Saturday Forecast

81 Comments

2:21AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 21-25)
Weak high pressure holds over the region today and clouds break apart for some sun and air that is quite mild for late January. A cold front will pass through from north to south early Sunday, returning cloudiness to the region along with colder, more damp air from the Maritimes of Canada. While this is going on, a broad low pressure area will be moving east northeast through the Tennessee Valley, heading for the Northeast. It will elongate slightly and redevelop south of New England during Monday and Monday night, then track north northeastward with the new center passing southeast to east of New England during Tuesday before moving away Wednesday. This system will have a long duration and significant impact on the region with wind and mainly rain, although some snow/sleet/freezing rain will be involved as well for a part of the storm on Monday as the air will be just cold enough. The greatest threat for snow will be outside I-495 and north of the Mass Pike in MA and southwestern NH. This region will also likely see some sleet. Some snow and more likely sleet may mix in as far east as the I-95 belt closer to the Boston/Providence corridor as well during Monday afternoon. The greatest threat for freezing rain would be near Route 2 in north central MA up into southwestern NH when precipitation falls as rain Monday evening. By Tuesday, both surface and aloft should be warm enough for plain rain and it should remain this way from then on.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy morning. Mostly sunny afternoon. Highs 47-54. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 30-38. Wind light W.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind shifting to NE 5-15 MPH inland, 10-20 MPH coast, higher gusts South Coast.
MONDAY: Snow/sleet to ice/rain northern and central MA and southern NH, rain/sleet to rain elsewhere. Temperatures steady 32-40. Windy.
TUESDAY: Rain tapering to drizzle. Lows 32-40. Highs 40-48. Windy.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Lows 28-35. Highs 40-48.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 26-30)
Mild January 26 with a weak system passing north of the region bringing the risk of rain showers. Colder air arrives by January 27 with mainly dry weather or a few snow showers. Still watching for a possible threat of snow or snow showers during the weekend January 28-29. Fair, colder at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 31-FEBRUARY 4)
A more seasonable chill as February arrives. A couple systems may bring the risk of snow showers otherwise mainly dry.

81 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  2. Thanks TK! The fact that you are now mentioning snow showers as opposed to snow next weekend (28-29) does that mean that the potential storm could be suppressed to the south?

    2. It was always on the table but no it doesn’t indicate any particular leaning at 7 to 8 days prior.

      1. Cool map, thanks !! And …. it’s early morning, I could understand a bit better if this were mid afternoon.

  6. Thanks TK. I echo Tom’s observation. Impressive pattern, though not in the way we would normally think of a winter pattern as impressive. The persistence of this warmth will be what’s memorable for me.

  7. Thanks TK.

    Nice map JPD…my limited understanding tells me cold air is blocked elsewhere. But if it is too early for Tom to fully understand, I have no hope for me

      1. And the 4KM nam, not complete

        http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2017012112/nam4km_asnow_neus_21.png

        btw the 4KM NAM wants to keep it cold at 850MB at least
        until 7PM on Monday.

        Is this now going to get interesting? OR is the NAM up to its old tricks. Pay no attention to that model behind the curtain???

        We shall see. IF we can get that colder air to build in and hang in there, then inland snows are possible. Probably boundary layer issues near the coast.

  11. I have 3.2″ of precip for the month. After this week, I should come in above normal for the month.

  12. The 12z GFS follows the 00z GFS in projecting a heavy bullseye of rainfall in northeast Mass. It’s kind of interesting because just south of New England, there’s a projected area of lighter precip. So, I’m thinking this might be some kind of localized feature, like seen in snow events, that focuses convergence in a certain area.

      1. Thinking about it some, the area of lower precip is probably under the projected sfc low track and the max precip bullseye is probably on the west side of the strong easterly 850mb jet.

        I’d be alerting Boston and the north shore to the possibility of 3 or more inches of rainfall.

  13. It would be nice if 4k and 3k NAM verified for my area since that would be a good dumping of snow. To me its slim and none and slim has left town.

  15. 58 degrees. Beautiful spring day!
    I just threw all the windows open downstairs and the back door (opened the glass on the storm door).

    1. I’m siting in the living room by an open window, short sleeves, drinking coffee. Threw the kids out to get some fresh air. Went to Walmart earlier and saw people in flip flops. Now THIS is how to run a winter.

  16. Anyone have any thoughts on timing of heavier precip.in Boston area Sun Nite /Mon.or more like later day Mon.

    1. Monday dusk to midnight is my current thought. May adjust slightly but don’t expect to make any big changes.

  22. FWIW, the 12Z Euro has come in a little colder than last night’s 0Z.
    Keeps more snow up North and Well inland in MA. Atill Next to nothing still on the
    coast.

  23. Snow threat very much on the table for weekend (28-29). Apply week-away meteorological logic here.

  25. What a day . On my way to the Hanover mall I saw cars being washed , leaf raking , runners & walkers in t- shirt & shorts . This afternoon just has that spring look to it. What a winter again as this seems to be the new norm .

    1. It’s not really the new norm, just the pattern that was expected for a good part of early to mid winter. Southeast ridge, mild southern New England with lack of snow. There are a few changes down the road.

      1. I guess what I meant is beside the bad winter two yrs ago the winters here seem warmer and not as harsh.

    2. Sign me up. I’ll take a D.C./Baltimore /N. Virginia climate any day of the week and twice on Sunday.

  26. Thanks, TK.

    Spring in January. Not what I like to hear or feel. If I sweat profusely in January there’s a problem. And today I’m overheated and uncomfortable. Feels like winter is slipping away like sand through my fingers. I’m not optimistic about a real return to winter, other than a few cold spells. Oh well, it’s weather and there’s nothing we can do about it.

    2. I agree with Winter slipping away, but sweating I am not. Other than the fact
      that I would like a snow storm, this weather is beautiful.

  29. If it’s not snowing, this kind of weather is definitely my second choice for January. Absolutely beautiful outside today.

    Meanwhile, a Flood Watch is up for eastern MA and all of RI with around 1-3″ of rain on the way from our storm. Also a High Wind Warning for the Cape. We’ve been chipping away at our drought for awhile; now we’re going for something closer to a knockout blow, although it won’t quite be that. We’ll be helped by the fact that the ground isn’t frozen though, and the reservoirs will get a nice drink.

    1. The ground hasn’t really been frozen in SNE in over 2 years at least. I don’t consider the ground frozen 12 inches for less than a month or 2 really frozen. I saw water flowing over some spillways this morning on some local ponds. Very little ice cover.

  31. This is the nadir of winter. From now till about Valentine’s Day. After that, the days get longer at a faster rate, sun angle gets heigher, jet stream wavelengths begin their slow trek towards shortening up, and it gets harder to get sustained deep cold. Obviously we can and do get arctic air in march, it just gets harder to do.
    I see nothing in the teleconnectors that scream deep winter. The AO was pegged to go to -5 SD a couple weeks ago. That didn’t work out. Looks positive out as far as 15 days. The PNA looks to flip negative soon. The NAO is positive. The only one that looks cold is the EPO. That flips negative the end of the week. So maybe it gets colder into the first part of February. By cold I mean normal highs of mid to upper 30’s and lows in the 20’s. Normal for the nadir of winter.
    The “look” towards the end of next week in terms of temperature, 500 mb flow and heights, and vortmax could be conducive to some snow with a well timed short wave. We’ll see. Our old friend the SE ridge won’t be there either so….maybe. I think we see that feature return sooner rather than later.
    That storm on the GFS out 2 weeks is fantasy at best. Maybe it’s there in a week maybe not.
    Still lots of time left for winter. 2/3rds left to go. It just gets tougher to get deep, harsh winter in about 5 weeks.

    1. We will see if Vicki’s inner radar verifies. And I agree with lack of frozen ground for a couple of years. Used to be impossible to pull the stakes holding the Christmas decorations out of the ground. Not so much lately.

        1. Me too and I’m just a weak woman. Although the rods for my teak isle manger bent at ground level and I reversed them and that side tent also. Was of course from holding it against wind so somethings was hard enough to keep them from just pulling out

    2. I just noticing this afternoon as I was out around sunset.

      IT was still light close to 5PM. We’re rapidly moving in the right direction. 😀

  32. well, look at this large difference between sites
    Nam. Tropicaltidbits (T) vs Pivotalweather (P)

    3km (T)
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2017012118&fh=60

    3km (P)
    http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam3km&p=sn10_acc&rh=2017012118&fh=60&r=us_ne&dpdt=
    http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam3km&p=snku_acc&rh=2017012118&fh=60&r=us_ne&dpdt=

    4KM (T)
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2017012118/nam4km_asnow_neus_21.png

    4KM(P)
    http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=sn10_acc&rh=2017012118&fh=60&r=us_ne&dpdt=
    http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=snku_acc&rh=2017012118&fh=60&r=us_ne&dpdt=

    some reason tropicaltidbits have much higher amounts for the same model. Pivotal matches the precipitation profile much better than Tropicaltidbits

  33. Tk I am giving an estimate in the morning for construction debris removal I was wondering how Monday is looking meaning is the storm all day Monday or is it Monday night .

  34. I agree with Blackstone’s assessment of our short and medium term winter outlook. Will we even get a cold stretch in February like we did during last year’s otherwise very mild winter? Probably not. Certainly last year and this year share one thing in common: Absolutely no winter trough in January.

    I do understand how people can enjoy today’s spring preview. If winter is not your thing then this year’s been great. In my case I do have the fond memories of late January to late February 2011, as well as a similar time period in 2015.

  35. First post from brand new Windows 10 computer with 12GB of memory.
    I was running on an old Windows XP machine with 2GB of memory. UGH!!

    1. I can tell the difference just from seeing the post. 🙂
      Okemo was good today. Nice soft power in mild temps. I wish I could have seen more of the mountain in the fog. The trails were very good, as you indicated. Never too wide. Lots of them.
      It is high tech these days. Fast chairs – one with six heated seats and a plastic bubble to pull over you if you choose. A bit much for me
      But some simple lifts on parts of the mountain as well.
      No Poma Lift!

      1. Do they computers have an invisibility cloak attached. I see nothing. 😉

        MassBay glad your day was good

    1. Good post. Thanks. Mac’s cousin and a really good friend of mine thinks highly of Cliff Mass. Let’s hope

  37. Awful lot of active tornado warnings in the south this evening. Cluster on the Arkansas/Louisiana border, a few more in east central Louisiana and one in the panhandle of Florida.

  38. nam snowfall on tropicaltidbits still way off, Look at pivotals output for what its really showing. I have no idea what tropicaltidbits are trying to pull

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