Monday Forecast

96 Comments

1:46AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 2-6)
A broad area of low pressure will approach today and then move southwest to northeast through the region during Tuesday. Other than a slight risk of some light freezing rain in north central MA and southwestern NH in the early hours of Tuesday, this will be a plain rain event for the region. This system will pull away on Wednesday and we’ll have a day with lingering clouds, increasing wind, and a fairly mild start but cooler finish. This will lead to a colder ending to the week. An offshore low pressure area may bring some cloudiness to Cape Cod on Thursday, and then another wave of low pressure passing south of the region on Friday will bring more widespread cloudiness and perhaps some snow into parts of the region, but this does not look like a significant system at this time.
TODAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 38-45. Wind light variable.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain favoring the South Coast early, spreading north overnight with a slight risk of freezing rain north central MA and southwestern NH. Lows 31-40 evening, rising slightly later. Wind SE to E 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Overcast. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Highs 42-54, coolest southwestern NH north central MA, mildest southeastern MA. Wind E 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny and windy. Lows 35-42. Highs 43-50.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny and windy. Lows 18-25. Highs 30-38.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow, favoring southern areas. Lows 18-25. Highs 28-35.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 7-11)
Continuing to watch the period January 7-8 for the threat of some unsettled weather, with snow favored if moisture is far enough north. Fair weather expected January 9-11. Temperatures below normal early period, near normal late period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 12-16)
Unsettled weather returns early in the period but milder air will mean rain will be favored over snow. Fair weather follows with no major cold.

96 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

    1. Yes, indeed and that was the 0Z run. The 0Z run of the regular GFS looked equally impressive. Sadly, the 6Z run said, sorry all, it’s Out to Sea I go!

      Now, to be fair, it was a 6Z run. It is feasible that today’s 12Z run has it or something close to it back in place. We shall see.

    2. Tj, if you weren’t around yesterday, please check out yesterday’s blog for
      TK’s announcement. 😀

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Models are on again, off again with systems later this week/weekend.
    Big to none, none to minor to moderate to none to big to none……

    We continue to wait and watch. After the 0Z GFS monster, it went OTS on the 6Z run.
    The 12Z CMC had a super monster to a 2-3 inch event.

    Last night’s 0Z Euro went from a 2 inch event to a 4 inch event. Big woof.

    Here is the Euro snowmap for Fri into Sat morning.

    http://imgur.com/a/HF5bo

  5. Thanks JP. I just took a look sounds awesome! I will have to wait for iPhone app. Thanks TK for the great forum here.

    1. Apple makes it so difficult. Absolutely cannot develop an APP for any apple device without the use of a MAC. The code can be developed on a Windows
      machine but to build the actual app to run had to be done on a Mac. I am NOT
      purchasing a Mac to do that. I signed up for a service called Mac in the cloud.
      So then, one still could not build an app WITHOUT and Apple account. I signed up for an Apple account. Now I am working out the details to get that all working.

      To further complicate the problem, the app I built was done in Android Studio
      and is written in JAVA. It is not portable to the Iphone. The whole app
      has to be converted in Visual Studio to a different format using Java Script.
      Java does not equal Java script. All concepts are applicable, they just need
      to be converted to the way Visual Studio and Java Script want it.

      Too much information, I know. Just trying to explain why it was done
      for Android first.

      😀

      1. Dear heavens. Definitely not too much info. I love that stuff. I was curious as to why you went to android and felt certain it was something along those lines. But how ridiculous that in this day and age there is not an easy way to integrate. Are you all set or do you want me to check and see if anyone has a Mac they could loan you? My feeling is it would be a longer rather than shorter loan but I can ask.

            1. No problem. Please never hesitate to ask if I can help. I no nothing about creating an app but tend to be tech oriented and I also can do any other type of support work.

  8. Thanks TK !

    2017 predictions :

    At Mauna LOA, the average weekly CO2 will reach its annual yearly max in May just above 410 PPM.

    The Red Sox will have their early season schedule impacted by a few rain outs. Why MLB do you schedule 19 of their first 29 games at home in April into the first week of May ??? 🙂 🙂 (guess there’s not a lot of knowledge regarding New England spring weather in the MLB scheduling department)

    Peaking back, coming off an extreme El Niño event and transitioning to ENSO Neutral seems to indicate moderate summers in the ENSO neutral period. So, I’ll go with (11) 90F days at Logan.

    The hurricane season became a bit more active last year and I believe it will be near to slightly above average again this upcoming season. I’m not guessing or predicting a direct hit on southern New England. Only pointing out that the last direct hit or fairly close landfall was 26 years ago in 1991.

    It’s going to be a year of increased, combative dialogue on climate change. Given the change of view on the topic coming into the executive branch, first exceptionally strong weather event affecting a largely populated area and the topic will be front and center at a new level.

    Seems we are off to a slow start with winter, so I’ll have to guess that a late March or early April significant snow storm is in the cards.

    Maybe it has been, maybe it hasn’t, seems we’ve seen more supercell thunderstorm events in New England that last several summers and I’ll guess that will occur again with a continued increase in tornado warnings due to better dopplar radar technology continuing to see rotation in thunderstorms more clearly.

    Pats and Red Sox win championships, Celtics make the eastern conference finals and the Bruins make the playoffs.

  9. Happy New Year again everyone! I suspect that sneaky system nudges further north late week and gives southern new england a moderate snow event. Time will tell.

  11. Thanks TK
    The back and forth continues for the 6th – 9th period. This is definitely looking like a time frame of interest and hopefully something materializes.

  12. 12Z GFS developing a beauty in the gulf late on 1/7. 200 mb flow appears to be too flat. We shall see.

  13. The fact that a storm is on the east coast and its a week out leaves room for this thing to track further north. Parts of NC VA get crushed.

      1. Ahh no such luck. Any good stuff stays off shore and any that
        comes on short is Way down East Maine and Northward,
        ()!@#&!*@#*(!@&*#&(!@*&#*!@&#*&!@*#&*!@&#**!@#&

    1. Ok I’ll take that

      I remember a major icing event Jan 9-10, 1991. Jan 7 is my moms angel day. She detested snow but I can ask if she will help. 😉

  16. Just watched a Bernie video. Storm coming up the coast, dependent on the arctic front
    stalling and storm forming over gulf states. Else it forms along the coast and moves OTS.

  17. Flow’s too fast and progressive to get anything of significance at this point. That thing next weekend could still have a chance. Right now the trough has a positive tilt and suppression is the name of the game. Plenty of cold and QPF to work with if the trough decides to pull it back in. After that, it looks to torch with a SE ridge toward mid month. Few cold shots for a couple days here and there. Maybe things change for you guys toward the end of the month.
    I just don’t see winter showing up later in March. Like I said yesterday, that SE ridge has a semi permenant look about it. I don’t see it disappearing anytime soon. Mid March into April your going against climo anyway. If we’re going to get anything of significance (i.e. a good old Miller B, wound up coastal), it’ll be between late January and late February. All depends if the flow slows down long enough and the timing is right. I think snow enthusiasts may have e to rely on the odd clipper, over running event, nickle and dime stuff to get us to 30″ or so.
    Or I could be completely full of shit. As JPDave says, we shall see.
    Lots of winter left.

    1. I know you don’t like the snow and cold, but I still hope you are incorrect.
      I fear that you are at least mostly correct. If the system on 1/7-1/9 misses us or does not materialize, we’re cooked for a while for sure. This was at least
      once solid chance and that is all it was, a chance.

      Waiting on the Euro to see how it digested all of the latest data.
      I suspect it got a headache.

  18. reasoning I will not get excited or disapointed till later this wee. (thursdayish)
    Euro
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017010200/ecmwf_mslpaNorm_us_6.png
    EPS
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2017010200/ecmwf-ens_mslpaNorm_us_6.png
    (euro looks like it has some general agreement but not sure how it sends precipitation up into the region, looks like a light/moderate winter weather event.)

    GFS
    for january 6
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017010200/gfs_mslpaNorm_us_20.png
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017010206/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_18.png

    secondary storm
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017010206/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_26.png

    for January 9th period
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017010200/gfs_mslpaNorm_us_30.png

    GFS does not seem to have a good agreement with the secondary development.

    GFS PAR
    January 6th http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2017010200/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_18.png
    January 9th (secondary storm)
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2017010200/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_27.png
    Canadian
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017010200/gem_mslpaNorm_us_24.png
    ensembles
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2017010200/gem-ememb_lowlocs_us_19.png
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2017010200/gem-ememb_lowlocs_us_29.png
    Canadian is split in two different paths…..

    My point is that I believe we need to wait till Wednesday if not Thursday to get a clearer picture. At this time looking at the models and looking at the afternoon models coming it, it looks like they are saying staying to the south generally. I do have a feeling like all the other times this season the models will not be correct this far out. Probably moving west which has been a trend this winter.

    1. I always loved Longet Island. 😀

      I am always amazed with what ends up in type compared to what
      was in my head. 😀

  21. If that verifies down south with the 12z GFS shows school kids will be very happy and have multiple snow days next week.

      1. If I’m not mistaken, this is the third swarm in three or four months. And I think it has always been a matter of time. I am happy here in MA with our missed snowstorms thank you.

        1. yes, did you see the 6.2 earth quake in Oklahoma and they’re not even on a faultline. I am wondering if we could not see a really bad earthquake some where in the southwest due to a mix of it being near faults and the increased fracking activities of the southwest.

  23. 12z euro sends does not even seem to be giving us anything as anything that oes developed is shoved well south

      1. Also has about 1 inch in NC and traces to an inch in North Georgia.
        Not even remotely close to what the GFS is pitching.

        There is no Agreement among models and ZERO run-to-run consistency within each model.

        Pretty piss-poor performance so far. Hope they get their acts together!

  26. To me that is the key to get a negative tilt on the trough and get a system up here. If no negative tilt and the flow remains flat we miss out.

  27. I believe it could indicate the main trough could tilt more negative. That would potentially pull the low back towards the coast which potentially gives us a storm. One thing you look for is how the upper air flow in the trough is configured. If the larger trough is tilted positive (bottom of the trough is pointed southwest) that tends to push storms out to sea south of us. If the trough has a negative tilt (bottom pointed southeast), that pulls the low closer to the coast.

  29. A tweet like that at this point is like throwing a dart.

    Also, nobody in media should be keying on a record snow predicted by an erratic model. I hope they don’t mention a word about it. It would be a big mistake.

  30. I think the Euro once again has a better handle on things in the medium range right now than the GFS. All the models have been struggling to adjust to the coming cooler pattern which was not very well forecast ahead of time. The working assumption by many, myself included, was that most of the first half of January would be warm, but we’re going to get a several day cooler interval after the midweek rainstorm. However, I think after tripping a few times late last week, the Euro is probably honing in, while the GFS continues with wild run to run swings. Definitely not time to commit to any one solution though.

    This is the second time this season in my mind where the pattern has set itself up to at least potentially produce significant snow in our region. Mid-December was the first, and it didn’t produce a whole lot, just the one medium sized event. This one doesn’t look to promising right now either.

    FWIW, all indications from the models are we go back to warm around 1/10 and stay there for awhile. We’ll see if that happens, not a lock but I’d lean that way. SE Ridge.

    1. The cold is good for about 6 days (January 5-10).
      We do go mild again but still brief cold shots. That is the overall long term pattern. As we saw in December and will see again soon, there are brief “breaks” in that. Right now I’m leaning toward 2 grazes Friday and Sunday, but that’s just a preliminary idea.

        1. I’m not sold on anything yet. Just leaning that way initially. I don’t think the trough sharpens up enough. But if the model forecast is for the entire thing is too far south, it could end up further north and we get into one or both snow shields. I can see that as a valid possibility as well, provided it does traverse the region as 2 waves.

            1. Flip a coin. That’s what I call “a reach” at this point. It’s virtually impossible to tell if that will do anything. I suppose it’s possible, and it will make the first person to mention it look like a hero should it actually happen. 🙂

              We will see how it plays out. My gut feeling says it’s virtually a non-factor.

              1. You’re gut is usually pretty reliable. I thought that it was a stretch. We’ll know soon enough.
                Not getting really good vibes so far. 😀

  33. First area of low pressure on 18z GFS is a miss but as JPDave said this run of the GFS there more of a trend northward and south shore Cape and Islands get into a little snow.
    Less snow for parts of NC and VA than 12z run but for those folks down there it is still a wallop.

  36. That norlun feature is what has concerned me more than the center of low pressure itself. This feature has been present for the past 24 hours.

  37. NORLUN setups are usually non-problematic in very progressive patterns. The 18z GFS’s depiction of the feature as basically a stationary trough between 2 waves of low pressure interacting with the second wave as it comes by is probably an incorrect model forecast.

  38. I watched some of the new NBC Boston (Ch. 60.5) yesterday for the first time and saw Pete’s forecast. When he was on Ch. 7, he clearly was at the beginning stages of male pattern baldness but now he has a full set of hair.

    Vicki, is it a toupee or “hair club for men” (his own) so to speak? Just curious. 😉

    Btw, I like the 10-day forecasts but at the same time if they were to drop them, I would hardly be dissapointed either.

    It is going to take me awhile getting used to NBC not on ch. 7 but I don’t watch the network that much other than Today show, L&O/SVU, Patriots or the SB.

        1. I have not seen him since he left 7 or spoken to him. I did see a pic on FB and seem to recall thinking he had more hair. Good question. If I has to guess, I’d say not a toupe but that is based on nothing

            1. I can u see stand that and it is really good to hear. He is just an honest guy. Corporate politics just don’t fit with honesty. I can’t imagine JR is any too happy with them either.

  40. Vicki, from what I have gathered from the website and other sources, the new NBC Boston has limited range of coverage. Are you out of range?

    According to their website, the station is available in Greater Boston, southern NH and northeastern MA. It is not available via cable in Bristol County and other areas well south of Boston.

    1. I just checked the station. I seem to be getting it. I just sent an email to what I think is his new email address. Thanks for prompting me to get in touch.

    2. Phillip,
      Most people out our way have cable or dish. Over the air off an antenna this far out is sketchy at best. I have Charter cable. I think Vicki has Verizon Fios.
      Bristol county is in the Providence DMA, so they get WPRI, the NBC affiliate out of Providence.

      1. I don’t remember the source but I thought I read somewhere that the station is not available in central MA outside 495. Is this correct?

      2. Meant to add the new station has the same or greater coverage as WHDH. They have 3 stations, that carry the signal. WNEU out of Merrimack, NH, WMFP out of Lawrence, and WBTS on Boston. There’re all low power stations. That’s why they needed 3 stations to cover the same area as the higher power channel 7 on the VHF side.

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