Thursday Forecast

95 Comments

2:35AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 12-16)
We’ll be in a warm sector today but moisture in the region will produce a few episodes of showers among many clouds, though a few breaks of sun are possible. A strong cold front will come through from northwest to southeast during the overnight and early morning hours Friday, which will be an “upside down” temperature day, with high temperatures in the early part of the day followed by a colder trend. High pressure will build to the north of the region during Saturday with cold air in place, and try to remain through Sunday-Monday, but a disturbance passing to the south of the region Saturday night should be close enough to produce a little light snow at least in CT, RI, and southern MA, which may coincide with the Patriots vs Texans playoff game. If that does occur, it would more likely be just flakes in the air with no significant accumulation.
TODAY: Mainly cloudy but breaks of sun possible. Scattered to numerous rain showers early morning, isolated to scattered rain showers thereafter. Highs 50-55 central MA through southern NH, 55-60 eleswhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with isolated to scattered rain showers evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 38-45. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, shifting to W.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Slight risk of isolated snow showers late-day especially west and north of Boston. Highs 45-52 early morning, then falling to the 30s. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy with isolated snow showers evening. Clear overnight. Lows 15-22. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty, shifting to NW.
SATURDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing high clouds. Slight chance of light snow mainly southern MA, CT, and RI at night. Highs 27-34. Wind N 5-15 MPH early, then light variable.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 15-22. Highs 30-38.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Lows 15-22. Highs 32-40.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 17-21)
This 5-day period will feature mostly above normal temperatures but periods of unsettled weather as the Pacific jet stream carries several disturbances across the region.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 22-26)
The mild/unsettled pattern starts this period but it may trend colder/drier by the end.

95 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  3. Good morning and thanks you TK.

    I see the Nams bring the flakes Sat evening whlle the others do not.

    You have been all over that. What is your insight?

    tx

    1. Seems to be a non issue old salty regarding the snow and if it did probably would be in the form of snow showers .

      1. My point was that the models have consistently been saying NO
        (except for last night’s 0Z and 6Z NAM. At the same time,
        day after day, TK has consistently called for the chance of
        light snow.

        I simply was asking what it was that had TK including the snow in his forecast. I think it is his uncanny ability to see the big picture and NEVER taking models verbatim. 😀

    1. Vicki – I was out yesterday a good deal of the day w/doctors and such – just saw the happy and wonderful news about your colonoscopy. What a happy relief that must be! So happy for you. I am due for one but I must find the right dr. Both my husband and I are due for a colonoscopy and we are trying a new one in a few wks.

      1. Thank you, rainshine. I hope your appointments went well and that you and your husband are improving. If you need a name, mine is head of gastro at Newton-Wellesley but I have friends who have other doctors in his same practice and love them all. Please feel free to email me also!!!

        So nice to see you here!

  7. Thanks, TK.

    Birds are singing – windows wide open – our kitty is enjoying the January thaw. It’s mild but damp out. ‘Though the sky is gray the light keeps changing so it looks weirdly pretty out. But winter will be back again for sure. Hoping for at least one more good snowstorm before the end of March then I’m ready for spring! 🙂

  9. Thanks, TK.

    Birds are singing again. The tufted titmouse and chickadee in front of my apartment appeared very happy with the `early spring.’ The chickadee winked at me when I said “global warming.” I guess I’d count birds as snow- and cold-haters. They seem to never sing or chirp when it’s really cold or snowy. Dogs are different, however. Many really love the snow. I saw an incredible variety of dogs last Saturday in the dog area on Boston Common (where they can go unleashed) and they were truly having a blast.

  10. Nice spring day out.
    Actually, we’ve seen worse days in May!
    Looking at both the euro and GFS this morning (operational and ensemble means), hard to find deep winter anywhere through the end of the month. Then I guess we see what February brings.

    1. Agree totally. Pretty Pathetic.

      This weekend’s brief cold will be it for the remainder of the month, unless the trend to colder can sneak up a wee bit and arrive a few days before the end
      of the month. We shall see.

      This morning’s 12Z NAM wants to bring a touch of snow (and I do mean a touch) to Southern areas Saturday evening. “about” up to Foxborough. We shall see. 500MB chart appears HOSTILE to snow getting up here. 😀

  12. Some heavy snow squalls and even blizzard conditions hitting the British Isles as that advertised cold spell begins to settle in. And it ain’t going anywhere for a while. The Dutch are hoping for their 11-city tour, which is a speed-skating event that takes competitors through 11 towns and villages. They need deep and persistent cold for that. Most years they don’t get that, but I think this year will be different. I’m seeing cold conditions on several models through the end of January in northwestern Europe.

      1. Indeed. In Dutch it’s called the “Elfstedentocht.” It doesn’t happen often, and there’s no guarantee it will this year. But, the canals will freeze and skating on natural ice will begin late this weekend. For the event to occur, they need an extended deep freeze – several weeks. The northern part of the country may indeed get that. The southern part will get more snow, but less cold. The Dutch love real winters, in part because they don’t often get them. It’s mostly a Seattle-like climate in winter: 40s and light rain. But every now and then the set-up is just right. One thing I noticed is that variability is not a feature of Dutch weather. So, once a weather pattern is locked in, it usually stays almost constant for weeks or months. Unfortunately, >80% of the time that weather pattern in winter is gray and dismal (40s), and summer is also rather cloudy and often rainy (60s and low 70s). But, when a favorable pattern occurs in the winter or summer, the weather hardly changes for several weeks. For example, upper 20s and sunny in winter; mid 80s and sunny in summer. Practically no changes at all for, say, a 3-week period. I attribute the phenomenon in winter and summer to the same strong, virtually stationary high pressure area.

    2. I’ve said all winter that there’s plenty of cold. Its just in Europe and Asia right now instead of our area.

  13. Thanks TK. Very warm pattern for this time of year. It’s been an up and down winter for sure, and while this will be an extended and impressive stretch of warmth, there is plenty of time for a colder pattern to return, and I suspect it will do so towards the end of the month. So hang in there if you’re looking for more cold/snow! And Longshot, enjoy your trip! It looks very warm down there, even by Florida standards this time of year.

  15. Thanks TK !

    More of this weather …

    No winter coat, we can park our cars normally in our driveway again, the heats off a good part of the time and I’m not frozen to my core !

    A few weeks above normal and then, I’ll be ready to handle more snow 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

  16. Matt, Portland (Oregon, I assume) getting that snow and cold fits my `theory.’ When it’s relatively cold in the Pacific northwest, it’s often relatively cold in northwestern Europe. Similarly, in summer when the Pacific northwest experiences a heatwave (infrequent out there), northwestern Europe often experiences a heatwave. The two patterns do not always correlate, but often do.

  17. No surprise on the PNW cold/snow. Refer to comments on the winter outlook from mid November. 😉

  18. Just came in from outside. If I didn’t know better, I’d think it was April 12 instead of January 12. Then again if it were April 12 with this air mass and a mid April sun angle, it would probably be pushing low to mid 70’s.

  19. I looked back at WHW January and February 2011 to see if there is any parallel to this year’s pattern. I’d say no. Back then TK talked about the persistent Greenlandic block, which would usher in a series of snowstorms over a long stretch of time. A very impressive series, I might add. Boston had quite a snowpack that year!

    I don’t see any blocking pattern on the horizon this year. In fact, quite the opposite. Of course, all could change. We’ll have to stay tuned.

  20. Pathetic winter weather… was out night after night last week adding layers to my backyard rink, finally put the last touches on it Tuesday morning, enough ice to skate on across all of it, put the puck guard up and the corner pieces in, and now its a pond again… oh well… I know most of the ice is still there and it will freeze up pretty quick again, but a little frustrating! Maybe we can actually use by Sunday or Monday.

    Wonder how the Frozen Fenway is holding up… taking my kids for the college games on Saturday… My Northeastern student is meeting us, as they play on Saturday evening, but of course that had to be the slot that the Patriots ended up in…

  21. I wonder about looking to January 2012. That was the month we were lucky enough to spend in Humarock. Water temp for the new year plung was 46. There were some cold days, but I remember a lot of days and even into the night sitting on the deck watching the ocean. One must remember that I am not a good barometer when it comes to cold but I do remember some warmer days

  22. Hang in there winter lovers. I predict a harsh early half of February and several big storms. Don’t be fooled by the current warmth imo.

        1. THIS????

          **ALERT !! ** New edition of THE NEXT 3 WEEKENDS newsletter is now on line… Best thing since the Cubs won the World Series !!!
          TOPICS.. minor ice snow event for northern Middle Atlantic this weekend seems likely as cold front stalls over southern IND/ OH / MD — Much above Normal temps for eastern half the country JAN 15-21 while Western CONUS gets crushed with huge precip & cold temps– STRONG signal for Midwest / Great Lakes Low JAN 22-24 — Strong signal that cold stormy pattern to return to eastern CONUS JAN 30-FEB 7

          https://scontent-ort2-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t31.0-8/15994859_1238429976204258_1718602498859713102_o.jpg?oh=b45b096bfecc9b05e514a5f5af1793ee&oe=58D6D183

          1. ^^^ This!
            I love his Facebook post where he type ALERT 3-4 times in caps. You know something’s comin’ up big when you see that .
            (Tongue firmly planted in cheek)

              1. Ah hah. Funny then that he just happened to have one loaded up.
                But then that is probably what prompted your post in the 1st place.

                I often get a kick out of him.

                I’d rather look at his material than IN-AccuWeather OR
                the Non-Weather Channel.

  24. Meh, winters not over by a long shot. You winter folks keep the faith. February is usually the snowiest month. At least lately seems like.
    Only thing to give me pause is that we are coming quickly to the deepest part of winter in terms of the nadir of cold. I see the 18th of Jan thru valentines day as the “dog days of winter. Looking at guidance, seems we lose half that nadir period. Doesn’t mean it can’t get cold as heck in late February or into march, we’ve seen it. Just gets harder to do. And with what I think will be a persistent SE ridge, deep cold conducive to snow and snow retention may not be in the cards this year.

  25. Btw,

    Today’s record at Logan is 61.

    My AcuRite unit was reading 62 and My car thermometer was also reading 62.
    I suspect both were a couple of degrees too high. We shall see.

  26. It was 60 at Logan at 1:54 PM. Hmmm, wondering IF
    the record was at least tied in Between observations OR “perhaps” even
    broken.

    Crap, if it’s going to be this mild, C’mon break the damn record. Let’s get something’out of it. 😀

  27. ALERT ALERT! Just kidding.

    Pattern change may be delayed by about 1 week. I’ll get into that later…

    I am battling a monstrous head cold that is taking aim at the upper chest. Will this derail me from my projects? NO WAY!

    More on the weather in a while…

    1. Booo

      Delay it a little more and it will be Spring.

      Reminds me of a few years ago where all of the pundits kept saying
      it was going to turn colder. NEVER did!!

      Please don’t let it be that again? OR if it is, BRING on SPRING FULL THROTTLE!

    2. Oh no! I hope you are feeling better soon TK. I had it just before Christmas and it was awful. Do me a favor, get some rest and don’t be staying up until the wee hours of the morning. 🙂

    3. TK – please please don’t push yourself. Everyone here has had it (I am wearing a pretend face mask). My other kids and families have had it. It does not go away easily. Almost all have ended up on antibiotics. It is really nasty.

      We are fine here. Again please please just rest.

    5. Dude, it’s gonna take three weeks all in if you have what I had which matches your brief description. Good luck.

        1. Mac said that at one point several years ago about something that we all had.

          Retrac is not kidding. Even the youngest kids have taken at least two and it comes back if you are not careful. My kids and grands are all very healthy. Each family has been dealing with it since Christmas or just before. I am not kidding when I say I am dodging germs over here.

    1. There’s a virulent strain of rhinovirus going around. Not flu per se, but a bad cold. It’s impacted half of the people at my office. I’ve been spared so far. Well, the respiratory stuff, that is. My GI system is never spared of anything. I’m an IBS gold medalist.

      TK, hope you feel better.

  29. Feel better TK
    This day 6 years ago Bradley recorded its biggest snowstorm on record 24 inches which still stands today. This was part of a record breaking 54.3 inches of snow that month.
    Great 6 week stretch that winter had if you love snow.
    This pattern big time UGH and my UGH meter is broken!

  30. Speaking of rhinoviruses … I’ve always been fascinated by flu `season’ patterns, the spread of contagious diseases, and the role weather plays in all this. Flu can hit at any time, including the heat of summer, but its prevalence tends to peak in the winter months. The relatively cold air (well, not today) doesn’t cause this, but it lowers our immune system’s ability to fight off infection. Plus, we spend more of our time indoors in confined spaces without fresh air – breeding grounds for viruses. The more moisture around – damp, cold weather – the higher the prevalence of respiratory illnesses. Hence, a relatively isolated place like Iceland still has one of the highest rate of respiratory illnesses in the world. Iceland is plagued by very damp, cold (30s, 40s, and 50s) weather almost all the time.

  31. Thanks everyone!

    Funny thing about my illnesses. As far as something like this head cold goes, I have been quite well during a time everyone around me was falling apart. I had a brief half-cold about a week ago, and then last night this thing came on pretty fast.

    The problem before was auto-immune related – a condition that is a cousin to lupus and rheumatism, but is technically neither. Being on a medication that fights this by reducing the strength of my immune system can make me more vulnerable to other ailments, though I’ve been quite lucky overall during the course of this disease.

    1. I think both months may end up on the colder side of normal but also drier than normal, however there will be a period (2 to 3 weeks) where the snowfall is above normal during that time.

      Temperature is going to be dependent on PNA / EPO.
      Snowfall is going to be dependent on those and MJO.

      We may end up with stuff pushed way south much of the time (Mid Atlantic).

      1. Its usually a high water content snow out there. When I skied Tahoe, the snow was like cement. Not the dry fluffy powder snow you get in Utah and Colorado.

        Which makes those snow amounts even more impressive!

  36. Tweet from a very level headed meteorologist-Brett Anderson

    Latest European model weeklies hint at another pattern shift end Jan/early Feb….drier west…cold prairies…colder/snowier east.

  37. Feel better, TK. We had a minor cold back in the fall (in the middle of it is when I found out I had kidney stones). Fun. Anyway, I am slightly underweight and have been instructed to eat more – which isn’t hard as I am always hungry. However, I have Irritable Bowel Syndrome and don’t want to eat when my stomach isn’t happy. Also, w/kidney stones, I am not supposed to eat certain foods. Very confusing – doctors make me confused and therefore I don’t know what to eat so I don’t eat much. Plus some stress at home. Ughh! Hate to complain. Off the soap-box and TK – please take it easy and get rest. I see your early hours, too. Feel better soon!

  38. How about the warmth on the ECMWF days 5-10! Looks like every day during that period has temperatures at least near 50, in some cases near 60. January equivalent of a heat wave if it verifies.

    Pattern change coming… agree with TK it may be delayed slightly, I’d kind of been thinking in the 1/25-1/30 time frame. Probably right towards the end of that window, with a transition period leading into it. Euro weeklies looked really good for February. That looks to be a cold month. I again go to something TK has said though, that the big question will be whether the new pattern leans towards cold/dry or cold/snowy.

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