Tuesday Forecast

66 Comments

7:36AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 24-28)
Storm continues to impact the region today then makes a slow exit tonight and early Wednesday. A weaker low pressure area passes north of the region Thursday. The end of the week turns somewhat colder.
TODAY: Overcast. Periods of rain, some mix north central MA and southwestern NH. Highs 33-44, coldest north central MA and southwestern NH and mildest South Coast. Wind NE to N 15-30 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Temperatures steady 33-44. Wind NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts, diminishing overnight.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Lows 38-45. Highs 46-53.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Highs 38-45.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 18-25. Highs 32-40.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 29-FEBRUARY 2)
Colder during this period with snow showers possible at times.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 3-7)
Cold early in the period, then moderating somewhat. Mainly dry weather to start. Snow/mix threat increases later in the period.

66 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

    1. Just caught up to last night. TK sorry about headache. I woke up with a very little one and wondered if pressure change was cause. Feel better.

  3. Thanks TK hope you feel better. Somehow got around 4 inches in Sterling in spite of hearing sleet clinging off the windows all night.

  5. Thanks TK…hope the headache goes away real fast.

    Is the weekend disturbance that was mentioned off the table now?

  6. Good morning again and thank you TK.

    I must have missed it, but Hope you are feeling better.

    re: Kitchen Bowling
    I “presume” it was Kitchen Candle Pin based on the scores. 😀
    I don’t see how it was kitchen 10-pin, unless you both suck.

    In high school we used to bowl in the basement of 2 different classmates.
    AND, we had Real candle pins and bowling bowls courtesy of the local bowling alley.
    (they were going to discard them for new ones)
    I threw the ball so hard one time that it smashed against the foundation wall
    and split the ball in 1/2.

  9. Thanks TK and feel better.
    Sleet is no picnic to drive in as I found last night coming home from work. I have not seen this much sleet accumulate since the Valentine’s Nor’easter of 2007.

    1. Glad you got home safely. Son said driving into Boston this am was not great and he rarely will say driving is bad. In addition to sleet, slush tends to like to take your car where it wants it to go.

  10. Thanks Vicki. I had both hands on the steering wheel tight. I went from heavy rain and wind to heavy sleet and wind along roads that went down hill. A lot of schools in CT closed today.
    Officially at BDL 2 inches of sleet happened.

  11. A heavy mist is going by in waves pushed by the wind. It is interesting to watch. At first I thought it was a kind of fog since it is moving parallel to the ground.

  12. This is tough to move. Its like moving concrete. The good news is once this the treatments get put down and the sleet is cleared the roads improved. Hopefully the last batch of this storm that gets us will be rain so far only Northwest Hills of CT showing anything frozen with the rest of plain rain.

  13. does anyone know what the snow totals were for new york state and northern new england? I can never find the reports

  14. Thanks TK. Hope you feel better!

    High uncertainty in the forecast going forward, but I generally agree with TK’s thoughts. The mild pattern drags on for a few more days with the small disturbance and rain showers on Thursday. Turning cooler (no bitter cold) and dry for the 6-10 day period. Then we hit major model disagreement beyond day 10. Hard to put a confident outlook for February together right now. Distinctly different solutions on the ensembles of the GFS, ECMWF, and CMC. My best guess would be that we go into a more variable pattern with alternating bouts of warm and cold, and as TK is already highlighting I would watch around 2/5-2/7 for a storm threat. I have some suspicion that the prevailing February pattern may be something like the December pattern, with alternating cold/warm (maybe favoring the cold a little more) and a prevailing storm track (but not necessarily all the significant storms) to the west of us. Snowfall near average.

  15. Thanks all! Yes through genetics I have somewhat sensitive sinuses especially at the end of a cold virus. Thanks mom! 😉

  16. I have a gut feeling that this pattern will change at some point, but I’m not confident we can make it to the yearly average. Hopefully we manage to get one big regionals storm this year, the last one didn’t even give us half a foot outside of 95.

  17. Still a long way to go, but now our Early February Snow threat has come a tad earlier,
    ie 2/5 instead of 2/6, and by way of the Lakes as this season’s typical storm track:

    A LAKES CUTTER!!!! what else would it be. Why waste the cold if the storms are
    going to track down the Lakes bowling alley?

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2017012412&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=300

    Did I ever mention that I HATE LAKES CUTTERS!!!! ??? I guess not. 😀

  18. Thanks, TK. Hope your sinuses improve.

    My biggest disappointment this winter has been having several nor’easters produce just rain at the coast. When it’s in the 30s and low 40s and it rains it’s about as bad as it gets in terms of weather, in my humble opinion. The one positive is that the rain we’ve been getting is filling up our reservoirs, rivers, and water table beneath the ground.

    My guess is February will not bring much snow or cold. I don’t consider days in the 30s and nights in the 20s particularly cold, and I think that the parameters for snow just aren’t there, whether it’s a positive NAO, progressive storm systems, no blocking, marginal cold. Remember those silly tweets Bastardi and others sent a couple of weeks ago?

  19. I woke up to quite a bit of water in my basement for the first time in awhile, but thankfully the water “just missed”my heating system. Whew!! Hopefully we don’t get too much more rainfall today.

    I guess it is safe to say that our long term drought is now definitely over! Of course from now on I am going to have to keep a closer eye on the basement every time it rains through the spring.

    1. Actually, I don’t believe the drought is over. But, we’ve made good progress.

      I’m sorry to hear about your water woes. Our building had to purchase a new sump pump and I do think it’s had a work out recently as our boiler room often floods a bit.

      1. Seriously,

        I don’t mind true Meteorologists expressing their thoughts
        on social media (right or wrong), it is the NON-MET outlets that go off the deep end and spew garbage that bother me.

    2. Do you have to follow the mets to read what they say? I only use FB and know you do have to follow there. I don’t use the others so am not sure.

  24. Actually he’s really good with little or no hype. It’s not fair to lump them all in because of a few of them.

  25. What all do respect Ryan Hanrahan is a good young meteorologist that does hype things. If you read the tweet he says small chance for something happening. He did not say something like blockbuster snowstorm coming early next week.

  26. Sue I was thinking the same thing. The timing has moved from the weekend to Monday.
    Hopefully TK will chime in soon.

    1. Still watching that period. The upper levels support the potential but not sure if it will translate to something at the surface yet.

      Been calling it a “watch period” all along. Still nothing solid, but the threat is certainly not absent at this point.

  27. To be honest, I share the same concern as Cohen. The pattern “changes” but I’m not sure it completely holds. I think it keeps trying to go back but is battled. The colder may win out a little more in the next couple weeks (starting this weekend) but will not likely be persistent at all.

  28. What I’ve been noticing this winter is that even the polar regions of North America have experienced above to well-above average temperatures. And this pattern has persisted all winter. While there have been periodic short-lived pushes of cold air across the north-central part of the continent, the Siberian cold has struggled to spread and persist, and there isn’t whole lot of time left for it to do so. While we can have snow without serious cold highs to our north, it’s harder in SNE. This is why I think that we’ll continue to see mixed bag storms, marginal cold, and practically no ice on our waterways.

      1. Yes, they have. And I believe they’ll continue to do okay. The pattern is fairly active and there’s enough cold air for snow in central and northern NE.

    1. Yes, Parents were down there for about two weeks, They had the best weather that area has seen since before Christmas they were told to see the Grand Canyon , they were under winterstorm warnings the night they left and for most of that week they had snow coming in.

        1. They went up to Sedona, Grand canyon and a bunch of other places in the area, I know they by passed a few ski areas.

  30. 1.36″ of precip since midnight. 4.78″ for the month at my house.
    So if it can’t snow for you guys, at least some areas are getting beneficial water.

  31. JP Dave .. This is a reply to the comment about Cohen’s and mine shared concerns.

    Actually, it may go back and forth. I think we have a couple significant snow events ahead before we enter the final days of winter…

  32. Hmmm…
    Mon and Tue…
    Final kicker trof will be rotating out of the Hudson Bay region
    Sun evening into Mon. While little increase in overall POPs is
    expected once again due to little increase in overall moisture,
    will need to watch coastal redevelopment which may slide a bit
    further N than current models project thanks to increasing heights
    as the shortwave digs the trof upstream. Otherwise, cold air
    expected with high pres to the N-NW and H92 temps dropping as low
    as -10C to -12C. This could yield highs only in the 30s, while
    mins drop into the low 20s. Warming somewhat on Tue with
    increasing heights.

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