Sunday Forecast

71 Comments

2:23AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 29-FEBRUARY 2)
A cold front moves northwest to southeast across New England today but will have very little moisture to work with. Snow showers that occur in the mountains to the north and west will likely never make it into southeastern New England. What the front will do is bring colder air in for the start of the new week and the last couple days of January. A low pressure area developing south of Long Island Monday will track east northeastward, passing mostly south of New England, but may be close enough to clip Nantucket with some snow/mix. A clipper low pressure system will come along Tuesday with the treat of some light snow and minor accumulation. This will be an elongated system and will hang around into Wednesday with some snow showers. Dry and colder weather is expected Thursday with a strong northerly air flow from Canada.
TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty, shifting to NW late.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY: Sun and high clouds most areas, but thicker clouds along the South Coast with a risk of some snow/mix Nantucket. Highs 32-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY NIGHT: Decreasing clouds. Risk of snow with minor accumulation Nantucket early. Lows 15-22. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Periods of light snow with minor accumulation. Highs 30-38. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows 20-28. Highs 32-40.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 15-22. Highs 28-35.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 3-7)
Fair and cold weather February 3-5. Watching a storm threat for later in the period, February 6-7.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 8-12)
Temperatures near to below normal with a couple disturbances bringing minor precipitation threats.

71 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

    2. I agree with Vicki.

      WELCOME Oceanair NS.

      Now inquiring minds would like to know what the NS is?
      Is that Nova Scotia? Or it is something else like your initials for example?

      Either way welcome and enjoy.

        1. Thank You. Duh, And I couldn’t figure that out?
          WOW! I am deficient this morning. Well I’m deficient all of the time.

        2. It can be a bit scary how some of us think alike. But it seems you have been following WHW so know that. You are brave to wade into this…..just kidding. You can tell we are always excited to have a new family member

          My mind went to Nova Scotia also. North shore didn’t come to mind even though we have spent much time there in Gloucester and Rockport. Good harbor beach is probably my all time favorite but don’t tell Humarock….it is a guarded secret. 😉

          1. Yes, have been reading for years. Great source for weather information, especially the ‘why’ behind the weather.

            All time favorite? Possibly Wingaersheek, or even Plum Island . Both are white sand, quiet and windwept on winter days.

            1. Spent a lot of time at Wingaesheek as a youth…also Cranes. Lovely area for beaches. Good Harbor was often an evening picnic trip followed by a trip to Bearskin neck for ice cream and a stroll. I think it wss the proximity of the two that drew us to GH

  2. TK, thank you! Interested in the 6th-7th since I am thinking of a trip.

    If you have time for a Super Bowl forecast … assuming the stadium roof is open … I and a lot of others would be interested.

    Thanks again.

  3. Thanks TK.
    6z GFS for tomorrow gets a touch of snow into southern CT RI and Cape and Islands. Minor system for Tuesday. 997 mb low near benchmark day after the Super Bowl producing accumulating snow. 0z CMC has a snow to rainorama for same time period.

    1. For which period?

      I see the EURO as not even on this planet with the feb 6/7 system. It is suppressed so far South that it would affect Bermuda. Then it has a new
      system for 2/8 that is cutting through the Lakes. So we simply cannot win.

      WIDE Divergence among the models for that time period. Very very wide.

      Waiting on the 12Z runs.

        1. That’s just a clipper to the North and is not the system
          we have been discussing nor is it the threat TK
          has been discussing. 😀

            1. Yes, again this is a New system and not
              the one TK was discussing as the threat.
              The threat was coming out of the deep South.

              No one is denying that the Euro has what you are depicting. It’s just an additional system. The one for 2/6 passes ots well South.

              I would show you, but I think the owner
              of my Euro site has made a technical change. I can no longer save an image
              of a chart. I mean I can save it, but it is now blank. So much for sharing this cool stuff.

              That cutter on 2/8 is demoralizing. Finally we get the cold in here and that crap has to happen*@#&*!&@#*(!*@#&

              Hopefully, since it is 10 days out, it will change significantly.

              Waiting on the 12Z runs.

  5. February 6-7 this year falls on the exact same days of the week (Monday-Tuesday) as in 1978…and we all know what happened then. 😉

      1. Would be nice, but I don’t see that happening, however, with the current model divergence, who knows.

        One thing for sure, we will have the cold in place for a change.

  7. Thanks TK !

    Looks like another upcoming school week that we can look at and reasonably say that we won’t have any snow days. It has been nice for having a flow to learning with no interruptions.

    1. You got it, Tom! Just started a new semester with three classes of new students. Two years ago, with all of the snow days, it felt like I saw the kiddos about five times before parent-teacher night in March.
      Try having a conversation with parents about children you hardly know!

      No snow days heading into the first week of February. I am telling my students “Focus on the last day of school, Friday, June 16!!!”

      I was a senior in high school in 1978 and I am a Hornet, Mansfield High School.
      Mansfield Public Schools had school on Monday, February 6. We had an early release at 11 am because of the blizzard. It was already snowing very heavily at that hour. We had two weeks of no school from Tuesday, February 7-Friday, February 17 AND THEN WE HAD FEBRUARY VACATION!
      Don’t forget what was first called The Blizzard of 1978, the snows of January 20-21 which people forget when thinking about the Winter of 1978.
      And, because I was a senior, I got out of school in the middle of May and graduated on time on June 4.
      My younger brothers had to make up the time at the end of June.
      Governor Dukakis did waive five days from the 180 school days for the state of emergency from February 6-10.
      Wonderful memories from an historic storm and time!

      We have had two snow days on Super Bowl Monday in 2015 and 2016.
      Maybe three this year????

      I am going to try to find DVD highlights from the Patriots’ four previous Super Bowl wins today and binge watch football.

      Enjoy your Sunday, everyone

    2. I loved snow days when I was in high school, gave us and the teachers a break from each other especially January and Feb, 😛

      1. though of course when I was in 11th we had a bunch of snow and a bunch of snow days, Next year when I was a senior a 3 days in october

  8. 12z NAM showing a general 1-2 inches for SNE for Tuesday.
    12z GFS shows half inch for same time period.

  9. My bad with the 12z GFS. Its bring the minor snowfall in the evening and at night for Tuesday with the GFS. NAM is during the day. So some timing differences but amounts in the 1-2 inch range on both 12z runs of the American models.

  11. Early thoughts on Tuesday: Coating to 1 inch south coast to southern two thirds of MA, 1-3 inches northern third of MA and southern NH.

      1. So far it looks a little damp with rain showers and maybe a thunderstorm in the area. With some luck this system is a bit faster and out of there for the balance of the day, but far too early to really time it yet. Big margin for error this far out.

        1. I believe NRG Stadium in Houston has roof panels that can open and close so weather shouldn’t be an issue for Super Bowl LI.

          Go Pats!

  15. Welcome Oceanair NS
    12z GFS has accumulating snow for SNE for late next Sun night into Mon. This is not a strong storm. It gets stronger once it passes us down to a 995 mb low. It does turn to rain south shore Cape and Islands towards the end of the storm.

        1. Thanks! I actually think we’ll be OK. It looks like a strong system may pass north of here around the 8th or 9th and we may go into a dry/cold stretch for a little bit after that.

          Not sold on that scenario by any stretch yet. I’m flying out pre-dawn of Feb 10 to Florida and returning on the evening of Feb 12.

  16. ECMWF not singing the same tune on the system for February 6 that the other models are. Long way to go though.

  17. Interesting from NWS

    — Changed Discussion —
    1 pm update…

    Snow squalls developing over N/W MA. Evaluating web cams as well
    as the snow squall parameter per local WRF from Burlington (BTV),
    seeing indications that snow squalls will continue ahead of the
    arctic cold front presently situated across the E Great Lakes
    region into Upstate NY (somewhat difficult to resolve). SW flow
    ahead of the front, getting somewhat a better moist fetch with
    surface dewpoints in the upper teens to low 20s in comparison to
    locations upstream. Given the unstable environment discerned from
    12z soundings, would like a more moist environment within the low
    levels as well as some stronger wind flow. Yet aside the radar
    does not lie. Seeing some decent snow showers with significant
    returns out in Albany-land (ALY) and per web cams seeing some
    white-out conditions. Such white-out conditions are possible into
    S New England.

  18. 18z NAM with 3-4 inch range western parts of CT and MA.
    Lot of areas in SNE around that 2-2.5 inch range.

  19. From NWS

    Sunday…

    High pressure starts the day over New England and the West Atlantic,
    with dry weather.

    GFS brings a southern stream shortwave and surface low to the East
    Coast Sunday night. The GFS redevelops the low off our coast,
    bringing us a potential coastal storm. The ECMWF focusses
    development on the northern stream with a low that passes across
    Quebec and swings a cold front through our area. A clear difference
    among the forecast information, leading to low confidence in the
    forecast.

    It is important to note that the predecessor system to this storm is
    currently over the North Pacific, midway between Alaska and Hawaii.
    It has a long way to go just to reach the West Coast, let alone the
    East. At this point we will note low-end chance pops for next Sunday
    night…and allow time for the storm to get closer and into better
    focus.

  20. Even if there are very small accumulations next Monday and/or Tuesday you just know that there are going to be on-air references to 1978 on the tv newscasts. Hard to believe that it has been 39 years and naturally the next year will be the 40th anniversary. Where has the time gone?? I was in my last year of high school and started college that September.

  21. The NRG stadium in Houston has roof panels, but the NFL has rules for roofs in regards to their use given the weather conditions. I believe if they are closed at the beginning of a game … say because it is raining … the roof cannot be reopened during the game if it stops raining.

  22. Answer to yesterday’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    What is Boston’s longest stretch of below 32 degree weather?
    A. 7 days
    B. 12 Days
    C. 17 Days
    D. 22 Days

    The answer is C, 17 days.

  23. An AccuWeather Trivia Quiz (I posted a very similar question a few years ago.)

    What is the shape of most snowflakes?
    A. Pentagonal
    B. Hexagonal
    C. Octagonal
    D. They vary

    Answer later today.

  24. OK, so a couple of things. I know that I shouldn’t look at weather.com, but why, oh why has it decided that I live in Milton, FL. Every single time I open it, it gives me the weather for Milton, Florida! I live a little north of that….

    Vicki and Sue, I see that you are ready to man the hair dryers. Just let me know and I’ll be out there in my rowboat.

  26. Euro and GFS are still dancing with a lot of “stuff” between 6th and the 9th. Things are flipping all over the place. Can see the possibility of redevelopment should any of this ever materialize. It’s just too far off to get any model consistency, let alone consensus.

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