Monday Forecast

154 Comments

1:19AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 9-13)
Very cold, dry weather starts the week today but we quickly transition out of it during Tuesday as milder air arrives both surface and aloft with lots of clouds and a threat of some light precipitation. A cold front will push through early Wednesday but the air will not get all that cold behind it. In fact it will stay quite mild through Thursday. A stronger cold front is due to arrive sometime on Friday, based on current timing.
TODAY: Sunny morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 18-25. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Mostly cloudy overnight. Lows near 0 coldest spots to near 20 Cape Cod. Wind light S.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain/snow showers Cape Cod and RI morning-midday, eastern MA midday-afternoon. Chance of light snow central MA and southern NH afternoon may mix with or turn to rain. A few rain showers southern and eastern MA, CT, and RI mid to late afternoon. Highs 38-45. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers in the morning. Lows 35-43. Highs 45-53.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers late in the day. Lows 38-45. Highs 45-53.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers in the morning. Lows 38-45. Highs 45-53.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 14-18)
High pressure north of the region will bring fair and colder weather Saturday. The middle of the period may see a couple low pressure areas impact the region. Neither look like big storms but both may include at least some frozen precipitation. Dry weather should end the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 19-23)
Pattern continues to look fairly mild compared to normal with a few mainly minor storm events, rain favored over ice/snow.

154 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

    1. I was a little less bold on the temp forecasts later in the week so I played it the same across the 3 day period of “uncertainty”, for now…

  2. Thanks, TK…
    Good morning, everyone!

    -3.3 degrees here in Taunton at 0600.

    Stay safe in the morning commute!
    Enjoy the winter day!!!

  3. Just checked…
    It’s -7 (air) and (-13) DP at the East Taunton airport as of 4:52 am.

  4. 9 below at East Taunton International as of 5:52. Very low area down there. Lots of cranberry bogs.

  9. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Heat wave at my house, it got down to 7.

    Anyone know how much snow was dropped by that squall last evening?
    On radar, it looked like a really good one.

    Ok, cold today, cold over the weekend. Warm in between and WARM thereafter.

    Aside from some “possible” shananegans this weekend, all I see is cutter after cutter after cutter with no hope at all.

    Euro shows Snow Saturday evening into Sunday morning (moderate event). CMC has a touch of snow, while the GFS does not have it at all. I guess it is a tad too early
    to know what’s up with that.

    1. We got a solid coating here but not really measurable. They are salting the roads this morning.

      I love the squeak of tires on snowy roads.

    1. Removing snow up there? Seems odd with only a 7 inch snowfall.
      Must be some other reason? Clearing paths to the HVAC systems etc.

      2. All storms . Decking walkways to get to units Need to be cleared for emergency access and repair / pm work

  12. Thanks TK !

    I’m looking forward to the warmup and when I can enjoy that for a few days, then I’ll be ready for additional cold and snow. 🙂 🙂

    That’s what made 2 February’s ago so challenging, there wasn’t even a one day break.

  13. Sak, TK, my parents are heading out to phenix Arizona Wednesday….. then going to the Grand Canon. Do you think they could be affected by those storms out there coming in from the Pacific?

    1. Not sure I can take the continuing BARRAGE of CUTTERS and/or INSIDE RUNNERS. If this is the case, BRING ON SPRING!!!!!

      This “possible” over running event happens briefly on this run, get suppressed
      South only to resolve into a Potent Lakes Cutter. Gimmie a break.

      It’s a JOKE.

      yes, it is one run, but it SUCKS. We’ll see what the Euro shows a little later.

  17. Winter is definitely not over, I see early signs that February could be quite interesting. However, if you’re a fan of winter weather, you might want to avoid the models next 15 days. They will not make you happy. I’m wondering just how far up this month will rank in terms of warmest January’s on record. Shades of last year on the way for sure, albeit with much different large scale drivers.

      1. I doubt it. Euro had it for 2 runs. We’ll know within 1/2 hour
        IF it is still there. Based on GFS and CMC, I’d guess it will be gone.

        1. Well I could use the 3 day break . I have side work Saturday that was planned for this past weekend than I’m free .

          1. Euro still shows 2 inches of snow for Boston
            Overnight Saturday into Sunday AM.

            DOWN from last night’s run.

              1. It’s only one model and it has backed off from yesterday’s 2 runs.

                We shall see. Will have to monitor.

                We have a party Saturday night, so I am with you. Let’s keep it away. 😀

                1. NWS discussion re: Weekend

                  Big temp change as arctic front drives south of New England Fri/Fri
                  night. Thus a return to at least more seasonably cold weather. All
                  guid including deterministic and ensembles indicate a frontal wave
                  developing on the offshore front and tracking south of New England
                  sometime next weekend. Thus risk for a period of wintry weather next
                  weekend pending exact track of wave and depth of cold air over New
                  England.

  19. Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice · Jan 8

    Ok everyone… Winter is NOT over yet. Yes, Jan looks like it will be a warmer than average month but already seeing some good signs for Feb

  20. Met winter is half over on Saturday.
    3 1/2 weeks and celestial winter is half over.
    Solar winter end Feb 5th

    Keep the faith Spring and Summer folks, it will come.

    1. it has not been a “bad summer for you” Let winter happen through March then skip spring and go to summer weather 😉

  21. Good gracious …

    I just looked at the 850 mb temp projections at hr 240 on the EURO. Everyone is talking about where the cold air disappears to in the coming few weeks ?

    How about the eastern third of Asia ? There are below 0C 850 mb temps projected south of 30N latitude !!!!!!! … so for example, this would be like projecting that kind of chill for areas south of northern Florida, south of New Orleans, Houston, etc …..

    Good luck to them !!

      1. I wish. Just the roof framing popping (constricting) like they did a few years ago when we had that extremely cold stretch. Seems now anytime the temp gets into the single digits it happens.

        1. Ahh, I didn’t understand what you meant.

          My house is 175 years old, so it stopped doing that
          Loooong ago. 😀

  23. Guy at work has a pipe burst at home and had to leave. Guess it’s not good…lost whole ceilings/floors.

    1. WOW! It was cold, but not that cold. I wonder what changed in that
      guy’s house? Heat accidentally turned off in a zone? A faulty valve?
      Something happened. Too bad. That sounds like a mess.
      Hope things work out for him.

      1. Yeah not sure yet. He replaced the pipe that actually burst but there is no flow so there is another frozen section(s) somewhere. I didn’t think it was that cold either.

        1. If there was a problem, then it was cold enough.
          I am just saying if everything was functioning normally, NOT cold enough to do this, else it would have happened
          long ago. 😀

          good luck to that guy and his family.

          1. Well I am guessing mold will be less an issue given the time of year, but having to rip down ceilings and floors sucks. It’s one of my fears when going on vacation…that and a oil tank leak.

    2. Our last house was a slab ranch. Pipes were in attic. Trust me, it was cold enough last night for pipes to burst if his are in attic. Last cold snap there were multiple calls for frozen pipes in Wellesley. I’m thinking not many slab ranches there :). I dropped my faucets last night.

      2. My point was it has been COLDER than this before, so why no problem then? That is all I am saying. Thus I am suggesting
        that there was an undetected issue that combined with this
        cold was enough to cause the burst.

        1. understood 🙂 Just having heat set to low if heat pipe or water not moving if water pipe would do the trick.

          1. Absolutley. And that would be one way
            to represent an issue that would cause a pipe
            to burst with today’s temperatures as opposed
            to a previously colder temperature. I am sure there are others. A faulty thermostat, problems with a zone? all sorts of things. Something
            was different. Maybe they dripped faucets
            in the colder times and forgot this time?
            who knows.

  24. Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi · 8h8 hours ago

    Major strat warm ]nw NAMER week 2 says US winter far far from over. Classic old fashioned winter coast to coast, complete with Jan thaw

    1. I think he went for that sometime in early December for late December and January…

      The difference this time is he may be right, or at least partially so.

  25. Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi · 3h3 hours ago

    GFS ensembles singing same tune,but not as fast as Canadian.Reversal to eastern gets underway later in month Pattern not unlike
    jan-feb 1993

    1. What the hell does he mean by “Reversal to Eastern”????????

      You mean the Mean Trough comes up the East coast?

      I wish they would say what they mean.

    2. I looked up Jan – Feb 1993 for Logan on Taunton NWS climate data.

      January 93 : temp : +3.4F, snowfall : 12.9″

      February 93 : temp : -4.6F, snowfall : 19.6″

    3. seriously stop the bashing of others, or I’m gonna rip apart everything you say… Find every time your wrong. No one is perfect. He is a scientist, Scientists form a series of outcomes. If one is wrong, he states it. Then explains why and forms another altering one variable.
      This is the problem now a days people like you feel your entitled to question science and those who actually done studies.. How about you go out there and replicate these studies yourself before you say its wrong and start bashing people. Take part in the scientific method since you say these people are so wrong.

      1. “or I’m gonna rip apart everything you say”

        Isn’t my blog but sounds like a threat to me. Can’t always get what you want millenial.

    3. Was out in Saratoga NY at the annual Lyndon State College weather conference. The guest speaker was Jim Cantore, a graduate of LSC.

      It was all snow out there, didn’t change to rain or sleet because we were on the western side. Then I remember getting back to Lowell to about 18″ of snow topped with a layer of crust.

      1. I was in high school at that time still living up in Amsterdam, NY. We received 25″ of snow and had some drifting several feet deep. The storm hit on a Saturday and I did not go back to school until Wednesday. An amazing storm.

        I also remember watching the TWC and local news stations who began talking about the storm 7 days in advance. There was amazing model agreement with this storm well in advance which is saying something given the model guidance wasn’t nearly as good back then.

  28. We have had more than a few winters that did not produce much snow in the first half. Second half produced some record breakers. 69,78,2015 to name a few. Lots of time left and they can sneak up on you when you’re not looking.

  29. BAMWX ‏@bamwxcom · 9h9 hours ago
    Eastern hemisphere signals of a pattern change ~25th-30th of Jan & into Feb. Evolution to a +PNA? Colder east. #BSR http://Bamwx.com

    Per Michael Clark, pattern change back to cold/snow in the eastern two thirds of the US after about Jan 25 when +PNA sets up for the month of February. Perhaps what Bastardi was trying to allude to above.

  30. We’ll see. The PNA has been positive before and nothing’s panned out. IMO, watch the EPO. Pacific has been the key. That EPO stays positive, we ain’t getting much. MJO has been non existent for months. Finally starting to see a increase there, but it’s in the wrong phase. Need some amplitude in 7/8 with a negative EPO. Teles this winter haven’t been favorable for much sustained winter wether.

    1. would be helpful if we could get some good placement of high pressures to the north and a bermuda high over bermuda funneling the storms up the coast;)

  31. I always enjoy when a change in sensible weather is prognosticated the prophets of winter get busy predicting the time and date as to when the pattern will change to one they prefer…Do they do this as the pattern evolves into a stormier / colder one? No, they find outlier reasons why to extend the duration of their preferred pattern beyond what would be reasonable.

      1. THEN STOP WISHING FOR DARN SPRING……… spring does not happen till last week of march 😉 so please hold the crap season called spring till then.

        1. Well there are plenty of people on here who rush and beg for snow about halfway into Fall…soooo…

          1. How true. I am one of them.
            But, I have no problem with someone wishing for Spring or liking hot weather. We are all different and it is wonderful.

        3. Matt your way of dealing with people on here is not the very best . Time to respect people’s thoughts here . And If you don’t like it than please not respond . We don’t want or need drama here.

          1. I do apologize for what I said. I shouldn’t have. But…you just can’t keep treating people like garbage that don’t agree with you or have different options than you.

  32. Normal snowfall at Logan to date = 14.1″
    Current snowfall at Logan to date = 14.2″

    +0.1″ 🙂

  33. If you recall a week or so ago we discussed the potential for a shift to slightly longer lasting cold stretches as early as the end of January or more likely February.

    I would hold short of saying a completely “classic winter” pattern, though I’m not really sure what that is supposed to mean.

    Yes we will probably end up with several stretches of cold and several snow potentials. Though one would expect that in February anyway. 🙂

    2. February is usually the snowier of the months anyways with January being the coldest usually. march is a swing month 😉

      1. Actually, depending on which 30 year average is used, Jand are is boston’s
        Snowiest month. Latest, I believe (at least according tobthe,website I used) Jan. 12.9, Feb. 1p.9

    3. ahhhhhh…the voice of reason. Thanks TK.

      And can you imagine. We might have several stretches of cold as well as several snow potentials. With winter only 19 days old no less 🙂

  34. So these dudes just figured out there is a pattern change potential end of January / February? Late to the party… 😛

    And yes I’m kidding.

    I’m more concerned with getting the details and timing right for the next 5 days.

  35. From Dr. Cohen today. Now there is much confidence there, eh?

    If a robust SSW does occur, that could potentially force a more persistent cold across the NH, especially North America where the cold has been more transitory than Eurasia. If no SSW occurs, then I would expect the weather to continue to be sensitive to variations in the atmospheric circulation especially along the eastern edges of the ocean basins. One last alternative is if the tropospheric and stratospheric PVs couple with both in a strong phase then mild weather could become more persistent across the hemisphere.

    If this that or else this unless this then that blah blah blah…. Gotta love it.

      1. Sorry, but I sick of his waffling back and forth. Sure, I know it is supposed to be Scientific and perhaps I expect more out of it
        than is intended. For me, I would much prefer him to say this is what I think is going to happen and why. Then at the end, he
        could introduce factors that could change what he is predicting.

        I guess I just don’t like his style.

        1. People need to realize that its in what I like to say a trial phrase He is also not doing to much back and forth. There will be some back and forth due to it being tried. People need to realize this. I do understand some might not like his style.

        1. and i have the right to disagree with it ssk i am ok with dave dislike of this style, the others questioning him are degrading a goo scientist..

          1. No we’re not. I or anyone else that critisize him doesn’t get personnel. If you want to be a scientist, you are going to have to get used to having your ideas challenged. It’s not degrading him. Understand? You have a huge problem when somebody disagrees with you. If you can’t get that under control, you are going to have a difficult road.

  36. Thanks, TK.

    And thanks, Vicki, for reminding us all to count our blessings, snow or no snow.

    JP Dave, I have some trouble reading Dr. Cohen’s prognostications. … On the one hand this, on the other hand that. …They sound too academic to me. And, I’m an academic!

    Matt, I do understand your point, but I think Dr. Cohen should make it clear which side he’s leaning towards.

    I look forward to a winter rebound by the end of next week, at least that’s what seems to be in store.

    2. I agree he should make it more clear for the general public.
      He is very academic.
      He is writing as if he is writing to the scientific community not the general public. He could write two versions and keep the more scientific one under protection like most research scientists do. Many of the articles that you find that are free are based on original research.

  37. It does make sense that January is the snowiest month given that it is the coldest month on average (36F). By the end of February I believe the average temperature rises to 42F.

  38. According to Pete, those systems moving into California is the reason for our pattern change to mild.

        1. EPO. TK can chime in on it, but to me, that’s the key teleconnector right now. And has been for awhile. You notice the AO never dropped. The GEFS had the AO -5 SD below zero. Didn’t happen.
          Only thing that has me bugged in the EPO and the PNA should track together somewhat, but it hasn’t. They share some of the same domain space.

  39. The cloudiness of earlier today has temporarily moved out and with the deep snow cover and light winds, SE Mass temps have plunged this evening. Lots of single digits …. A low lying, thick kind of cold.

      1. Brrrrr … Sounds in line with Marshfield at 14F

        At 8pm, Taunton was 2F, Plymouth was 6F, New Bedford was 7F and Norwood was 5F. Curious to see if anyone has gone below 0F on the 9pm obs.

    1. I meant to add there plenty of cold, just no way to get it in here with any consistency. As Tom pointed out, Asia had the cold. I think where Judah misses the boat is that he focuses too much on the AO and forgets about the other teles than are important to move the cold south of ~50 N. Plus that SE ridge that just won’t let a coastal really get in here either.

        1. to far out probably to really think on that, but at the moment looks to me suppressed to the south

    1. Wow !! Widespread radiational cooling.

      Ironically, many spots in northwestern and western New England, which are further away from the retreating high, have a S and SW wind are are generally holding in the teens, though I’m sure some sheltered valleys are much colder.

    3. thats impressive. Its 11 degrees here in Billerica. I bet we get to low single digits this evening around my area.

      1. Hehe…I actually had the heat on several times today. Up until now, other than the last cold stretch, I might have had it on a total,of 30 min. But they run it more upstairs and I think some may leak out through my vents.

  44. 1. Sorry if people feel I am disrespecting their beliefs.
    2. time to respect peoples thoughts, I am respectful but just like you disagreeing with mine, I have a right to proove why mine is right just like you. You comment on my stuff when you do not agree with it and get nasty yourself. If you do not want people to respond to it you should not post it in the first place.

    3 I do not like questioning peoples work if I do not put in the time and effort to repeat it myself or I see hard evidence from other sources (primary sources) that disproves it. I would hope others would give scientists the same courtesy. It really bugs me when people can say not that is not correct and do not show why they believe so with actual data/primary sources.
    4. It is unfortunate that my field of all things have gotten so political. I wish it was like the other sciences like physics, chemistry and Biology in which the scientific community questions each other and the public has the decency to respect the findings unless there is a large discrepancy….
    5 I am kind of confused though I have not been nasty in any way but people have been to me You say to respect other views, how about respect mine as well? Receive what you give? Don’t get made if you receive what you give.
    I been told to Kiss off and a few other things. Millenial comments come on. No group is perfect. I can say alot about previous age groups if you want to start this up again….
    Not really nice if you ask me….

    6 You are saying to respect yours then respect mine and I will return the favor. Joshua, I totally agree with you This is my response

    matt souza says:
    January 9, 2017 at 9:33 PM
    I agree he should make it more clear for the general public.
    He is very academic.
    He is writing as if he is writing to the scientific community not the general public. He could write two versions and keep the more scientific one under protection like most research scientists do. Many of the articles that you find that are free are based on original research.
    Reply

    and JPDave no disrespect meant towards you. please look at what I said to Joshua.

    1. also someone really wise mentioned to me and I totally agree with the person.
      “when you respectfully critique a scientist or anyone you do it talking to them and not about them.”

      1. Very nice comment, Matt. You are correct that respect has many layers. I think we all have trouble when our views are challenged. And we can all have trouble verbalizing that. In this blog alone tonight we have seen how it is not limited to one generation or one political leaning. The part that is the most difficult for everyone is your last comment…….for all of us which includes me.

        Good lesson to learn.

Comments are closed.