Monday Forecast

200 Comments

7:34AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 23-27)
No big changes. Broad low pressure coming off the Mid Atlantic Coast bumps into high pressure centered north of New England and brings and significant wind and precipitation (mostly rain) event to the region through Tuesday. A break followed Wednesday. Weak low pressure passes north of the region Thursday then colder air arrives Friday.
TODAY: Overcast. Spotty rain/snow/sleet. Highs 35-43. Wind NE to E increasing to 15-25 MPH, gusts 35-50 MPH by late in the day especially coastal MA/RI.
TONIGHT: Overcast. Rain, heavy at times, but some sleet/snow mixed in north central MA and southwestern NH with minor accumulation. Temperatures steady 35-43. Wind NE 15-35 MPH, gusts 45-60 MPH, strongest along the coast.
TUESDAY: Overcast. Rain likely, becoming more intermittent but with drizzle continuing later in the day. Patchy fog. Highs 39-47. Wind NE to N 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 32-40. Highs 40-48.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows 35-42. Highs 45-52.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers. Lows 26-33. Highs 36-43.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 28-FEBRUARY 1)
Risk of snow/mix at some point over the weekend of January 28-29. Mainly fair January 30-31. Risk of snow/mix February 1. Temperatures near normal.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 2-6)
Rain/mix possible early period then mainly dry weather. Temperatures near to below normal.

200 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

    1. It says they frantically tried to warn residents. I watched the game but was distracted a few times. Did they break in to announce this?

      1. I have a few friends in Florida and I do know that they were getting all kinds of warnings while watching the games.

        1. Perhaps the warnings were area specific. And perhaps they did break in during the Atlanta game and I simply missed it.

      1. It sure is so sad, JPD. I don’t know the demographics of the area. One couple survived in their mobile home thankfully. It could be a lot of mobile homes in the area…or not. I would have thought there would have been announcement after announcement during the game knowing that many in GA would be watching. And it is entirely possible there was and I missed it.

    1. All ocean effect snow and unrelated to this evening’s storm :D. Very typical prior to the arrival of a noreaster.

        1. Yes. It may be a slightly different than ocean effect in
          the traditional sense, but for all practical purposes, yes.

          In looking at 925 and 850mb flow, it is straight off of
          the ocean as is the surface flow. Combine it all, and
          we get some precipitation. I don’t see any obvious convergence zones in that flow, however, just that moist
          flow being lifted over the land is enough to produce what is coming down. IF it were colder…….

  8. Right at 33.5 here with very fine wind driven snow. Wind has been consistent since yesterday out of the NE. The flag I watch has pretty much been straight out.

      1. Looks pretty good to me.

        I am just wondering If there is “just” enough there
        to produce more snow and/or sleet a bit farther South
        than previously predicted.

        Watching the 850mb 0C line on model runs.

        Latest 12Z NAM moves it “just” North of Boston and then
        it STOPS for a good long while before marching Northward
        again. However, the HRRR insists on moving it North of Boston fairly early on like about 5 or 6PM today at the same time keeping the 925mb 0C line SOuth of Boston until
        at least 1Am tomorrow or later. Is the cold layer below 850MB
        and above the surface thick enough to support sleet? IF not,
        then just plain ole RAIN which is what is forecast.

        I am NOT predicting it, but I think there is some wiggle room
        for a surprise, at least as far South as the Boston area.
        Probably not, but I can dream can’t I? 😀

    3. Looking at that map under ordinary conditions one would expect a SNOW
      storm. Oh well, such is the nature of this Winter.

  10. When I left the house this morning around 7am it was 32 degrees, snowing with about a half an inch of snow on the ground…drove about 2 miles south in Georgetown and there wasn’t much at all

  12. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WIND
    ADVISORY…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM
    EST TUESDAY.

    * LOCATION…NORTHERN CONNECTICUT…RHODE ISLAND AS WELL AS
    SOUTHWEST…CENTRAL AND EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS

    * WINDS…NORTHEAST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH.

    * TIMING…WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
    OCCURRING TONIGHT.

    * IMPACTS…THESE WINDS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DOWNING AND FEW TREES
    AND POSSIBLY RESULT IN ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.

    http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=box&wwa=wind%20advisory

    1. Thanks, JPD.

      Our wires are underground. You think the neighbors will mind if I dig up a few to expose them? Some of them might like power outages also???

      Of course, the transformers,etc. leading to our neighborhood are not underground so one can hope!

      1. I for one, do NOT like power outages. I hate them.
        1 advantage to an outage in Winter:

        One can also place food outside or “usually” able to grab some snow and place in cooler.

        Disadvantage: House get really cold and IF it is cold enough danger of bursting pipes.

        In any season, I do NOT like power outages. I find them
        to be a major nuisance at best and at worst a colossal inconvenience or downright dangerous.

  13. This from an article on WHDH. Goes along with what both TK and JJ said yesterday….

    While the central part of the U.S. has a fairly defined tornado season — the spring — the risk of tornadoes “never really goes to zero” for most of the year in the southeast, said Patrick Marsh of the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma.

    January tornado outbreaks are rare but not unprecedented, particularly in the South. Data from the Storm Prediction Center shows that, over the past decade, the nation has seen an average 38 tornadoes in January, ranging from a high of 84 in 2008 to just four in 2014.

    The last time the prediction center issued a high-risk weather outlook — where forecasters are very confident of a tornado outbreak — was in 2014. Sunday marked only the third time since 2000 that any part of Florida had been at a high-risk for severe weather, Marsh said.

    “This is a pretty rare event in this location,” Marsh said.

  15. Pretty impressive slug of SNOW out there right now. Wind blown, coming down side ways. It looks Awesome. Way too wet/warm to accumulate, but It looks nice. 😀

  17. Quick peak at the latest HRRR model run on cod site is aggressive with frozen precipitation for the interior of CT and MA between 9am-2am.

  18. Sitting at home this morning in Andover on an early call, watching the snow come and go through the window… goes from really heavy for 5 minutes, to almost nothing, and then back again… for about 3 hours now. Its only put down less than an inch though…

  20. 4k NAM and regular NAM more wet than frozen for the interior. Will see if HRRR stays course with its next run.

  23. 12z 3km NAM comment… Obviously the map is still totally messed up, even worse now than it has been. We figure it’s because of sleet being factored in. Thing is, it doesn’t even show sleet in some of these places. Look at the station in northern RI that the map is showing with 8″ of snow; then look through the simulated radar products. No sleet to be found, just rain. I literally have no idea how it could come up with that number. Dividing by 10 isn’t nearly enough there; you’d have to divide by infinity, lol 🙂

    Similar problem shows up on other maps, especially with any of the WRF guidance.

    1. As dear friends of ours always say: “It’s a Mystery”

      You certainly make valid points.

      I am still concerned that we “may” have more sleet than forecast.

      Will continue to monitor. Certainly for inland locations it is likely
      to be messy evening.

  24. JPD….you are so right. This is great fun to watch. Tjammer…it is difficult for me to look away from the window. Enjoy! We had sun try to break through but the ice grey clouds prevailed. I was out for a bit bringing in the trash and recycling barrels before they blew over. I love the feel of the air and wind this morning.

    As I type the sun is trying very hard to peek through again but just cannot seem to get it done!

  26. If I am not mistaken, the 12Z GFS is a little colder.
    850 0C line passes through Boston between 6Z and 9Z tomorrow AM.

    This “could” open the door for Sleet in the City all evening until some time
    after midnight. WILL that happen? who knows. Something to watch.

  31. 15Z HRRR wants to push the Sleet inland somewhat farther, perhaps by 20 or 30 miles which it fairly significant. Wonder what it saw?

    1. here as well. It is so fine that I had to look really hard. It is also just about horizontal. Although we had a coating around 7:30, that is long gone and nothing more is sticking.

  36. To think we might get nearly 3 inches of qpf here in eastern mass and little or nothing in terms of frozen type. Big ughhhh

    1. hmmmm – interesting wording. Are you asking if perhaps the storm is on track and you are slowing down or ………..

      😉

        1. Seriously, though, my uneducated guess would be that if it slows down even a little and spins in the same place, that will not be good for that area.

    2. Onset is a town in Massachusetts near the Cape Cod Canal and Buzzards Bay. 😀

      Seriously, HRRR has the real action commencing right around 7PM which
      is pretty much on schedule.

  39. So are we still on for the storm tonight with both the heavy rains and wind ( timing ) I also will be traveling into Boston tomorrow around 9am is it still cranking than .

  41. The other thing I’d like to throw out there ….

    Seems the models projected pressures are a bit lower today than they have been in previous days.

    Ex : I thought a few days ago, the pressure of the storm was projected to be 992mb when it got off of the NJ coast and now, it seems to be projected at 988mb.

    Looked at the latest observations in NJ, the winds are pretty strong …. sustained 25 to 35 mph, gusting between 35 and 50 mph.

    1. Perhaps so, but moving that tight to the coast just kills it for us.
      It’s brutal. Could be pretty windy later this evening and overnight.

      I just came in about 1/2 hour ago and in the City it is pretty windy
      even at this hour.

      2. Oh, I wasn’t implying how that helps or doesn’t help for frozen precip. I am more focused on the impacts on the wind.

        Definitely time for inland areas to see some frozen initially. Worcester is 29F and inland, the dewpoints are in the mid-upper 20s, so I’d guess sleet/ice pellets or snow inland from the ocean a ways is going to be in play for a bit.

  48. So up here the off and on rain/snow showers have been around all day. Most of the time they have been snow showers, some have been rain showers. All ocean-effect.

    1. They have been off and on here, mostly off. 😀
      However, when on, they have been snow. (of course I could have missed
      a rain shower here or there)

      I would love to see at least the beginning of the main event be snow.
      Models were forecasting this on/off snow activity to be Rain by about 2 PM
      this afternoon. WRONG on that account.

      Models say it will warm aloft just in time for the main event.
      What if they miss by a few hours?

      I guess, we’ll know for certain a bit later.

    2. Exactly the same here, TK. And it is, as I said early, horizontal snow. I was just out again simply because I wanted to be out. The wind is awesome. It feels like the wind when you go out to shovel as the storm starts to wind down. Only then there are inches of snow.

  50. My wife wants to go out to the Natick Mall after dinner tonight. I told her
    that it would be close. Rain in the city with “possible” sleet out there.

    She doesn’t want to go if it is sleeting, but doesn’t mind if it is just rain.

    Me, I don’t care either way.

    Any thoughts?

    2. Wouldn’t get me to go. I worry far more about the other driver than I do about myself. That said, if the roads are icy, no one really has control.

        1. Would not have bothered me one bit in younger days. I am at the point in my life that what doesn’t get done today will get done at some point so why take a chance. Also, the younger folks….and I don’t mean this as an insult….seem to think every time an older person has an accident that licenses should be revoked at 70 (that may be an exaggeration) or maybe not 🙁

          1. NOT at 70 for sure. Please.

            At some point, I think proper testing should be conducted. Not sure what that point is.
            It is so highly variable from individual to individual, virtually impossible to put an age
            on it.

            My GrandFather totally lost the ability to drive
            by age 85. We have a friend who is 80 who
            has no problem whatsoever. My wife’s uncle
            was driving without issue at 90.

            I’ll bet there are people that have no business driving at 65????

            Really a tough one. But I agree the youngins
            would like the plug pulled at a certain age.

  51. Moderate to heavy sleet is murder on untreated roads. We don’t see it too often here, thankfully.

    I believe the short range guidance may be overdoing the sleet, though.

    1. I guess we’ll know pretty soon on that front.

      What do you think about sleet possibilities on the Framingham/Natick line
      around 7:30 to 9:30 PM? Tx.

        1. Thanks TK. I appreciate that.

          I WANT to see that, so now I have to convince my
          wife that ALL will be well IF we choose to go. 😀

  55. The depiction of sleet on the HRRR should be interpreted this way: The eastern half of the zone will be rain/sleet mix, leaning one way or another alternately. The western half of the zone will be more sleet-dominated.

  56. So since they have decided to leave the “includes sleet” in the NAM snow maps for tropical tidbits but neglected to remember the ratio of sleet:rain is quite different than the ratio of snow:rain, the maps continue to be royally messed up and should be ignored.

  57. BZ in scituate. Hope all goes well for the many on here from the south shore. At least it tide is astronomically low.

  60. Just put the trash out. I can tell you 3 things:
    1. It is plain ole RAIN here at the moment.
    2. It is WINDY as hell here. I haven’t seen it this windy in a long time. My wind equipment is sheltered from this wind by trees and my house, so I don’t have
    anywhere close to reasonable wind data. Based on what I saw and felt, steady wind at
    about 25 mph with gusts approaching 40 mph.
    3. Still 37 Degrees here.

    1. It’s so very hard to tell how much cold air is in a fairly thin layer up a few thousand feet. We’ll know soon.

      1. Agree. That is why I kept saying IF the layer is thick enough, then sleet, else rain (or freezing rain where temps below 32).

        So far, just RAIN here. The storm precip is virtually upon me, so we’ll see shortly.

    1. Hey it looks like not too long from now (spring sometime) I’ll be taking a ride down to Manchester CT for the first time in a while!

      1. We have Mac’s Marklin train set from when he was a kid. His dad had it set up on two ping pong tables. When kids were young the only place we could find Marklin was Manchester, CT

  63. 0.14″ of rain, 35 degrees
    3.40″ for the month. Should go above avg for the month by tomorrow night

  64. I was going to sit on deck but it is precipitating. So I have window next to me wide open. Great night. Also made crab cakes and those people upstairs says it smells like fish down here.

  65. Storm Precipitation is here. Best I can tell NO SLEET, just plain ole rain.
    Could be that’s it, but slight chance it’s a boundary layer issue and the column
    is cold enough for snow now and will transition to sleet later. OR that’s it and the
    layer is too thin and it will be nothing but rain.

    Will know really soon. I suspect just rain.

  66. It’s MIXING now. I do NOT hear sleet, so for the moment it appears to be mixing
    with snow. We shall see.

  67. When driving around town this evening, snowing northern areas with a mix of rain and snow, I have not seen sleet yet. Really breezy at the town center

  71. Built up a 1.8 ft storm surge at this point. Height of tide should be 8.2 ft and it’s at 10ft. The good news is the tide is now going out.

    12 ft to 13 ft usually initiates minor flooding. After 13 ft, flooding becomes moderate.

    Tomorrow morning at 8:30, the tides’ height is 9.4 ft but they are expecting about a 3 ft surge, which would be 12.4 ft along with big waves.

  72. Sleet has started in Wilmington. Maybe a little snow mixing in. Radar shows all snow, but true line is probably somewhere around 495 by my guess.

  79. Heavy sleet in Manchester, CT. Everything is coated white. I am working late tonight and just ran out to get something to eat. Roads are horrendous! I was fishtailing in my SUV in 4 wheel drive!

  80. Radar looks as if rain moving west. If this keeps up here I can see some late school starts.

    I didn’t think it wss on roads here but some idiot just went fishtailing all over our road

  81. mix of sleet/snow and rain in my area of town. Friend by the lake says its sleeting. I have a few friends that send me updates through town and a cousin up in Tempelton ma

  84. I was going to post that if this keeps up, it will be a really bad in am. Except rain seems to be moving west at a good rate

  85. Just picked up my kid from hockey practice, moderate snow downtown Andover, with a little mix, and closer to Nirth Reading border is is everything- snow, rain, sleet, wind.

  87. Judah Cohen ‏@judah47 · 5h5 hours ago
    Evolving #polarvortex disruption will bring a return of #snow and #cold temperatures to Eastern US but for how long?

      1. I think he has that set up on his Twitter as a recurring auto post every Monday…..

        There is some truth to it though – we are approaching that ~Jan 25 timeframe which has been progged on the models for awhile as the time when we transition to a colder pattern with some snow chances.

  89. Check out these ridiculous snow totals from Mammoth Mtn in California this month!

    http://media-mammothresorts-com.s3-website-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/mmsa/patrol/pages/StormSummary/16-17StormSummary.htm

    The latest storm the past 3 days dropped 72″. The storm late last week dropped 27″ and the storm before that dropped 66″. And the first two storms of the month dropped 32″ and 42″.

    They have 330″ on the year already and its only Jan 23. This is the most they have had since 1970. The main ski lodge is closed for the second straight day. They are literally losing business because there is too much snow.

  91. Had a heavy mix of SNOW from 10PM to 11 PM.
    Now pretty heavy sleet coming down with a touch of snow mixed in.

    36 here

    1. Well, that didn’t last long. Now plain ole rain. I can’t see or hear any more
      sleet as I could previously. Oh well, saw more than expected. 😀

  92. Moderate-heavy sleet when I left work. Sidewalks slippery in spots…almost slipped myself. Streets just wet. I can’t recall a straight sleet event from beginning to end so I don’t know for sure if roads themselves ice up with time like snow or freezing rain. If JPD and others say otherwise via experience then I certainly believe it.

  94. Wind blown moderate sleet continues in Coventry CT. 32.4 degrees. 1.5″ of sleet on the ground. Storm has been entirely sleet here. Looking like school delays or even cancellations here today as roads are terrible.

  95. The last big sleet storm like this that I can remember here was the Valentines Day storm in 2007. We had maybe 3″ of snow followed by 2-3″ of sleet. It was nearly impossible to shovel or snowblow.

  96. I was trying to remember last time I saw this much sleet accumulate and that Valentines Day storm you mentioned Mark came to my mind.

  99. Hmmm

    Not so much rain. 1.04 inches here and winding down.
    wind was nice
    39 and 994 mb

    a nice little storm, but nothing spectacular, except perhaps inland sleet.

  101. We could really hear the sleet coming down during the night. I haven’t heard that much sleet and for so long in many years. I don’t know; it seems when I was younger we used to get more sleet storms. Anyway, w/the exception of the wind – it was quite a sleet storm here in Sudbury.

  102. Very windy night last night. Definitely have to credit the HRRR for this one. It was a little too aggressive with the southeastward extent of heavy sleet, but this ended up being a sleet-storm from 495 outwards.

    Checking the observing sites, the rain came in a little short of expectations for most areas. Some pockets of over 2″ on the Cape, most areas in eastern MA 1-2″. All in all, a classic Nor’easter.

  103. New post. Killer headache. Short forecast. Will expand thoughts a bit later.

    Good day all!

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