Saturday Forecast

127 Comments

1:50AM

I would like to thank each and every one of you for following this blog not only during 2016, but going all the way back to its beginning at the end of 2010! Please celebrate the new year responsibly and safely. Best wishes to all for a happy and healthy 2017!

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 31-JANUARY 4)
High pressure retreats to the east today and tonight as we say goodbye to 2016 and welcome 2017, a low pressure area tracking eastward just north of New England will send an area of precipitation eastward across southern New England, but this will be a relatively minor event. The time frame and temperature profile will result in snow for western to north central MA, northwestern CT, and southwestern NH by mid evening with some minor accumulation possible, so watch for a few potentially slippery spots for walking and driving. Toward midnight, the area of precipitation should be from the I-495 to I-95 belt from southeastern NH through eastern MA down into CT and northwestern RI as a mix of snow and rain, and after midnight areas to the southeast will see just light rain as it will be too mild there to support snow. By Sunday morning, it’s all offshore and a weak area of high pressure approaching from NY State will result in fair and nice weather for the first day of the new year. This high will drift eastward through Maine into the Canadian Maritimes during Monday as a broad and complex low pressure area begins its approach from the southwest, bringing cloudiness into the region by Monday, possibly wet weather by Monday night, and certainly by Tuesday. This looks like a rain event but icing may be possible at the start if it arrives Monday night. This system will move away on Wednesday and fair weather will return, but colder air lagging behind will allow it to be a mild day.
TODAY: Sun dimmed at times by variable high cloudiness. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH early gradually shifting to W then SW.
EVENING: Clouding over. A period of snow southwestern NH, western to central MA, northwestern CT with minor accumulation possible here. A period of snow and rain with no accumulation of snow expected in southeastern NH, northeastern and east central MA, southeastern CT, and northwestern RI. Temperatures steady 33-40. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
OVERNIGHT: Mainly cloudy. A period of light rain southeastern RI and southeastern MA. Lows 27-35. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 35-43. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 15-20 interior valleys, 20-30 elsewhere. Wind light varaible.
MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of ice/rain at night. Highs 37-44. Wind light SE.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Lows 32-40. Highs 40-48.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 35-42. Highs 46-53.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 5-9)
Watch the period January 6-8 for the risk of some snow/mix but activity may stay to the south. This period will likely be book-ended by fair and chilly days January 5 and 9 based on current timing.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 10-14)
The next time frame to watch for possible unsettled weather is January 11-13 but somewhat milder weather is expected during this period.

127 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  1. Thank you, TK. Will ski again this am in Bethel in great conditions because WHW helped lead me to the center of the storm. Happy 2017 and thank you to all. ⛷☃✅

  2. Happy New Years eve and a Happy New Year everyone!! Be safe..

    On the weather front all models have shifted out to sea or to far south to give a good snowstorm to us.Euro has it well to the south not effecting us.

    1. Happy New Year Matt! It’s been awesome watching you find your way in this science through what you post here. You’ll make a huge difference. Keep on it!

  3. TK, thank you for a great year of forecasting! And Happy New Year!!

    It’s already new Year’s in New Zealand.

    1. I posted about New Zealand on Facebook the other night. How ironic. 😉

      Happy 2017! Keep the quizzes coming!

  4. Thanks TK for all you do to keep this blog going and also providing daily updates even when you didn’t feel well. We appreciate all your hard work, dedication and also the knowledge you share with us too. Although many of us have never met you, I think I speak for many that we consider you a great friend any that you also provided us with friendships with many others here that we would not have had!

    Happy New Year all!

    1. It’s always been a pleasure to do this blog and it’s not going anywhere. 🙂

      I’m hoping to meet more WHW readers in person in the coming year!

      Happy New Year!

  5. Good morning and thank you TK. Your dedication to this site is truly amazing.
    THANK YOU!

    re: snow chances for the 1/6-1/8 time frame
    I’m not sure what happened, but wow! what a difference 12 hours makes.
    I suppose it could flip back, but not looking good now with all of the action
    suppressed far to the South of the region.

    I saw the snow predictions from all of the BZ channel 4 staff, including all mets and many on air news staff. ALL predicted above average. I was only interested in the
    Mets predications. I could not locate on their website, but I think I remember
    Barry at about 54 inches and Eric at 57 inches. Seriously, who would give a rat’s ass about anyone else’s prediction over there. 😀

    1. I was under the impression that as a group the WBZ mets settled on 55 inches. Regardless, that amount is waaaay too high IMHO.

    2. YOUR dedication to this site is what is truly amazing, which will become even more evident later today… 😉

      You may be the perfect definition of “weather nut” my friend. Don’t worry, it’s a compliment. 😛

      We’ll see the January 6-8 time frame change even more on model runs I’m sure.

      WBZ says you can still submit guesses for their snow contest. Hmm…

  7. I find it interesting that rain events are almost never suppressed to our south. We are certainly not missing Tuesday’s rain!

    1. Sure seems that way, doesn’t it. But seriously, rain events get suppressed South.
      Our problem is the damn Pacific Jet.

      1. Also just a correlation to the slight change in the synoptic set up that allows for a brief return to colder than normal. Zonal flow drops further south, Pacific energy comes ashore further south on the west coast, allows for sheering of the energy over the central and southern Rockies, and disparate energy parts slide off shore from the mid-Atlantic, aligned with the flat suppressed jet, as a colder high looms to the north.

        Don’t jump from model to model, run to run. Continue to watch the periods of disturbed weather and look for subtle changes that could allow for a change in the current outlook and trend. Key being outlook and trend. Too far out for a forecast no matter what the TV man or woman says….

  8. Thanks TK! Its been another great year being part of this great weather blog.
    I can’t wait to hear everyone’s bold weather predictions for 2017 tomorrow. I have been doing some thinking about what I am going to predict the past couple days. Its fun to look back on the last day of the year and see how many of our predictions happened during the year. This is when I always look forward to hearing TK’s outlook for the year.

  9. Thank you, TK, for all you do to give us this blog where we not only find the forecast but gain knowledge of what is behind the forecast…..for letting us share our passion for weather with others…..and perhaps most important, for bringing us all together in friendship.

    My wish for everyone in our WHW family is a new year full of family, love, health and laughter.

    1. You play a giant role in the blog. I know you’ll deny it, but nobody will believe you if you do, so just accept it as truth and have a very happy new year! 😀

  10. TK and All-Happy New Year! It is a pleasure to be back sharing ideas within the forum> Even more so, seeing I don’t do it much professionally anymore.

    May the love and kindness each of you give, be returned to you in 2017.

    1. You are a master of your craft. Still like that we agree much more than disagree on meteorological analysis. 🙂

  12. i feel like we need to wait and see how the tuesdays storm moves andfast that cold front moves through late week till we have any real idea about the weekend system. We probably will see a wide variety of out comes

  13. in terms of 2017
    im sticking with my winter forcast i made back in early december/late november. spring will average out around normal precip and temps though march could be colder than normal and snowy. summer ends up cool and wet fall becomes warm and dry and start of next winter starts warm and wet

        1. not true, reason for fluctuation is because of the ocean. This is fake news which is a continuing issueand is why there sceptics

          1. yes it is this been proven to be fake and not based on facts. This article been moving around facebook in different forms under conservative websites .Its total garbage. I know more of this stuff than the person who wrote this crap

            1. Difference of opinion Matt. It’s going to happen throughout your life, so you need to learn how to deal with people and data contrary to your way of thinking without becoming hostile. There’s some good data analysis in that article. There’s some decent stuff in what JPDave posted too. If you’re going to be some sort of scientist, you have to be willing to look at all types of data analysis and be open to all possibilities. Do I think the climate is changing? Sure somewhat. Is it as dramatic and dire as some would lead us to believe? No. Is it man made? In my eyes, not really. Do I think some of the data has been faked? Absolutely. Getting grant money is a powerful driver, Matt. I’ve seen all types of data manipulated and faked to keep the grant gravy train running. In the end, we need to do all we can do to keep the planet clean and clean up what we’ve made a mess of.

                2. Sorry. Posted before finished. Kids came in and they captured my attention.

                  Manmade or not, stopping pollution is political. It should not be. It should be a given. No one has absolute answers re the reason for change and it is changing. I don’t believe NOAA or anyone is causing oceans to rise and ice to melt at alarming rates. The bottom line is BOTH sides of the aisle need to get on board with cleaning up our horrific mess. If it is manmade, the problem is solved. If it is not, the earth is cleaned. How much more simple can it be than that?

              2. there is only 2 percent of scientists that believe climate change is not human caused and about 1 percent that do not believe it at all within the 2 percent. That 2% all paid by very bad dirty fuel industries. The exception exxon who developed some good tech to clean up their act All science goes through proposals/ grants …

                1. I know all too well science goes thru grant proposals. I’ve written many. We’ll have to agree to disagree and leave it at that.

    1. I was up there for a very short time last night crunching around on the frozen snow which was atop a bed of dry leaves. It felt like I was dancing in a bowl of cornflakes…

  15. It seems the NAMS and the HRRR want to keep any snow generally West of Worcester
    tonight. RAIN in the coastal plain.

    So what else is now. Not even a touch of snow for New Year’s Eve.

  16. Thanks TK for creating such a wonderful place to talk about weather. Here’s to a New Year filled with health and happiness to everyone on the blog!

    1. The real credit goes to a guy named Frank that actually created the blog for me. He’s a behind-the-scenes backbone to this site. It may not require herculean effort, but he’s always ready to hit the right buttons when something goes wrong.

      And the OTHER real credit goes to all of YOU out there!!!!

  17. Thank you, TK, for creating this blog for all of us weather – lovers. And, for all the hard work you put into it – even when you are feeling down. I may not check in that often but this is the place that when a storm is lurking that I go to first and check your comments and everyone else’s.

    May you and everyone else here on WHW have a healthy and happy new year!

    1. Thank you for your support. I know you are there whether you are able to post or not. It’s comforting know that you and so many are out here. 🙂

      Happy 2017!

  18. Thanks TK, and I echo what others have said, your dedication to this site is greatly appreciated, I’ve learned a lot here the past couple years. Happy New Year all!

  19. Thank you Tk and happy New Year . So glad we got to meet this past summer up Hampton beach . You are a great guy & forecaster .

    1. It was great to see you. Let me know if/when you go back up in 2017 and we’ll hang out for a while and maybe catch a fireworks display!

      1. We always go up ( many people ) the last full week of July Saturday – Saturday . The group has been going for years .

  20. Happy New Year everyone! TK, I also echo the sentiments. You’re truly amazing at what you do. Thank you for providing us such a great platform. As you know, I typically post when there are storms to discuss but I’ve always been a proud observer. Thank you again and a happy and healthy new year to all.

    1. Always great to read your posts and discuss the weather, even if we’re not on the same page in a forecast. Makes for a fun debate. 😉

      I used to have a blast going back and forth with that guy “I’mAlwaysRight” and the other names he used back on the WBZ blog. 😀

  21. Pretty solid warm advection overcast at the moment here in eastern MA. Expect it to thin out in a while.

  22. The storm that explosively intensified just east of Boston a few nights ago has travelled all the way north to Baffin Island and provided Kimmirut with a blizzard.

    The actual low came very near to Kimmirut. It’s temp early this morning made it into the mid 20s. Now about to get on the backside of the low, it’s temp is forecast to plunge below zero.

    http://www.kimmirutweather.com/

  23. A Happy New Year to you all.
    Every morning, I make my coffee, grab my tablet, and read TK’s daily forecast along with the early comments from so many of you. For weather geeks like us, TK has created an amazing gathering place for learning and friendship.
    Thanks so much TK and keep up the wonderful work.

    Let’s plan another get together soon!

  24. Happy new years to all of the WHW family. Thank you Tk for providing this great blog. I don’t post much but I have been a follower since wbz blog. I am going to Dubai for my sister’s wedding from tomorrow until the 12th. Not to be selfish but i hope we don’t have a snowstorm whilr i am gone!

    1. Thank you and happy 2017! Have a safe trip! You may very well miss nothing if everything stays to the south. 🙂

  25. Thanks TK for this blog! What I love about it is the lack of ads. It is so simple to get onto and I can post as much (or as little) as I wish. I am also pleased and amazed that you have been able to keep the trolls away. My concern at the beginning was that the WBZ trolls would immediately pollute this site and ruin it, but thankfully never materialized. I do find it interesting that one individual as yourself is able to keep trolls away but a major local station like WBZ (with I assume an entire IT staff) allows them to post as much crap as they like.

    Anyway, keep up the good work here TK! 🙂

    1. Well, I have had a little help behind the scenes, to give credit to those who prefer to remain nameless (though I did name one earlier). 😉

      I hope you continue to enjoy the site!

  26. Does anyone know anything about the Big Sky weather app that amazons Alexa uses? Not that I’m having any success getting it to work but thot I’d ask

  28. The models show rain this evening generally “about” Worcester Eastward.

    850 temps are aok. Temp 36 here, dew point = 20

    Unless there is a ton of WAA at the boundary layer with this advancing weak system, I am wondering if the snow doesn’t get to the coast????

  31. I am kind of happy since my mom and stepdad have opera tickets next Saturday in NYC and I don’t want snow to prevent them from getting there that it looks like a miss right now but as we know that could change.

  32. Nice afternoon. Eight year old granddaughters bday party was postponed because everyone seems to have some kind of virus. So we took her big present to her house along with one of our two live Christmas trees and had a Bon fire and toasted marshmallows.

  33. Light snow is racing Eastward. So far, I see no sign of surface warm up.
    It sure looks to me like the SNOW makes it to the coast adding to the Holiday festivities. 😀

  34. Wishing everyone a Happy New Year !

    Thankful to be part of this amazing weather blog and to be able to talk weather and sometimes other topics with all the awesome folks here.

  35. Thank you, TK!

    Happy New Year to everyone at WHW!

    Matt, I agree with you that the earth’s climate has been changing. I’m alarmed but it, especially the consequences it has for animals and the environment. I’m not an expert so I can’t claim that man is causing the climate change. Yet, I believe that man is a probable change agent.

    I do, however, concur with Blackstone’s suggestion that we take in and analyze all sides of the debate. This goes beyond climate change. As you know I viscerally hate Donald Trump (this is hard for me as I hate almost no-one), yet I think it’s imperative that we as a nation come together to solve our problems by listening to one another (this includes DJT) and being constructive.

    Blackstone, your point on grants is well taken. I write them myself, and because I am stubborn and refuse to play the game of going down the political route grants have been very hard to come by for me. I’ve been told by liberal grant foundations to focus my health economic grants more on the poor or minorities (my focus is the entire Medicare population, and I don’t want to just focus on poor or minority Medicare beneficiaries). At the same time, I’ve been told by conservative grant foundations to take a free market approach to health economics (I believe the market failures in health care are such an ingrained feature that adopting a free market approach to get a grant is pointless). The lesson that can be drawn is that even science grants – and even those coming from the `impartial’ government – are value-laden. My colleagues tend to play along. I’m stubbornly principled and have not played the game.

    1. I apologize for the typos in my posts. My New Year’s resolution is no more typos. Easier said than done when one is aging rapidly, or so it seems.

      1. very well said. Im learning how to right grants with the proffessor and some phd students. its tedious have anysuggestions throw them at me. Need to learnI. I understand there are bias stuff out there. We as scientists also know alot of info is protected.

    2. Very well said….as always, Joahua. I will remain stubborn also in my belief that we absolutely have to clean our earth.

      I love that you hold to your core beliefs and will not play games. At the day’s end, I have always believed being true to yourself makes it quite easy to look In the mirror at night.

  36. In the 1 1/2 hours I have been away from the computer we suffered some WAA.
    Temp jumped from 36 to 39 and Dp went from 20 to 28.

    It AIN’T GONNA SNOW HERE. Besides most of the initial echoes went NORTH of here.

    Can’t even buy a little light snow. Geez!!!

  39. Happy new year to all and to TK for having this wonderful forum!! Ho hum in the weather department for the near future.

    98% of scientist believe climate is change is real but hey what do they all know 🙂 DJT knows more than all of them I am sure 🙂

    1. Climate change or no…we need to take the same steps to clean up our mess. Or do we just keep making more mess?

    2. 1 97% is accurate. 2 the pause is not true and been proven false. 3 The Ocean is what has caused 2seperated so called stalls in temperature rise. please look at primary sources instead of showing things far from primary sources

    2. non primary source i have yet to find a primary source showing your belief with scientific data and charts. But please if you have any please show. stuff you posted nit picked different soures to put out an idea

        1. show me the primary source for these so called review article. If it does not have a Reference page and proper scientific citations It is not a review article. This is not an proper review article. You should know this if your are so keen on it. If you have not notice, almost everything that I post about my view side of the really critical issue a primary source or something that has proper references to primary sources or secondary sources that lead to the primary source. So till you supply me with your primary source. I am not going to wait your side that much…. Being the scientist I am I need to see the sources 😉

  45. Happy New Year everyone!!! I look forward to another great year of blogging with all of you and I hope we have a lot of snowstorms and thunderstorms to tracks in the coming year. Later this morning I will be giving my weather predictions for 2017 and I look forward as always to reading yours as well as TK’s outlook for 2017. I will never forget back in 2013 when predictions were made on January 1st and Tom said Boston would have a 20 plus inch snowstorm in February and it happened with the blizzard of 2013.

  46. Happy 2017 to you all!

    I will be posting a blog update, an announcement, and some fun predictions for 2017 this morning after a few hours of rest first. 🙂

  48. Good morning and Happy New Year All.

    https://scontent.fbed1-2.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-0/s526x296/15781699_10207989412840882_4884766199864452800_n.jpg?oh=1728b478145839ee5e629078746f681b&oe=58E7B1C2

    The Euro is back on for the 7th. Not a huge storm, but a solid moderate event:

    http://imgur.com/a/KkXCx

    CMC as well: ( to a slightly lesser extent)

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017010100/gem_asnow_neus_25.png

    GFS has ZILCH for the 7th but has the coastal hugger for the 9th & 10th.

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017010106/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_36.png

    Intially snow then a RAINORAMA! Let’s hope that changes.

    Snow map

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017010106/gfs_asnow_neus_39.png

    1. Wonder what the 12Z GFS will say now. It had a good one for 1/9-1/10, however it hugged the coast too much. That was 6Z. Wait for it…..

  50. I didn’t get the chance to thank TK yesterday, but wanted to say how much I appreciate everything you’ve done and the great dialogue you’ve enabled here…..looking at next weekend, it continues to be our best chance for winter weather, but the details remain elusive…I’m hoping for some more consisterly with the models over the next day or so

  52. Major surge of warmth along the western coast of Alaska, as well as the northern coast.

    Barrow above freezing. 36F on Unisys, 34.2F on weather underground. Either way, warm !!

    1. I have 36 for Barrow. 😀

      btw, not liking 12Z GFS. NOTHING in the 1/5-1/9 time frame.
      Around the 10th, A colorado Low ejecting towards the Lakes for the upteenth facuckta time!!!

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