Thursday Forecast

64 Comments

7:26AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 26-30)
A warm front brought some light rain to portions of southern New England overnight. A cold front will create some rain showers today, but it will also be quite mild ahead of the front. When we get to Friday, a cooling trend will commence and last the remainder of the period, as we get into a northwesterly air flow and colder air slowly drains out of Canada. Disturbances can create a few rain/snow showers Friday, and a few snow showers Sunday-Monday, and we’ll also have to watch for a possible offshore storm Sunday and/or Monday. Current indications are that this would occur too far offshore to impact the region, but should be watched in case it ends up closer than expected.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers. High 46-54. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 30-38. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated rain/snow showers. Highs 38-45. Wind WNW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-30. Wind WNW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 32-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows 20-28. Highs 32-40.
MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows 18-26. Highs 30-38.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 31-FEBRUARY 4)
Additional disturbances may bring a risk of snow or snow showers sometime in the January 31-February 1 time frame, then fair weather returns. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 5-9)
Briefly milder early in the period, a mid period risk of rain/snow, then fair and colder later weather following.

64 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

    1. I’d rather have this mildish weather than the in between, but windy weather tomorrow and Saturday.

  6. Thanks, TK.

    Ho hum in the weather department. Uneventful around here and looks to stay that way for the time being. Not so uneventful in California. Spoke to someone yesterday who said that the Bay Area had received rain every day for a 14 day stretch this month. All that rain on the coast turned into very heavy snows inland. This is good news for that part of the world.

      1. No exceptional drought in California anymore! First time in close to 3 years I believe.

        Big improvements in our area as well.

  8. Good morning and than you TK.

    Euro wants to redevelop a clipper just South of us on Wed-Thur 2/1-2/2.
    Pretty nice snow maker as depicted. Still a week off, so anything can happen.
    But for amusement only, here is the snow map:

    http://imgur.com/a/mSpce

    fwiw, liquid qpf is in the range of .8 to 1.1 inch.

    2. Canadian had that yesterday and then sort of lost it. The models are struggling with which piece of energy swinging down with have the best chance at redeveloping.

      1. Let’s see IF the 12Z Euro still has it. The fact that TK didn’t
        say too much in his outlook ( Additional disturbances may bring a risk of snow or snow showers sometime in the January 31-February 1 time frame) has me concerned that this
        might be a fantasy.

  9. The storm on the Euro is an outlier, among other guidance but also most of the Euro ensembles. I’d be surprised if it were still there in that form on the 12z run.

    We’re entering a rather tranquil pattern, something we haven’t had much of this winter even though the snow numbers have been low. Cooler (not cold) and drier with only scattered snow showers as TK has forecast. Next bigger storm chance centered around 2/6-2/7. My very early thinking on how that plays out goes back to something we saw a lot of in December. We may see a sharper cold shot around 2/4-2/5, only to have the potential storm track to our west and bring in the mild air with an ice/rain risk. But we’ve got many days to refine that. For now we’ll enjoy the quiet 🙂

    1. Then, I take it you totally disagree with the NWS assessment below?
      OR do you somewhat agree, but lean away from the Euro solution?

      If for one, would like to see a similar outcome on the 12Z run, but I do fear
      it will be gone. We’ll know in several hours. 😀

      1. I think they did a good job going over all the possibilities. The Euro ensembles, with a few exceptions, don’t lend as much support to the 0z operational solution as that discussion may lead you to believe. For a week out, the 500mb setup on the Euro and GFS looks pretty similar to me. It becomes more a matter of which model is translating that forecast to the surface forecast better, since those solutions are very different. To see a favorable redevelopment setup, I’d like to see a deeper, more westward positioned upper trough. The current setup would seem to favor a weak parent low passing near or north of us, with potential redevelopment much too far offshore to impact us. Even the Euro solution seemed to rely heavily on an inverted trough, which as I’ve said is a very low probability event. But we’ll watch it, plenty can change at that long a lead time.

        1. Thank you for your insight. We’ll see how it plays out.
          I don’t like outliers, no matter which model it might be.

          I like some model consensus with minor individual differences, of course.

          It’s kind of a red flag when there is an outlier, however,
          given that the outlier is the Euro, it does give one pause.

          IF the 12Z has it, it will start to get more interesting, but
          even then, that is only 2 runs and we’d like to see it more than that, so we’ll want it there on the 0Z run as well. A tall order this far out. 😀

  10. Nice NWS discussion on possible events Wed/Thu 2/1,2/2 as per the EURO snow map
    above. So there is something to this and needs to be monitored. Still may not happen as per GFS. Interesting, none-the-less:

    Wed and Thu…
    Due to the uncertainty in wave interaction, an arctic wave out of
    the NW Territories/Yukon will be sliding into the region with a
    clipper system in tow. While both ensembles and operational
    guidance suggest secondary coastal development due to the arctic
    intrusion associated with the clipper/wave, they disagree on how
    this occurs. The GFS operational run suggests the secondary
    development is across the Gulf of Maine/Bay of Fundy, while the
    ECMWF is much further S with a low pres potentially crossing near
    the 40/70 benchmark. Ensembles lie both within and some outside of
    this envelope. Orientation of high pres associated with the
    ridging between the exiting wave in this new wave will also impact
    both the potential low pres track and the availability of colder
    air. Due to uncertainty with the wave interacting with the S
    stream, as well as the high pres center, it is too difficult to
    claim one of these as the best possible outcome, however it bears
    watching as the ECMWF and some ensemble members could produce a
    moderate to high impact on S New England.

  11. The core area of cold is not going to penetrate SNE much. I do think NNE gets some `real’ cold the coming weeks, especially Eastern areas that have already had plenty of cold and snow (eg, Aroostook county). And for even colder climes head due north from Aroostook county about 250 miles.

    1. I think that’s the system TK has been looking for. And notice the 500mb setup on that one. Much more in line with what I look for in a redevelopment setup.

  14. 12Z GFS continues the theme of a system for 2/5-2/6.

    It Heads for the Eastern Lakes in Western PA and NY.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2017012612&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=252

    And then redevelops South of SNE

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2017012612&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=264

    Since the model run is at 12 hour increments at this time, it does not show very well
    the complex interactions taking place as the energy is transferred. There could be a brief mix period in there, a dry slot or who knows what. When I look at the snow map (Kuchera) for that time period, it is remarkably unimpressive:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2017012612&time=72&var=ASNOWI&hour=300

    Based on the surface chart, one would expect MORE snow than that. I wonder if
    a boundary layer issue exists? Or some sleet? I don’t know. AS I said, who knows
    what is going on in that 12 hour period between those maps?????

      1. Yes, I can see that, BUT not by much at all.
        Just don’t know how high it gets before energy completes
        the transfer. Even for inland areas, snow is minuscule.

  16. re: 1/30-1/31
    Euro has system, but keeps it just far enough off shore as to NOT
    affect us at all. Close, but no cigar. I guess it is worthy of monitoring for now.

  17. So much for the 0Z Euro re: 2/1-2/2

    As feared, POOF, no storm. A little redevelopment, too little too late with
    nothing but a few snow showers or flurries. 😀

  18. 12Z Euro re: 2/5-2/6

    It has a system over central Oklamhoma and Kansas on 2/5.
    500mb pattern looks to take this system into the Lakes. If so, that would figure.

    We shall see with future runs.

  20. All we are seeing with the medium range models is them trying to feel out all the individual shortwaves. This is something I pointed out we needed to look for specifically around the transition time of the pattern. It’s always an “issue” but even more so during transitional patterns, and we’ll be in a transitional pattern for the next 1 to 2 weeks as it goes colder, then briefly warmer, then colder again.

    The threat is still there in the 29th-30th time frame.

  21. Now, I don’t often wish for any particular kind of weather. It’s not really in my nature. I accept whatever nature has to offer. A mild winter is not annoying. It’s a mild winter. A snowy winter is just what it is. Good, bad, ugly. It’s nature, and it exists.

    But, I really hope we have decent weather around the February 10-12 period, because I am flying to Florida in the early morning hours of February 10, and flying back early evening on February 12. I’d like smooth travel please. 😀

    2. We’ll arrange for it. …

      I just left a voicemail with God, asking for clear skies and no wind in Boston and Florida between the 10th and 12th of February. I’ll let you know if he calls back.

      1. Well my phone just rang, but the caller ID said it was coming from “Washington DC” …………..

          1. Well I know that. But something tells me if God was calling anybody, the caller ID was not going to be coming from DC…

            2. I’m not saying anything. I’m not saying anything. I’m not saying anything.

              Darn that was really difficult for me.

  23. Sunny and lovely in Merrimack, NH this afternoon. We had some brief showers in the late morning, but clear skies after.

  24. God just called and left me a voicemail. We seem to play a lot of phone tag these days. He sounded cautiously optimistic about the 10th to 12th of February. He told me in a vaguely Yiddish accent, “Joshua, I’m vorking on it … you vant an area of high pressure over southern New England, and also one over Florida? … Let me see vat I can do for you, my friend.”

    1. That must have been taken in the lush tropical winter paradise known as North Attleboro. 😉

      (Just kidding)

  30. Not that anyone is awake here 😉

    Some wind happening out there. Just had gust into mid 20s…yea, not terrible but still fun

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