Monday Forecast

145 Comments

7:21AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 30-FEBRUARY 3)
For days on end I was eyeing the possibility of a snow event somewhere in the last 4 days of January. That “event” is actually taking place, but 99% of it is just barely offshore to the south of New England, with the other 1% probably bringing a little mix/snow to Nantucket later today. For the rest of the southern New England region, it’s more dry weather with a seasonable chill to the air. We’re now in a pattern of colder weather compared to what we have seen for most of January, and this will also continue into the first few days of February. A strung out area of low pressure with several centers, kind of a broken up clipper system, will slide east southeastward out of Canada and across New England Tuesday and Wednesday with some light snow and snow showers. This will reinforce the cold air for later this week.
TODAY: Sun and high clouds most areas, but thicker clouds along the South Coast with a risk of some snow/mix Nantucket. Highs 32-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Decreasing clouds. Risk of snow with minor accumulation Nantucket early. Lows 15-22. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Risk of light snow in the afternoon. Highs 30-38. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mainly cloudy. Periods of light snow with minor accumulation. Lows 20-28. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Highs 32-40. Wind N 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 15-22. Highs 28-35.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 13-20. Highs 28-35.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 4-8)
Fair and cold weather February 4-5. Low pressure area may bring snow/mix February 6. Fair weather returns February 7 but is quickly followed by another storm threat February 8.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 9-13)
Temperatures near to below normal with a couple disturbances bringing minor precipitation threats.

145 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  3. Had to fire up the oil today…can’t complain was only on it a few days all month. Total heat spending since November is about 300 bucks!

    1. We have been using oil and so far $135 a month is covering what we have received. We still have a bit more than 1/2 tank. I figure we have used about $400 which isn’t bad for house size. It is the electric that is killing us. We just switched out the six year old water heater for a new one and are monitoring daily kWh usage.

  6. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Nice morning, albeit cloudy. Not much wind. Very pleasant out.
    Yet another Winter day with the light jacket. Heavy Winter coat only
    worn on 4 days so far this Winter. Pathetic. Yet Another Above average day temperature-wise today, even IF High temp is near or below average, the low
    was quite a bit above average.

    I am not sure where January will rank as far as warmth goes, but it will have to
    rank right up there.

    Now what will February bring???

    Hopefully a few systems to get the Snow fall closer to average. I presume we’ll fall
    short in that area.

    One more thing: Kudos to TK re: the storm off shore today.
    He had been eyeing this time period for weeks on end. Amazing. I don’t know how
    he does it.

    Regarding the next threats:

    Tues-Wed Ho Hum an inch or 2 at best? maybe?

    2/6 Models all over the place. We shall see.

    2/8 – Euro has a biggie with primarily RAIN for SNE, however, it has moved considerably East since the previous run. This may be the one to watch.

  7. Hmmm
    From the office I was able to post screenshot of Euro? I wonder if I accidentally
    changed a setting at home? I’ll have to check that out.

    In any case, here is the surface and precip chart for 12Z 2/8. If we can future runs
    to trend this more South and East, we’ll have something. If not, A super RAINFEST!

    http://imgur.com/a/68YkI

    1. Redevelopment South of Block Island, RI. “Should” enhance the snow somewhat with Atlantic moisture available and plenty of cold air around.

        1. The 10:1 ratio map shows less snow, indicative
          of a higher ratio snow event ala the Kuchera Method.

          Ratio looks to be somewhere in the 15:1 to 20:1 range
          comparing the 2 maps.

          1. SREF says ration right at 10:1. Hmmm
            That model always seems to be too low on
            the ratios. Plus current run of SREF
            only has 1-2 inches for us.

            1. Last Clipper I remember was a couple of winters ago–was supposed to be a 1-2 inch storm, ended up dropping around 6 inches in the 128 belt–heaviest right around 3:00 when school dismisses–boy did we have some unhappy parents that afternoon…

              1. They can be tricky at times.
                Most times, they are rather innocuous, however, every now and then, they provide a surprise.

                1. NWS discussion regarding Tuesday…

                  SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/…
                  ***A widespread light accumulating snowfall expected late Tuesday
                  into early Wednesday****

                  Tuesday and Tuesday night…

                  Low pressure will drop southeast from Canada and track west Tue into
                  Tue night, likely passing to the northwest of our region. However,
                  impressive shortwave energy will dive south of southern New England.
                  This will generate a weak wave of low pressure to our south and
                  setup an inverted trough.

                  With that said, expect dry weather to prevail Tuesday morning. In
                  response to the approaching shortwave energy, light snow should
                  develop from southwest to northeast Tuesday afternoon into the early
                  evening. Moist onshore flow and modest lift should allow for
                  periods of light snow to continue across the region Tuesday night.
                  Ptype should be snow for most locations, but enough boundary layer
                  warm air may arrive across the Cape and especially Islands for a
                  change to rain.

                  Overall, it looks like a 1 to 2 inch snowfall for most of the region
                  Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday with localized 3 inch
                  amounts. However, these inverted troughs are very difficult to
                  forecast even in the near term. Will have to watch the exact track
                  of the shortwave energy and potential for an enhanced
                  area of surface convergence. Low level easterly flow, coupled with
                  steep mid level lapse rates/total totals in the 50s will result in
                  the risk for a localized narrow band or two of heavier convective
                  snow. Whether this develops or even ends up across southern New
                  England is impossible to say at this time. However, we will say
                  there is a low risk that a small area or two ends up with a
                  localized band of 4 to 6 inches of snow.

  10. re: Clippers

    I don’t know if any here remember a local meteorologist by the name of
    Roland Boucher?

    https://www.highbeam.com/doc/1P2-8325138.html

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r7ygdgRj8Kk

    http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0450(1985)024%3C0068:RDOSRA%3E2.0.CO%3B2

    Anyway, While attending Northeastern University, I held a COOP position
    with Air Force Cambridge Research Labs at their radar site located at
    the Natick Army Labs Annex which sits over parts of 3 communities, Sudbur, Maynard and Stowe.

    It was at this job, that I worked with Roland Boucher. He was a great guy and knew his stuff. I actually went skiing with him one day in Feb 69, the day of the 1st of 2 big snowstorms that month. We got home to MA after a day of skiing to find 2 feet of
    snow on the ground. Good thing he had 4-wheel drive.

    I digress. The point of all of this was a discussion I had one day with him
    regarding clippers. He told me of one Winter season, where many clippers looked
    to pass harmlessly South of SNE, ONLY to BLOW up and dump a foot of
    snow on SNE. He was very excited talking about that.

    So, I repeat, clippers can be tricky. Most times, not, but occasionally, watch out.
    We have the Atlantic out there AND this Winter season, the waters South
    of SNE are MUCH warmer than average, lending more fuel.

    And one more thing: We have a pretty potent 500 mb flow associated with this clipper:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2017013012&var=VRTHGTGRD_500mb&hour=035

  11. Scott, Thanks for the NWS discussion. I hadn’t even gotten that far this morning.
    PLUS, that discussion did NOT include this morning’s 12Z NAM run, which adds
    fuel to their discussion.

  14. JP Dave…
    RE: January warmth.

    You may have missed the posts on Saturday addressing this. Lots of info there.

    This January will probably land in 11th place.

    1. No, I did not miss that discussion. I found it to be very interesting.
      I just didn’t remember the exact place that we expected it to be.

      11th all time is a decent departure from Normal, BUT at the same time
      not out of the ordinary. 😀 Save for a couple of days, it was more
      like March or even early April than it was January.

  17. Couple more tweets from John Bagioni
    12z NGM suite ups the ante for Tue aftrn snowfall event across SNE; potent dynamics; strg 850-700 fronto action implies 2-4″ or 3-5″ amnts?

    Correction; NAM, not NGM; also, comment of 12z NAM is just that a comment; not my fcst; other mdls need to be assessed, but interesting?

    1. Very interesting, but I am not surprised. Given the GFS is somewhat on board,
      it is almost time to up the amounts forecast. 😀

  19. It appears to me the ever so slight southerly track shift to this clipper is making the difference. With clippers, it’s always better to be north of or at worst at the same latitude as the clipper’s track. Get south of the track and usually, not much snow.

    1. Indeed. Pretty rigorous 500MB associated with this as well.
      Biggest concern is the Warmer than average SSTs South of SNE feeding
      this system.

  20. I would agree with that.
    Too bad the NAO is a positive. I remember in some situations when the NAO was negative and clipper system would hit the coast and slow down and give SNE 3-6 4-8 inch snowfall.

    1. Still could.
      Also, there is a complication as there is a trailing clipper and a Norlun
      could set up between the exiting clipper and the approaching clipper
      to keep snow going even for a longer duration. Unclear how that develops
      or even IF it does develop.

      Stay tuned for future runs.

    1. We posted at the same time. Given it is 7 or 8 days off, that particular run
      does not show a block buster, however, there is still the potential that this could be a Moderate to borderline Major snow storm. Plenty of time to iron out
      the details on this.

  24. 12z GFS also shows another watcher that brings some snow to parts of SNE later next week. Shift that a little further west and things could get interesting.

  26. Thank you, TK!

    Clippers have a way of surprising us.

    I guess I’ll adjust my drive to and from Vermont tomorrow. If I leave really early in the morning and then come back to Boston by, say, 6pm, I should be okay?

    1. Clippers also have a way of dissapointing us as well…too far north, too far south, right over us, etc. We will see one way or the other.

      1. Yes, this is true and that is what contributes to them being
        so tricky.

        I used to have a saying about clippers: “Clippers always track more North than forecast, except when they pass more South”.

        That about covers it.

  28. re: later tomorrow/Wednesday

    12Z Euro has 1.4 inches of snow for Boston. Big woof!

    Is the Euro correct? OR it being a global model, perhaps is missing some subtle
    details that the NAM picks up on? I certainly do not know. IF we are looking
    for a more bullish results, one would want the Euro to be on board and it is NOT.

    So now I look forward to the next suite of runs.

  29. 12Z Euro now has the 2/6 event, but has it pretty far off shore, only close enough
    to provide an inch or 2 of snow. Encouraging just to see it now. Perhaps it will
    trend closer.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2017013012&region=USA&var=PRMSL_msl&hour=168

    Now, we’ll see what it has for 2/8. A Cutter! What else.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2017013012&region=USA&var=PRMSL_msl&hour=216

    Hope that trends towards a coastal or at least coastal redevelopment.

    1. For 2/8 after initial rain and some Snow MA/NH border Northward, the winds
      turn and the 12Z Euro is showing a significant ICE storm for MA, including
      Boston for a period. Again, this is 9-10 days out, so no worries at this time, but
      I find it interesting none-the-less.

    1. No agreement yet. Too far out. Suffice to say, something is a brewing.
      I’d rather snow than rain, but nothing I can do about it. 😀

  31. Two things to certainly watch next week. I am hoping at least one of them turns out to be a snoworama.

  32. Pretty sad state of affairs that the NWS has NOT updated their Winter Weather Page
    and their snow maps since 3:41 AM this morning. Pretty sad indeed.

    Why even have the damn page if it’s never going to be updated. PATHETIC!!!!

      1. That may be, BUT they still should update the map to current
        thinking EVEN if it hasn’t changed. Even if the damn numbers are the same, just to let everyone know where they stand on this
        event. That map is nearly 12 hours old.

        Crap like this REALLY frosts my ass.

  33. This is the year of the 1-3, 2-4.

    That’s my map for the rest of the winter whether it’s one more “storm” or ten more to go.

        1. Yes, but given what you say, we are now in a “new”
          overall pattern, SO just maybe, we can get into something
          a little more serious. Time will tell.

    1. I guess this is OK, however, I “think” I would have gone with 2-4 inches.
      Oh well, it’s NOT up to me. 😀

    1. Still a little more after that. Totals come in very close to the 12Z totals, perhaps a tad less, but certainly in line. 😀

      4. I could get 4 to 5 inches ….. I know, broken record, but I think too high. I liked the snow map this morning, of which was a general 2 inches or so. Unless that clipper undercuts the region, the southern areas are going to see some slight boundary layer modification, which in and of itself should hold down snow amounts.

  38. Watch for some to be very disapointed and some extremely surprised and Happy. Some will see a bit more than being advertised while others get almost nothing…. Some seeing 5 maybe 6 inches while others see maybe a half inch….

    1. Even if that is so, a little more than the coating to 2 inches advertised more recently. In fact the guy on the new NBC affiliate here in Boston last night
      totally and completely poo pooed this event and said maybe a coating
      to 2 inches.

  42. Sorry I’ve been a little M.I.A. today. Had a lot to take care of in work and since then I’ve been cooking homemade chicken soup with Mom. But let’s give credit where it is due. She did 99% of the real work…

    Updated thinking for snow tomorrow late-day and evening: 1-2 inches South Coast, 2-5 inches elsewhere.

    Watch for some potent snow squalls on Wednesday!

    Cold/windy Groundhog Day. More chill Friday through the weekend.

    Snow event Monday Feb 6 – light to moderate possibility but open to less or more depending on track.

    Messy storm potential Wed Feb 8.

    Pattern takes a breath after a cold shot following that, then the back half of the month could get interesting.

    2. No snow when I’m dragged to my in-laws in Florida Feb 19-23–would hate to miss the only big storm of the winter!

      1. 2.5

        And I’m not sure of the timing on the thing for around Monday. May sneak in earlier.

  43. I was looking at graphic Eric Fisher posted on twitter for snowfall for Boston this month. The average is 12.3 inches Boston has 8.3 inches. Lets assume they get two inches. For a warm month the average monthly snowfall won’t be that much below the average. Most of that 8.3 came with the storm we had back on the 7th of January,

  44. I remember back in the winter of 05-06 we had a mild winter but snowfall at Bradley was over 60 inches thanks to two big storms that winter one on Dec. 9th and the other on Feb. 12th. The February 12th was the biggest snowstorm on record with 21.8 inches until the storm we had on January 11-12th which dropped 24.0 inches.
    Just because the winter is mild overall doesn’t mean you can get good snowfall totals in a winter season.

  45. I always go with clippers over performing vs. underperforming. I would bet if we could even look at history of watches and or warning we would end up above those when all said and done.

    1. My thoughts on clippers were described above.
      Very tricky.
      In my humble opinion, they generally underperform, except when they overpeform, then they often really do.

      Either way, it will be fun to watch tomorrow. 😀

  46. Thank you everyone. Great information.

    TK, I apologize. I didn’t catch the time you’d like us to arrive for dinner 🙂

  47. Those snow squalls on Wed will be like tracking thunderstorms in the summer where not everyone town or city will get one but those that do it will pack a punch. Just reading the discussion from Taunton for those squalls on Wednesday if this had been summer we would be looking at some strong to severe storms.

  48. Thanks TK. I think a 1-3″ broad-brush should work out well for this next system, but there may be a narrow west-east band of 3-5″, possibly along or just south of the Pike. NWS numbers look a little too high to me, but I agree with the WWA.

  49. TK – Regarding those Wednesday snow squalls:

    widespread?
    hit or miss?
    more hit than miss?
    more miss than hit?

  50. Harvey has a nice widespread 2-4″ with 1-3″ South Coast which is pretty much in line with TK’s thinking. 🙂

    1. Your early thoughts on that TK? You did say that it would be a “messy” storm.

      Quick snow to rain Boston and the typical snow/ice/rain inland?

    1. WWA

      excerpt

      * ACCUMULATIONS…SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 4 INCHES…WITH 4 TO
      6 INCHES POSSIBLE NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE.

      * TIMING…SNOW DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. A
      BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
      EVENING…ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE WHICH
      WILL IMPACT THE EVENING COMMUTE. SNOWFALL RATES MAY REACH 1 TO 2
      INCHES PER HOUR FOR A BRIEF TIME. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM SOUTH
      TO NORTH OVERNIGHT.

      http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=box&wwa=winter%20weather%20advisory

      This seems a bit excessive, if one believes the 6Z runs, the HRRR and the SREF.

      1. 1-2 inches per hour with this set up???? As much as I would like to see that, it seems a bit much to me. We shall see.

  63. I will be the devils advocate and say I smell a bust…which is good if you like snow as I haven’t been right once this season ha.

    1. You could be correct. Not impressed with what I see. Hope I am wrong.
      Will be reviewing 12z and radars a bit later. signing off for now. :d

  64. Enjoy the snow today. Looking at the GFS UGH!!! Lucky for us snow lovers plenty of time for things to change for next week.

      1. Old salty . Snow next Monday and how is Wednesday looking . You are getting probably at least a solid two tonight so you should be happy .

  65. No changes in my thoughts for today. Widespread 1-3″. Perhaps a narrow 3-5″ band along/just south of the Pike. 2-3″ for Boston.

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