period of consistent winter events that will amount for a lot of our snowfall totals

    2. We will also see if Dr. Cohen’s thoughts eventually verifies. My gut tells me they will by mid January. We just need patience…right JPD? 😉

      2. Doesn’t it MOSTLY always get cold and snow in mid to late January? I’m sure my kids could tell you that it’ll probably be cold and have chances of snow from mid January to late February. After all, it is the sweet spot for winter in southern New England.

        1. My comment above ^^^^ has to do with the good Doctor, not JMA.
          I agree with JMA that most of our total snow fall will come in a compressed time frame.

              1. Not sure why you get a free pass on here…if you were Charlie you would have been kicked off by now. Typical liberal…tolerant only of ideas that fit your own narrative.

                1. Wow. Really? I seriously doubt there is a need to get political.

                  For the record. I agree with Matt. We left BZ because of met bashing.

                2. Leave politics out of here, thats one of Tk’s rules on here. I have not broken any of Tk’s rules. But you just did by putting Politics on the blog…. Congrats. By the way I am very tolerant. I have some really republican friends and I get along just fine with them. Republicans are tolerante only of ideas that fit their own narrative as well despite them being based on Non-science nonsense

    1. 2016 has just taken way to many people… this year has just stunk up the place. the only positive is that Panda’s are no longer endangered, other than that not many positives

  56. Debbie Reynolds’ passing suggests how much our mental state can influence our physical state. She had told her son this morning how much she missed Carrie. Being heartbroken can trigger cardiovascular events. Sad.

    As far as weather is concerned, the hype has gotten so out of hand that it’s led to misinformation. And that’s a disservice to everyone. I guess now that fake news and false stories have taken a life of their own, and people begin to believe them in our post-truth world, then being misinformed in terms of our weather doesn’t bother people that much. Well, I can say it really bothers me. I’m not accusing weather forecasters of spreading false information consciously. Yet, ratings and other pressures prevent them from giving us the facts in a sober, even-keeled way.

    1. It just never seems right to me for a parent to lose a child. I know it happens all of the time. But it truly is heartbreaking. You are correct, Joshua

      Also…”Yet, ratings and other pressures prevent them from giving us the facts in a sober, even-keeled way.” EXACTLY. Ratings and nothing else drives media. The desire for ratings is management driven and runs from news to weather. Management does not care one iota about the truth or facts. It is the bottom line.

      1. Agreed, People complaining about Mets presenting things to the audience and saying how bad it is etc. need to look no further than the person in charge of the News stations. Its all about ratings. I guarantee Most of those Mets are rushed and told what to say. Probably showing the data and then told what to do with a few exceptions.

        1. If that is indeed the case, then the station mets should tell management to butt out and let them do their jobs and present their on air forecasts as they see fit based on their interpretation of the models in addition to their formal education and personal experience. Management should only control the newscasters and reporters and stay out of weather (and sports for that matter) unless viewers address specific concerns.

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