Wednesday Forecast

72 Comments

4:12AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 11-15)
Pacific cold front pushes a batch of rain and even embedded thunder in a few areas through from west to east through 7:00AM impacting the early part of the commute today. The remainder of the day will feature sun and passing clouds and mild air. Another batch of lighter rain is possible tonight with a passing disturbance. The mild air will be firmly in control Thursday with rain showers likely over by dawn then holding off again until nighttime with the approach of a cold front. This front will bring colder air gradually into the region on Friday daytime then more aggressively Friday night and Saturday as high pressure builds north of the region. A weak disturbance passing south of the area Saturday night may bring a little light snow to southern areas before fair weather returns for Sunday.
TODAY: Rain and possible thunder ending from west to east through 7AM then sun and passing clouds. Highs 48-55. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain. Lows 40-47. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 50-58. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows 40-47. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 47-54 early, then cooling to the 30s by late-day. Wind NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny day. Mostly cloudy night with a chance of light snow southern areas. Lows 18-25. Highs 28-35.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 11-20. Highs 30-38.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 16-20)
A low pressure will try to run into a ridge along the East Coast and have trouble doing so early to mid period. Another may attempt later in the period. This means any precipitation will likely be limited and fall as rain, otherwise the overall pattern is mild and dry.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 21-25)
Overall mild/dry pattern continues here as well.

72 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  1. TK we have been in this really wet (multiple storms a week) pattern for a while now. I think you mentioned a while ago most patterns go around 6 weeks? Wasn’t sure if there was any general validity to that and when you might seee a pattern change (if possible)? Thanks!

    1. It’s a general rule of thumb, but it’s loose at best.

      Pattern change is very possible between the last week of January and the end of the first week of February.

      1. Thanks! Guessing I should be happy with the Devil I know…maybe a pattern change will up the ante to 4 storms a week ha.

  3. Didn’t expect so much snow melt last night…figured I would see bare ground for sure by late Thursday but I would say 80% of my snow is gone already.

  4. Thanks TK !

    Same as WeatherWiz, temps and dps in the 40s overnight melted the snow cover down to about 2″.

  5. The reason the snow melted very rapidly is because it was still loosely packed crystals and not partly melted & refrozen granular snowcover.

    1. Wow thats awesome. I keep thinking of that winter a few years ago where storm after storm the snow would pile up with no melting in between.

  7. Thank you, TK. All but patches of snow here too but wow, Tom, that yours went so quickly. Thanks for expkanation TK

    It was a great night. I enjoyed hearing the wind and rain. And it’s a beautiful morning.

  9. Thanks TK. What a temperature swing from yesterday morning!

    I think my concerns from yesterday about strong wind potential last night were validated. Many 35-45mph gusts reported with that strong band of showers that moved through. Blue Hill gusted over 55mph, so you didn’t have to go up much higher to get into even stronger gusts. The system that brought those winds/rain became a very powerful storm late yesterday and overnight, well to our north and west over the western Great Lakes.

    1. Winds were great here also. Had a few things in the yard blown over. I have no idea how strong but one shook the house pretty good.

  10. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Snow virtually GONE, save for piles and snow banks. See Ya. Nice knowing you.
    Lasted nearly 5 days. That’s a big deal this Winter. 😀

    It’s Wednesday, so I guess things could still change, but it surely does NOT look like
    there will be ANY snow anywhere in NE Saturday night into Sunday. We shall see.

  11. TK if you happen to see this, I have a question re your explanation of why snow melted so quickly. Well sort of. And this may be one of the silly questions where someone says “well…duh…”

    If the water content of the snow makes it fluffier, does it also mean that when it melts less water goes into the water table? Sorry, even sounds silly to me as it seems an obvious yes but figured I would ask.

    1. I can answer that. Absolutely yes. It was a low water content snow, therefore
      when it melts, there is less water.

      For example, lets take 10:1 ratio snow so when 10 inches melts, it adds
      1 inch of water to the water table (actually some goes in storm drains and some
      evaporates, but for this discussion fine.)

      If it were 20:1 ratio snow for the same 10 inches of snow, then ONLY
      0.5 inch of water would go to the water table.

      1. Thank you, JPD. That is pretty much what I was thinking but wasn’t positive. So, when we think about the water table and look back to winter, saying we had X inches of snow really doesn’t mean a lot because it depends on the type of snow we have. I’m assuming, perhaps incorrectly, that the lighter snow that we have just had evaporates faster also. All in all, if we want water, we want heavy snow.

        Not that my thought process relates to anything. I’m not even sure where it came from. Perhaps, the meds from yesterday are still in play 😉

        2. You are dead on. If we want to add to the water table, we
          would prefer HIGHER water content snow OR
          a lower ratio snow. ELSE a crap load of the higher ratio
          snow. 😀

      1. I think so John. So far anyway. Just have to watch to make
        sure that wave to our South doesn’t sneak up this way.

  16. Thanks, TK.

    I wish the mets wouldn’t talk about the warm-up as a “January thaw.” January hasn’t been cold with the exception of a few days (for that matter, December wasn’t cold). And, it looks like we might go through a stretch of more than 2 weeks of above normal temperatures with frequent rain showers. In my book, this doesn’t count as a “January thaw.” Let’s call it a continuation of the relatively mild winter we’ve been having thus far. The Pacific zonal flow has been predominant, as has the ridge of high pressure to our southeast. It’s still early to declare winter a dud. But, should the upcoming 2-week stretch become a 4 or 6-week period of relative warmth, then for all intents and purposes this winter will be a dud of sorts. Sure, we can and will get snows in mid to late February and March, but consistent cold and snow is rare once mid February rolls around.

    2. Or we could call it the shift in the seasons……………..ok, maybe I won’t mention that again. But now that WBZ mets, including Eric and Barry, have given me the power, I just cannot help myself 😉

      What is the January thaw…inquiring minds might want to know. Thanks for prompting me to look, Joshua. Apparently, something triggered my curious side today.

      http://farmersalmanac.com/weather/2010/01/25/what-is-a-january-thaw/

      Well, hmmmm a whole new term to me…”Bonspiel” https://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/articles/defining-the-january-thaw/19219

      Maybe our friends to the north have a better definition….http://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/january-thaw/

      Ok, I’ll stop now.

      1. It is a shift in the seasons. Just look at the last 10 years. Its a natural process, but its happening over to short of a time period for it to be just a natural process.

  18. I would say that the WBZ Accuweather team’s prediction of 55″ for Logan is in jeopardy unless a snow blitz comes in February and March. Of course I thought from the beginning that number was too high anyway. TK’s number (33.3″) may be much more realistic. We will see.

    2. I would say so, unless the turn around is a partial repeat of 2014-2015.
      And that appears unlikely. 😀

  19. Here is what was sent to Dr. Cohen, for better or worse:

    Good Day Dr. Cohen,

    I thoroughly enjoy reading your Arctic Oscillation and polar vortex analysis and forecasts each week. Your research, time and effort put forth to create the blog content is extraordinary and I appreciate it very much. I also enjoyed watching your appearances on WCVB Channel 5 with Harvey Leonard discussing your Winter outlooks. Although I am not a meteorologist or an atmospheric scientist, I am degreed in mathematics and have been a weather enthusiast for 60 years.

    If my memory serves me correctly, in the past you tended to be more decisive in your analysis and outlook. Lately I have noted a trend towards more indecisiveness. Perhaps it is just the nature of the current and forecasted parameters. I certainly don’t know for sure.

    As an example, please permit me to site an entry from Monday’s blog.


    If a robust SSW does occur, that could potentially force a more persistent cold across the NH, especially North America where the cold has been more transitory than Eurasia. If no SSW occurs, then I would expect the weather to continue to be sensitive to variations in the atmospheric circulation especially along the eastern edges of the ocean basins. One last alternative is if the tropospheric and stratospheric PVs couple with both in a strong phase then mild weather could become more persistent across the hemisphere.

    It may be a function of academia, but have you ever thought of stating the argument for exactly what you think will happen with all of the attending reasons, parameters and teleconnections and then at the end of the section discuss all of the mitigating factors that might render your argument fallacious? My personal opinion is that it would translate to a more superior blog than it already is.

    Thank you for listening to me and I look forward to reading your future blog entries.

    Regards,

    Now let’s see If I get a response and if so, what the response is.

    1. I just got back from a nice swim at Nantasket. 😀 😀 😀

      of course not, but man is it warm out there!!! My car thermometer was reading
      55 about 1/2 hour ago. 😀

    2. Slider and a window in every room wide open. Clouds moving in. I am hoping by time I finish working it will still be ok to do some deck sitting.

  21. You know your in for a warm winter pattern, when a model like the EURO projects for there to be a nice 992 mb low just east of the outer Cape and on the west side of it, the projected 850 mb temps are 0 to 5C ABOVE !! This is hour 216 (January 20th).

    1. I was just noticing that. Ordinarily that should be dumping snow.
      Not the case!

      Oh well, not much we can do about it except enjoy the warmth and the break in the heating bill.

  22. Dr. Cohen answered me. Here is the text of his email.

    Hi David,

    Thank you for your very nice email. Feedback is always appreciated. I think you are correct in the points that you make. The past two week but especially this week my uncertainty as greater than usual and I think that it came across in my writing. I still do have certain expectations and I thought that I had laid those out But I see your point. I will make more effort to first make clear what my expectations are and then provide alternative outcomes as you suggest.

    Best,
    Judah

    I think this response is beyond my wildest expectations. Pretty amazing, if you ask me.

    Dr. Cohen is a class act.

    1. He seems very reflective. It also helps that you crafted a very good letter. That is pretty cool feedback.

    3. Wow and wow again. I am now impressed beyond expectations with Dr. Cohen.

      So glad you wrote to him; but even more, it appears he is glad you wrote. Well done, Dave.

      1. Thanks so much Vicki. I am certainly impressed with Dr. Cohen.
        I had no idea what to expect. None whatsoever.

        1. Your email was excellent. You started the ball rolling and he picked it up. It was the best of the best on both sides and not just his. I write a lot of emails (used to be letters). I’d say I hear back on a bit better than 60% of them. I’d like to take a second to credit my mom who was my mentor.

          I cannot recall hearing back as quickly as you and as sincerely. That is not to find fault; as any answer, to me, is not to be faulted. I just do not recall one this honest and respectful.

    4. Agreed…class act who is capable of taking constructive criticism and acting upon it. Wish I could do that so graciously. Sadly, that is not one of my strong points.

      1. Absolutely agree Sue. Also an excellent example of why it truly can and does make a difference when we address the person and how we address the person. It is just a big smile day I’d say!!

        1. If one wants to get a point across, it is best to do it in
          a most respectful manner. Usually better results that way. 😀

          1. Yep and to the individual. Without both, nothing is accomplished.

            I have to admit to reading his letter about six times now. Just because it makes me feel good. Out of a rather difficult discussion the other night, I’d say we all learned some very valuable lessons.

            There is always a lesson to be learned or….. in the case of weather folks……a silver lining to every cloud.

            1. I was going to mention something about that, but couldn’t come up with anything that sounded right. You took care of that.

              Thank you.

    5. That’s awesome Dave! Nothing wrong with honest questioning or disagreement, and sending an email to him proves a genuine interest.

    6. I told you he would respond . Two or three yrs ago him and I were exchanging emails back and forth . As I said also he was on here for a short time checking out this blog . He thought the blog was great.

  23. Very spring-like today. The birds were out, chirping away. Hopefully not mating quite yet, but on the lookout for Mr. and Mrs. Right.

    We can certainly get a snow blitz. I recall January 2011 being mild to begin with and very cold and snowy towards the end with a succession of snowstorms for about a 6 week stretch, well into late February. Nevertheless, the climate criteria that year and in 2015 were different from 2017. Perhaps my assessment is wrong, but I think our stubborn pattern isn’t likely to budge much, which would mean: 1. Short-lived cold spurts; 2. Limited snow chances, really as a result of 1.

    1. Unless TK and JMA are correct in their assessment of some sort of pattern change and snow chances for a 3-4 week period starting around the
      1st week in Feb. I was hopeful of a last week in January start, but right
      now it’s not looking that way. 😀

  24. Dr. Judah Cohen’s response is thoughtful. The Eurasia cold he’s referring to is something I’ve been observing from afar. Countries such as Turkey and Greece have been very cold, and persistently so. As I mentioned yesterday, it would appear that much of northwestern Europe will also be getting into the persistent cold action as a Scandinavian High settles in. This essentially serves as a block to those Atlantic lows that usually traverse the British Isles, the low countries, and southern Scandinavia. The High will have little effect on Ireland, however, as its prevailing wind (west/southwesterly), will not change (practically never does) bringing rain showers to the emerald island.

  25. Gee. I sat on the deck and waited. No one arrived for the cookout

    Burger was great 🙂

    In all seriousness, I’d love to have a get together here once weather allows us to be outside.

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