Friday Forecast

105 Comments

7:23AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 30-JANUARY 3)
Watch for icy areas on untreated surfaces today, especially this morning. Melting/drying should take place during the day with a gusty wind and dry weather behind the departing storm of yesterday. The next system will be much weaker, moving in from the west and producing only a little light snow for New Year’s Eve Saturday night except light rain near the South Coast. This will exit early Sunday, the first day of 2017, with a generally dry and pleasant day expected as high pressure moves in, but this will quickly slip off to the east and broad low pressure from the southwest will bring at least cloudiness and the threat of some wet weather later Monday into Tuesday.
TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Watch for icy areas on untreated surfaces especially morning. Highs 35-42. Wind W 15-30 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-26. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty, diminishing overnight.
SATURDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs 35-42.
SATURDAY NIGHT – NEW YEAR’S EVE: Mostly cloudy. Spotty light snow showers except rain showers South Coast. Lows 27-35.
SUNDAY – NEW YEAR’S DAY: Partly sunny. Chance of rain showers South Coast early. Highs 38-46.
MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of rain/ice late day or night. Lows 22-30. Highs 35-43.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows 32-40. Highs 40-48.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 4-8)
Fair and somewhat colder January 4-6. Risk of snow/mix around January 7-8.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 9-13)
Fair weather early in the period. Unsettled weather returns later in the period. Temperatures near to above normal.

105 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  3. Thank you TK.

    Heard from friends in York ME. They are near harbor and said it was inland that must have had heavier snow. It rained where they are till about 8:00. They had just a few inches.

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.

    So it snowed at my house for perhaps 2 1/2 hours, but after the initial 1 hour
    burst of the good stuff, it was light and the temp bumped up a bit, Halting the accumulation. Accumulation was not worthy of a measurement. My guess would
    be about 3/4 inch, perhaps 1 inch tops. Pretty icy this morning with some icy accumulation remaining on the untreated streets and side walks. Icy/crusty 1/2 inch
    or so on grassy surfaces. That’s all she wrote.

    Funny thing. I just looked at the 0Z Euro snow map. It had a full 4 inches for Boston.
    That model may be good, but a short range mesoscale model it is not. (OK some question the snow algorithm, but the qpf is from the actual Euro and that was WAY
    off as well) 😀

    Looking ahead…. blah, blah, blah , blah blahdade blah blah blah

    Unless we get another sneaky system (yes even like yesterday), I don’t see much
    down the road. We’ll have to keep watching for changes, but so far I just don’t see it.
    MORE of the same ole shit.

      1. The owner of that site takes pride in his snow algorithm.

        See notes from his last update:

        Updates 12/02/16
        – Fixed a bug that skewed our snowfall & ice totals in some cases where there was a drastic temperature change during the storm.

        This could have caused overly high, or even overly low snowfall totals in extreme temperature swing situations.

        _________________
        Andrew Revering
        F5Weather
        http://www.f5wx.com/

        Has anyone ever heard of this guy? What is his background and training?

          1. I think TK is refering to not just the subsciprtion service you use, but the ECMWF’s snow issues in general.

            Looking at the ECMWF’s standard snow tool output from the 00z 12/27 run.

            Hartford / BDL / CT /MA Border 5-9″

            Westfield/Springfield/Amherst 9-14″

            Worcester/Fitchburg/MA/NH Border 12-17″

            Bedford/Lexington/Burlington 4-6″

            Boston/Quincy/Revere 2-4″

            ECWMF struggled with the progressiveness of the system and not picking up on the rapid drying from the west that would take place once the system bombed to the east, the warmth at 925, the impact surface temps would have on accumulation, and elevation differences, as it made almost no distinction between the east slopes of the Berks and Worcester hills when compared to their adjacent valleys. Warmer than climo ocean temps also seemed to be missed, but that would be expected and have to be accounted for by any forecaster.

            1. Thank you. It’s too bad as it is such a decent model otherwise.

              Wondering, is the qpf generated otherwise decent? OR is that wacked out as well?

              But as you indicated, it is up to the forecaster to know this and adjust a forecast accordingly.

              Duly noted. Thanks again.

  5. Thanks TK. Very slippery on untreated surfaces this morning.

    I find myself in agreement with pretty much everything in TK’s outlook today. Weak system for New Year’s Eve, may provide some drops/flakes for the overnight festivities. Complex but not overly impactful storm centered around Tuesday with rain. “Somewhat colder” is a good way to describe the late week period, it will cool down but the heart of the cold will be centered well to our west. Snow threat Jan 7 or 8; most early indications are suppressed but I think that may trend north, that was the time frame I picked out a few days ago for possibly more widespread snow. And for mid-January, I think we may return to the late December pattern. Southeast ridging with regular precipitation threats for us but strongly favoring rain/mix with a storm track to the west. And then the question will become, as we head towards the end of the month and February, do we ever lock in the sort of pattern that could get us anywhere near average snowfall in the coastal plain? TBD…

    1. Thank you and I am with you. Dr. Cohen not withstanding, this pattern
      has a snapping turtle bite to it that will not let go!!

      At the very least, it has been kind to areas up North where they need the snow way more they we do. 😀

      Perhaps we can gran another sneaky snow event or 2 or 3??????

      CMC had a beauty on the 12Z run for around 1/6 or so, BUT it went POOF
      on the 0Z run. Now there’s a surprise.

  9. 12z run of the GFS brings southern wave further north next weekend resulting in a light to moderate snowfall. Now, let’s see some consistency.

  10. I was just noticing that for next Friday as it starts as snow then goes over rain for south shore and rain line gets close to Boston.

  12. In the big picture, there’s a ridge nudging up into Alaska … Perhaps a smaller one nudging up towards Greenland and seemingly a fairly decent almost full latitude trof setting up over North America.

    Of course, the SE ridge and/or the trof centering itself too far west of us wouldn’t be favorable for snow in New England. With that said, I think after a few mild days to start off the new year, there could be a 2 week window setting up, say Jan 5th through the 20th that at least offers a better opportunity for snow region wide:

    2. In Billerica you mean?
      Not Logan.

      Logan’s total must be “about” 6 inches for the season.
      Somewhere around that, perhaps even a bit less.

  15. I know that a lot on here love winter, but for those of us who don’t, here are a few things to help us out.
    Two more weeks and met winter is half over. 5.5 weeks and celestial winter is half over.
    We add 2 plus minutes of daylight per day after the 7th of January and it accelerates as we move into February.
    Daylight savings time begins on March 11. Spring and summer clothes will be in department stores in about 5-6 weeks.
    Things like these keep me going for the next 8-10 weeks.

    1. That’s a good way to look at it.

      For me I enjoy the Winter and “try’ to take it as it comes (often complaining all the way!)

      By mid-march or so, I am getting my fishing gear in order and I’d be ready
      for SPRING. Just give me a few good snowstorms to pass the time. 😀

    2. you would hate winter less if you found an activity to do within it. Anyone that says they hate a season wiether its summer, spring, fall or winter has nothing they look forward to in that season. For me for example I am not that big of a fan of spring. Allergies start up, (part of the reason I like winter is that everything is dead so no allergies 😀 ) Spring semester always go slower even though its shorter by a week or two just because you start to look forward to biking and beach weather. Summer I love because of all the things I do from camping to the beach to hiking and biking. My point is find something you like to do and you will not hate it as much.

      1. I have arthritis that cold makes worse. Also cold air asthma. I try to stay out of the cold as much as I can. I’ve hated snow and cold since I was a little kid. Never liked to play in the snow, couldn’t stand being cold and bundled up. I like all 3 of the other seasons. I’ve loathed winter ever since I can remember and it ain’t gonna change.
        And you dont have SAD either I’m guessing 😉

        1. SAD=seasonal adjustment disorder I presume.

          I feel for anyone who suffers from that.

          My son has a real problem with it.

          I don’t like the short days, but I don’t suffer from
          SAD at all. I enjoy a brisk Winter’s night, but that is just I.

          1. That’s right. The dark gets me the worst. Followed by the cold. I leave for work in the dark, and come home in the dark. It gets to me. Cold sometimes makes me physically ill. Cold air in my lungs makes it hard to breath sometimes.

    4. It is truly SAD in many ways. It is a shame that having such an affliction makes you wish time away. We have so little of it. I’m really sorry, Blackstone.

      1. Eh, you get used to it. Really the worst is February and March. By April 1st or so, I can see the end of it. I have one of those light things that helps some. And I know it’s bad you so no lecture, but I go to the Tan O Rama twice a week January thru April. That gives me some UV and heat that I miss during the winter.

      1. keep it there or a tad further east but not to much I rather see the coast have some rain for good snows around here in this type of pattern… I know im being a snow piggy 🙂

  18. Retrac – that is the squall line that hit me in NY earlier – it is regenerating and regaining strength as it plows through MA. Blackstone and Vicki – you are in line for it next!

  19. Thanks, TK.

    We are getting a light snow squall right now. But there are breaks in the clouds with blue patches. Very pretty sky and the blowing snow adds to the beauty.

  24. Was busy playing with a new Christmas toy and was surprised to look out the window, as blackstone said, and see it is snowing like crazy.

  25. SNOWING in the City. It’s really dark “just” to me West. I expect a good
    snow shower/Squall momentarily. Out ahead of that, just routine snow showers, not flurries, but showers. 😀

    1. Can see it on radar. Pretty fine looking squall line.

      I thought of mark’s snow when I first saw this.

      This is not a plume from the Lake’s as that would look different.

      This looks like some sort of mid-level disturbance passing through.
      Any definitive explanations out there?

        1. Dave, all this snow shower and squall activity today is of Lake Ontario origin. The one squall though did really seem to morph and regenerate as moved through MA. Lot of dynamics across the region today with the storm blowing up over the maritimes and the strong WNW winds

  27. Snow squall hitting my area right now….very dark, visibility down to a half mile and really windy

    1. I’ve been busy, but I did see that!

      Let’s see what other models have to say as we approach that time frame.

      For now, just take solace in the fact there “might” be something brewing. 😀

  30. It concerns me that 3 of the models are picking up on this 8 days out. It rarely comes together when they show a storm like this that far out.

    1. Wouldn’t focus on the details….if one likes snow, the chances look favorable next weekend, but nothing is ever a lock especially in New England

  34. It won’t take long for that map to be all over social media.

    That said, our best chance of a widespread significant snow in a while is going to be around that weekend.

    It is likely going to result from a pattern anomaly rather than a shift to a new pattern.

  35. I posted this yesterday but it got lost in the snow talk.
    We have a new weathercast starting on Sunday. NBC Boston starts broadcasting at 3 am. Looks like Matt Noyes is the chief along with Pete. I’m not sure who else they have but I’m sure we’ll see some of the NECN folks. I like Noyes. He doesn’t get as much face time with the general public since he’s buried on NECN.
    I also see they are doing a 10 day forecast. I’m not so much a fan of that except for maybe the high and low temp within 4-5 degrees.
    I’m not sure how channel 7 survives long term.

        1. Channel 7 is moving to channel 16 with fios/verison with the new replacing it in the channel 7 location

          1. I can’t remember the last time I watched anything in standard definition. Charter out her in Worcester is putting the new NBC station on channel 10 and moving WJAR (NBC providence) to channel 17.

  38. 18Z GFS has the storm for the 1/6 time frame, but it looks like sleet and/or rain mixes in about up to Boston (so far anyway).

      1. Its far out it could very well come up the coast who knows. That second piece of energy is what has my attention for the 7/8

        1. Oh I understand that. Just posting what Mr. Gfs said.
          It is the 2nd piece that the Euro blows up. 😀

          1. Im wondering if we could not have a sneaky one or two inches New years eve night north of the mass pike.

  40. As is typically the case the models will play around with the energy for the January 6-8 time frame. Don’t lock into any one solution. Just keep the time frame in mind for potential storminess in the region.

  41. I don’t have much concern about systems around the 6-8th coming too far north and west and becoming wet. I would lean toward snow or a miss.

  43. I know there will be run to run variability, but the 0Z GFS has everything suppresed
    to the South giving us ZILCH! CMC has backed off, still having the system, but more
    to the South limiting the snowfall. Still gives SNE something. We shall see if the Euro is a total debacle. 😀 Here’s saying NO WAY it shows 15-20 inches across SNE this run.
    We shall see. 😀

    Would be typical of this year. Mostly cutters, but when there is something possible
    coming up the coast, it’s always OTS. Here’s hoping that this one doesn’t succumb as well. Don’t like what the GFS is showing. Don’t like it at all.

    1. As JMA stated, snow or OTS would be more likely then something further north. Things shift temporarily to prevent a cutter there, but they don’t necessarily line up for southern New England snow quite that easily either. Long way to go. Will watch it.

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