Saturday Forecast

107 Comments

2:12AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 14-18)
I’m a bit under the weather, but I would still like to stay on top of the weather – for you faithful readers! Just a short update today. Weak disturbance passes south of the region tonight with a risk of a little light snow near the South Coast, otherwise high pressure centered north of the region controls the weather through the holiday weekend (including Monday – MLK Jr Day). Low pressure approaches from the west late Tuesday and brings unsettled weather through Wednesday, along with milder air, resulting in a rain event.
TODAY: Sunshine and some clouds. Highs 27-34. Wind N 5-15 MPH early, then light variable.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of light snow mainly near the South Coast. Lows 15-22. Wind light variable.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 30-38. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 15-22. Highs 32-40.
TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of brief ice to rain at night. Lows 18-25. Highs 38-45.
WEDNESDAY: Mainly cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows 32-40. Highs 45-52.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 19-23)
This 5-day period will feature mostly above normal temperatures but periods of unsettled weather as the Pacific jet stream carries several disturbances across the region.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 24-28)
The mild/unsettled pattern starts this period but it may trend colder/drier by the end.

107 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  1. TK thank you, In Fort Myers, coming back on Monday. Daily high is 81.

    Are we looking at the possibility of light snow during the game?

  3. Thanks TK…get better soon!

    Hard to believe just last Saturday at this time we were undergoing a moderate snowfall with up to nearly 20″ south of Boston and today all areas are completely bare. I believe the theme this winter will have any snow not on the ground very long.

  4. Thank you, TK. I hope you can rest and feel better

    Philip, was it only last Saturday? Seems longer ago. But then Christmas seems longer to me than just three weeks

  5. Thanks TK. Hope you feel better!

    This is no average January thaw. The coming 10-12 days, combined with the past few days, will be a noteworthy period. We’ll be looking at one of the warmest (maybe the top warmest in some places) two week January period on record for a large swath of the central and eastern US. That’s a big deal. Even today, the “cold” day in the stretch, is just slightly cooler than normal. A couple more seasonable days over the long weekend, then we’re in the January furnace for at least a good 8-10 days.

    Finally, it’s game day! Can’t wait for tonight. I suspect it’s a much closer game than many are expecting, but we should be back at Gillette again next weekend.

  6. This has the feel of a 31-6 Patriots win. I don’t see anyway the Texans can win this game.
    I can’t wait till 4:40pm tomorrow for the Cowboys to beat the Packers and shut a lot of the people like Shannon Sharpe that said we would be one and done. This game to me is the best of the weekend.

    1. Do NOT discount the Packers. Unless Rogers has a complete meltdown,
      you are in for one rough game.

      That being said, I do Hope your Cowboys win, not just for you, but I do
      not want the Pats to have to play the Packers in the SB.

      😀

    2. Not being a fan of bye weeks is doubled by my not being a fan of the so called easy wins. Both make me squirmy. I’m making my nachos and wings and enjoying the game 🙂

  8. 0Z Euro still had that very interesting feature, stronger but delayed about 12 hours
    over yesterday’s 12Z run. Shows some ocean effect snows here way out ahead
    of the system due to that Quebec High to our North and winds NE from the ocean.

    surface

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017011400/ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_11.png

    500mb

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017011400/ecmwf_z500a_us_11.png

    850mb

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017011400/ecmwf_T850_us_11.png

    What I don’t get is the swath of 850mb warmth to our NortWest????
    Ahh what’s the worry, not going to happen anyway.

    Still, I want to see IF it’s still there on the 12Z run. For now, that is 2 consecutive
    runs. I like that. Even as depicted, it could slide out South of us??? Not enough
    information to know.

  9. A year ago today….day and not date wise (date would be 16th) we missed a major storm. I recall TK saying he doubted most…other than those in her of course…realized how close we were.

  10. Thanks JPDave. If we win tomorrow first time since 1995 will be playing for a trip to the Super Bowl. If were able to run the ball score and control the clock we could win. If Packers shut down our run game force us into 3rd and long were in trouble. This is not the same Packers team we beat in Green Bay in October. Were a 5 point favorite but you would think were an underdog at home the way people are talking. I think its going to be a 28-24 game.
    Vicki I remember the storm a year ago on the 17th that took a perfect track for snow but with no cold air it was a rainorama. Then a week later on the 22nd the Mid Atlantic gets clobbered and we get grazed. Despite a strong El Nino those were two storms that could have given us good dumpings of snow.

  11. Thank you, TK.

    The upcoming warmth reminds me a little of a period we had at the end of January, beginning of February 2012. I went to DC for a conference that week and it was 70F there. It would not surprise me at all to see a 70F day in DC next week.

    More troublesome is the expansion of warmth northward which will impact the ski areas. Thankfully they’ve got some cold to deal with this weekend. But after Sunday it goes downhill pretty fast.

    I never mind a mild day or two in January, but I feel uncomfortable and unhappy when it’s mild for prolonged stretches in January.

    I think the Patriots will win today, but I doubt it’ll be a blowout. The Texans have a good defensive core, even without Watt. Frankly, I’ll be surprised if the Patriots score over 30 points. My prediction: Pats 24, Texans 13.

    JJ, it’s going to be hard to beat the Packers. They’re on a roll. I do think that will be the most interesting game this weekend. My prediction: Packers 31, Cowboys 27.

    1. I agree with your Packers/Cowboys assessment, but not the Pats-Texans.
      Could be the best game until the Super Bowl.

      re: Pats, My only caveat is that often times when the Pats are heavily favored, they have a stinker of a game and let it get close or sometimes even lose
      the game. BUT even with that caveat and they way the team and Brady
      has been performing lately, I think it will be Pats: 45-13.

  12. Thanks TK !

    Springlike pattern, even aloft, with signs of cutoff lows at 500mb.

    It’s like the EURO hints at a (hybrid type ???) low off of Florida.

  13. I do hope your wrong about the Cowboys Joshua. I do agree with you that game will be the most interesting of the weekend. Of course I remember two years ago playing the Packers in Green Bay and that catch by Dez was over turned which I had a feeling it would when there was that bobble. Everyone looks at that play but I go back to the Demarco Murray fumble earlier in the game when we were leading. If that fumble doesn’t happen and we score there I think its a whole different game.

    1. I honestly think all of these match ups are very good this weekend. I think this texans game will be much closer than people think

  14. The temp in January was actually running right on average until just a couple days ago. We’re not really looking at any record warm month or anything. We’re in a mild pattern overall, which makes sense given the classic La Nina Southeast ridge. There were many that thought just because our El Nino winter was also mild, that La Nina had to be opposite. That’s not how that works. 🙂

    Anyway, we are chilly now, will warm up beyond this weekend, then chill down late month. I’m going to guess the temp will end up not that far off the average, though probably above it, when we reach the conclusion of January.

    Also, a “January thaw” is a bit of a myth. You can apply that theory to every month of the year and find it works about 5 out of 6 times. 🙂

    1. I actually did that on December 29, the night we had the rain to snow event, and I was coming back from seeing Rogue One at the time. 😉

    1. Snow for NNE mountains but little if any for us in most of SNE if I am reading it correctly…also no cold high to the north.

        1. Just got back from Sunapee. They did a good job under the conditions. I could find decent snow in places, esp. along the edges of the trail, and the grooming was a big help. Got a dozen runs in from 8 – 1130 and was glad I did. What I did notice was how little snow is on the ground in the part of western NH. Much less than to the north and east in NE. Snow guns and grooming make the sport manageable these days under otherwise impossible weather patterns.

          1. Nice. I’m really glad they continue to survive. Be willing to bet my brother was up there skiing as well. Do you ski Sunapee often enough to be familiar with the folks who are either ski patrol or hospitality? His first name is Hank.

            1. Not a regular there, Vicki. But there were families all over the place today. A great family mountain.

              I will get back there again this winter and keep my antennae up for Hank. If I find him, I will remind him his sister is a real gem. 🙂

              1. Hahaha. I suspect most on the crew know him well. Last initial is L. I’d love for him to meet you. He would like you!

  18. Jimmy, just curious. Is Dallas also in the path of that upcoming ice storm like Kansas City? Any weather issues in addition to Rodgers?

  19. 12z EURO more believable in long term with cut off low in central US as opposed to off the SE coast. Northern branch of jet stream up at around 65 to 70 North Latitude. Just what you’d expect at the heart of winter.

    1. Was just going to post that. Tk was certainly right on target.
      The Euro burped for 2 runs, but now back to earth indicative of the
      Pacific Jet and the EPO still alive and well.

  20. Philip ice will not be an issue in Dallas. One thing that I like is for Dak Prescott making his postseason debut is he won’t have to deal with the elements as the stadium is indoors.
    Aaron Rodgers were going to have to make sure stays on the bench as much as possible. We need to do what we have done all year get the running game going, control the time of possession, and score. If we could do those things we got a great chance to win. If not it could be a very long day.

    1. Thanks for the info Jimmy. IIRC the old Texas Stadium back when Tom Landry was the coach, they played mostly outdoors but I wasn’t sure if today’s facility was indoors or still outdoors.

      I agree with JPD as I much prefer the Patriots play Dallas in the SB. Rodgers can be even more dangerous than Brady at times. Good luck to your team tomorrow.

  23. Thanks Philip. Should be a good game tomorrow.
    I predicted before the weekend divisional round began that all home teams would win.

  24. Seriously enjoying watching Atlanta and Ryan. I don’t agree with reasoning I’ve heard for MVP but he is awesome to watch

  25. Well it’s clear that my prediction for the first game is not going to be all that accurate. 😉

    1. I figured Atlanta would beat them fairly easily. Atlanta is a better team.
      Green Bay should beat Dallas. Dallas can’t defend middle of the field passes and Rogers can eat them alive. Sorry JJ, just the way I see it. I could be wrong of course.
      KC should beat the Steelers.

  26. We will have earned this trip to the Super Bowl should we beat a Packers team that is playing its best football right now and the Falcons with their offensive fire power. Should we get by Green Bay this Atlanta offense is going to be tough to stop and our defense is okay at best.

  27. The NFC is pretty stacked. That’s a tough road. I’ll be rooting for the Cowboys but the Packers are starting to feel like a team of destiny. Tonight:

    Pats: 30
    Texans: 20

    1. I never buy into the easy win and get squirrely when I hear it, but I said that. If it is…great. But..

  37. Pats were due for a clunker. Worst performance of the season so far. Will have to dig very deep to pull this one out. They can do it, but not the way they’ve played so far.

    1. Patriots underestimated the Texans. But I must say the Patriots also look rusty and are being outplayed in almost every aspect of the game.

      Ostweiler beat them last year. He’s not a great QB, but he’s not as awful as fans in NE made him out to be. And the Texans’ defense is one of the best in the NFL

      1. My reason for not liking bye week. And then top it off by my other fear…..a team everyone says is an easy win

        But we can do it…….

      2. Osweiler stinks. They have points because the pats turned it over on the 20. My grandmother could score with that field position. Pats underestimated houstons defense.

    2. Of course they will. But I am not thrilled that I have to age 20 years for them to do it. I’m too old as is 😉 😉 😉

        1. Hahaha. Thank you. I am aging tonight. I was considering a walk around the block but didn’t want to be joined by the coyotes and bobcat

          Oh dear…another interception. Maybe I’ll risk the neighborhood creatures

    1. Nobody gave the Texans a shot nobody . They have been laughed at all week on sports radio, news , papers etc and they know it. Pats getting tossed around like rag dolls in there house . I’m not saying the outcome because I don’t know but the pats will loose if the second is like the first .

      2. Naw, pats will win the game. Only way they lose, I think, is if they turn the ball overs again. Houston s offense is terrible.

        1. That TD Houston has was because they started inside the 10.
          Pats offense needs to figure out what’s going on and get some more pass protection.

  46. Silly announcers saying how many times they have gone down the field with incredible throws by Brady. They don’t know they have an angel guiding the long balls….sure as heck Brady who could never do it isn’t on his own at 39

      1. Yup. 90 yards executed pretty well. They got some pass protection and got some great routes run by hogan and Edelman

  49. Turnovers, turnovers, turnovers. Hard to win a game turning the ball over. Really hard to win a playoff game with 3 turnovers.

  52. Points for some reason don’t seem to show the game. It was not pretty but it was a playoff game where we have the best so it should not be a walk away and a win is a win

  54. Sloppy game by the patriots. the stuff the patriots struggled on are the exact reasons why I feel the chiefs are the larger threat than the steelers, Now as I post this, steelers are going to go and win tomorrow, and beat the pats or have an extremely close afc championship

  56. Game 1: Shows you how much I knew about Atlanta. 😛
    Game 2: Yes, the Pats struggled in several areas, but let’s not over-react here. It was this game. It means nothing about the next game. Bill will correct the mistakes and they’ll be ready. If they execute the way they are capable, they’ll beat either team they face. If not, well, they’ll either win “by accident” or lose it.

    Weather: Few flakes did make it to Foxboro. Looking ahead to my next update, and well it will look similar to the most recent one.

    Funny ending to my night: I have been driving since 1984. I have never once run out of gas….until tonight, at 2AM…IN my driveway, right after I parked! Dumb luck. I have spare gas in the garage too. The gas gauge is broken on that car and I did not take into account a long idle on 2 days this week. Ran out at 199.9 miles instead of going beyond 225. I usually fill it right at 200 and was planning on going there in the morning.

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