7:22AM
DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 13-17)
In comes the cold air today which then hangs around for much of the long weekend as high pressure centered north of the region assumes control. A weak disturbance passing south of New England Saturday night will do no more than toss a couple snow flurries into southern areas, though at this point it looks like that activity will miss Foxboro where the Patriots and Texans will be playing. Moderation in temperature will occur late in the period as high pressure become stronger along the East Coast.
TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Slight risk of isolated snow showers late-day especially west and north of Boston. Highs 45-52 early morning, then falling to the 30s. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy with isolated snow showers evening. Clear overnight. Lows 15-22. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty, shifting to NW.
SATURDAY: Sunshine and some high clouds. Highs 27-34. Wind N 5-15 MPH early, then light variable.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of snow flurries mainly near the South Coast. Lows 15-22. Wind light variable.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 30-38. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 15-22. Highs 32-40.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Lows 18-25. Highs 38-45.
DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 18-22)
This 5-day period will feature mostly above normal temperatures but periods of unsettled weather as the Pacific jet stream carries several disturbances across the region.
DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 23-27)
The mild/unsettled pattern starts this period but it may trend colder/drier by the end.
Thanks, TK.
Hope you’re feeling okay.
Rainshine, Hope all is well with you. IBS and its associated conditions GERD and gastritis aren’t fun.
Thanks, Joshua. I never have had GERD and I don’t think gastritis. If you have that, it must be awful. My sister has GERD. I used to have combination IBS-D and IBS-C; now it’s mainly IBS-C. Trying a new dr. for colonoscopy. Had one 11 yrs. ago and ok but I don’t know now. Not good at taking medication. May have to if it continues. I would Love to eat the things that would put weight on me – ice cream; mac and cheese and I have the appetite for it but it doesn’t help the IBS-C. Too binding. Oh, well. My primary care says eat what I want to put on those extra lbs. I need. I don’t know if there’s anything going on with me – hoping this dr. is good and can get colonoscopy soon. But I will say my husband and I have been under a lot of stress – and before that I was doing ok. So, we will see. Hope you are doing fine.
Nice 3 day weekend with no weather interruptions . Go Pats !!
Hoping Blount feels better as he has been not practicing due to an illness.
Right now I am thinking any change towards colder would be at the very end of the TK’ soutlook period and that would be the commencing of colder, but also a less unsettled period. So cold and dry into carries us into early February, and any scenario where storm chances improve would be delayed by a week or two. I think my 3-4 week window that I have been advertising for a few months is probably a 2-3 week window where there are equal chances for a few moderate to significant snow events. Of course the equal chance is a some of those opportunities are suppressed well south.
Thank you.
Thanks, TK. Hope you are feeling better.
Well, winter is coming back! It is 39 degrees in Sudbury right now.
Thank you TK and hope you are feeling better. Happy Friday to my WHW family! I know I am very much looking forward to a long weekend and a Pats win!!!
Thanks TK !
Good morning and thank you TK.
Beautiful morning today and I assume a beautiful day, even if cooling off.
No great shakes for cold this weekend. Absolutely nothing we can’t handle.
Pretty benign Winter season so far. Yawn…Ho Hum….
The cold/snow window appears to be collapsing. Wonder if it will collapse to

NOTHING.
We shall see.
Good morning and thank you, TK. Hope you are able to rest.
Just had coffee on the deck. It is 40 here but really quite refreshing. Birds were chirping away and what seems to be our resident red tailed hawk was calling in the distance.
This is the 6Z GFS all the way out to 1/29.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017011306/gfs_z500a_namer_53.png
I see a big fat AleutianLow! That sure smacks of a continuation of
the POSITIVE PHASE of the EPO (Eastern Pacific Oscillation).
http://static1.squarespace.com/static/522d4defe4b0a015e8d6c6a5/t/54b908f4e4b0ff956984b4b9/14214126019%2069/?format=1000w
Things aren’t lining up tele wise. We do get a EPO drop towards neutral at the end of the month. That would indicate we get some more cold in here, but probably not much colder than climo.
The MJO is weak sauce. Its in a favorable phase for snow, but there’s no cold and everything cuts across the lakes. By the time the EPO drops, whatever wave strength the MJO has collapses. That would mean colder but dry.
Might does get a little better towards the last week of January and into the first few days of Feb if your looking for snow. There are some systems depicted, but the run to run variability moves the lows around anywhere from inside coastals with some back and snow, to inside runners, to total southern suppression. So who knows. At least the teleconnectors may be more favorable, the SE ridge relaxes, and the look becomes more serviceable for snow chances. But it’s 2 to 2.5 weeks out, so we’ll see. I’m still not convinced given the weakness of the MJO. But maybe.
It’s getting colder in the city .
Feels colder than 42. See what happens when we get spoiled .
Thanks, TK…
Hope everyone is feeling better soon.
A big Pats win tomorrow night will help do that!!!!
Our sump pump has started running again…first time in a very long time.
2.25″ of liquid precip in the first 12 days of the new year!
gfs shows storms going to the North or way to the south
We need some good snow Just went up north , there is good coverage for the ski areas but its spring conditions in darn January
It’s not good once again in ski country. They had good snow coverage for a while, but this month looks dismal, especially after this weekend (they’ll be able to make snow). Not as bad as last year, but temps in the 40s in January is not conducive to reasonable ski conditions.
Went to the Dutch weather site to check on the situation over there. Right now they’re experiencing what they call a `northwesterstorm:’ Winds out of the northwest – from the North Sea – at over 50mph (sustained; severe gale with wind gusts at the coast of over 65mph), snow showers and squalls. This will be followed by a 10-14 day stretch of cold, (<30F during the day; teens at night) dry, sunny weather. Forecasters there say that by the 27th of January they expect a gradual return to `normal' weather – 40s and light rain, with the prevailing southwesterly. So, I'm hoping that as they adjust back to `normal' in two weeks time we do the same, except in our case `normal' will include cold and snow.
I know this is a Looooooooooooon shot, but is there any hope from the Euro?
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017011312/ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_11.png
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017011312/ecmwf_z500a_us_11.png
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017011312/ecmwf_T850_us_11.png
I think that model run may be too aggressive and quick with the timing of that change.
That would figure, but I look the look of that map.
Just don’t see that often enough.
It will probably be GONE with tonight’s 0Z run.
Many thanks
I even LIKE the look of that map.
What it is representing is the atmosphere’s want to flip things as we head into February. It’s almost like a preview, just a little too early.
I figured that is what you meant.
Here’s hoping that the Euro is onto something and it actually WILL flip earlier than expected. Yes, I know, HIGHLY
unlikely.
I’ll get a good chuckle when I look at the 0Z run it see it GONE and any hint of a pattern flip GONE with it.
Look at that warm air to the north, it will end up eating away at any cold air that does wrap around it.
http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=zr_acc&rh=2017011312&fh=84&r=conus&dpdt=
gfs showing near 2 inches of freezing rain in parts of Kansas and Oklahoma. (midwest and south central USA.)
Canadian ( believe is a bit over done but shows near 3 and a half inches of Ice in some locations.
http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ggem&p=zr_acc&rh=2017011312&fh=84&r=conus&dpdt=
Nam also shows 1 to 2 inches of ice in the time that it shows and still is going.
One heck of an Ice event.
That would be crippling if it came to fruition
All models showing at least one inch
AFC playoff game Pittsburgh Steelers-Kansas City Chiefs has been moved from 1:05 to 8:20 Sunday because of the ice storm. Officials afraid for all of the fans trying to get to Arrowhead Stadium Sunday morning.
Which means that the Patriots will have to wait a bit longer to find out who their opponent is for the AFC Championship Game next Sunday at Gillette.
Fortunately ice storms in SNE are rare.
I don’t know the timeline on precip arrival but a good move on NFL’s part keeping fans safe as possible.
New update awaits when you rise on Saturday morning. Not much change or effort into this one thanks to this nasty head cold, but not a whole lot to change anyway. Good day and good weekend all!