Sunday Forecast

111 Comments

10:32AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 8-12)
And on we go. The 2 waves of low pressure are now by, with Friday’s relatively mini snow event certainly overtaken by Saturday’s more impressive one, especially if you are located south and southeast of Boston in southeastern MA and in parts of RI, where double-digit snow totals were fairly common. See comments section for more on snowfall amounts. Where do we go from here? Down, then up. At least in terms of temperature. First we have a disturbance and arctic cold front to come through today and this may generate a few snow showers and snow squalls this afternoon and evening. Though I am not expecting them to be widespread, any area that does get one can have briefly heavy snow and very low visibility, and they can quickly coat roads and make them slippery. So if you are traveling this afternoon and early tonight, be on the look-out for this. The temperature then drops way down tonight, with snow cover only aiding the fall. Some interior areas will go sub-zero (F). Monday, recovery will be modest, with many areas struggling to get back to the 20s. The arctic chill will be brief, however, as a warm front approaches Tuesday and high pressure offshore also sends some moisture in from off the Atlantic to the south. This will combine to produce the risk of some light precipitation. Then Wednesday and Thursday, we’ll be in the battle zone between colder air to the north and milder air to the south, with a couple disturbances in the area. It will be hard to time these until we get a little closer, so the forecast below will reflect this in a general sense and will be tweaked as needed.
TODAY: Sunny through midday. Partly cloudy this afternoon with isolated to scattered snow showers by mid afternoon in southern NH and central MA to CT, by late afternoon anywhere. Highs 20-28. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts late in the day.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy early with scattered snow showers and snow squalls, then clearing. Lows -5 to 0 interior valleys, 0-5 most areas, 5-12 coastal and urban areas. Wind NW 5-15 MPH gusting over 20 MPH, diminishing overnight.
MONDAY: Sunny morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 18-25. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Mostly cloudy overnight. Lows 15-22 early then rising overnight. Wind light S.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain/snow showers Cape Cod and RI morning-midday, eastern MA midday-afternoon. Chance of light snow central MA and southern NH afternoon may mix with or turn to rain. A few rain showers southern and eastern MA, CT, and RI mid to late afternoon. Highs 35-43. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows 33-40. Highs 45-53.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows 38-45. Highs 45-53.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 13-17)
A boundary will likely be in the area for much of this period with disturbances moving along it. This is a period of high uncertainty, detail-wise, but for now it appears that it will start out fairly mild with a risk of rain showers and eventually end up colder with a chance of some snow/ice/rain. Not seeing indications of a large storm during this period, but episodes of unsettled weather with the possibility of some significant temperature fluctuations. Will be looking at this period and fine-tuning in future updates.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 18-22)
Indications are for a mild overall regime with occasional unsettled weather taking the form of rain more likely than ice/snow, but again we may be near boundaries fairly frequently so quick changes are possible.

111 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

    1. My forecast ended up being a little too high in areas from Boston northward, but not too bad further northwest where I kept amounts down. The numbers to the southwest of the city came in generally in the predicted range. The forecast of 10-18 inches with isolated heavier verified in southeastern MA.

      Ironically I thought that the hardest forecast to make was southeastern areas because of the uncertainty of ocean-enhancement and synoptic banding. There was high variability possible here. Funny how sometimes you do better in areas that you thought were harder, and not as well in areas that you thought you had a good handle on. There is always at least one surprise…

    2. What do you know, my measurement agrees with the Jamaica Plain observer.
      well if you want to be up of 0.05 inch. Observer 7.3 mine 7.25. 😀 😀 😀

  3. Thank you TK.

    Continuing the precipitation discussion. Re-Post

    70 as the ocean?

    If that is the case, can you please discuss the
    obvious synoptic heavy banding moving SW to NE.

    Is it that those bands erupt when encountering the
    Ocean effect dynamics (all of them, surface conversion, 925 and 850 flow, friction etc etc), but still move with the upper flow?

    Just trying to totally understand. thanks

    2. True as far as what the radar’s movement was showing. …. I’d offer that the intensity of the echos seen on the radar was made by the 850 mb inflow. In other words, if that 850 mb flow was half of what it was, the motion on the radar probably would have looked the same, but the snow intensity would have been so much less.

      This ended up in moderation because sometimes on my phone, I accidentally tab down and a letter ends up to my name.

      1. Ahhhhhh
        Thank you for the clarification. Then we pretty much agree as
        I just fathomed a 75% synoptic 25% OCEAN GUESS BASED
        on what I observed on radar.

        Of course there would be some localized variation on that, but
        I was looking for a generalized percentage and you provided.

        Thanks again.

      2. Keep me away from cooking, I guess. I’ll have the proportion of ingredients added backwards 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

    4. The synoptic banding was high enough that it probably had little or no influence from the ocean. That looked like it was purely from the intensifying low pressure center to me.

      1. Yup, that’s what I thought as well.

        Just trying to stay grounded and make certain I am not straying
        from reality. 😀

  4. Thanks TK !

    Outstanding as always !!

    Had a great time discussing the lead up to this storm with everyone. This is the best place to be for weather !!!

  7. Clean up all done. Very dry powder. Leaf blower and snow blower did the job. My estimate last night of right around 8″ was really close. It wasn’t any more than 8″, and probably more like 7.75″.
    Look forward to the mild up next week.

    1. I have a funny feeling we either get nailed or they miss just to the southwest. No real science behind this particular prediction. 🙂

    1. Shows a pretty nice snow shower/squall coming trough later. Don’t ask me
      HOW that model can place a certain convection snow squall. 😀 😀

      Suffice to say that the HRRR is confirming or looks to confirm TK’s forecast
      for this PM.

      1. Just a simulation. It has to place them somewhere if it is forecasting them to occur. 🙂

        Models are being developed that will eventually time and place thunderstorms fairly accurately, and even forecast which storms are able to produce tornadoes. In theory, this is meant to give up to a few hours of lead time for the most dangerous storms.

        1. We’re slowly advancing the technology.
          Even with what we have, I can’t believe the advancement
          over what we had it place in the 60s when I was in high school and college.

          I was fortunate enough to work with some of the early
          dopplar radars. I was always fascinated (I seem to like this word. Sorry.) During one thunderstorm, I was actually in the trailer operating the doppler. It was
          awesome. With the old displays, there were like isopleths for equal wind direction. If I spotted an
          obvious anomaly, ie rotation, I was to report it.
          I did see one and reported it. There was an investigation the next day, but nothing was observed.
          Oh well, what do you expect from a student rookie. 😀

  11. This afternoon is going to be liking tracking thunderstorms in the summer. Some areas could get a pretty good snow squall other areas nothing.

  12. If no one minds, a quick post on the App.

    I have been asked about a refresh button. I just want to say that yes that can be added. In fact I have added it to the desktop, however, a word of caution.

    The app uses a service call openweathermap. They keep track of all of the weather
    observations and updates. Updates are more frequent at some locations. So,
    hitting a refresh button will only get the latest observation, which would likely be
    the one already on the screen. The app does not have a real time feed to every
    location on the planet.

    When the user selects a city, the program sends a data request to OpenWeatherMap
    that looks like this:

    http://api.openweathermap.org/data/2.5/weather?q=boston&APPID=71da38e718c98db0f72cb3102f67a400&mode=XML

    This is what the program receives back.

    US

    The program parses this information and displays it on the screen.

    For now the refresh is on the desktop.

    For the mobile app, since space is at a premium, my suggestion would be to
    simply enter the city again, if you want the latest. If there is consensus, I can
    see IF a refresh can be squeezed on the screen somewhere.

    Also, one last note: Those that have the app may have already noticed.
    The data comes from OpenWeatherMap and not official NWS observation locations.
    This is how we can obtain data from virtually any city and town in the world. Not just
    the US. SO whatever observation that comes back is from OpenWeatherMap.
    Please just keep that in mind.

    Many thanks.

    1. Thanks JPDave

      Can it be refreshed by also just closing app and then reopening. I suspect it is six of one or half dozen of another. I don’t know how androids work but suspect similar to iPhone. It is easy to close by pushing home button and then reopen by tapping app

      Did that make any sense?

        1. I would say no to refresh on app then. But I am a vote of one, I typically just close our Wunder after I’ve checked it and then go back although it is a bit fluid. For the desktop. I’d leave open so like the idea of a refresh. Again, a vote of one. Either way, I cannot wait to have on my devices. Thank you very much for the time and talent you have devoted to this

    2. We’ll see some advance of mid level clouds as well, ahead of the disturbance at upper levels. They should be on the western horizon by now at least as seen from near Boston.

      1. I can see now. And thank you as I was going to post
        that what I see is not Cumulus. From the far distance they
        are looks like cirrus or alto cumulus or some such goodie. too far
        away to tell for sure.

  15. Just spent some time outside ….

    My goodness, we have a lot of snow.

    Bottom 1/2 to 2/3 of it has more water content, top 1/2 to 1/3 is fluff.

    Neighborhood roads responding nicely to the well done plow job by the town.

  16. Thanks, TK.

    Beautiful day. My part of Boston got about 6 inches. I think that JP, Roslindale, Dorchester, and even Logan did a bit better. And of course the jackpot areas are south and southeast of here.

    The up and down character of this winter is disappointing. I’d strongly prefer consistent cold and snow to what we’re getting. The number of (often cold) rain events this winter is a bummer, especially if you want to enjoy the snow for more than just a day or two. Of course, we can’t do anything about nature’s tendency this winter to ridge. If the pattern would only change in the short term, but that is looking less and less likely. I predict the ridge will go away just in time for spring when we’ll get a negative NAO, blocking, and lots of raw and dismal.

    2. Not that I haven’t said this before……I hear you all rolling your eyes 😉

      Joshua, I think with the seasons shifting that it takes a bit longer for them to settle into their own. And also, there is typically a January thaw. I dont mind the up and down…..reminds me of things to come or things that have been while enjoying things that are……..eeeee heavens that sounds sappy.

    3. This may be the year that we get a mix of “typical” maritime spring and bright/warm summer preview during both April and May.

    1. There is some altostratus west and now increasing fractocumulus clouds (that are lower and fragmented).

  19. NWS regarding snow squalls:

    *** Very cold with localized heavy snow squalls possible mid
    afternoon into early this evening***

    Previous forecast on track and main concern continues to be the
    potential for scattered snow showers and brief localized heavy snow
    squalls. The main time of concern is between 3 and 9 pm. No
    real changes made to the previous discussion below.

    The main feature for today is a potent mid level shortwave and
    attending arctic front which moves into the region this afternoon.
    The morning will start out with sunshine but clouds will quickly
    overspread the region as the column moistens ahead of the
    shortwave. This shortwave is quite robust with 500 mb temps
    decreasing to -40C. Good large scale lift combined with steep
    1000-700 mb lapse rates 8-9C/km, abundant low level moisture and
    decent low level convergence suggests scattered snow showers will
    develop with the risk of isold heavy snow squalls, especially in
    the interior. While the areal coverage of any heavier snow
    squalls may be limited some of the hi-res guidance indicating the
    potential for a quick inch or 2 which would likely be accompanied
    by brief whiteouts. Will issue an SPS to address this concern. It
    will be a cold day with highs only upper teens to lower 20s.

  20. Not looking at snow or precip maps, but I sense in looking just at the surface maps on the 12z op runs the continuing early signs of a weak undercutting system with cold high pressure to the north sometime next weekend.

    1. Yup, the set up is there. Euro shows it as well.
      There may be a transition zone of sleet and/or freezing rain somewhere
      in between wherever the rain and snow sets up. Impossible to know where
      that will be at this time. 😀

          1. Our party was rescheduled to next Saturday.
            Watch, we’ll have the Mother of all overrunning events and we’ll get a foot of snow. 😀

            2. 🙂

              Then, we’ll hope the snow comes Sunday. With the Pats playing Houston Saturday evening (I don’t think Miami rally’s), I’d rather have decent weather and no precip. I think the Pats are superior to the Texans, but find poor weather is a talent disparity equalizer.

  22. I’m wondering if the activity out by Albany isn’t residual lake effect snow and our
    activity will be erupting farther East? Don’t know.

        1. I think they were fine to warn for it the way they did. CAPE is good. Disturbance coming over the top is supportive. A couple squalls may be intense.

          1. I assumed that if their info was correct, then
            the special statement was fine. Thanks for
            the confirmation.

    1. Unless you check the Hide Clutter button below the radar. 🙂

      Never really knew what that meant anyway.

      1. LOL.

        I just tried that and poof went the echoes.

        I guess the radar site doesn’t think much of them.

        They’re dying anyway. So there ya go.

  25. Seems to me that the snow showers/squalls are DRYING UP or otherwise
    decreasing in intensity and areal coverage.

  27. Hey guys , long day / night in the city got home after 3 this morning . I was greeted by about 17 inches of snow . Have not heard what Boston came in at but I’d say maybe six in the medical area . We thought it was done like 3 times but it finally shut down for good around midnight .

  28. I have a gut feeling that the southeast ridge we will be strong through this upcoming spring and summer and the rest of this winter. We will probably get a couple more decent size snow storms then rinse and repeat with this current pattern.

  29. spring i feel at the moment will start wet and cool.. then warm and dry then cool and wet leading into first part of summer

  30. Should be one more batch of snow showers coming out of NY State probably destined for southern MA, CT, and possibly RI, next 2 to 3 hours or so.

    1. I don’t want the pats to play Green Bay if they make it to the SB.
      Green Bay could beat them. They look awesome and Rogers has never
      been better.

    1. Yup, I couldn’t believe some of the throws he made. Our defense is reasonable, but I don’t know if they could contain Rogers. Not sure who Greenbay has
      to play next, but I am sure they could be whoever it is. The only team that
      could “possibly” beat GB is Seattle. Who knows.

      If I had to wager a bet, I’d Say GB is headed to the SB.

      1. The Pats are on a whole different level. It’s hard even watching other games and seeing how far ahead we are. Worry not…

      1. Hahaha. I know what they are. I am just never convinced we do as well after a week off. And yes I know the record may show otherwise…..see, I Know that too 🙂 🙂 🙂 😉

  41. My SB bracket is intact after week 1.

    I have the Patriots and Falcons in the superbowl with us getting one for the thumb.

  43. Tom I was really rooting for the Lions. I did not want to see either the Giants or Packers. I know we beat the Packers in October in Green Bay but this is a different packers team.
    Odell Beckham Jr. for Giants sore loser punches a whole in the wall. I am glad he is not on my team. He has a lot of talent but he is a big pain.

  44. I totally agree with you Matt. Dez has had moments where he has gotten hot on the sidelines but not to the level of Odell Beckham Jr. This guy has anger management problems kicking a net this season on sideline and the latest punching a hole in the wall after he gave his postgame news conference. If this guy was not talented he would be long gone.

Comments are closed.