Tuesday Forecast

141 Comments

2:41AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 3-7)
An initial disturbance passing south of New England this morning and early afternoon will bring spotty light drizzle/rain, some of which may freeze on surfaces northwest of I-495 this morning. During this time, a stronger low pressure area will be moving rapidly northeastward through the Mid Atlantic States and will send areas of moderate to heavy rain through southern New England late this afternoon and early tonight. This low will move beyond the region overnight and early Wednesday but it will remain fairly mild until a cold front arrives later in the day Wednesday with one or two rounds of passing showers of rain and snow, rain favoring most areas with any initial shower and snow more possible in areas north and west of Boston if there is a second area as the colder air comes in. Thursday will be a fair but colder day. A wave of low pressure will pass south of the region Friday but may be close enough to bring some light snow to parts of the region, especially southern and eastern MA, CT, and RI. Fair weather should return Saturday behind this system.
TODAY: Overcast. Areas of fog. Scattered light rain/drizzle morning and early afternoon, some freezing on surfaces far northwest of Boston this morning, then more widespread rain which may be heavy at times late-day. Highs 37-45 northwest of Boston, 45-53 Boston southeastward. Wind E up to 10 MPH morning, E to SE 5-15 MPH with higher gusts afternoon.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Rain, heavy at times early, tapering off to spotty light rain and drizzle after. Patchy fog. Temperatures generally steady. Wind variable 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with isolated rain showers morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Risk of rain showers mainly west and north of Boston late in the day. Highs 46-54. Wind W 5-15 MPH increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts late in the day.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Scattered rain/snow showers early. Lows 27-35. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 30-38. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light snow, favoring southern and eastern MA, CT, and RI. Lows 16-23. Highs 28-35.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Lows 12-20. Highs 27-34.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 8-12)
Wave of low pressure should remain offshore and a cold northerly flow may bring a few snow showers January 8 but cannot rule out low pressure to the south passing closer so will watch. Fair and chilly January 9-10. Milder January 11-12 with possible unsettled weather.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 13-17)
Milder pattern with a few episodes of brief unsettled weather with rain showers favored.

141 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  3. Thanks, TK…Good morning, everyone…

    Back to the classroom this morning.

    Today is the latest sunrise under standard time.
    Sunset getting close to 4:30 (this Saturday!)…

    Take care!

  4. Its going to be one of those winters in which the storms mainly go north and west giving us rain/messy storms or to far south and east…. I hate these winters

    1. I’m with you on that one Matt, however, the jury is still out on the next 2 systems. We shall see, although it sure seems to be trending off shore.

  6. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Was I ever disappointed after finally seeing some consistency in the GFS with yesterday’s 6Z run and the 12Z run, Only to be dashed with the 18Z and 0Z runs pitching the OTS
    scenario.

    As matt said, it’s either North and West with RAIN or OTS and a miss. Some Winter’s
    go that way.

    Here’s hoping things trend N&W.

    Euro is “close” with the both the next 2 systems, Early Friday and Late Saturday.

    Have a look:

    http://imgur.com/a/ozVIg

    To me, this represents a trend to the North with the Euro.

    Let’s see what the 12Z runs shows. There definitely appears to be 2 systems, both
    are possible. The 1st one a bit weaker than the second, but both would lay down
    snow IF they got up here.

        1. Not much at all. Here’s hoping, but with the way this season has gone, I am prepared for the OTS solution.

          Awaiting the 12Z runs.

  7. re: Weather App

    I hope TK doesn’t mind, but I just wanted to add a few things:

    1. I found a few minor problems with it yesterday. There is a minor format issue with
    one of the dials and there were a couple of duplicate links from the menus. ie select
    2 different menu items and getting directed to the same web page. I will get these
    fixed.

    2. This app went through several designs as it was developed. Tk would make a suggestion and I would implement or I would have an idea and run it by TK and he would say sounds great, see if you can do it. Etc etc, until it ended up like it is.
    Does it mean it’s perfect? by no means. Therefore, we are open to suggestions and With Tk’s approval, I’ll add it in.

    3. Hope to make some progress with the Iphone really soon.

    4. Desktop version for Windows is nearly complete.

    Thanks and enjoy.

    1. Awesome and thank you for the updates. I love your #2…..teamwork at its finest.

      I cannot wait to have it on my desktop.

          1. New computer but stayed with 2007. Too many complaints about 2010. I do have the option to upgrade but have not felt the need to rock the boat 🙂

              2. To each his own but I love Windows 10…combines the best of Windows 7 and Windows 8 (and I loved Windows 7). At some point people will need to upgrade to Windows 10 as mainstream support for Windows 7 ended in Dec 2015 (extended and security support will continue for several years).

                1. I’m figuring by the time I need to upgrade, they may have bugs worked out. I like the option of being able to upgrade when I choose.

                1. I don’t care for it either.
                  My wife’s computer is Windows 10 and she has a hell of a time with it. I work with this stuff all day and I don’t care for windows 10. I can deal with it, but I like Windows 7 much better.

  11. I will not consider a model to be showimg consistency until 4 consecutive have given me very similar solutions.

  12. I like the snow blue background color, TK. Has that been there a while? I don’t see BG on my tablet but am back on my computer and love it!

  13. Tk I seem to be posting than it doesn’t show up, not all the time and it may be a mistake on my part .

          1. Merely displaying the model output. 😀

            I don’t believe anything just yet, other than
            a highly likely OTS scenario. 😀

  17. Thanks, TK!

    If we lived in Aroostook County, Maine, we’d be having a bonanza year in terms of snow. For that matter, Quebec City is experiencing snowstorm after snowstorm after snowstorm. The jet stream is perfectly positioned for that part of the world. Alas, we’re 350 miles south of that winter storm action.

    1. This is true. Unfortunately that does not mean it will be correct. 😀

      Now I am waiting on that Euro. Should be interesting.
      Want to see IF it trends even a little bit more to the North.

  20. Rainfall deficits at Logan:

    12/31/16 = -10.72″
    01/01/17 = -0.04″

    Our long term drought is finally over…at least on paper.

  21. Happy New Year everyone! I haven’t posted much lately as I’ve been busy with a basement reno, job hunting, and getting ready for the quickly approaching arrival of my little man. I know I’m a little late to the game, but I wanted to thank TK for this awesome blog and for the work he and everyone else puts in to making this a place to talk weather and to express our inner weather geek 🙂 And a big thanks to JpDave for volunteering his free time to help create the app. Great group of people on here and I hope everyone had great holidays 🙂 Now bring on the snow!!

    1. Happy New Year Ace!! It will certainly be a great year as you welcome your new little guy into the world. So exciting!

  24. If the weekend system does make its way into southern New England I bet there be a sharp cut off in snowfall.

    1. I agree matt. It’s been a while since we’ve had a classic setup where everyone in New England gets a significant snowfall.

  25. The CMCs snowfall map doesn’t even make sense. It shows northern new england getting in on the act apparently from an entirely different system that doesn’t even appears on its own run.

    1. The best I can tell, the NNE snow is From Today/tonight’s system. It will SNOW
      way up North. 😀

    1. Shows boston 0.3 for Friday and 2.9 for the weekend.

      Shows marshfield as 0.6 and 5.5

      Shows Falmouth as 2.0 and 8.0

      Interesting

  28. Have to watch that weekend storm, if only because it looks pretty loaded with moisture as depicted by the models currently. I think we could squeak out a coating to 2″ for eastern MA with the first system, favoring the Cape of course. But either way, that’s a nuisance level event at the worst.

    UKMET is north/west of the ECMWF for the weekend. Given the slight northward shift on the Euro that would sometimes be reason to suspect a larger jump is coming. I’m not sure that will happen though. I’m not seeing the sort of response so far on the ensembles and the other models, especially the US products, that would indicate this to be a big hit. I’m interested in the 12z Euro ensembles though, because there has not been a lot of agreement by any of the ensemble sets so far.

  30. My leaning today is still for a sideswipe on Friday but I’m a little bit more in camp snow for Sunday. I don’t think big, but it may be something that we have to put #’s on. I think the CMC has the right idea but is too fast with the wave. I think the ECMWF is good with the upper pattern. The GFS is figuring it out a little at a time.

      1. Last time I favored wave #2, it was wave #1 that got us. So let’s wait and see……

        1. Just nice to have a chance and this is the EXACT time
          period you talked about quite a while back. 😀

          1. Of Course we have a party to attend on Saturday evening, just about when this thing would get going and it is in Stoughton which of course
            is SOUTH of the city. Could be a fun drive home. 😀

          2. I’ve been concerned about the 5th-10th for about 3 weeks. Narrowed it down to the 6th-8th several days ago which is when I brought it up on the blog. Before that it was “behind the scenes” talk with a couple fellow met’s.

  31. 18Z NAM for Friday just about exactly in the same position as the 12Z NAM.
    No change that I can detect. If there is it is very very small.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2017010318&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=072

    keeps any snow on the far South side of the Cape and then the islands.
    NOTHING up this way, so far anyway.

    With our luck, the Friday wave will get us and the Sat/Sun wave will come up
    over us and RAIN! 😀 😀 😀

    Since the Sat/SUN is more loaded, let’s have Friday miss and Sat/Sun hit.

    2. I feel the closer to or over us friday gives us a better chance of seeing the second storm come closer and more favorable for a meaningful winter storm.

  32. Euro ensembles aren’t especially interesting for the weekend. Mean looks near or a touch southeast of the operational. They’re pretty well clustered though, much better than what we’ve had. Quite a ways to watch that one. Could be our last good watcher through 1/20.

    1. me neither, I also feel that energy Bernie is getting excited about will be to fast ans push the southern energy out to sea.

      1. I didn’t say we wouldn’t get it, just that I don’t expect the
        18Z GFS to trend Northward. Here’s hoping for a surprise. 😀

  35. This is as close as the GFS brings the Friday system. A bit more off shore than
    even the NAM and Euro.

            1. Possibly. I’m not convinced of this yet but I’m leaning slightly in that direction.

  40. GFS is overestimating the strength of that northern stream energy. Jet will buckle and get the weekend storm to at least give us measurable snow.

  42. Believe it or not, that GFS run makes me even more confident that we get a moderate snow event up here.

  43. Ok folks. I’m thinking we may need more hair dryers than just Sue’s and mine. Anyone else on board.

  44. 0.83 inch in ye ole rain gauge so far today. Pouring buckets here. I just put the trash out and got drenched!

  45. It’s Snowing just North of Concord, NH. Another nice pick up for the ski areas.
    Their season is off to a great start. 😀

  46. The cape and south coast may see more Sunday than central Worcester country.
    Whatever it gives us, that’s probably all she wrote for at least 10 days. Seems to be the set up. Shot of cold, well timed low, bit of frozen precip, and back to extended mild and cutters.

      1. Eh, I feel for for you. Kinda the way I feel when we don’t get a 4-5 day 90+ degree get wave on July.

            1. I am out rowing and sending the storm closer 🙂

              I actually think we get a decent hit Saturday night into Sunday.

  47. WxWatcher,

    Are you still in Wrentham or back at school? Was wondering what your rain gauge was showing for today.

  49. I got a new rain gauge for Christmas. It read .81. My older one which I found to be very reliable had .53.

  50. At summer camp we would alternately send unsuspecting cabin mates to the kitchen for a pitcher squeezer, left handed spatula, or a wind shifter. The wind shifter might gut be what we need this round…

  52. I’d pay to see that battle of hair dryers, vacuum cleaners, and rowing played out on a stage… 😛

      1. are you simply reporting logan or are you trying to say my rain gauge is inaccurate? 😀

        fwiw, we almost never get the same precip as logan. very rare occurence.

  54. Will it Snow? or will it Not?
    GFS doesn’t want much to do with it and even the CMC has backed way off.

    Yet the Euro is even more bullish?? Go Figure.

    Euro Snow Map for Saturday ( from boston north hardly any is from fri, but the more south one heads there is some in this total from friday as well)

    http://imgur.com/a/eUWir

    Here is the most bullish for fri,the 4km nam and this is not complete as it wshowed it still snowing at the 60 hour mark.

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2017010406/nam4km_asnow_neus_21.png

    most models have an inch or less for boston. euro has 0.4.

  55. GFS and CMC are showing a norlun trough developing but I think they are off and will trend further towards the Euro on this. I think Euro will trend further north as well as some of the ensembles are further west. Just my opinion.

  56. Short update posted. Will be expanding thoughts on upcoming threats soon. Very busy day today so I’ll be limited but will comment when I can.

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