Monday Forecast

118 Comments

7:36AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 16-20)
High pressure remains in control today giving a chilly but bright day. Low pressure approaches from the southwest later Tuesday and redevelops over or just south of the region by early Wednesday. Enough cold air will be left in the region for a period of snow/sleet in higher elevations of mainly north central MA and southwestern NH, and sleet/freezing rain in other portions of central into interior northeastern MA and southern NH, with rain closer to the coast and in areas to the south. Timing of the steadiest precipitation will be Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning, after which just periods of lighter rain/drizzle are expected until the system pulls away by the early hours of Thursday. Thursday itself will be a drying day and this dry weather will then continue through Friday as high pressure returns.
TODAY: Sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind light variable.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-25 interior valleys, 25-32 elsewhere. Wind light SW.
TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 33-40. Wind light SE.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow/sleet/ice central MA and southwestern NH, ice/rain elsewhere with icing most likely central MA and interior northeastern MA and southern NH. Lows 30-38. Wind light E.
WEDNESDAY: Overcast. Rain likely morning with some lingering icing after minor snow accumulation north central MA and southwestern NH. Periods of light rain/drizzle afternoon. Highs 37-44. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Lows 28-35. Highs 38-45.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 20-28. Highs 37-44.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 21-25)
Overall milder temperatures with at least one storm threat, favoring the second half of the period and more likely rain than ice/snow.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 26-30)
Transition toward colder may begin during this period with another storm threat having a stronger possibility of having mix/snow involved, favoring the second half of the period.

118 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

      1. FWIW, The Euro shows 850mb and 925 mb temps remaining
        below freezing throughout the event. YET, Euro show precipitation type as mixed???? and not snow. Let me check 700mb just for kicks. Nope well below freezing there.

  5. Discussion from Taunton

    An over-running setup ahead of low pressure emerging out of the C
    CONUS against a 1030+ high over SE Canada. Focus upon a front-end
    thump with low-mid level isentropic lift of a warm-moist conveyor
    belt of more continental-origin ascending above a shallow surface
    cold dome courtesy of cold air damming. Anticipating an interior
    wintry mix consisting of snow to sleet to freezing rain, possibly
    changing over to all rain, with precipitation onset roughly around
    late Tuesday into Tuesday evening W to E across S New England,
    concluding into Wednesday as low pressure transitions S of New
    England in regions of better baroclinicity and out to sea. Areas
    of greatest concern with regards to ice accretion are across the
    high terrain, namely elevations in excess of 500 feet, definitely
    at or above 1000 feet.

    Some keys to the forecast: 1) Low level thermal profile especially
    at the surface, 2) the presence of ice within the column, and 3) the
    magnitude of lift / forcing upon available moisture. Focus closely
    on a non-GFS consensus and probabilistic guidance for late Tuesday
    into Wednesday morning timeframe.

    To put it simply, the warm intrusion aloft around H8 as the layer
    below down to the surface saturates below-freezing, down to the wet-
    bulb, yields a transition of precipitation across the interior as
    most likely we`re all aware. Greatest concern is for those areas
    of high elevation above 500 ft especially 1000 ft where surface
    temperatures are most likely going to be at or below freezing,
    maintained by a N ageostrophic / isallobaric flow from regions
    with notable snow depth.

    Precipitation falling, and likely transitioning from, sleet and/or
    freezing rain potentially not going over to plain rain throughout
    the entire event across the interior. Some snow is possible at the
    very beginning but feel it will be brief for two reasons: 1) the
    warm intrusion around H8 is already pushing N/E across the region
    into NH at onset of precipitation, and 2) drier air within the mid
    levels is not far behind, eroding moisture within the dendritic
    growth zone around roughly midnight. Mainly rain for the coastal
    plain.

    Continued strong signals among the probabilistic guidance. From CIPS
    analogs there is an increasing signal of a significant freezing
    rain event. EPS/GEFS/SREF signal precipitation onset closer to
    Tuesday evening, targeting higher elevations with the greater
    likelihood of seeing a wintry mix. While the high-res guidance
    targets the high elevations such as the Berkshires, Worcester,
    Litchfield and Tolland Hills, SREF plumes exhibit some chaos with
    respect to precipitation outcomes at point locations. Thus there
    is a level of uncertainty.

    But despite the level of uncertainty, Winter Weather Advisories have
    been issued for Western and Central MA as well as N CT. There has
    been a persistent signal of sleet / freezing rain over the advised
    area by a consensus of forecast guidance and probabilistics. Only
    need a trace of freezing rain to reach advisory criteria.

    Significant ice accretion expected with one to two tenths forecast
    in the Berkshires in agreement with the forecast from WPC. Adverse
    travel impacts accordingly. Also forecasting up to an inch of snow
    and/or sleet accumulation prior to the transition to freezing rain.
    Most of these snow / sleet accumulations across the Berkshires and
    Worcester Hills. Continued concern of ice accretion for those areas
    across the interior that see a change over to rain. Not expected to
    warm quickly and given the likelihood that the ground will be near-
    freezing there is the possibility of continued ice accretion even
    with air temperatures above freezing. Something to keep in mind.

    1. Yup, read that earlier. Interesting situation. They didn’t mention, but
      clearly they are tossing the Euro, yet a seasoned Met like Barry hangs his
      hat on the Euro.

      Someone is going to be very wrong with this event.

    2. Interesting. Thank you for posting. JPD, could be they also come together as the event gets a bit closer??

      1. Always a possibility. We shall see, but we’re running out of time.
        Let’s see what the 12Z guidance shows us. 😀

  7. What the? I’m busy for a few days and I come on here to see the possibility of snow/ice? Gotta love NE! Just a couple days ago there were zero chances of anything frozen for 16+ days

  8. Hello TK. I am seeing some predictions of rain for Saturday. Hoping this will not be the case, as I and my wife will be at the Women’s march in Boston. What do you think?

  9. Well, the 12Z NAM suite supports the thinking of the pros on this blog.

    The Euro appears to be the OUTLIER. Wonder IF the 12Z Euro comes around???

    1. Cooler solution may be credible because the low hits a wall and gets shunted SE of New England. It’s not charging down the st lawrence River valley.

      1. Is warmer air still getting entrained in the upper atmosphere under this scenario or is it leading to more snow vs. mix?

        1. Badly worded on my part. Is the positioning leading to a cooler solution on this run and thus more snow than mix is what I meant..

        2. I think it is initially, but as the storm gets stretched out underneath us, that warming should get shut off and then the column can slowly cool.

  11. Thanks, TK.

    You may have been the only met to suggest several days ago that the warm-up this week would be tempered. I bought what the other mets were selling – very mild temperatures this week. It looks like I was duped once again.

    My question is whether the high pressure area that was supposed to slide underneath us by last night has in fact done so. Judging from being outside a lot today, it doesn’t feel especially mild, which one would get when the high is to our southeast. It feels more or less seasonable.

    JJ, I’m sorry about your team. The Cowboys deserved a better fate. What an heroic comeback. But, Rodgers is the most thrilling quarterback of our generation. Sorry TB fans, while Brady is great I sincerely believe Rodgers is more versatile and dynamic. He makes a pinpoint accurate 35 yard pass downfield on the run (moving to his left!) look effortless. I’ve never seen anything like it. And I’ve been watching football since the early 1970s.

      2. In terms of the Cowboys, You have two parts that will settle down a little for next season and will be right back in the mix, There were some rookie mistakes in that game by the running back and QB that I think with year under their belt and a taste of the playoffs will make them within the next 2 or 4 years being in the super bowl.

        1. The Cowboys will be fine. Certainly in the mix for years to come. DAK looks like the real deal. I spotted a couple of rookie mistakes, but overall he was AWESOME!

    2. Joshua,

      I must admit, I too think that Rodgers is a force. I couldn’t believe
      some of the throws he made, including the one you described.
      Assuming that Pats beat Pittsburg and that is not a given, Rodgers will
      give them fits. Could be a massive shoot out. Whoever has the ball last wins.

      I may be prejudiced here, but I would rank Brady 1 and Rodgers 1a currently. 😀

  12. 12Z Euro keeps the same theme, although snow is a bit less.

    http://imgur.com/a/GwX5j

    Once again 925MB AND 850MB temps are below freezing the whole event
    from a little South of Boston Northwards.

    Likewise, the CMC has 850mb temps below freezing from South of Boston Northward
    the whole event.

    GFS has those lines about 50-75 miles farther North.

  14. I still rank TB number one of all time, because of the incredible longevity. I just think Rodgers is more exciting to watch. He’s an edge-of-your-seat QB who can make anything happen. Brady is a methodical machine.

    I will say that the Cowboys-Packers game was an instant classic. It was football the way it’s supposed to be played. So many of the other playoff games have featured relatively poor play. By contrast, the Cowboys and Packers really treated us to a thriller: It included everything from great running back play to clutch kicks to precision passing.

  15. Two things –

    Brady is the greatest QB of all time based on body of work, but I have never seen a QB play the game at the transcendent level that Rodgers does when he is at his best.

    Snow is still too high in most areas, 10:1 is not happening for any extended period and it won’t accumulate as far south and east as the models are predicting.

    The embedded pockets of cold and warm within each layer is what is going to cause tricky ptype issues and the models will miss this and mets that hug the model output will too. The profiles will not be uniform within the layer itself.

    1. Do what you are saying is that even though a model shows a layer to be
      below freezing, it could be above freezing just above or below that layer
      or at most any level up to a certain point, say about 700 mb.

      So there could be a layer betweeb 925mb and 850 mb that is above freezing?

      Are you looking at soundings? applied meteorology? experience?
      Just curious is all. Tx.

    2. Rodgers has been simply fabulous the past two weeks. A lot of Roger Staubach in his combination of athleticism, improvisation and intelligence.

  16. A third thing-this not a repeat of 2008 for those who are worried. Even in max ice accretion zones. Less QPF, warmer, and warmer still post-storm.

  18. Although not comparable to 2008 are you still thinking a significant impact ice event for some areas or has that lessened?

  19. For a rookie making his postseason start Dak did a very good job. 3 touchdown passes which has never been doing by a rookie starting QB in Super Bowl era. The interception he threw was a rookie mistake. I felt on that play should having given it Elliot to run. I give them credit for coming back down 21-3. The offensive side of the ball were fine. What I would like to see if we trade Romo and I think they will is with the money freed up go out get some pass rushers. We get that will be a complete team. This loss hurts but I do feel this is not a fluke season and the Cowboys will be in the mix for years to come.

  21. Wrong links of EURO I posted but about a week from Tuesday looks like EURO wants to develop a coastal low.

    1. DT is all over it…”**ALERT! ** – High probability of MAJOR WEATHER EVENT FOR CENTRAL & EASTERN US JAN 22-25 — leading to 1st SIGNIFICANT NEW ENGLAND SNOWSTORM JAN 25″

      2. Thanks.

        WOW! For a second I though he said 25″,but alas, it was
        the end of his quotation.

        That’s a long way out there. A wee bit premature, don’t ya think????

  23. DT looked at the 9 day euro solution that shows a big storm on the 25th.
    Jesus, 9 days out.
    That’s fine for posting in here. But for a supposed responsible met to tweet or facebook that kind of stuff out is irresponsible.

      1. People do. He won’t listen to anyone, even if it’s a valid point. He sees anyone with a differing opinion to be a threat and lashes out.

        1. Then perhaps ignore him. I guess I don’t understand why anyone would read what he writes if they don’t find it valid. Isn’t is silly to waste time going there?

  24. There may be a serious flaw with that ECMWF run. Beware the distorted dumbbell pattern. Not even going to worry about p-type other than my initial thought that a threat near January 24 would more likely be rain and one after that would more likely include frozen stuff. But I’m not going to get to a specific date for a second threat in that period, only say I think it comes sometime in the final 5 days of January.

      1. We could manage to get some minor accumulation this far east of we pound precipitation at just the right time. I’m trying to figure that out now. So I’m not really changing anything yet…

  26. In terms of the EURO snow chances. First storm I bet would be more wet like people on here are talking about, but we need that storm as there is no cold high pressure to the north, So the first storm sort of allows for the cold air to be dragged down and be in place for the second storm. Northern New England could get good snow out of that type of pattern as they would get affected by both. If it happened.

    2. yeah I live in Billerica, I go to school at Umass Boston.
      This way I have not need to take out a single loan 😀 Even though I have less hours at MGH, I am now a research assistant at Umass Boston that is giving me more hours and more money. This lab is also going to be supporting costs for my honors research project that I’ll be doing on Nantucket this summer at the same locaton that I had my summer class last summer.

      My research project could be a foundation for my grad work and for other project formations for the lab.
      How Climate change is affecting invasive and native species interactions. Its very vague and will need to become more concentrated but its a start lol

      1. “How Climate change is affecting invasive and native species interactions of seagrass habitats. * I forgot the seagrass habitat part.

  31. WPC continues to prefer a blend of the ECMWF/UKMET/GFS

    SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE NRN ROCKIES/NRN PLAINS SUN NIGHT/MON
    INTERACTION WITH THE SHORT WAVE TRACKING FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO
    THE MIDWEST MON/TUE
    SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND WED
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    PREFERENCE: 12Z ECMWF/UKMET/GFS
    CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

    THE 12Z NAM SHOWS SOME KNOWN BIAS WITH THIS SHORTWAVE…SUPPORTING
    A STRONG CONCENTRIC CENTER THAT DEEPENS SOUTH A BIT TOO MUCH
    BECOMING NOTICEABLY SLOWER TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN GREAT
    LAKES/OHIO RIVER VALLEY LEADING TO A MORE ELONGATED WEAKER AND
    FURTHER NORTH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST NEW
    ENGLAND COAST. THE 12Z GFS WHILE LOOKING MORE PRESENTABLE WITH
    THE 00Z/06Z RUNS REDUCING THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WAVE CLOSER TO
    CONSENSUS KEEPS THE WEAKER WAVE BUT SHOWS SOME TYPICAL GFS FAST
    BIAS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND WED. THE ECMWF/ECENS MEAN CONTINUE
    STRONG CONSISTENCY WITH LITTLE INDICATION OF A CHANGE IN
    OBSERVATION TO NOT KEEP PREFERRING IT. THE 00Z UKMET WHILE NOT
    IDEALLY LOCKED TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS QUITE CLOSE IN
    TIMING/STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
    LOW TO ADD IT TO THE WPC PREFERENCE OF THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET.
    CONFIDENCE REMAINS SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.

    19Z UPDATE: THE 12Z ECMWF/UKMET BOTH ARE SLIGHTLY FASTER AS WELL
    WITH THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE WAVE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES WITH
    THE UKMET ABOUT HALF WAY BETWEEN THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF. THIS
    BRINGS MORE CONSIDERATION FOR THE INCLUSION OF THE FASTER
    GFS…BUT WILL CONTINUE TO WEIGHT THE ECMWF/UKMET HIGHER IN A
    BLEND WITH THE GFS. THIS SHOULD BRING A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE AS
    WELL. AS SUCH A 12Z ECMWF/UKMET/GFS BLEND AT AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

    http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd

    I highly recommend reading that discussion whenever there are model differences with a system.

      1. I always read it to A) get their take on how each model is performing with the system, B) see which way they are leaning, and C) how confident they are in that solution.

          1. So does all that lean to more or less snow? I did read it but don’t get the various references to models. Thanks!

      2. Cool, that’s quick research, Vicki.

        Did the Pats beat the Dolphins once in the 70s on a snowy afternoon on a John Smith field goal, 3-0?

      1. I remember the English kicker John Smith. If I recall correctly he did commercials for Weetabix (British product).

        I liked a lot of the Patriots back in the 70s and 80s, including Grogan, Morgan, Haynes, Hannah, Francis, Tippett, …

  36. Regarding the “snowplow” game, IIRC in Boston it was more of a sleet/snow mix and mostly snow in Foxboro. Unfortunately no local tv for that game.

  37. Once again we could be looking at a very tight snow gradient, though not as widespread since the max amounts would not be all that high. I’m leaning to a coating 95’s northeast corridor (Woburn to southern Maine), an inch or 2 495’s northeatsern corridor (Pike to about Lawrence), 2-4 Worcester to Monadnock area to maybe Manchester NH, 4-8 north of there. The belt of icing should run from the southern Maine and NH Seacoast to Lawrence/Lowell to Fitchburgh to Worcester but this may shift a little either way east or west and since it’s critical, keep a close eye on it. Once you get into immediate Boston area to south central MA and southward from there, it’s mainly a rain event with maybe brief mix at the end.

    1. Thank you TK. Special thanks for including south central MA. It is always difficult to tell what we might receive here

  38. I believe TK alluded to this just yesterday, the potential return of El Nino this summer (very likely in a much weaker form than the recent event)…

    Philip Klotzbach
    ‏@philklotzbach
    Approximately 70% of ensemble members from latest ECMWF model run calling for #ElNino by July.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C2TIO-wWIAUGPog.jpg

    Our weak La Nina has peaked. Not a very noteworthy event, and I was a little surprised how weak it was given that strong El Nino events are often, though not always, followed by at least a moderate La Nina. Early indications were that we were heading down that road. Instead, just a brief, weak event, but it did act to configure the atmosphere in a La Nina-like state for this winter.

    Weak El Nino events tend to have much different local impacts than strong events.

      1. I am not surprised that we are in more of an El Niño pattern given the persistent SE Ridge and Great Lakes Cutters. Below normal snowfall is a sure bet now.

  39. TK – 5-2 in the NFL would require a LOT of “Men Without Hats.”

    I think you have said your a fellow music buff and maybe a fellow pastlife DJ (like me) so I am absolutely certain you know what I mean!

    1. I would be curious if there ever was an NFL game with that exact score. The NFL goes back to 1920 if I am not mistaken. If it did occur, likely in the very early years of the league.

  40. OK, now everything has backed off re: tonight

    That was fun for a while.

    What’s next? all I see is a parade of cutters. hope some of those change down the road.
    All the way to 2/2 and beyond!!!

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