Wednesday Forecast

97 Comments

7:14AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 25-29)
Low pressure finally pulls away and high pressure builds in from the west today with dry weather, but low pressure will then track north of the region Thursday bringing mild air and rain showers. After that we trend toward more seasonable cold during the Friday-Sunday period with mainly dry weather, but there still remains one wild card of an approaching upper trough later in the weekend and will watch for that to kick off the threat of snow showers.
TODAY: Clouds dominate the morning and any drizzle ends eastern coastal areas. Sun dominates afternoon. Highs 39-46. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Chance of light rain after midnight. Lows 35-42 evening, rising overnight. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain early. Chance of rain showers in the afternoon. High 46-54. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 30-38. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind WNW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 22-30. Highs 32-40.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows 20-28. Highs 32-40.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 30-FEBRUARY 3)
Watching for a potential snow event January 30 and/or 31, otherwise a couple episodes of snow showers possible from passing disturbances in an overall dry and seasonably chilly pattern.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 4-8)
Again overall pattern looks more seasonably chilly and will watch for a couple snow/mix threats during this period.

97 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  3. I really don’t see much opportunities for a snow storm until just after the Super Bowl. The GFS has signaled this for quite some time now, but flipped back and forth from a coastal to a cutter. This winter is no where near as bad as 2011-2012 as far as lack of snow goes, but it’s pretty frustrating that any time we get snow it’s almost instantly gone and like JP I’d rather it be 70 than have the up and downs but mainly on the warmer side of pattern we are in now. Let’s hope February and March can turn things around before we start running out of time

      1. I wish I could, but I just don’t have it in me. I love snow and there’s just a peacefulness to it. When we are in the midst of a snowstorm we are forced to slow down and remove ourselves from the daily grind. There’s nothing better than being out during a snowstorm and just being in the quiet of it all. I can’t explain the draw, but it’s just there for me. Everything else is just part of the day to day.

        1. What a GREAT visual of the feelings a snowstorm fosters. I actually felt myself take a deep, calming breath. Thank you!

          As you know, I agree with TK with regard to loving the up and down pattern. However, like TK, I think Mother Nature could toss anything at it and we’d enjoy. (Sorry, TK, don’t mean to speak for you).

          I do find peace most everywhere, but I think you may well be correct about the deepest peace being in the middle of a snowstorm.

            1. another ahhhhhh visual…..Thank you, MassBay…….

              or the birds singing a welcome for spring or the smell of autumn.

              Darn but we live in a beautiful corner of the world.

  6. Good morning and Thank you TK.

    Now that we had our “storm”, it’s rather tranquil.
    For the average person, this Winter hasn’t been bad at all.
    For a snow lover, well, not so good.

    Looking at the Euro, I see why you are watching 1/30-1/31. The way things
    have been going, whatever develops, IF anything develops, will stay off shore.
    I’ll be doing my snow dance, most likely to no avail. The 500 mb flow so far looks far more threatening than the surface. 😀

    The 6Z GFS version of the 2/6 system takes it South of us giving us a light-moderate snow event. Plenty of time on this one. At least it has consistently been there run after run in one form or another.

  7. You know it’s been a mild winter when you see as much open pond water as you do right now. Especially in the interior

    1. Indeed. I’ll add one more thing. Even my wife was commenting last evening.
      I have NEVER seen the grass so lush and green this time of year. NEVER!

      Oh and one more thing, I am sure it has happened before, but my memory escapes me. I don’t ever recall the ocean temperature being this mild on
      January 25th. Boston buoy, 16 NM Due East of Boston as of a short while ago:

      Water Temperature (WTMP): 45.1 °F

      That is truly amazing and very indicative of how mild it has been. Of course it says much about how mild Autumn was as well.

      That HAS to be 7 Degrees ABOVE average IF not a bit more.

      1. Yeah, the sod is soft right now. Sun angle is coming back too OS. 30 more days and you’re really going to start to feel it on your car dashboard.

  8. I find it interesting that snow events are always “threats” but rain events are always “certainties” no matter how long range.

    1. I hear you, but I think it is more selective memory. It just seems that way.
      IF a rain event becomes a miss, who gives a crap. When a snow event misses,
      all of us snow lovers have a hissy fit!

  10. The Feb 5/6th storm is still there on the GFS, I really think time period of most potential for snow..it has a small clipper ahead of it on Saturday

  12. re: 2/5,2/6

    TOO far in the future to know anything other than that something “possibly” could be
    brewing for that time period. Each run has been different. Continue to monitor
    and hopefully all will become clearer with time.

      1. Nothing happening on the GFS, CMC actually shows something on wed/thurs…..I think to TKs point there are things going on in the atmosphere that would support something it’s just a matter of it all coming together and we may not see much if anything on the models at all or until we get a little bit closer

  13. CMC shows a bulls eye next Wed and Thurs for eastern SNE. 6 plus inches. GFS does not show anything for that time frame but does show a minor system later next week 1-2 inches.

  14. We had a major snow event right after the Patriots won their last Super Bowl two years ago. Maybe a good omen? 🙂

  15. I know the Pats fan who are teachers and students would be very happy with a snow day after the Super Bowl since the game usually goes past 10pm.
    I wish the Super Bowl would be Presidents Day weekend where most people are off the next day. The day after the Super Bowl is the biggest call out day from work of the year.
    Eliminate some of the preseason games add two regular season games and you could have that Super Bowl on Presidents Day weekend.

      1. That is a surprise. I know it is a Federal paid holiday. Do most businesses no longer offer it? I’ve been self employed for too many years so have lost touch.

            2. No I’m not. They pay me very well, and I get 7 weeks vacation since I’ve been there for 18 years.

            2. Me either but then…I’m self employed. But is it the norm now? It used to be that companies were quite generous with holidays. Although, corporate America is no longer what it used to be so this made me curious.

              1. My wife used to work for the state and she got every single holiday off, including marathon monday. I’ve always worked private sector and it’s rare these days to get the what I call “auxiliary” holidays off (Patriots Day, Columbus Day, Veterans Day, MLK Day, etc.). They do give us 2 floating anytime holidays of our choice so I usually take them on 2 of those holidays.

  16. I find it interesting that pro football is the only sport that almost everyone celebrates its championship game (The Super Bowl) whether it involves your team or not or if you don’t have a team at all. I like SB Sunday as well even if the Patriots aren’t in the big game.

    1. Xmas eve and new yrs eve is a regular day unless you take a V-day. Saturday holiday is Friday and Sunday Monday’s .

    2. I have ALL of them, including St. Patrick’s Day, Patriot’s Day and Bunk Hill Day, and the day after Thanksgiving. 😀

          1. Government employee?
            We do get Patriots Day off. Go figure. But, its hard to get into town on that day so that’s why we get the day off.
            But like I said, I cant complain since my senority gives me the max days off. And one of the weeks is the week between Christmas and NY. We have company wide shut down that week.

            1. Nope, Not a government employee. 😀

              I work for a non-profit who receives most of its funding from the State of Massachusetts. If State employees get a Holiday, we do as well and sometimes an additional one. I don’t get 7 weeks vacation, but do get 5 weeks.

  18. I agree with that statement. Hockey baseball or basketball if your team is eliminated or not in the playoffs or does not make the championship round most people unless there big hockey baseball or basketball fans don’t watch the playoffs or championship round.
    Football most people watch the playoffs or Super Bowl even if there team is not there. I watched all the playoff games including the heart breaking loss by my Cowboys and I will watch the Super Bowl even though my team is not in it.

    1. JJ, for baseball, most people will watch the World Series. I will NOT (unless the RedSox are in it), but most folks will.

  19. If Price could pitch well in the postseason for once in his career you maybe seeing your Red Sox in a World Series this year. I think its them or Cleveland will represent the American League.

  21. Thank you, TK.

    JJ, this year the only playoff game worth watching to the neutral observer was the Cowboys-Packers game. It was a classic. I thought every other game was non-competitive, and some of them were really poorly played games (similar during the regular season). I watch and enjoy seeing the Patriots win, but that’s because I am a Patriots fan. To an indifferent fan the playoff games – from wild card weekend to the conference championships – were the opposite of thrilling. This year was not a shining moment for the NFL. I do realize the NFL is wildly popular, but they’ve got to have better football in the coming years and more competitive playoff games. Interest will wane otherwise.

    Go For Snow, I so much agree with your description of the quiet that snow can provide. It was a blessing in 2015 to have a month of peace and quiet on the streets of Boston. Snow muffles the annoying sounds of cars.

      1. I was a paper boy growing up (not many of those around nowadays). Delivered the Globe on my bike that had several baskets (and I had a bag slung over my shoulder). I remember not being able to deliver the paper during the storm and for a few days after the storm. I finally got a chance to sleep in, rather than my usual 5am wake-up call. And yes, everything was so quiet. Just the way I like it.

  22. Well, the cold snap is coming to an end in Holland. A gradual return to the prevailing southwesterly will begin in earnest tomorrow and by the weekend it’ll be in the 40s, light rain, etc … They’ve had a nice 2-week stretch of cold with some snow, skating on the canals, and lots of sun (rarity in Holland in January).

  23. This first playoff year in football where I could remember a lot of games that did not have any drama late in the game. Only two games did have late drama the Packer Cowboys and Steelers Chiefs game. The NFL ratings during the regular season were down this year. Some say it had to do with the election. Lets see next season what those ratings show. A lot of the Thursday games were matchups that to me were not that exciting. Browns Ravens Jaguars Titans to name a few.

    1. I guess one could include the Steelers-Chiefs, but I just didn’t think it was a compelling game at all. I expected more.

      The breaks in football have become intolerable in my opinion: Reviews that take forever, incompetent officials (some of whom should not be officiating), constant barrage of mindless commercials at predictable and unpredictable times. The game itself is great. But, it’s often excruciating to watch. In fact, I haven’t been able to watch a single game – including the Patriots – from start to finish this year.

  26. The light and shadows have definitely changed in the last couple of weeks, now that the sun is finally out!

    Here are some numbers I crunched today:

    This is the last week of 7 am or later sunrises and 5 pm or earlier sunsets. We won’t see a 7 am or later sunrise until October 17!

    We (Boston ~ Logan) are at +1.49″ normal precip for the young year.
    We are nearly +1″ since December 1.
    Long way to go with the long term drought. I don’t know what the definition of long term is, but I remember Harvey or Eric saying last fall that we were – ~40″ for the last five years.
    I did notice that the Taunton River looked very healthy this morning.

    We are at #5 of the least snowiest Boston winter on record. (Don’t want to make anyone mad with that one!)

    Today is school day #90 with 90 more to go. No snow days. We had no snow days on this date in 2015. I teased my seniors (who don’t make up snow days because they graduate before the end of the school year) and then it snowed for three straight weeks!
    I have learned my lesson (no pun intended by a teacher) and have kept my mouth closed so far. Last day of school right now is Friday, June 16.

    Red Sox pitchers and catchers report in 18 days.

    Super Bowl LI: Patriots favored by 3 points.

    Some numbers for you for today: 01-25-17

  28. Just saw the post and breaking news about Mary Tyler Moore.

    I love (still do) The Mary Tyler Moore Show. Brilliant actor.
    Themes in that show and her career affected and changed women’s lives for the better in the 1970s.

  29. Mary Richards: Oh Rhoda, chocolate doesn’t solve anything.
    Rhoda Morgenstern: No Mare, cottage cheese solves nothing; chocolate can do it

  30. Chuckles the Clown: [attributed] A little song, a little dance, a little seltzer down your pants.

      1. You both have me laughing so hard that I have tears……some happy and some sad but all in tribute to a remarkable lady.

  31. Interesting little tidbit from the NWS discussion this afertnoon and concerns the 30th/31st.

    Mon and Tue…
    Final kicker trof will be rotating out of the Hudson Bay region
    Sun evening into Mon. While little increase in overall POPs is
    expected once again due to little increase in overall moisture,
    will need to watch coastal redevelopment which may slide a bit
    further N than current models project thanks to increasing heights
    as the shortwave digs the trof upstream.

    I think TK gave them a heads up. Either that OR they are more in tune than I give them credit for sometimes.

  33. We’re running at about +6 to +7 degrees for January in the Boston area. We’ll keep that theme going for the next couple days, before we finally cool down over the final two days of the month. I don’t think it will be the warmest January on record for most places, but it’ll be up there. I predicted near record warm very early in the month, so I’m happy to see I did pretty well with that. I’d figured we might have gotten a few individual days even warmer than what we had, which really could’ve pushed the departure up, but we were able to get close just through the persistence of the warmth.

    For February, the trend in the 11-16 day forecast has been colder, and I think that’ll generally be the way to go over the first 10-14 days of February, but I’m very uncertain on whether the cold will persist beyond then.

    1. Exceptional article. Mac worked, through his company, with Big Creek.

      As an aside, he could never understand why CA was not investing more in desalinization plants…..although I believe they started. I just have not followed.

  35. According to Eric, the next opportunity for a storm is next Wednesday. He has a 40 degree temp though…not too promising for snow with a number like that obviously.

    1. I wouldn’t worry too much about his forecast high temperature for day 7 with or without a storm threat.

  36. I think we could have a situation in which we see a few clippers and one or two of the several coming down could turn into something more potent

  39. Today’s storm surge was still almost 2.5ft at this morning’s high tide. Had this storm come later this week tides would have been another foot hogher than they were.

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