Thursday Forecast

321 Comments

1:39AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 29-JANUARY 2)
Nothing fancy. Let’s get right to the facts and my best shot at forecasting this upcoming storm and the weather heading out of 2016 and into the early days of 2017. First, the storm. No big surprises or breaking news here. Still looking at a parent low pressure system moving into southeastern Canada and giving way to a newly developing low on its trailing front, moving from off the Delmarva / NJ coast later today to across far southeastern New England this evening and then into Downeast Maine by early Friday, heading into the Canadian Maritime Provinces from there. What does this mean for southern New England? It means an area of snow/mix/rain moving in from west to east this morning and midday, snow mainly higher elevations western and northern areas of MA and into southern NH, rain to the south and with a mix area in between. As the new low takes over some heavier rain will move up across parts of RI and eastern MA later in the day and evening. The rain/snow line will likely progress pretty far to the west, to the vicinity of the Connecticut River. An exception may be the highest elevations of northern Worcester County and southwestern NH which may hold onto snow for most of if not all of the event. This very fast-moving system will then will drag colder air in behind itself as it moves beyond the region. The question is does the cold air come in quickly enough to change the rain to snow all the way to the coast in MA and NH before the precipitation comes to an end. I believe it will have the greatest chance of changing in the northern reaches of the I-495 belt eastward to the I-95 belt in northeastern MA and southeastern NH, but here it would be brief enough to limit snow accumulation at the very end of the event. Will monitor and update. See forecast periods below for expected accumulations. I expect all precipitation to be done by around midnight. Once the system accelerates away, look for strong and gusty winds overnight and into Friday, which will gradually diminish later Friday. Any snow on the ground and standing water will start to freeze up in the early hours of Friday. With luck some of the pavements will dry quickly in the strong and gusty wind, but be aware of potential icy areas Friday morning, even where snow did not fall. Looking ahead to the final day of 2016 on Saturday, a weak system will approach from the west and may bring a few snow showers to the region later at night, though it may be mild enough for a few rain drops near the South Coast. This will exit early Sunday, the first day of 2017, with a generally dry and pleasant day expected as high pressure moves in, but this will quickly slip off to the east and a broad area of low pressure organizing to the southwest will spread cloudiness into the region during Monday, and depending on timing, it may get wet before the day is over.
TODAY: Cloudy. Snow/mix/rain develops west to east morning-midday with minor accumulation of snow possible in higher elevations of north central MA and southern NH, then rain dominant except in highest elevations for most of the day. Highs 33-45, coldest in highest elevations of north central MA and southern NH, mildest Cape Cod. Wind S to SE 5-15 MPH, increasing to 15-25 MPH in southeastern MA late.
TONIGHT: Overcast evening. Mix/snow highest elevations north central MA and southwestern NH, rain elsewhere, then changing to mix/snow eastward across northern MA and southern NH but remaining as mainly rain elsewhere, then all ending southwest to northeast by midnight. Snow accumulations of a coating to 2 inches mainly west of I-95 in southeastern NH and northeastern MA as well as the hills of central and south central MA and northern CT, building to 4-8 inches in higher elevations of north central MA and southwestern NH. Becoming partly cloudy overnight. Lows 28-35. Wind SE 15-25 MPH with higher gusts evening, shifting to NE then NW to the west of the storm track, SW then W to the east of the storm track, eventually W all areas 15-35 MPH with gusts 40-50 MPH except 50-55 MPH southeastern MA later at night.
FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Watch for icy areas on untreated surfaces especially morning. Highs 35-42. Wind W 15-30 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-26. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty, diminishing overnight.
SATURDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs 35-42.
SATURDAY NIGHT – NEW YEAR’S EVE: Mostly cloudy. Spotty light snow showers except rain showers South Coast. Lows 27-35.
SUNDAY – NEW YEAR’S DAY: Partly sunny. Chance of rain showers South Coast early. Highs 38-46.
MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of rain/ice late day or night. Lows 22-30. Highs 35-43.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 3-7)
Complex but weak storm system brings a chance of rain at least early January 3 before fair and slightly colder weather returns later and continues January 4-5. Next unsettled weather threat comes late in the period with odds favoring rain over snow.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 8-12)
Unsettled weather most likely to start and end this period with dry weather in between. Temperatures near to above normal.

321 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  2. Good morning and thank you. 26 at my house. 31 here at the office (just dropped my son off at the airport)

    Huge spread over a few miles.

  3. Precipitation is moving in rapidly. Still 26 at my house. As soon as the wind stirs
    from the SE, that will go up, however, I believe the precip is moving in so fast that
    it is Likely to start as snow. I know it won’t stay snow for very long, but I am hoping
    long enough to make it look Wintry for a bit. I know, wishful thinking.

    But so far all Echoes from NYC Northward are showing snow, 1/2 way down NJ a mix and South of there all rain. We shall see how the morning unfolds.

  4. Latest HRRR now showing a bit of snow to the coast on the back end tonight:

    Snow map as of Midnight:

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2016122911/hrrr_asnow_neus_18.png

    Surface

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2016122911/hrrr_ref_frzn_neus_15.png

    You will note that the HRRR now keeps the center East of Boston, whereas
    last night models depicted passing right over Boston. That makes the difference
    whether there is a bit of back end snow or not. 😀

  5. Thanks TK. Is the precip moving into this area on radar not reaching the ground? It is 26 here also and has that pre snow look. 🙂

    1. Now up to 28 at my house.

      To answer your question, the initial echoes on the radar are not quite reaching the ground. If you go to the weather underground Boton Nexrad site

      https://www.wunderground.com/weather-radar/united-states/ma/boston/box/?region=hfd

      You can select the desired radar setting (base reflectivity 0.5 angle, 1.45, 2.40 and 3.35 elevations etc)

      If you click on one of the alternate elevations, you will see echoes from higher up in altitude. If you click on composite, you see all of the different elevations merged into one display. You can readily tell when it starts precipitating above you. You can get an idea how soon it will reach the ground. I love
      playing with those settings and watch the precip zero in on me.

      It should be snowing out your way somewhere around 10:30 AM or so, assuming it’s NOT RAIN by then. So far the snow is holding.

      I am still hopeful for a start and end as snow with rain in the middle.

      We shall see. 😀

  6. Thanks TK !

    There is one heck of a surge of mild air building just off shore.

    16NM out in Boston Harbor, there is a SSE wind, it’s 39.7F, and the wind is 13.6 knots.

    I believe that there is going to be a sudden temp rise at the coast when this arrives. Something where the temp goes from like 30F to 40F over an hour’s time. I’d guess this may happen around the 10am timeframe.

    As that secondary low develops, this will gain some momentum inland on strengthening onshore winds.

    1. Interesting observation. I hadn’t even looked out there. For sure, that
      ocean is warm. I am hopeful that we don’t get a strong SE wind going.
      I want the redevelopment to take place and bring the winds in from the
      East and then Northeast.

    2. The 32F line is way back into where the heavy snow is projected to be ???????

      I do understand it can snow at 34F or even higher with the upper levels cooling and strong upward motion.

      I think this image is unlikely to happen. Let’s say it did, then where the 32F surface temp is being projected to be …. I don’t think it would allow for the accompanying projected accumulation to happen.

    1. Thanks. Been watching the HRRR. Was busy with work and didn’t catch
      the updated 12Z run.

      Here is the snowmap (10:1)

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2016122912/hrrr_asnow_neus_18.png

      another site

      http://atlas.cod.edu/data/forecast/HRRR/2016122912/NE/HRRRNE_prec_snow_015.png

      Kuchera

      http://atlas.cod.edu/data/forecast/HRRR/2016122912/NE/HRRRNE_prec_kuchsnow_015.png

      I’ll post a couple of ZOOMs on those. Please allow me a few minutes. 😀

    2. Danielle on Ch. 4 did mention backlash snow for the North Shore but that would be as far south it would go, not quite into Boston.

  9. 26.4 degrees when I left the house at 7:30. It certainly felt like snow this morning. Noticed last night on the 0z nam and again on the 06z that there could be a potential for back-end snows particularly in my neck of the woods in NE mass. Will be fun to watch the r/s lines and temps throughout the day. DP was 23 when I left as well with no wind to speak of

  10. I should have figured the Kuchera ratio numbers would be much lower than the 10:1, which is the first map I looked at. That would certainly be more reasonable, and would remain entirely dependent on there being enough heavy precip left around to drag down some colder air. Surface temperatures during the snowy period on the HRRR only drop to around 33-34F.

    1. Cold enough (assuming heavy enough precip).

      I’ve been watching the HRRR temperature profiles and for the most part
      the 850MB and 925 MB temps look good except for a couple of hours.

      What I will be watching is whether or not those level freezing lines
      creep just a tad to the East, allowing Rapid Dynamic cooling and a
      changeover in Boston earlier than even depicted by the HRRR.

      Probably I am getting my hopes up, but already it is FAR
      more INTERESTING than I thought it would be last evening.

      I had to get up at 4:30 this morning to take my son to the airport,
      so I never watched the weather last night nor did I look at the models.

      This HRRR is a big surprise to me, even IF it does not happen. It allows
      for some hope. 😀 😀 😀

  13. I guess I’m not too swayed by the 12z HRRR …..

    Not enough moisture left at the end, too much cooling to overcome at the surface ….

    I think TK’s amounts above have a much higher chance of verifying than the HRRR’s.

  15. Looking at the tv mets maps, each range has a very sharp cutoff. Could Boston get zip but Revere, Nahant etc. get like an inch or two?? Thatclose? 😀

    1. I suppose it is possible. The final dynamics of this situation will dictate
      that. Could be the HRRR is out to lunch, could be it is correct.

      It will be something we’ll have to monitor closely. It may be an interesting
      evening. 😀

  16. I am not a fan of the winter only because I do not like the darkness of winter. But I do love a good snow storm. Wish we were getting more snow than rain.

    1. Hi Lovethesunshine….I love your name!! Nice to see you here.

      I too would have loved a nice day inside watching the snow out the window. Hopefully, soon.

      1. One thing that is in favor of some wrap around snow is that
        the system is depicted to turn NORTHWARD after
        if crosses the Cape. Interesting….

  19. Snowing very lightly right now where I am. Too bad it will be turning to rain. I am not expecting much here if it does turn back to snow later.

  21. Looking at latest HRR model low pressure center looks to clip the Cape. Snow line collapsing to Boston and parts of South Shore.

  23. Ok, to put a damper on this SNOW talk, the 12Z NAMS have the center still passing
    just about over Boston, perhaps a tiny notch more to the East than last night.
    Result Little or NO SNOW in Boston.

    Yet the HRRR and RAP are advertising the SNOW.

  25. Got to watch this and see if there are any shifts because the smallest of shifts in either direction will make a difference later on with this system.

  26. It is now SNOWING above Boston. 😀 Will it ever make it to the ground before
    it changes to RAIN? probably not, but here’s hoping.

    1. I do think the red flag on both is that the 32F line is fairly far inland.

      The impact is on projected snow amounts. Could there be a change to big silver dollar wet snow flakes all the way to Boston before the precip shuts off …. Yes.

      It’s the HRRR’s 12z snowfall projections that don’t seem remotely possible. At 33F or 34F, how much melted precip would be needed to verify those snowfall amounts just north and west of Boston …… A lot !!!! Is there likely to be that amount of melted precip associated with any wrap around. My answer is a confident no.

      1. Tom, you may be correct. We have had our differences of opinions with such things many times in the past with probably an equal amount of correctness for each of us.

        I have a feeling you are incorrect this time. I certainly might be wrong, wouldn’t be the first time. 😀 😀

        Will be fun this evening regardless.

        Don’t get hung up on the surface temperature. As long as the column cools enough to keep it snow and there is decent
        intensity, it WILL accumulate.

        So the big questions are: When will it flip? What will the intensity be? How long will it last?

  28. The snow is making it to the ground where I am. Just like Christmas Eve too bad it will turn to a rainorama.

  29. Here is the most recent surface map:

    http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/90fwbg.gif

    http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_sfc_map.gif

    And here is the current radar mosaic:

    https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/northeast_loop.php

    Look at the movement. Unless there is a very rapid and dramatic shift
    in the upper flow to a more Northerly direction, how can this system
    possibly pass over Boston. It sure looks destine to stay off shore, thus
    increasing the chances for a change to Snow with accumulation later on
    this evening.

    Will continue to monitor it, but that’s what I see with my current now casting. 😀

  30. 35 at my house with DP 25. That could bring the temp down to 30 or so IF/WHEN
    it starts to Snow. Just don’t want it to get too much higher, else it will be rain.

  31. Everything on track. Our main wildcard is eastward extent of wrap-around snow tonight. How far east does it get in East central and northeastern MA and southeastern NH?

  33. interesting placement of low pressure. Like JP elluded to something drastic has to happen to make it travel over Boston. I have also been thinking since two days ago that Northeast mass (particularly Essesex and coastal NH and parts of down east Maine could see an additional 2 to 4 inches of snow at the tail end due to back end snow but there be a sharp cut off some where in Middlesex county. I do not believe Boston will be in this backend snow.

  34. Hmmm

    Why am I not surprised??? It looks like with each successive run of the HRRR,
    it backs off a tad more on snow. 14Z map just about ready.

  37. When I was younger, I always despised not getting the amount of snow that was predicted.

    I literally think that still influences me now.

    I always try to find and point out all the things that could keep snowfall lower than expected. And it sure does make many of my snowfall projections wrong (too low).

    Believe it or not, I’d be as happy as anyone if tonight’s system were to surprise and bring snow to Marshfield.

    Now, with warm weather, it’s the opposite. I like it so much, I’ll jump at any opportunity to forecast it, even when I know how stubborn it is to arrive in New England, especially in springtime.

  38. Here are the 9Z SREF Plumes (ensemble members) for Boston Snow totals:

    http://imgur.com/a/IvGYc

    Click on image to enlarge.

    Boston’s Mean total snow is 0.27 inch. Wow! Can we handle it?

    Wonder how much that changes with the 15Z run a little later?

  39. It’s up to 37 at my house feeling the effects of the SE wind which was up to 12 mph at
    Logan.

    However, DP maintaining at 25.

  40. Current Nexrad with rain/snow.

    http://imgur.com/a/bydNq

    Notice the RAIN expanding Northward out over the Water.

    It is a real race to see IF it starts as Snow or Rain.

    Here’s betting it starts as Rain at Logan. Other Boston Neighborhoods?
    Up in the air. We shall see. probably still rain.

  41. After HHH cold rain is my second least favorite weather, so this system stinks as far as I’m concerned. It’s raw and somehow feels colder than a sunny, 25F day, or a snowy 31F day. Add the cold rain we’ll be getting and it feels more uncomfortable.

    Unfortunately, the future doesn’t look so bright for us snow-lovers. Yes, it can all change – remember January 2015 and also January 2011. But right now we’re locked into a pattern in which the cold is marginal, the storms ride over the top of us, and every system is as progressive as a left-wing democrat. I lean left of center politically, but for my weather I want some negative oscillation and a nice conservative block to hold things in place and slow things down, perhaps even some reactionary retrograde action to make things really interesting.

  43. I think a transformer just exploded in my neighborhood. There was a boom and the power is out.

    Got me thinking, wonder what the wind is going to be like for a couple hours late evening on the back side of this system ???

  50. IT MADE IT!!!!

    SNOW FLAKES FLYING IN BOSTON!!!!

    I surely don’t expect it to stay snow very long, but I wanted to see it start as snow
    and I DID! made my day!

  52. Snowing at a pretty good clip here in Upstate NY. Been snowing steadily all morning, alternating between light and moderate. We have received about 1.5″ so far.

    Close shave on the 12z GFS with a couple waves of low pressure passing to our south next weekend.

    1. its going to be one of those years in which the storms travel to close or to the west or travel to the south and miss us all togeather

  54. Jp what did the euro 00z show for snowfall for my area (Billerica) its some what further south than the gfs and looks a tad cooler

    1. 0.1 inch sorry to say. 😀 I think it may be wrong. That was initiated at
      7PM last night. Looks like things have changed.

  57. Looking over the HRRR thermo profiles. It now keeps the 850MB 0C line SOUTH and EAST of the CITY for the ENTIRE event. Boundary layer issues will certainly cause a switch to rain shortly, however, I do believe that the dynamic cooling we were prviously discussing may be in play and cause a quicker changeover tonight than being modeled.

    Something to watch to be sure. 😀

  59. after a few stupid cutters something to watch for around January 6 to 10

    talking about this storm It seems like the heavier precip is coming down as snow and the ligher stuff is in the form of sleet and rain. Also the rain is freezing on the cold surfaces

    Like JP stated I believe areas in Northeast mass will see 2-4 inches.Been thinking this since yesterday morning. It does depend on the track

  63. John your comment gave me pause. I wasn’t sure what you meant by up my way but then thought you are on south shore so certainly I’d be up. So I checked map.

    From Boston…..which is where you may still be….I am down. And, as the crow flies, I was surprised to see I am south of Scituate, just about perfectly level with Marshfield and a tad north of Pembroke.

    I’ll interpret that to mean that when the ocean keeps moving over land, I’ll have oceanfront property here 🙂 🙂 🙂

  67. I wish we could see an analysis of where the best pressure falls are currently occurring. Would be a helpful indicator of where the secondary was going to track.

    Holy cross webcam in Worcester shows a good coating of wet snow, struggling to stick on the pavement.

  69. Temperature dropped a couple of degrees to 34 since the precip started…..snowed briefly and then went over to a cold rain

  74. Just had to drive from my house to Needham. Snow mixed in all the way and temp dropped to 36. We are getting primed.

        1. Going up here too. Starting to feel the SE wind a bit. It will really get going in a few hours. Current surface analysis shows the northwest part of the elongated low is tucked right in at the NJ coast.

            1. I do think we’ll catch some on the back end. Not sure how much yet. Staying with 1 inch or less for now but it won’t take much to push that.

                1. They may. It depends on the timing of the end of precip vs. cold air. I have them with very little right now, but a matter of minutes and miles will make a difference.

  75. despite radar shwoing rain in my area, its been a mix of sleet snow and rain when the heavier bands come through. Temperature hovering around 34

    1. Barely enough to keep the evaporative cooling going but that will be scoured out by the SE wind soon.

  76. Well it is a good thing I took a picture of the light snow covering we had…….it went poof

    Up to 35.1 in Sutton

    1. Just drove through the CT River Valley Towns of Belchertown, Amherst, and Hadley. Roads (main and side) are wet with a mixed rain and snow falling and temps fluctuating between 33 and 35. I was thinking as I was looking at the about 0.5″ that has accumulated on grassy surfaces, as this fast zonal flow, and elevation driven accumulation, reminds me of a March type storm.

      1. I was thinking the same thing. Only thing is I didn’t think climo would support this today to be honest. I thought 1-3 here tops but we’re gonna go right by that. Concentrated area I’ll give you that

  78. Not a huge surprise. I think most of what TK and I wrote noted elevation exceptions to the general lowered snowfall expectations. I have a friend in Rutland at about 1000-1050 feet and he said they have about 2″ so very consistent within that elevated region probably 800-1200 feet on average in that area.

  79. JMA, I agree with your observation. This stretch of weather reminds me more of March than late December: Highly variable, periodically windy, temperature oscillations, marginal cold.

    By the way, where’s the steady, heavy rain? And where’s the wind? This thing will be out of here in a few hours. I guess the wind will pick up as the low exits. But, if the rain doesn’t start coming down soon we’ll wind up with a very minor rain/wind event.

  80. Up here in Bethel by Sunday River it is really coming down. Started late morn flurries then it was steady light snow. Around 3 pm it shifted from light champagne powder with minimal accumulation to bigger flakes and heavier and accelerated accumulation. Seems like we had 1″ around 1pm and now at 4 pm we have at least 3″ if not 4″; and it is coming down pretty good- not much wind near the town but there was considerably more wind at the mountain when I took a last run at 3 o’clock. Very pretty here.

    1. I have not heard anyone use the term champagne powder in years. I never would have remembered on my own. You gave me a nice smile and wink at my dad. Thanks. Happy skiing

  83. Temp down a bit here. Wunder stations still saying NNE or NNW wind. I cannot tell as flag on pole is absolutely stock still.

  84. It turned back to snow about half hour ago and its snowing to beat the band. Got a quick coating of snow.

  85. I see the TV stations are doing live shots in NH. Rain in Boston is boring I suppose. The news directors need some snow action to go along with the nor’easter narrative I guess.
    Raining pretty decent here. 0.39″ so far. Temp steady at 34 degrees most of the afternoon.

  86. 0.17 inch in the rain gauge so far.

    Up to 39. Was mixed with snow and 36 until about 3pm When it went to all rain
    and the temp creeped upward.

    Some of the 18Z NAMs looked like the HRRR. Can’t use the 10:1 ratios, I don’t think.

    Best guess for the Boston area is 1/2 inch to perhaps 2 inches. It would take some
    doing to top 2 inches. I continue to watch.

  87. Thanks Dave for the SPC link earlier.

    We did get into a nice burst of snow up here for awhile but the back edge has now moved through. We ended up with about 2.5″ and have 7″ on the ground overall. I’m NW of Albany so just a bit too far west to get into the heavy stuff with a late developing coastal like this. Still a pretty scene though….I took this photo a few hours ago:

    https://s23.postimg.org/hj3zrackr/IMG_4647.jpg

    The snow even here is pretty wet and plastered on everything. Hope you guys get into a little action on the back side later.

    1. Thanks for sharing. Nice. Please send it this way.

      We’re watching and hoping, but watch the HRRR be just a big tease.

      Early was showing about 6 inches (10:1) and 3 inches (kuchera) for Boston, BUT has been slowly backing off all day.

      Now at 1 (kuchera) and 3-4 (10:1) or thereabout.

      We’ll probably get skunked. 😀 😀 😀

  88. According to JR, snow should reach Boston between 8 and 10 pm. Totals under 1″ but I get the impression at least a good coating. We will see.

  89. Looking at radar loops, the snow is beginning to collapse SouthEastward, especially out
    around Worcester. It has changed backed to snow almost down to the CT line.

    It looks like Vicki and Blackstone’s area will go back to snow very soon, if it hasn’t
    started already.

    Have fun!

  90. I just nudged up to 35. Still raining at a decent clip. Up to 0.47″ in the Accurite. 3.61″ so far for the month.

    2. That’s three (3) months in a row with average to above average precipitation. 😀

      0.21 in the gauge here.

  91. We’ve had all snow in Lunenburg, MA. The past hour the flakes have been huge. I just measured 4.25″.

  93. Any thunder snow up there in MA. Some areas north of me there was thunder as it switched back to snow.

  94. Boston reporting an EAST wind now, NOT SE. BUT temp is at 40 as it is here.
    Booo. Norwood reporting North Wind.

    So things are about to turn around. I don’t know how long it will take to get
    the column cooler. It is nearly 5:30. Probably 2 hours or more. How much precip
    will be left?

  95. When the switch to snow happened where I am big flakes and snowing to beat the band for a half hour leaving a coating of snow. Things have quieted down here.

  96. Do to the intensification of the low pressure system I would not be surprised if there was thunder this evening

  99. Philip I had little snow earlier than rain and just a quick burst of snow leading to a coating. Its been all sorts of weather here in CT today from accumulating snow northwest hills, thunder snow, and heavy rain with lightning.
    Officially BDL picked up 0.3 so far bringing the season total to 11.6 inches.

  101. Pretty wide variety of weather today here in CT. I did not get thunder when the flip of snow happened. Thunder snow is one thing I have never experienced in my life. I have seen all types of weather including living through a tornado but never experienced thunder snow.

  102. I’m going to be mostly away from the blog and Facebook until around 9:30PM. May be able to check in briefly before 7 though. Going to a movie. Will get caught up a bit later!

  104. I think Phillip said BZ had 55 next Wednesday. Channel 7 has 54.
    I checked the new NBC Boston. They have 47. But it still looks like the NECN forecast. At any rate, it appears the new station is going with a 10 forecast. The mets look like will be shared with NECN with Noyes the chief.
    I just don’t see how channel 7 survives with news, Family Feud, and those judge shows. With no network, I don’t see how the news will keep them afloat.

  105. I am hearing it is now pounding heavy wet snow back in Coventry and most of the hill towns of Tolland County and NE CT.

  108. Nice radar signature of the low. Can see that handing out in western Mass and CT.

    Now, how far east can the boundary layer cool before that western backlash zooms up into Maine and eastern NH ?

    Windswept soaking rain down here. It may be over 40F, but it’s awful raw out.

    1. Crap, my mailbox better not be destroyed when I get back home! That is some real heavy wet snow and it looks like there could be at least another hour plus of it to go. Already an inch in Coventry.

  110. 18z GFS showing accumulating snow first weekend of 2017. I am not buying that but throwing it out there.

  112. My co-worker who also lives in Coventry said it took her 45 minutes to drive home 10 miles from the office in Manchester. This is normally a 15 min. drive. All rain in Manchester and Hartford but pounding snow a few miles east where elevation is 500+ feet. Very reminiscent of a spring like storm.

  113. That’s the problem with having the initial storm going up towards Hudson Bay. There really isn’t much cold surface air to work with even on the backside of the storm. I’m struggling to find a surface temp below 32F to our west out to NY State. It truly does have aspects of a spring storm.

  114. 0.7 with latest report at BDL. For season one 12.3 inches of snow has fallen. Came into December with just 1.5 inches from that snow we had back on October 27th. 10.8 inches of snow has fallen this December with 6.5 of that coming on the 17th.

  115. My bad should have said 12 inches so far this season at BDL. 10.5 inches has fallen so far at BDL in December.

  116. It is snowing sideways here. Went to store for an hour, flipped back to snow and I have maybe a fresh 1.5 to 2″ of new snow after the flip

  117. Crap! Up to 42 here!! *()!@#*()&!*@#&*!&@*(#&!*(@#&*&#*&

    I think Boston is going to LOSE the race!

    The collapse of the snow SE reversed itslef for quite a while, now perhaps finally
    on the move again.

    We shall see.

    1. I think you could end as wet snow …..

      Wind will come around to NW and you’ll fall from 42 to like 34 or 35F within the next 60 to 90 minutes, maybe even sooner.

      I’d guess a thin coating on the grass and car tops might be a reasonable expectation given how mild it’s gotten.

  119. Interesting…
    The rain snow line is aligned pretty much where the 925MB 0C line is located.

    Going out again for a bit.

  121. Vicki that is exactly how big the flakes were here when it flipped to snow a few hours ago here. Don’t be surprised if you get a quick coating or maybe a little more.

        1. Hahahaha. We did also but I don’t think we had as much snow to start as you did. How much is on the ground now?

          1. I would say about 0.2 inches. There were places in the Northwest Hills of CT with 4 5 inches today.
            As I said earlier officially at Bradley 0.7 bring the season total to 12 inches of snow.

  122. Storm going just west of Vineyard and Nantucket as surface winds veer from E to SE and temps continue to rise into the upper 40s.

  125. Went into cvs while raining. Came out to all SNOW!!!!!!#

    In the city, W. Roxbury.

    Checked my weather ststion. 37 at home, so suspect it is snowing there as well.

  126. Secondary low undergoing slow intensification as it crosses the cape. It will really begin to deepen once it enters the gulf of maine. Had this low experienced rapid intensification prior to crossing the canal, eastern sections would have experienced at least a few additional inches of snow. This is why northeast MA is poised to become clipped by brief accumulating snows before precip shuts off.

        1. Snowing really good here in JP. Everything is covered, including the streets.
          For anyone who thought that it would not accumulate, well, think again.

          Down to 34 with Dp 32.

          That snow crashed to the coast in a hurry!!!!!

          WE HAVE THUNDER SNOW! House just shook with a GOOD BLAST OF THUNDER!!!

    1. Back edge moving through Springfield and rapidly heading toward Worcester. As long as the remainder of the precip remains all snow, a coating-2 inches should be realized before it’s out of here.

  128. Looking ahead I see little or no change to the overall trend, jet stream, and positioning of cold. Of course this can change. But if it holds, this may mean more rainstorms for the coast and some very heavy snows in Maine. Central and especially Northern Maine’s already had a healthy dose of snow this season. I believe that trend will continue and we could see Maine come in with banner figures in terms of snowfall by the time the snow season is done: 200+ inches in some places with some mountains seeing over 300 inches.

  129. Thunder snow in Westwood. A nice flash of lighting just occurred. Storm is really beginning to intensify and there appears to be some convergence over eastern MA.

    1. Yes. Quick half inch despite warm ground in heavy snow. If you look at the radar, you will see a linear slice of yellows and oranges over eastern MA. That’s what I’m under right now with another couple of hours to go.

  132. Snow was short lived.

    Plow making second pass on our little streets. Assumed first time was slush so it didn’t freeze. Second time is anyone’s guess but it looked like a ton of sparklers on the Fourth of July so many sparks from blade. And he is back for a third time.

    1. And pass number 4. I’m not sure of the reasoning. He just raised plow on exit and is tossing salt. Perhaps it is a way of removing slush and then dropping salt on bare pavement

  135. Hello everyone! We have thundersnow here in Reading!! It’s a shame this will all end soon but at least i saw some thundersnow!

  139. It switched to snow in Wrentham, but precip has let up now. Coating on some surfaces. Many thunder snow reports from Boston northward. And farther north, some ridiculous happenings as this storm explosively intensifies. NWS Gray, ME has transmitted reports of snowfall rates of 6″/hr!!

    1. 6 inches per hour!!! Insane!! Not sure I have ever seen it snow that hard.
      3 or 4 inches per hour perhaps, but 6? nope.

  147. Looking at the Lowell ma webcam, looks like they got 1-2 inches. I wish I would have seen that. Must have been intense. We missed out on the thunder snow 🙁

  148. Left Quincy at 720 to 44 and rain. Got on 128 in Braintree and by Randolph started to mix. Arrived home in North Attleboro to mixed rain and snow and 34 at 810. Was mostly snow in Sharon area on 95. I did see 2 sanders in that area of 95 so that is good they are getting ahead of it.

  149. Wow, widespread thunder snow out there! Cannot recall that many thunder snow reports at once during a storm before. This thing is really bombing out.

    I had 5″ per hour and 12″ in 2.5 hours during the Blizzard of 2013 and have never seen snow that hard in my life. The 6″ per hour in Maine is absolutely insane.

  150. Snow intensity has backed off a tad. Temp nudged up to 34. Still snowing.

    Looking at radar, I get the sense that things are beginning to tilt towards the NW.
    Response to storm Moving almost due North now towards the Gulf of Maine?

    I dunno, just watching.

    1. Not surprising that back edge is rapidly approaching as storm is rapidly moving away with rapid intensification. Snow has actually let up in Westwood. Another hour and perhaps an inch tops and that’s all she wrote. Still very exciting. Wasn’t expecting the brief thundersnow. Due to warm ground, ground snow is melting as quickly as it’s stacking up hence, still a coating as precip has lightened.

    2. Since the storm is intensifying real quick, wouldn’t that make the storm stall a little bit or maybe not because therr is no blocking?? I see the echoes to the west are getting stronger.

      1. Echoes are getting stronger a tad as the storm continues to precip. But no blocking HI is present and thus the storm pulls away before getting a true hold on eastern new england.

  152. I went to graduate school in Buffalo. Lake effect snow and ocean effect snows are two different animals. It used to snow so hard that I literally could not see the person standing next to me in 6-8 inches per hour snows!!!

  153. Kudos to the HRRR today on correctly showing the snow line collapsing back to the coast, it nailed that. It also captured the brief burst of heavy snow.

    It’s predicted snow fall amounts will not verify.

    1. Nice to see you get into the action! HRRR did verify except for its inflated amounts. However, I must say that TK and the majority of the METS did a nice job with this backend feature as well.

  157. Ended up with 4″ in Tolland, CT in a very brief period of time.

    Jackpot was Rutland and Fitchburg, MA coming in with 10″

  158. It’s all done just to the southwest of Boston with coatings. I suspect an inch or two maximum over far northeast MA as there is still an hour or two of snow to go. Down east Maine to get walloped as the storm bombs out!

    1. In Bethel, ME we have little wind—steady snow fall– inch or so an hour now. But I wonder if the gusts will come as earlier predicted.

  159. Several reports coming in from southern Maine closing in on a foot. Central Maine and the foothills should exceed 12+. NH/VT getting screwed big time as the storm shifted further east so the big totals will now be Maine.

    1. Wow ….. We went to short sands beach quite often during the summers when I grew up in Lowell. Nubble light must look awesome in all that snow, well, if you can see it 🙂 🙂

  162. Nada…literally ….here. No snow. No thunder snow

    Blackstone, I have some bad….maybe ….news for you. You may have to move to a warmer climate sooner than planned. I just got here so if you are wishing snow away I think it is only fair and reasonable you leave first 🙂 🙂 🙂

  163. Very concerned about the coming high winds. Was outside cleaning up and heard some trees cracking behind my house and wind is dead calm in Sterling.

  164. I’ve made it back home after driving through some hyperspace snow between Reading and Woburn, and how fitting as I had seen Rogue One. 😉

    About 1 inch here. About to end. Will go out to scrape driveway to limit the frozen snow issue for tomorrow. Gotta watch my Bruins on DVR. 😛

  165. Who wants to bet the event for January 6 to 8 goes either to the south just brushing the cape with snow showers or nothing at all or going to close and giving us rain again.
    euro
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016122912/ecmwf_mslpaNorm_us_10.png

    GFS
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016122918/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_38.png

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2016122912/navgem_mslp_pcpn_us_30.png

    one of two models I think are garbage as of right now
    the JMA
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2016122912/jma_mslpaNorm_us_8.png

    Most robust and least reasonable with a full out nor-easter with a perfectly placed area of high pressure the Canadian to ruin our hopes and dreams
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016122912/gem_mslpaNorm_us_40.png

  167. Off to sleep and dream of snow. Before leaving…thank you TK and everyone here for a great lead up with amazing discussion and input. I may not have had the snow but as I’ve said a gazillion times….anticipation is half the joy and you all provided the anticipation and then some

    Most of all JPDave I am thrilled you not only had snow but thunder snow. Cannot think of anyone more deserving.

    1. That is a spectacular map. Thanks for sharing. BTW, what a bear to try and forecast that much nuance.

      Ended up with maybe just under 7″. Final measurement is waiting for me outside.

  169. In Sudbury it started to snow very lightly around 4:00 then it went to rain. Then around 8:00 it started to snow in earnest. We got about 1-1/2 inches of snow. But we missed out on the thundersnow! 🙁

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