Tuesday Forecast

116 Comments

1:57AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 10-14)
Atlantic moisture sneaks in ahead of a warm front today and may bring a few snow/rain showers to eastern MA ahead of the warm front’s precipitation, which will arrive late day and evening probably as rain to the southeast of Boston, a mix to rain in Boston to Providence area, and snow to brief freezing rain to rain to the northwest. After that moves out late evening another ribbon of rain showers will quickly cross the region from west to east along a cold front with a Pacific air mass behind it, so much of the daytime Wednesday will end up dry and fairly mild. Another warm front will pass Thursday morning with a risk of a bit of rain. A stronger cold front will approach late Thursday but not really pass through the region until early Friday. This will allow Thursday and early Friday to continue mild before colder air finally arrives. High pressure from the north will bring dry and colder weather Saturday but by evening or night a disturbance from the west may bring some light snow to parts of the region.
TODAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy morning with a few rain/snow showers developing eastern MA from south to north. Mainly cloudy afternoon with a few rain/snow showers possible then a chance of snow/mix southwestern NH and central MA late day. Highs 33-42 from northwest to southeast.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Mix to brief freezing rain to rain central MA and southwestern NH, mix to rain Boston/Providence corridor, rain elsewhere, ending west to east late evening then frequent rain showers returning west to east overnight. Lows 31-40 early then rising slowly.
WEDNESDAY: Rain showers lingering eastern MA early otherwise partly sunny. Highs 47-54. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain overnight. Lows 38-45. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain early. Chance of rain showers northwestern areas late. Highs 50-58. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy morning with a chance of rain showers. Partly cloudy afternoon. Becoming windy. Lows 42-50. Highs 48-55 morning then turning colder afternoon.
SATURDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Chance of light snow favoring southern areas at night. Lows 18-25. Highs 30-38.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 15-19)
Additional disturbances January 16-18 may produce some periods of precipitation, with type depending on placement of disturbances and areas of high pressure to the north. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 20-24)
Continued mild pattern, passing disturbances likely produce rain rather than ice/snow.

116 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  4. I am somewhat disturbed at some comments concerning my thoughts about
    Dr. Cohen’s blog. I have been thinking about this since last evening. I absolutely unequivocally stand by what I said and feel strongly that I have the right to state those opinions whether in-person or not. It was not a character assault, simply a comment about style and content. I love Dr. Cohen’s blog, just not his recent indecisiveness.

    To that end, I am currently composing an email to Dr. Cohen. I’ll share the email and Dr. Cohen’s response, should I receive one. I won’t send it until I am satisfied with the contents.

    3. Jp did you see my comment last night?? I apologized to you and explain what pisses me off with some people on this blog. I should have read your comment a bit more closely. Please look at the last comment on the last blog.

      1. Matt, I just wanted to offer you a word of support.

        I am glad the science field has up and coming people like yourself to continue to improve science and further it’s understanding of everything around us. ………. Yes, we all have to continually improve at give and take with others, especially when disagreement enters into the dialogue.

        So, keep posting that scientific knowledge !! I think it adds yet another dimension to the discussion here.

  5. Thanks TK !

    Tomorrow morning would be a great time to have one of those 24 hr temperature change maps, especially focused on SE Mass. There’s potential for 35F to 45F differences.

  6. If people don’t like what Someone says here leave it be . We don’t need drama here period !!!!!!!

    1. I think sometimes disagreement is a good thing. I just think it has to pass one test which is …….. it cant be personal.

      Accepted and used correctly, disagreement (constructive criticism, whatever one wants to call it) can actually help take a person’s craft to a higher level. I’m not sure having 100% agreement on everything makes us achieve to our highest abilities.

      1. Nicely worded Tom . How we looking for Saturday I am in panic mode . No call in as its patriots Saturday and long weekend.

  7. Old salty….kudos. Your view of Dr Cohen’s blog was not unfair. I believe I had said previously that I was confused by his back and forth. I admire you for taking it to him. I also was happy to see Matt apologize to you.

    I also have been thinking about it all night. I disagree, John, that we cannot have discussion here. I absolutely agree with Tom that it cannot be personal.

        1. Let’s agree to leave it here because actually it has nothing to do with either of us . Have a good day .

  8. Thanks TK. I think we all need to agree to disagree at times and turn the page and don’t make it personal. That’s what makes a blog. Different ideas.

  9. I have, what I am afraid, is a very stupid question but…. when I look at weather.com, it says that the low for today is 36F. Right now, it is only 14, so how can the low be 36? It had this yesterday as well (or something similar, not sure of the exact number). That implies to me that it shouldn’t have gone below freezing, but it was never above freezing. I’m a teacher, and little children are asking and I can’t find an answer.

    1. Don’t go to Weather.com. 😀

      Seriously though, not sure what is up with that. Clearly it is incorrect.
      Does it mean the low overnight, meaning tonight and not this past morning?

      I just took a look for Boston:

      ON, MA (02119)
      as of 8:25 am EST
      19°
      MOSTLY CLOUDY
      feels like 12°
      H 37° / L 36°
      UV Index 0 of 10

      That is NUTS!!! Whoever prepared the graphic screwed up in my opinion.

      I tried other cities. It was done for those as well. Here is NYC

      NEW YORK, NY
      as of 8:36 am EST
      25°
      MOSTLY CLOUDY
      feels like 19°
      H 41° / L 39°
      UV Index 0 of 10

      let me look at one more. Philadelphia

      PHILADELPHIA, PA
      as of 8:27 am EST
      24°
      MOSTLY CLOUDY
      feels like 19°
      H 40° / L 36°
      UV Index 0 of 10

      Since it is across the board, it is NOT a mistake.

      That low is for OVERNIGHT tonight and Not this past morning.
      The low for today (in most instances) has alredy occurred. Clearly
      for tonight.

      1. thanks! I know that weather.com is not the best place for information but it is usually good enough for a quick little graphing activity that I do with the kids (compare/contrast temperature in Milton, MA with Milton, SD)

          1. Thank you! That looks great! It also seems to do a nice job for Kalamazoo, which is where my daughter is. They get a lot of those snow bands, lake effect, I guess–I liked how I could see them on the radar. It’s snowing there right now–and I assure you that she is not pleased.

    2. There are no stupid questions here….and it is always nice to see you and hear about how you apply weather to your teaching

      1. Thanks Vicki. I’m always lurking around in the background, reading what everyone writes. It’s interesting!

  10. Thank you all for the kind words. I started the email this morning, but had to get
    ready and come into the office. I want the wording just right, as I do want a response.

    re: weather

    Perhaps I am off my rocker, BUT ALL of the facuckta cutters from yesterday appear
    to be gone from the 6Z GFS run. Other than the next couple of days, it seems that
    things get suppressed Southward, keeping away the cutters and having systems
    mainly slide underneath us, sometimes fringing us with a little snow. Am I missing something? Was the 6Z run just an utter failure? What’s up with that?

    However, the 0Z Euro appears to still show the cutters? An Anomaly? I dunno.

  11. Hmmmm….didn’t have a chance to read much yesterday and am finally catching up. Can’t deny that I am bit disappointed in some of the comments from yesterday and today. TK has created such a great place for us to all share thoughts and opinions so I sure hope it continues without the name calling and bitterness.

  12. I would like to say as most know here I’m a big fan of Judah and in my opinion he is usually spot on . Wonder why he’s back and forth . We have not chatted in awhile maybe I’ll shoot him an email myself .

    1. It may very well be the conditions that are causing him to waiver.
      Not sure. He does an excellent job, but I think he does himself
      a disservice with the current indecisiveness, that is all.

  13. Thanks, TK.

    The Scandinavian High is about to settle in this week for a while over Northern Europe. Unlike Highs that traverse North America, the Scandinavian High can stay put for quite a while. Does not happen often, and certainly not every year, but when it does it gets very cold in Northwestern Europe and the pattern doesn’t budge, sometimes for several weeks. You know my `theory’ – when it’s cold and dry in Northwestern Europe during the winter it’s usually on the mild side on the Eastern Seaboard, with frequent rain chances. Not a good sign for winter lovers here, at least not in the short term (coming two weeks, say).

  14. Looking at the Nam this morning it did not show any of the snow that is showing in the PA region this morning. Not sure if it means anything for us, but it’s odd. The HRR is the only short term model that shows anything in that area, but very little

    1. To add to your comment …. Until the south surface wind freshens, the combination of last night’s excellent radiational cooling, all the snow cover and cloud cover this morning, probably have temps currently running several degrees below projections.

      Depending on how quickly that southerly sfc flow arrives, wouldn’t surprise me to see winter weather advisories hosted inland (not sure how far inland) for a period of light snow ending as freezing rain (because of the cold surfaces). Then tonight, temps will continue to rise instead of fall, so as time goes on overnight, should be less of an issue.

      1. Conditionally true, however, I would caution that the Southerly
        flow will almost immediately change any snow over to rain, most especially to the South and all the way up to Boston along the
        coastal plain. It may take longer well inland.

          1. Hope we see some snow.
            Seriously, I have my doubts about that.

            Worcester and in the high ground to the North
            of Worcester may very well experience what
            you describe. But I honestly think that boston
            will miss out, save for a “possible” very brief
            period of wet light snow or mix.

            1. I do too ! As it always is in this type of scenario, it’s a race btwn the precip and the arrival of milder air.

              To pinpoint areas that may be of concern for a while later on …… the rte 2 area, the valley’s of the CT River, parts of the Merrimack valley and points north.

              Guess we’ll have to watch those surface temps during the mid and late afternoon.

  15. This was my post from late last night..
    matt souza says:
    January 9, 2017 at 10:16 PM
    1. Sorry if people feel I am disrespecting their beliefs.
    2. time to respect people’s thoughts, I am respectful but just like you disagreeing with mine, I have a right to prove why mine is right just like you. You comment on my stuff when you do not agree with it and get nasty yourself. If you do not want people to respond to it you should not post it in the first place.

    3 I do not like questioning peoples work if I do not put in the time and effort to repeat it myself or I see hard evidence from other sources (primary sources) that disproves it. I would hope others would give scientists the same courtesy. It really bugs me when people can say that it is not correct and do not show why they believe so with actual data/primary sources.
    4. It is unfortunate that my field of all things have gotten so political. I wish it was like the other sciences like physics, chemistry and Biology in which the scientific community questions each other and the public has the decency to respect the findings unless there is a large discrepancy….
    5 I am kind of confused though I have not been nasty in any way but people have been to me You say to respect other views, how about respect mine as well? Receive what you give? Don’t get made if you receive what you give.
    I been told to Kiss off and a few other things. Millenial comments come on. No group is perfect. I can say alot about previous age groups if you want to start this up again….
    Not really nice if you ask me….

    6 You are saying to respect yours then respect mine and I will return the favor. Joshua, I totally agree with you This is my response

    matt souza says:
    January 9, 2017 at 9:33 PM
    I agree he should make it more clear for the general public.
    He is very academic.
    He is writing as if he is writing to the scientific community not the general public. He could write two versions and keep the more scientific one under protection like most research scientists do. Many of the articles that you find that are free are based on original research.
    Reply

    and JPDave no disrespect meant towards you. please look at what I said to Joshua.
    Reply
    matt souza says:
    January 9, 2017 at 10:20 PM
    also someone really wise mentioned to me and I totally agree with the person.
    “when you respectfully critique a scientist or anyone you do it talking to them and not about them.”
    Reply

      1. Matt,

        I don’t think he has to post 2 versions.

        He may toss my email in the trash, but what I will attempt to
        do (if I can get it worded correctly) is to politely suggest
        that he go ahead and detail what he thinks will happen and detail ALL of the reasons why. At the end of that discussion OR
        at the end of the blog, have another discussion area and call it
        caveats or conflicting concerns or opposing parameters or
        whatever he wants to call it, but a discussion about what
        “could” interfere with what he predicts or contradicts his prediction.

        In that manner, he would avoid the perception (at least to us
        non-academics) of waffling on the prediction. I feel that is
        all that is lacking from his outstanding blog. I don’t care if he ends up being correct or not, but make a choice.

        He’ll probably blow me off as an uniformed fool, but we shall see. 😀

        1. If you are talking about Judah he will respond to you. He actually was a lurker on here a couple yrs back .

        1. Matt,
          In not going to engage you anymore. You and I obviously agree on very little. If you don’t like my take on things, just ignore it. I should know better. I’m a 50 plus year old man. You’re an idealistic college kid who has a lot of living to do and a lot to learn about science and getting along with those whom you don’t agree with. As a middle age adult, I should be able to over look a bit of immaturity that hopefully will get better with time. I’ll leave you with my hope that you will start to look at other ideas. Even if you don’t agree with them, respect for the other person is key. Your view of an “attack” is very different than mine and I would guess that your view of constructive criticism vs an attack is different as well.

          1. Its a blog, people will disagree on things. You generally send insults in your arguments like you have done here. I commented on something that did not involve you and you came after me. Most of the time, I make a comment that is my own or on someone elses comment, you atack my argument (that is not nasty/mean) or a post I make (you end up getting nasty) You can comment and disagree with me all you want, Could care less, Just do not become insulting like you and weatherwiz have been.

          2. As a 67 year old person My best piece of advice is to make very certain you are not doing what you accuse another of.

  16. Should there be concerns even where it starts as rain that the cold temperatures of the past few days will allow icing on the pavement for a while ??

  19. Matt, On the map you sent with snow totals in California, I scrolled over the map and saw that in a few spots they’ll be getting over 135 inches of snow. I think that the mountains of Yosemite may be one area that gets a lot. Yosemite has had so little snow in recent years, so having abundant snowfall will help fill up the surrounding reservoirs.

    JP Dave, Yes a Quebecois High would be good, but they tend not to be stationary. I think that when we get into a blocking pattern, the Greenlandic High comes into play. And it does stay in place for long stretches of time, I believe. There are of course many stationary highs around the globe, including the famous one in or near Mongolia. That thing never moves, or so it seems.

    Blackstone, I agree with you that we should respect each others’ viewpoints as much as we can. But, please refrain from calling out Matt on his idealism or suggesting he’s immature. I think you would agree that the world would be a very boring place without idealists and people who criticize the established order (on issues such as climate change) for complacency.

  20. Beyond the potential for brief mixed precipitation this evening, there could be a forecast headache overnight with regards to strong wind potential. Strong low level jet overhead tonight. We should see a fairly robust line of showers and downpours move through late tonight which may act to bring some of those winds down. NWS had mentioned potentially adding a wind advisory for parts of the area, we’ll see if they do so.

  21. Bastardi at it again this morning…..

    Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi · 5h5 hours ago
    HECKUVA way to run a thaw…snow/ice this weekend major Stratwarm another indicator that winter to stage Clemson comeback Jan 25 on

    Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi · 17h17 hours ago
    Euro supports our ideas of major trough developing on east coast late Jan and FEB. Why not, look at ’14 and ’15.. was WARM JAN 12-21!

    Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi · 20h20 hours ago
    10mb rapid warming set up for major eastern trough later Jan and Feb after “thaw” 40C rise in 8 days over NW Ter

  22. idealism; the practice of forming or pursuing ideals, especially unrealistically.

    I kind of fit under this and understand that. My argument is that I see no problem with this. Reasoning for me not having an issue is this.

    If you want something done, your going to go full out and hope you get at least half of it accomplished. If you only go for half way of what you want, you might only get 1/4 of what you want.

    Im hoping thats clear.

  25. And lastly….

    Judah Cohen ‏@judah47 · 24m24 minutes ago
    GFS forecast of high heights in NE Canada undercut by low heights in East US increases the chances of #snow for East US towards month’s end.

    OK, I will stop beating a dead horse before Blackstone has my jugular……
    Needless to say, things looking up for those who like winter after the next 2 weeks of mostly above normal temps.

  26. I have been on board with a 3 week period commencing later January / early February of potential near to below normal temps and perhaps additional storminess that could create about 3 week period where we could get 75% or more of our total snowfall for the season. Now that said, the pattern could evolve in such a way that the best snowfall chances pass south and east of the SNE.

    Please remember as you read these tweets and prognostications from media, private weather services, and weather website holders, that they have an interest in an active weather pattern beyond the love of weather and science. Winter weather drives ratings, website hits, and forecast consulting fees. The threat of inclimate weather more so than the actual event. Predicting snow within the commerce driven and densely populated northeast corridor is big business, as within a consolidated area 4 of the 10 biggest media markets are within 400 miles. Follow the money folks, these predictions are about more than atmospheric science.

    1. Dr. Cohen is a smart man, but like myself, can be guilty of sometimes working too hard to verify his own hypothesis.

    2. Some of the hype can drive heating oil prices because these guys are paid to work in the energy sector. Hey, good money if you can get it.
      Now, I’m no big believer in man made global warming, per se, BUT…some of the tweeters above make bookoo dollars as paid consultants and paid contributors to media outlets to push a non climate change agenda. Hence the tweets of cold and snow from coast to coast from September to April.

  27. General statement about what I have seen, no names in this, and hopefully only needed once.

    The reminder here is please don’t insult anyone through name calling or other methods. Sometimes we do things joking around and that’s one thing, but if you want to debate an issue with somebody, that’s completely encouraged so long as it is done civilly. I don’t need to remind anybody what civil means. Just remind yourself to exercise it. And we are all guilty at times of saying things we probably shouldn’t. It happens.

    The main point is this. We’re made up of varying types of people, races, ages, beliefs, etc. Yes sometimes there is going to be a natural clash when people are passionate about what they believe, but we MUST learn to live with those differences of opinion and must learn to be able to keep control if we choose to speak with someone of a differing view about the subject(s) you differ on.

    I realize we have liberal and conservative views here, democrats and republicans, Globe readers and Herald readers, CNN watchers and Fox News watchers, Coke drinkers and Pepsi Drinkers, shall I go on in the name of silliness or keep it serious? 😛

    If you feel you cannot discuss something with somebody without risking going outside the guidelines and rules here, then simply refrain from doing so, or request an email address or Facebook chat so you can debate it privately if the desire comes to that.

    If you really dislike somebody completely, and it’s perfectly fine if you do, just ignore their comments. It avoids all kinds of trouble. You are not required to agree with everything, nor are you required to get along with everyone. But on this blog I do require a good measure of respect and civil behavior. Sometimes we slip, but please try to keep it in check.

    Thank you all and please continue to enjoy and participate here!

    I’m going to review 12z stuff and make a few comments shortly. I am in the middle of a very busy day/week that keeps me away from here a little more than I want to be, but that’s the way it goes.

    Carry on…

    4. Thank you, TK. Well stated as always. And as always thank you for giving us this spectacular forum.

      I just returned from one of the fun events that is regularly scheduled in an older person’s life. Someone recently told me getting old is not for the weak. I was more than surprised to see we had not moved on so did take the opportunity to catch up in Vicki style

      Well, im in a great mood so indulged. As some know the gastro Drs had been watching an area that treated me to colonoscopies every three months. Then they felt it was safe to go three years. Today it was questionable but hopeful. The angel in my shoulder was there and, if I may, I’d felt him all week. All is clear. Not even a darned polyp and that has never happened. Next one in five years”…………woo hoo.

      Thanks for letting me share. Letting out a lot of weight on my shoulders feels mighty good

      8. Great news, Vicki. Unfortunately, as we age, that procedure is a necessity.
        A bit of humor……my daughter’s first job out of Rice University in Houston was as a sales rep for The Braintree Company.
        They make the magic prep, Go Litely.
        I remember asking her how many samples she had to lug around. She responded “none.” I will let you think about why .

  29. Ok 12z reviewed…

    Short term thoughts: The rain/snow showers that I thought might form near Cape Cod and spread northward never really got going. So missed on that one. Everything else looks on track through tonight. Tomorrow we bust into sun with passing clouds and it breaks 50 in most areas. Thursday we see many areas go way into the 50s though clouds will be dominant. Cold front comes through Friday but it will take a while for the cold air to arrive so the day itself will start mild and end colder.

    Weekend Etc.: Much colder Saturday, dry during the day, light snow possible at night especially southern areas, and snow may very well be in the air during the Pats game. Sunday looks sunnier than I thought earlier because there should be some space between that wave and the next, which arrives sometime on MLK Jr. Day into the day after. This system may produce a variety of precipitation types but nearly impossible to determine right now.

    Rest of mid January: Mild dominates.

    Late January: Possible turn to colder but may come in stages.

    February: I think it will be a colder month, relative to normal, but it may end up rather dry overall, but not without a few decent snow threats. Will be monitoring a couple major indices for this…

    1. So I’m cleaning off the deck furniture tomorrow and starting to plan cookouts …..thanks TK. Sounds perfect.

  30. Vicki, very good news on the test!

    TK, I’ll try and abide by the rules as best I can. Thanks for reminding us of the guidelines.

    1. Thanks, Joahua…….and I may still be a tad sedated but I cannot think of a time you have ever or could ever not abide by the rules. TK is lucky to have some voices of reason…..you and Tom come immediately to mind.

      1. I have been so busy with the start of school again, JPD, that I hadn’t even thought of the app.

        I just opened the app and it worked!

        What cities are we limited to? Major ones?
        Boston works. I tried to type in Taunton when I first got it.
        Maybe the city was too narrow.

        Boston works and is giving me its latest conditions and forecast.

        Thanks for your interest and I thank you for your hard work on this! It’s great!

        Also, Santa brought me an AcuRite rain gauge that I had asked for (I must have been a good boy after all!)…

        It was pretty accurate when I put it out for a late December rainstorm. I did bring it for the winter which proves that I am getting wiser in my old age (definitely not smarter!!!!)

        1. Excellent news Capt.
          You can enter any city in the world. Best to include
          State Abbr or Country abbr so the App knows your intention. Else you could end up with a different sity than desired. For example entering taunton, gets you taunton, Great Britain. So instead, enter Taunton,ma etc. and you’ll be fine.

          If you want say dublin, Ireland enter dublin, ir
          Dublin, Ohio enter dublin, ir

          There are 75-80 cities loaded with images.

          Have fun and please feel free to pass on any issues or
          suggestions. 😀

    2. GFS ensembles and Euro weeklies are pretty bullish on the +PNA and eastern US trough setting up around that time. Things are going to start getting interesting again around here in 2 weeks and beyond if they are correct!

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